Proposal: Isles-Sens

[LeapOnOver]

I get that Ladd is a good player. Maybe a very good leader, and arguably a clutch performer... but I think Stone is just better.. right now and going forward. If you don't see that, I don't know what to tell you.

I'd take Stone too. As an Islander's fan, I don't know why my brethern have such an infatuation with Ladd. I take Okposo over Ladd as well.

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

Wow. In a thread in which Brock Nelson is a centrepiece in a trade for Mark Stone, the most asinine comments are somehow about Wiercioch and Ceci. Incredible.

 

[trentmccleary]

lol I am a sens fan, and I watched every single senators game as well. From what I've seen Ceci is awesome offensively, but is atrocious defensively, every game he gets caught in his own end and is outshot badly. It doesn't mean I like Cowen or Wiercioch, or think that they are particularly good.

Interestingly enough, Ceci played with Methot more than he played with Cowen, is Methot not a competent D? How come he wasn't good even when paired with him?

I am also a fan of analytics. And it just so happens that Ceci did in fact bring down the possession metrics of every single player he paired with. In fact, Phaneuf is the perfect example since his possession away from Ceci was ridiculously higher. Ceci sinks his teammates no matter who his teammate is. Its time to stop blaming who he plays with and point the finger at him. http://www.corsica.hockey/combos/

I don't want to come off as a Ceci hater, because the truth I like him and want him to keep improving and cement himself as a top 4 defenceman. I just find that sens fans really overvalue him and put him in a light that he doesn't deserve... yet. For example saying that he is better than Calvin De Haan, who is already an established top 4 guy that excels at driving possession and makes all the players around him better.

I honestly can't imagine anybody watching Wiercioch and Ceci playing more than a handful of games and coming away with the opinion that Wiercioch is better or even just better defensively. It's so obviously wrong, it's not debateable.

This is another clear failure of advanced stats and their cherry picked usage.

Wiercioch was sheltered, benched and demoted. 35% of his starts were in the offensive zone vs. 29% for Ceci.

If Ceci was away from Wiercioch, it was because:
1) it was a defensive zone face-off which will negatively affect advanced stats,
2) Wiercioch was demoted to the 3rd pairing to get limited, easier ice time against 3rd & 4th lines. Meanwhile Ceci was still anchoring the 2nd pairing with another bottom pairing d-man against the top-2 lines of other teams (Cowen, Boro, Claessen).

That lineup chart you saw earlier had Ceci playing with Phaneuf and Methot 35% of the time. That's 65% playing with bottom pairing d-men, while trying to anchor the 2nd pairing as a 22yo, getting used as a shutdown d-man.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

lol I am a sens fan, and I watched every single senators game as well. From what I've seen Ceci is awesome offensively, but is atrocious defensively, every game he gets caught in his own end and is outshot badly. It doesn't mean I like Cowen or Wiercioch, or think that they are particularly good.

Interestingly enough, Ceci played with Methot more than he played with Cowen, is Methot not a competent D? How come he wasn't good even when paired with him?

I am also a fan of analytics. And it just so happens that Ceci did in fact bring down the possession metrics of every single player he paired with. In fact, Phaneuf is the perfect example since his possession away from Ceci was ridiculously higher. Ceci sinks his teammates no matter who his teammate is. Its time to stop blaming who he plays with and point the finger at him. http://www.corsica.hockey/combos/

I don't want to come off as a Ceci hater, because the truth I like him and want him to keep improving and cement himself as a top 4 defenceman. I just find that sens fans really overvalue him and put him in a light that he doesn't deserve... yet. For example saying that he is better than Calvin De Haan, who is already an established top 4 guy that excels at driving possession and makes all the players around him better.

I don't believe this. You'd have a better chance convincing me that you're Jimmy Hoffa.

 

[Gavin Ray]

The analytic people tend to find any number that suits their opinion. The relevance of these numbers as far as hockey goes is not important to them. Obscure stays are more important than what really happens on the ice. It's annoying and it ruins real discussions of which player is better.

I just think this shows how much you know about analytics and what they mean. They aren't very advanced stats to be honest, simple and logical shot proxies. I disagree that they ruin discussion. What ruins discussion is people saying PLAYER X is good because my friends and I said so, and we watched the games and you didn't!

"Referring to analytics" is an under statement. You're forming complete opinions on players based on numbers without context or limited/no viewings of the player.

What? I'm a sens fan, and watched every single sens game last year. Just because my opinion is different than yours doesn't mean I haven't seen the same team. The only difference is what I've seen on the ice matches what is shown by the stats.

 

[Gavin Ray]

To put your numbers into contect a little bit, when Methot or Phaneuf don't play with Ceci they tend to play with Karlsson. Would that not be one of the reasons Ceci "drags down everybody he plays with"? Just a theory.

Thats a good point, but you can easily look at other players instead of Karlsson and you still see the same trend, where they don't give up as many scoring chances against when away from Ceci.

Wow. In a thread in which Brock Nelson is a centrepiece in a trade for Mark Stone, the most asinine comments are somehow about Wiercioch and Ceci. Incredible.

Thats because Ottawa won't trade Stone for a player who isn't better than he is. Stone is just too valuable to us to downgrade is a trade.

 

[Liver King]

I just think this shows how much you know about analytics and what they mean. They aren't very advanced stats to be honest, simple and logical shot proxies. I disagree that they ruin discussion. What ruins discussion is people saying PLAYER X is good because my friends and I said so, and we watched the games and you didn't!



What? I'm a sens fan, and watched every single sens game last year. Just because my opinion is different than yours doesn't mean I haven't seen the same team. The only difference is what I've seen on the ice matches what is shown by the stats.

If you knew the methodology by which the statistics you speak of are being collected in todays NHL (the most primitive sport regarding stats) you would hold little weight upon them in rounding out your agruments. Video eventing is a pathetic form of statistical collection, especially in an ever flowing sport like Hockey. This is why the NBA and all European Soccer leagues use Tracking technology (something the NHL has yet to adobt) because it provides true context to each event, yielding a true objective analysis of a player or team. Right now, most 'advanced stats' are quite meaningless...but eventually the methods behind them will progress to something worthy of discussion

 

[Gavin Ray]

I honestly can't imagine anybody watching Wiercioch and Ceci playing more than a handful of games and coming away with the opinion that Wiercioch is better or even just better defensively. It's so obviously wrong, it's not debateable.

This is another clear failure of advanced stats and their cherry picked usage.

Wiercioch was sheltered, benched and demoted. 35% of his starts were in the offensive zone vs. 29% for Ceci.

If Ceci was away from Wiercioch, it was because:
1) it was a defensive zone face-off which will negatively affect advanced stats,
2) Wiercioch was demoted to the 3rd pairing to get limited, easier ice time against 3rd & 4th lines. Meanwhile Ceci was still anchoring the 2nd pairing with another bottom pairing d-man against the top-2 lines of other teams (Cowen, Boro, Claessen).

That lineup chart you saw earlier had Ceci playing with Phaneuf and Methot 35% of the time. That's 65% playing with bottom pairing d-men, while trying to anchor the 2nd pairing as a 22yo, getting used as a shutdown d-man.

When did I say I think Wiercioch was good, why are you talking about him for 90% of your post? Nice job reading.

As for your last sentence, so what? I isolated each pairing. Ceci's play with Cowen, has no impact on his preformance with Methot.

 

[Benjamin]

What? I'm a sens fan, and watched every single sens game last year. Just because my opinion is different than yours doesn't mean I haven't seen the same team. The only difference is what I've seen on the ice matches what is shown by the stats.

I have no problem with you having a different opinion. How you got to your opinion is the problem. I can just go to an advanced stats website to view your opinion on each player.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Im not an advanced stats fan but it's amusing that the Sens fans belittling their own over Ceci's advanced stats haven't offered anything qualitative to retort with. It's all "you must not watch the games" or "it's everyone else he plays with that drags him down".

Is he a strong checker? Solid positionally? Can he help raise the level of his partner? Does he need to be paired with a strong defensive defenseman in order to be effective offensively? Good penalty killer?

Edit: one poster did make a solid response.

 

[Sens Rule]

Im not an advanced stats fan but it's amusing that the Sens fans belittling their own over Ceci's advanced stats haven't offered anything qualitative to retort with. It's all "you must not watch the games" or "it's everyone else he plays with that drags him down".

Is he a strong checker? Solid positionally? Can he help raise the level of his partner? Does he need to be paired with a strong defensive defenseman in order to be effective offensively? Good penalty killer?

Edit: one poster did make a solid response.

Why do the other defencenen on Ottawa look better in advanced stats then Ceci? Simple. Ceci virtually never played with Karlsson. Every other Sens Defenceman pretty much spent more time with Karlsson.

Ceci was ALWAYS the 2nd pair defencenan on Ottawa. He rarely saw time vs 3rd and especially 4th lines and bottom pairings. He mostly played with Wiercioch and Cowen or Borowiecki. All not very good defencemen. While those 3 D got to play with Karlsson at times... Or one the 3rd pairing vs the least of opponents.

Ceci got virtually no PP time because Karlsson as a RD played on both the first and second PPs almost all the time.

It is really easy to see why the advanced stats for Ceci were poor. It was also easy to see how dominant Ceci became the last 40% of the season with Phaneuf, and even after Phaneuf got injured... As well as on Team Canada at the World Championship.

Ceci played the second hardest minutes among Ottawa D after Karlsson. With the worst partners.

It is so obvious why his advanced stats sucked. And ask any Sens fan that watched 50 or 60 games... And almost no one thinks Ceci is bad.

 

[Benttheknee]

I'd take Stone too. As an Islander's fan, I don't know why my brethern have such an infatuation with Ladd. I take Okposo over Ladd as well.

I had the opportunity to talk to Guy Charboneau and he had a very high opinion of Ladd.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Im not an advanced stats fan but it's amusing that the Sens fans belittling their own over Ceci's advanced stats haven't offered anything qualitative to retort with. It's all "you must not watch the games" or "it's everyone else he plays with that drags him down".

Is he a strong checker? Solid positionally? Can he help raise the level of his partner? Does he need to be paired with a strong defensive defenseman in order to be effective offensively? Good penalty killer?

Edit: one poster did make a solid response.

Ceci was mediocre all year until Phaneuf got here and he then started being much more assertive and even playing with an edge as the season wound down while being a significant contributor offensively.

This year is going to be very telling as to where he's headed. Still, he's decent top 4 dman at age 22 (poor stats likely due to having been paired with trainwrecks before Phaneuf).

 

[Sureves]

I can't believe this thread got to 6 pages: I legitimately just shook my head in disappointment when I read the OP a couple of days ago.

Only way I would trade Stone to be Islanders is in a package for Tavares: and I wouldn't be adding a ton to Stone in that package.

He is not for trade.

 

[Drivefor5]

How about this proposal?


Ottawa Receives:


BROCK NELSON, LW, C 6'3" 206 age 24 2,500,000 2 yrs
26 14 40

JOSH BAILEY, C, RW 6'1" 194 age 26 3,300,000 2 yrs
12 20 32

+
2 million in salary retained


Islanders Receives:


Mika Zibanejad, RW, C 6'2" 211 age 23 2,625,000 2 yrs
21 30 51

NICK PAUL, LW 6'3" 201 age 21 670,000 2 yrs
2 3 5

In light of today's trade I had to take a closer look at Brassard, today's deal, and the deal I suggested early in this thread.

So my question is how was my deal quoted above not better, or at least closer to being better, then the deal your team just made for Mika?

 

[Benjamin]

In light of today's trade I had to take a closer look at Brassard, today's deal, and the deal I suggested early in this thread.

So my question is how was my deal quoted above not better, or at least closer to being better, then the deal your team just made for Mika?

Paul is more valuable than a 2nd.

Brassard is more valuable than the isle package.

 

[periferal]

Zibby would only be dealt in a package for a true no.1 center, oh I see one on your team... is he for trade?

You may want to call your GM...

 

[Connor]

Sens should try to flip Ryan to the Islanders.

 

[Stuzchuk]

You may want to call your GM...

apparently, that's their No.1 center....
starting to get sick of Melnyk at the top

 

[SLAPSHOT723]

Sens should try to flip Ryan to the Islanders.

Too big of a contract.

 

[FourRings]

I can't believe this thread got to 6 pages: I legitimately just shook my head in disappointment when I read the OP a couple of days ago.

Only way I would trade Stone to be Islanders is in a package for Tavares: and I wouldn't be adding a ton to Stone in that package.

He is not for trade.

 

[TeamRenzo]

Im a big fan of JT and realize that he is a true/elite #1 center in the NHL but Stone is is our best all round winger, might even be the second best player on the team. I believe that over the next two years Stone will be one of the top wingers in the game.

If anyone wants Stone it will cost dearly.