It is pretty clear we aren't going to agree on this, and we are getting away from the main point of the thread and prospect talk. So I will make this my last post on the issue (in this thread) and we will have to agree to disagree.
Personally, I don't see where I am making a lot of assumptions. Most of the expansion draft talk was out there for public consumption and McPhee stated that he was willing to work with teams, discuss who they would take in advance and make side deals, as long as he felt any deals were a net positive for Vegas.
My main point was that while the Isles were going to lose one player, the price Snow ended up paying COMBINED with what he did next to build the roster PLUS bad fortune (with injuries) resulted in the absolute worst-case scenario. Given that, Snow ended up overpaying to protect "his guys", lost a season and ultimately his job.
I don't have the time or inclination to continue to refute you point by point, however, what would have been the worst-case scenarios if Snow didn't make a deal with Vegas?
Forget about Bailey not being protected. He wasn't coming off the great season he just had and was an impending UFA after the season. I don't think ANYONE here, or in the press, ever mentioned Bailey as a possible Vegas target. But the Isles could have protected him over a fifth defenseman if they had to.
I previously noted that Vegas probably would have taken Nelson. To me, that is the most likely choice and NOT a terrible price to pay. Was Nelson instrumental to the Isles season last year or even year's past? Not at all. He didn't fit on either of the top two lines nor could he drive or lift the third line in any meaningful way. And he has shown those same deficiencies his entire career so far.
But, for whatever reason, Nelson has always been perceived as a Snow favorite. Maybe they hang out and smoke up together, but it sure hasn't been the drive to win hockey games that bonds them.
Or the other "worst-case" scenario and Vegas took CdH. But would they have taken yet another defenseman over say Nelson, in a defense-rich draft, or a younger defenseman signed to term over a defender approaching UFA? Even if they had, the Isles could have still looked to sign a free agent or make a trade to replace CdH, perhaps with the draft picks saved by NOT paying Vegas a premium.
And the error is compounded by Snow NEVER seemingly having any interest in extending CdH beyond last year. What GM in their right mind sends a first and a second to protect an asset they were only expecting to employ for a year then replace? I could understand if CdH was extended after the expansion draft or if he was a star player, but he wasn't extended nor is he a star the Isles couldn't risk losing for nothing - which they ultimately did anyway.
In the end, Snow paid too much to protect too little and it cost him his job as another season was lost, CdH walked for nothing, no substantial moves were made outside of Eberle for Strome, cap savings weren't used correctly and two quality assets were traded in the process. Thank God Snow is gone.