ISS top 30 for January

[Rather Gingerly 1*]

The thing that baffles me most about people who follow hockey prospects is the difference the one single little inch between 5'11'' and 6'00'' makes to them.

I don't know....my girlfriend told me once another inch makes all the difference in the world.

 

[ISS Hockey]

I question a move of 22 places based upon one 6 game tournament. That's the folly of the WJC's if you ask me. Too much stock is put in this tournament.

Exactly.

I don't understand why he was so low on the list to begin with. I heard that some scouts were waiting until they saw him play on the international stage before making any serious judgements, a player tearing it up in the RSL like he was at least should have been in the top-10 before WJC, if not top-5.

Well, I think I've partly answered this elsewhere, but I'll reiterate it and elaborate.

Cherepanov did not rise from 22 to 1 based solely on the world juniors. We admit, we had him ranked too low before the world juniors, but we had limited viewings and we did not feel comfortable moving him up based simply on a few games and some rather impressive stats in the RSL.

So, really, Cherepanov was a 22 with an asterisk if you will. A player that we wanted to see more of before moving him up. We had seen him at two other tournaments before. One where he played well, and another where we thought his centre played better.

I don't say this to sound flippant, but we make sure we've seen a player a lot before moving him up too high. We won't do it based on reputation or stats. That's not the way a scouting service should rank players.

 

[ISS Hockey]

Not responded well in what way, performance since the cut?attitude?

Both, but in our opinion, the two are correlated. Angelo Esposito has convinced us that he has tremendous skating and offensive abilities. Now, he needs to convince us that he has the other prerequisites to make it as a pro player and to be able to apply those talents on a consistent basis.

 

[The Viking Fury]

I don't know....my girlfriend told me once another inch makes all the difference in the world.

 

[Kootenay1]

what ever happened to the EHM 2005 monster Zach Hamill?

Not sure whats so funny.....He's sitting at 10th overall in scoring only six out of the lead. Still a great prospect..Don't let these lists fool you.

 

[pdxshark]

what do you guys think of colton sceviour? I think he's been vastly underrated because he doesnt score goals but the guy is a great forechecker, great penalty killer and one of the best two way forwards i've seen in the WHL this year. I know its not as glamorous as being an elite goal scoring forward like mueller but look at the buffalo sabres, they've made a living off of mostly 2 way players and in todays game, it takes 5 players to play defense. I don't expect him to go in the first round, I just want to know what you guys think of him and if its anything close to what I see.

 

[Slitty]

Well, I think I've partly answered this elsewhere, but I'll reiterate it and elaborate.

Cherepanov did not rise from 22 to 1 based solely on the world juniors. We admit, we had him ranked too low before the world juniors, but we had limited viewings and we did not feel comfortable moving him up based simply on a few games and some rather impressive stats in the RSL.

So, really, Cherepanov was a 22 with an asterisk if you will. A player that we wanted to see more of before moving him up. We had seen him at two other tournaments before. One where he played well, and another where we thought his centre played better.

I don't say this to sound flippant, but we make sure we've seen a player a lot before moving him up too high. We won't do it based on reputation or stats. That's not the way a scouting service should rank players.

One would generally assume Cherepanov to be the easiet to scout out of all the Russian '89s, save for guys like Gratchev, Menshikov, and the Bashkirovs. I guess you concentrate on the minor international tournaments and saw less of Cherepanov due to him being too good to play in competitions such as the World Junior A Challenge? On the whole it is disappointing that you don't watch the Superleague, as international tournaments alone are unlikely to provide enough basis for other guys (Dadonov, Seleznev, Goncharov, etc) with stronger RSL commitments. Do you guys at least follow the Vishaya and Pervaya Liga?

 

[ISS Hockey]

One would generally assume Cherepanov to be the easiet to scout out of all the Russian '89s, save for guys like Gratchev, Menshikov, and the Bashkirovs. I guess you concentrate on the minor international tournaments and saw less of Cherepanov due to him being too good to play in competitions such as the World Junior A Challenge? On the whole it is disappointing that you don't watch the Superleague, as international tournaments alone are unlikely to provide enough basis for other guys (Dadonov, Seleznev, Goncharov, etc) with stronger RSL commitments. Do you guys at least follow the Vishaya and Pervaya Liga?

You completely misunderstood what I wrote.

I said we saw him, we just didn't see him enough to confidently rank him higher. As I said before, we saw him in three international tournaments this year including world junior, but our viewings of him in RSL were limited. He plays in Omsk, which for those who don't know, is in the Siberian Federal District. It's a little off the beaten path, you might say.

I hope this clears things up.

 

[Panopticon]

ISS, can you answer my question about Joonas Jalvanti? Do you have him ranked and if not, how do you see his chances of getting drafted?

 

[ISS Hockey]

Does anyone know if Joonas Jalvanti is ranked at all or does anyone see him getting drafted?

From my point of view he had a pretty good WJC and was one of the better Finnish defenders (outperforming drafted Finn defenders like Leinonen and Lehtivuori and in my opinion he defensively outperformed Seppänen as well) while also being the youngest. I think he's eligible this year for the first time since he's a late 88...

ISS, can you answer my question about Joonas Jalvanti? Do you have him ranked and if not, how do you see his chances of getting drafted?

Yes, I will answer your question. I was just waiting until our January rankings were finalized before doing so. I can tell you that he was not ranked in our December rankings but we wrote about him in our January report. It's possible he will enter our rankings with his effort in Sweden. Should have a full answer for you soon.

 

[Panopticon]

Yes, I will answer your question. I was just waiting until our January rankings were finalized before doing so. I can tell you that he was not ranked in our December rankings but we wrote about him in our January report. It's possible he will enter our rankings with his effort in Sweden. Should have a full answer for you soon.

OK, I can wait, thanks.


I didn't pay much attention to him before the WJC either...

 

[turnbuckle*]

Jalvanti is an early September birthdate...he was eligible for last year's draft as I've discovered.

 

[Panopticon]

Jalvanti is an early September birthdate...he was eligible for last year's draft as I've discovered.

OK. I just thought someone said that he was the only player from Team Finland that hadn't been eligible before. He could still be drafted, I guess...

 

[turnbuckle*]

OK. I just thought someone said that he was the only player from Team Finland that hadn't been eligible before. He could still be drafted, I guess...

Someone did say that, and they were incorrect. That's why I posted it.

 

[Slitty]

You completely misunderstood what I wrote.

I said we saw him, we just didn't see him enough to confidently rank him higher. As I said before, we saw him in three international tournaments this year including world junior, but our viewings of him in RSL were limited. He plays in Omsk, which for those who don't know, is in the Siberian Federal District. It's a little off the beaten path, you might say.

Sorry, what exactly did I misunderstand?

Granted the ISS has its own way of doing things - I am simply surprised that two brief tournaments was the entire basis upon which Cherepanov was scouted prior to the WJC. Afterall, such a meager amount of attention given to the top prospect comming out of Russia certainly doesn't bode well for the other guys who did not play in the World Juniors (where you guys finally got a good look at Cherepanov) and missed one or more of the tournaments you observed due to injury or RSL commitments. Omsk isn't exactly a hard place to get to nowadays, and even then, considering 8 of the RSL's 19 teams are in the immediate vicinity of Moscow: one could watch one fourth of Cherepanov's games without any travel "off the beaten path" whatsoever. If RSL games are somewhat difficult to scout, I assume you guys don't spend a lot of time watching the Pervaya + Visshaya Ligas or any of the Pervenstvos? I understand perfectly well that you have a limited amount of resources and manpower; which are all more effectively employed scouting in North America and at international tournaments where most of the scouting-worthy assemble in one place. As I have priorly discussed in regards to Cherepanov, these ranking tendancies simply reaffirm the shortcommings of the system employed by North American scouts. Look at the results for yourself, a kid who is clearly the best prospect and has been blowing away his competition has a couple of mediocre meaningless tournaments and ends up being repeatedly ranked behind all of Kramnov, Mayorov, Korostin, and Bashkirov at various points not too long ago. No doubt that Cherepanov surprised everyone, but he started doing so very extensively all the way back in August: making this eventual recognition of talent a tad late.

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

Sorry, what exactly did I misunderstand?

Granted the ISS has its own way of doing things - I am simply surprised that two brief tournaments was the entire basis upon which Cherepanov was scouted prior to the WJC. Afterall, such a meager amount of attention given to the top prospect comming out of Russia certainly doesn't bode well for the other guys who did not play in the World Juniors (where you guys finally got a good look at Cherepanov) and missed one or more of the tournaments you observed due to injury or RSL commitments. Omsk isn't exactly a hard place to get to nowadays, and even then, considering 8 of the RSL's 19 teams are in the immediate vicinity of Moscow: one could watch one fourth of Cherepanov's games without any travel "off the beaten path" whatsoever. If RSL games are somewhat difficult to scout, I assume you guys don't spend a lot of time watching the Pervaya + Visshaya Ligas or any of the Pervenstvos? I understand perfectly well that you have a limited amount of resources and manpower; which are all more effectively employed scouting in North America and at international tournaments where most of the scouting-worthy assemble in one place. As I have priorly discussed in regards to Cherepanov, these ranking tendancies simply reaffirm the shortcommings of the system employed by North American scouts. Look at the results for yourself, a kid who is clearly the best prospect and has been blowing away his competition has a couple of mediocre meaningless tournaments and ends up being repeatedly ranked behind all of Kramnov, Mayorov, Korostin, and Bashkirov at various points not too long ago. No doubt that Cherepanov surprised everyone, but he started doing so very extensively all the way back in August: making this eventual recognition of talent a tad late.

I really think you are mis-reading the points made and focusing too much on the tourney issue. He mentioned Cherepanov was going up anyway based on other viewings outside of the WJC (which means they did see him).

People get way too caught up in rankings before Christmas. I'm sure some of the scouting services are tempted to provide no rankings what so ever before the new year based on them being taken too seriously. Personally, I'm always surprised when rankings come out in October (even though I enjoy them) because it is such a crap shoot at that point. So many players have matured and everything scouts thought they knew going into the season is changing before their eyes.

 

[ISS Hockey]

Sorry, what exactly did I misunderstand?

This right here.

I am simply surprised that two brief tournaments was the entire basis upon which Cherepanov was scouted prior to the WJC.

Let me say it again. Very simply. We did not see him enough times to confidently rank him higher.

This does not mean that we only saw him in two tournaments before the world juniors. Understand?

For example (and this is just an example because I'm not about to share our database report on Cherepanov):

One of our scouts saw him play in three or four RSL games and he was really impressed, that might not be enough. It's important for other scouts in our organization to see him. We need to see the player more than that to put him higher.


You are either assuming something, or misunderstanding what I say.

Again, I hope this clears things up.

 

[ISS Hockey]

People get way too caught up in rankings before Christmas. I'm sure some of the scouting services are tempted to provide no rankings what so ever before the new year based on them being taken too seriously. Personally, I'm always surprised when rankings come out in October (even though I enjoy them) because it is such a crap shoot at that point. So many players have matured and everything scouts thought they knew going into the season is changing before their eyes.

For all the criticism that is directed at early-season rankings, and rankings for 2008 and beyond, you wonder if people would prefer that we did not do a ranking until a week before the NHL draft. But we know that's not the case because of all the attention that's directed at them. As much as we know people will disagree with rankings, we do them anyway. Many of our clients who pay for our service appreciate them. It's ironic that the people who complain the loudest about our rankings are the people who get them for free.

Dr. Sens makes a good point, and another poster did, too about the volatility or "nebulous" nature of early-season rankings. I prefer to think of rankings as evaluations of a player's stock value, much like a company. The more you know about a company, the more you confident you become in your evaluation. In order to become a blue-chip prospect (stock), you have to consistently perform at a high level.

I'm sure that given the alternative to rankings that are subject to change (no rankings) people will agree that the present practice is better.

Also, because we are a scouting service, we need to see a player to evaluate him and rank him. We won't do it on hype. And, to put a player high in our rankings, we would need to see him many times.

 

[timlap]

. . .It's ironic that the people who complain the loudest about our rankings are the people who get them for free. . .

I don't think that's ironic. I think it makes logical sense.

For my part though, I appreciate your rankings, always look forward to them, and try to learn as much as I can from them.

 

[FTowwn]

Akim Aliu in the first round? you have got to be kidding me

 

[Slitty]

Also, because we are a scouting service, we need to see a player to evaluate him and rank him. We won't do it on hype. And, to put a player high in our rankings, we would need to see him many times.

Okay, fair enough. Out of curiosity, how much more extensively, apart from observations made at the Junior A Challenge, was Mayorov scouted to be ranked ahead of Cherepanov last month and have no invisible asterix next to his name in doing so? Also, I think I have asked this before and did not receive an answer, but what was Mayorov's position in your rankings prior to the Junior A Challenge at which he impressed you?

 

[ISS Hockey]

Okay, fair enough. Out of curiosity, how much more extensively, apart from observations made at the Junior A Challenge, was Mayorov scouted to be ranked ahead of Cherepanov last month and have no invisible asterix next to his name in doing so? Also, I think I have asked this before and did not receive an answer, but what was Mayorov's position in your rankings prior to the Junior A Challenge at which he impressed you?

I don't know the answer to that right off. I can try to find out.

One thing I do know for sure is that our chief scout saw Mayorov at the junior A challenge. Our chief scout and our director of scouting have a lot of influence over our rankings (as one might expect). If you think that Mayorov came out of nowhere to appear on our rankings, this might explain it. Multiple viewings (by a couple of our scouts including our chief scout).

As for what his ranking was, before the junior A challenge, I don't know what it was, but he was not in our top 150 that we put out on November 4th. So he was a fast riser.

As I said in another post, moving Cherepanov up so much this month is an admission on our part that we had him ranked too low in previous months.

His rapid climb in one month (because we don't normally like to do that) is also a reflection of the talent pool for this year's draft. The top prospects are not considered to be head and shoulders above the others this year. No Crosby, No Ovechkin, no Malkin, etc.

As for Cherepanov's ranking, it's still subject to change, of course. His No. 1 ranking is not based simply on one tournament (the world juniors). If we ranked players that high based on just one tournament, then Ruslan Bashkirov would be ranked much higher for his performance at last year's world under-18. Six goals as a 16-year-old. Since then, he has not impressed us so much and he has dropped. The same could happen to Mayorov if he doesn't keep up the performance he showed in Yorkton.

It's unlikely that Cherepanov will drop because we've got a pretty good read on him now and he's proven himself against older players, but really, it's up to the player to continue to perform (and I don't mean just points) or his stock drops.

 

[mazmin]

What a deep draft on defense! Tommy Cross at 10? What has he done at Westminster to warrant a top 10 rank? All I've heard is that he has good size and skills and will attend Boston College. I'm surprised there isn't a thread dedicated to him yet?

 

[mikedifr]

Not responded well in what way, performance since the cut?attitude?

Can someone answer this about esposito? I am curious as well.

 

[ISS Hockey]

Can someone answer this about esposito? I am curious as well.

I answered. Scroll back to post # 78.