GDT: Isles @ Caps - 2/4/14 7:30 NBCSN

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

* girardi will be 30. he's blocked a lot of shots. I project his shelf life based on other players of his kind in recent years. I could be wrong. But many here wanted McPhee to go after Volchenkov who was basically out of gas already.

* I was using the term any competent gm in regards to signing girardi. the rangers appear to be unwilling to pay what it will take to keep girardi. I suppose sather isn't competent and should reconsider his position. Assuming he is not and won't and girardi hits the market, are we thinking it realistic that a fair to good contract could sign girardi? I would think that would be hard to get. am I wrong?

*fawning over Green and Green not bringing his "a" game since 2010. he did lead nhl d in goals last season and was tied for the team lead in points in the playoffs last season, was he not?

Easily the best stylistic comp for Girardi in the past decade is Hamrlik. How was his mid-30s durability?

Chris Pronger, Hal Gill, Toni Lydman, and Stephane Robidas are some others who blocked a ton of shots. How was their mid-30s health?

Exactly what players in recent years are you basing your projections on? Is it just Volchenkov?

 

[txpd]

i guess i am wrong and i am used to that, i guess. i thought of hamrlik as a puck mover in a large body and girardi as a gleason/orpik type without the mean streak.

 

[HockeyTS32]

Therein lies the problem.

I agree with you, but no one is going to take Green until they know he is 100% healthy anyways

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Laich isn't really a relevant comparable as a forward. Also, everyone's liable to shred their groin playing this sport. Laich's number came up.

I guess the wear and tear could catch up to him, but he's been remarkably healthy so far. I'd much rather gamble on Girardi than Green at this point in their careers.

I'd rather find a third option. Not sure what it is yet, but there has to be something better out there.

i guess i am wrong and i am used to that, i guess. i thought of hamrlik as a puck mover in a large body and girardi as a gleason/orpik type without the mean streak.

Oh, I forgot Gleason on my list.

 

[HockeyTS32]

Liles / Gleason ?

And on the optimistic side of things, this was the first game in how long the Caps did not give up a goal within two minutes of scoring one themselves?

Isn't Liles a PMD? Gleason, I might be alright with, but I doubt the leafs would trade him and if they do they would need add. Either way if you do make the trade green for Gleason+. That leaves a huge hole on the right side of the 2nd pairing. You know how oates is, he will not have someone playing their offside if he can help it. Who would you have up? Carrick? He's not ready for top 4 min.

 

[swimmer77]

Easily the best stylistic comp for Girardi in the past decade is Hamrlik. How was his mid-30s durability?

Chris Pronger, Hal Gill, Toni Lydman, and Stephane Robidas are some others who blocked a ton of shots. How was their mid-30s health?

Exactly what players in recent years are you basing your projections on? Is it just Volchenkov?

Actually quite good but wore down near season's end. However, did re-energize in the playoffs. Hamrlik basically shouldered the burden of a young Habs defence while Markov was injured for two years and did so quite well.

 

[HockeyTS32]

I'll give it a whirl:

Signings
1RW/1LW: Nikolai Kulemin (UFA)
2LW: Evgeny Kuznetsov (ELC)
2RW: Thomas Vanek (UFA)
3C: David Legwand/Marcel Goc (UFA)
1RD: Dan Girardi (UFA)
4LW: Ryan Smyth/Brendan Morrow (UFA)
2G: Giguere/Khudobin (UFA)

Trades
1LD: Green + Schmidt + Laich + draft pick for Ehrhoff
3LD/RD: Brouwer for Gorges

So that leaves you with:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kulemin
Kuznetsov-Grabovski-Vanek
Chimera-Legwand/Goc-Ward
Smyth/Morrow-Latta-Fehr

Ehrhoff-Girardi
Alzner-Carlson
Gorges-Orlov


Holtby
Giguere/Khudobin

So yeah, it'd be possible in one offseason, though it's highly unlikely any team signs that many UFAs.

There's no way that team would fit under the cap. And just like you stated at the bottom, very unlikely any team signs that many UFAs. Plus the caps would have to get rid of a number of players under contract, in order to do so. (disregard this comment. Didn't see the trades in the comment.) But they would still have to resign Grabo.

I know this is hypothetical, but no way that team fits under the cap

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Actually quite good but wore down near season's end. However, did re-energize in the playoffs. Hamrlik basically shouldered the burden of a young Habs defence while Markov was injured for two years and did so quite well.

Right, which is exactly my point. Hamrlik lost his legs in his late 30s, which turned him into quite an ineffective player, but a Girardi contract wouldn't take him past 36.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Easily the best stylistic comp for Girardi in the past decade is Hamrlik. How was his mid-30s durability?

Chris Pronger, Hal Gill, Toni Lydman, and Stephane Robidas are some others who blocked a ton of shots. How was their mid-30s health?

Exactly what players in recent years are you basing your projections on? Is it just Volchenkov?

Hamrlik blocked shots, but he wasn't as physical as Girardi. He was also a much better player than Girardi in his prime.

Pronger and Gill are totally different body types. Lydman made it out of his early 30s, but he's now retired as a 36 year old, so I don't really see how that makes Girardi look any better. Robidas is older than I thought. That said, isn't he out right now with a broken leg or something?

I had a whole list on the other page.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

There's no way that team would fit under the cap. And just like you stated at the bottom, very unlikely any team signs that many UFAs. Plus the caps would have to get rid of a number of players under contract, in order to do so.

I know this is hypothetical, but no way that team fits under the cap

You do realize that shedding Green, Laich, Erat, Brouwer, and Neuvirth would create $21M+ in cap space, right? And that the Cap is likely to raise at least $7M?

You don't think those additions can be made for $28M?

 

[HockeyTS32]

You do realize that shedding Green, Laich, Erat, Brouwer, and Neuvirth would create $21M+ in cap space, right? And that the Cap is likely to raise at least $7M?

You don't think those additions can be made for $28M?

Edited my comment. Didn't see the trades before I commented. I'm interested in seeing how much you think each of those players you have as UFAs would sign for though. Because I honestly don't think the team you put together would be under the caps, even with the cap going up.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Hamrlik blocked shots, but he wasn't as physical as Girardi. He was also a much better player than Girardi in his prime.

Pronger and Gill are totally different body types. Lydman made it out of his early 30s, but he's now retired as a 36 year old, so I don't really see how that makes Girardi look any better. Robidas is older than I thought. That said, isn't he out right now with a broken leg or something?

I had a whole list on the other page.

And Laich had missed 4 games over 5 years before he went to Switzerland. How many physical defensemen in the Girardi mold do we have to see collapse in their mid 30s before we recognize it's more than just coincidence? Regehr, Volchenkov, Mitchell, Robidas, Orpik, Murray, Ohlund, Phillips, Klesla, Montador, Jackman's on his way there, might be the beginning of the end for Seidenberg too. They either slow down and become a liability, or they get fragile.

Dan Girardi isn't hugely physical. He's not a big hitter like a lot of the guys you listed are.

I'll just go through the list.

Regehr: More physical than Girardi, never as good.
Volchenkov: More physical, had durability issues his entire career (only two season of 70+ games before his 30s)
Mitchell: Was a top-4 rock for a Cup winner at age 34. Don't see the problem
Robidas: What's the problem here?
Orpik: More physical, never as good, has had one bad season.
Murray: Much more physical, never as good.
Ohlund: Bad knee injury. Not sure what it has to do with blocking shots.
Phillips: Another quite good comp. What's the problem here? You wouldn't take him on this team right now?
Klesla: Has had injury problems since his mid-20s
Montador: Has he ever been good?
Jackman: More physical, not as durable in his 20s, still looks fine to me.
Seidenberg: Not as durable through 20s, still looks fine to me.

 

[Capitlols]

Seidenberg is the best comparison and the exact player this team needs.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Seidenberg is the best comparison and the exact player this team needs.

Scuderi would have been perfect too. If only those players were available at reasonable cost in the past few years.

 

[txpd]

Scuderi would have been perfect too. If only those players were available at reasonable cost in the past few years.

scuderi would have been perfect.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Dan Girardi isn't hugely physical. He's not a big hitter like a lot of the guys you listed are.

I'll just go through the list.

Regehr: More physical than Girardi, never as good.
Volchenkov: More physical, had durability issues his entire career (only two season of 70+ games before his 30s)
Mitchell: Was a top-4 rock for a Cup winner at age 34. Don't see the problem
Robidas: What's the problem here?
Orpik: More physical, never as good, has had one bad season.
Murray: Much more physical, never as good.
Ohlund: Bad knee injury. Not sure what it has to do with blocking shots.
Phillips: Another quite good comp. What's the problem here? You wouldn't take him on this team right now?
Klesla: Has had injury problems since his mid-20s
Montador: Has he ever been good?
Jackman: More physical, not as durable in his 20s, still looks fine to me.
Seidenberg: Not as durable through 20s, still looks fine to me.

I guess we just have different opinions on how physical Girardi is. I mean, I hate to use real-time stats, but the guy averages better than 2-2.5 hits per game, which is right in line with what most of those guys average.

Mitchell I shouldn't have included, he's not the same level of physical as the others, but I included him along with Robidas, Ohlund, and Seidenberg because even if these guys keep up their level of play, they tend to miss a lot of time with injuries. I don't know if Robidas is expected back this year, but the other three have all had major, season ending injuries

Regehr was on the 2006 Canadian Olympic team. He was definitely better than Girardi in his prime.

As for Phillips and Jackman, I was going off the fact that Sens and Blues fans seem to be looking to replace them, and in the Sens' case have been for a few years. Yeah, they'd be huge upgrades here, but that doesn't mean their play hasn't severely fallen off. They went from top pairing caliber to borderline top 4, and neither of them hits more frequently than Girardi.

 

[Langway]

I bet last night's 'fan experience' was just tremendous.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I guess we just have different opinions on how physical Girardi is. I mean, I hate to use real-time stats, but the guy averages better than 2-2.5 hits per game, which is right in line with what most of those guys average.

Mitchell I shouldn't have included, he's not the same level of physical as the others, but I included him along with Robidas, Ohlund, and Seidenberg because even if these guys keep up their level of play, they tend to miss a lot of time with injuries. I don't know if Robidas is expected back this year, but the other three have all had major, season ending injuries

Regehr was on the 2006 Canadian Olympic team. He was definitely better than Girardi in his prime.

As for Phillips and Jackman, I was going off the fact that Sens and Blues fans seem to be looking to replace them, and in the Sens' case have been for a few years. Yeah, they'd be huge upgrades here, but that doesn't mean their play hasn't severely fallen off. They went from top pairing caliber to borderline top 4, and neither of them hits more frequently than Girardi.

MSG highly inflates Rags' hit totals. He looks to me to be more of a functional hitter, rather than a punishing hitter. He separates guys from the puck rather than looking to lay them out. PIMs to me are a much better indicator of physicality than hits.

Bryan McCabe and Wade Redden were on the 2006 Canadian Olympic Team (which didn't medal). Does that make them better than Mike Green? Regehr made that team because of a weak pool for Canada to choose from and because he was on the top pair of a Canadian NHL team that made the Finals the previous season. Prime Girardi would have walked into that team.

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

MSG highly inflates Rags' hit totals. He looks to me to be more of a functional hitter, rather than a punishing hitter. He separates guys from the puck rather than looking to lay them out. PIMs to me are a much better indicator of physicality than hits.

Bryan McCabe and Wade Redden were on the 2006 Canadian Olympic Team (which didn't medal). Does that make them better than Mike Green? Regehr made that team because of a weak pool for Canada to choose from and because he was on the top pair of a Canadian NHL team that made the Finals the previous season. Prime Girardi would have walked into that team.

Agree to disagree on Regehr. I don't think being the top defenseman on a team during a SCF appearance is something I'd hold against him.

Anyway, where are the counter examples? How many physical, shot blocking defensemen (who aren't giants) since the '05 lockout have made it through their early 30s without a sharp decline in play or a serious injury? There's Lydman and Robidas - one retired from a concussion as a 35 year old and the other is likely out for the season with that broken leg. I know Girardi's better and has been healthier than just about all these guys, but this scares me.

And it's not like we've got much of a chance at him anyway. Teams like the Leafs, Red Wings, and Flyers all desperately need a shutdown RD, and they can afford to drive Girardi's price into the stratosphere. How much would we have to pay to make this cluster**** look like a more desirable location than Toronto, Detroit, or Philly?

 

[Roughing]

Scuderi would have been perfect too. If only those players were available at reasonable cost in the past few years.

What? And let him block Carrick? Pfft.

Besides with Scuderi signed we'd have never been able to afford Erat.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Agree to disagree on Regehr. I don't think being the top defenseman on a team during a SCF appearance is something I'd hold against him.

Anyway, where are the counter examples? How many physical, shot blocking defensemen (who aren't giants) since the '05 lockout have made it through their early 30s without a sharp decline in play or a serious injury? There's Lydman and Robidas - one retired from a concussion as a 35 year old and the other is likely out for the season with that broken leg. I know Girardi's better and has been healthier than just about all these guys, but this scares me.

And it's not like we've got much of a chance at him anyway. Teams like the Leafs, Red Wings, and Flyers all desperately need a shutdown RD, and they can afford to drive Girardi's price into the stratosphere. How much would we have to pay to make this cluster**** look like a more desirable location than Toronto, Detroit, or Philly?

The circumstances of Regehr's inclusion on the Olympic team certainly diminish the credit he should get for it.

Um, how about the list I gave you, and several of the guys on your list? I'm sure there's current/recent ones I'm missing and a bunch more if you go back further (Daneyko, Blake, Stevens come to mind).

I can understand if you're not a fan of the player's ability. That's a matter of opinion. But this "he's gonna breakdown and get injured" view is such a weird txpd-like stance. There's absolutely no evidence for it, and it's nothing more than unsupported paranoia. Wasn't Ovie's body supposed to break down by now due to his rugged style?. It's almost comparable to the crowd that would refuse to take a defenseman in the top-5 of the draft because there have been some busts.

 

[Mothra]

*fawning over Green and Green not bringing his "a" game since 2010. he did lead nhl d in goals last season and was tied for the team lead in points in the playoffs last season, was he not?

For a player where durability is a serious question, playing 35 out of a 48 game season doesnt slam the door shut on the question of if he has brought his "A" game in recent years. It was a positive sign that he was producing....but that has since gone the other way, or at least for most of this season.

Yes...he had 4 points in a 7 game series loss, same as Ward. Whats your point with this....You often point to Norris Finalist 52, or 1st team all-star 52....was his play Norris finalist like? All-Star like? He had 4 points in 7 games....woohoo! He wasnt gawdawful!!! He scored as much as Ward and MP85!!

 

[Zoidberg Jesus]

Thr circumstance of Regehr's inclusion on the Olympic team certainly diminish the credit he should get for it.

Um, how about the list I gave you, and several of the guys on your list? I'm sure there's current/recent ones I'm missing and a bunch more if you go back further (Daneyko, Blake, Stevens come to mind).

I can understand if you're not a fan of the player's ability. That's a matter of opinion. But this "he's gonna breakdown and get injured" view is such a weird txpd-like stance. There's absolutely no evidence for it, and it's nothing more than unsupported paranoia. Wasn't Ovie's body supposed to break down by now due to his rugged style?. It's almost comparable to the crowd that would refuse to take a defenseman in the top-5 of the draft because there have been some busts.

The list you gave me was the two guys I mentioned, plus a future hall-of-famer and a guy who's 6'7 and 250 lbs. I don't think the last two are good comparables. The guys from my list were Mitchell, who I said in later post I shouldn't have included, Phillips and Jackman, who Sens and Blues fans aren't happy with as top 4 defensemen, and Seidenberg, who just had a serious knee injury and could very well go the way of Ohlund. And now you've got a HoFer, a future HoFer, and Mr. Devil, which is nice, but I was specifically talking about the post lockout era because it cut back so much on the effectiveness of that style of defense. I'll give you Blake, but like Pronger that's a guy coming from a much higher level of play.

If 75% of defensemen taken in the top 5 failed to live up to expectations, I wouldn't take them. For us to sign Girardi considering the likely competition for his services, we're probably going to have to pay him a Suter-level seven year contract. I think that magnifies any doubts about him. Anyone else want to chime in? I dunno, am I going all John Nash and finding patterns that aren't there, or is there something to it?

 

[txpd]

I bet last night's 'fan experience' was just tremendous.

not so fat ted

 

[txpd]

I can understand if you're not a fan of the player's ability. That's a matter of opinion. But this "he's gonna breakdown and get injured" view is such a weird txpd-like stance. There's absolutely no evidence for it, and it's nothing more than unsupported paranoia. Wasn't Ovie's body supposed to break down by now due to his rugged style?. It's almost comparable to the crowd that would refuse to take a defenseman in the top-5 of the draft because there have been some busts.

txpd-like. thanks for the shout out. I like it, though, getting tired of it.

interesting that you mention the ov thing. ov has not worn down from his hitting. but I think its in part because no one seems to have much success hitting him. as opposed to girardi who ovechkin himself targeted and just about vaporized in a 7 game playoff series. being vaporized and being the vaporizer might have a different effect on a body.

I don't know. I mean. I don't. its a proven fact.