GDT: It's Been So Long Since We've Had a Game

[DaveG]

Well, seeing as how Nemisz is out for the season, yeah, that one probably wouldn't work out so well for us.

 

[What the Faulk]

Yes, I remember you posted this a while back now...thanks for sharing again.

Those on-ice corsi numbers for Semin are misleading...check out his zone starts...63% in the o-zone...by far the highest on the team.

So...is he adding to the team...statistically he is a player getting first line minutes and yielding replacement level production.

If Nemisz or LaRose were swapped for Semin, I doubt the Canes record would be any worse.

I know this isn't what you're talking about, but here he is as a Hurricane:

I can't seem to find a usage adjusted chart that shows just this year. My guess is that the record would be similar because, well, that should be obvious. But you can't just say that favorable zone starts explain good corsi, just like poor deployment doesn't excuse the bad. Zone starts don't matter *that* much, and it's really no different than the other extreme and not looking at them at all. They work in conjunction. If he got, say, Eric Staal deployment, he's still going to be a positive possession player.

I understand the frustration with him this year, but I don't think he's lost something he'll never get back, unless his wrist is that mangled. He'll probably never be Washington Semin, but Carolina Semin has been a pretty productive player for the most part, too.

 

[Ole Gil]

Interesting that people think of ranking in a number of those stats in terms of lines. Why would a 3rd line player have a worse or better corsi than a top line player?

I'd expect that the Corsi would represent the difference between similar players in comparable positions.

So a good top/2nd/3rd line player has a positive corsi. A mediocre top line player has average corsi. A bad top line player has bad corsi.

That of course ignores a lot of other factors. But in terms of comparing apples to apples, this seems like it'd be the case. One of the factors I think we see on the Canes is a 4th line that plays defense so the rest of the people don't have to. I'd expect having a line that takes all defensive zone shifts is going to inflate the Corsi stats of the lines that benefit from not having to. Whether that's a real thing or just in my head, I don't know.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

"Carolina Semin" has put up 97 points in 140 games, a .7 PPG pace, or 57 points over a full season. That's not terrible, but it's not $7 million good. And considering that point total banks on Semin not being injured/scratched at all, it just looks a bit worse.

The issue is that we've basically seen three different versions of the guy in the three years he's been here: Great, sorta good, and god-awful. Fingers crossed that "great" returns at some point.

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

he needs moar russian friends.

 

[GoldiFox]

I think Semin is a lot closer to regaining his top-6 status than being done as a hockey player. Something is clearly off with his offensive game, but it appears to be more mental than physical. Something that he can eventually pick himself up out of.

He has been a disappointment this year but the team as a whole has been a disappointment. Just have to hope they can adequately replace Sekera and Tlusty while adding some NHL-level depth at all positions. Nothing outrageous, just something beyond AHL-level.

 

[DaveG]

I think we honestly have our Tlusty replacement already in Nestrasil. He's not as much of a scoring threat but I think he'll be a better player when it comes to driving possession.

Dude's not a center though, Pete needs to cut that **** asap.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I do think Nestrasil needs to be given more of a chance to see what we've got. He's shown flashes of being a good 2nd/3rd line player, but between the injuries and scratches, it's not been consistent enough.

 

[DaveG]

That's a lot like how Tlusty started out here. Then dude got his shot with Eric and ran with it for a solid couple seasons.

 

[Ole Gil]

I think we honestly have our Tlusty replacement already in Nestrasil. He's not as much of a scoring threat but I think he'll be a better player when it comes to driving possession.

This is insane. At a minimum, optimistic at a level I can not comprehend.

 

[Sens1Canes2]

This is insane. At a minimum, optimistic at a level I can not comprehend.

I had your same thought.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Nestrasil is a fine bottom 6 player. I haven't seen anything out of him at any level to suggest he could find the scoring touch needed to be in the top 6.

 

[bleedgreen]

Netrasil has been a good pick up. Good skill for a big guy, hustles. Not pretty but makes smart plays with the puck and likely has a respectable ceiling offensively. I think he belongs on the third line right now on the wing, probably can fill in higher.