Not necessarily a prediction, but make no mistake, as far as competing (and I list them in opposite order) here is what needs to happen IMO:
10. DEFENSE- Trotz gets this defense to look better than expected. It simply can’t be worse than last year, and I don't think he will tolerate anything but a major improvement. System and coaching alone (especially compared to the horrid glass defense of last year) should drastically improve the defense, which is why I ranked it so low
9. Ladd and Nelson exceeding expectations- Listed so low because I simply don't see it. Sure, Nelson is more than capable of returning to 20 goals and threatening 50 points, but only a breakout from #1 on this list will make exceeding that happen. Ladd returning to his old 50pt self in Winnipeg? Um, he hasn't sniffed 40 since 2014. A 20/20 season would be nothing short of a miracle. 90 pts from this duo is EXCEEDING
8. Improvements in Net- Much like #10 it can’t be any worse. Greiss can’t possibly be this bad, can he? Anything in between his two previous two seasons (.920 save pct, facing around 30 shots) will be night and day from last season (.892 save pct facing 35 shots). How he managed to win 13 of his starts last season was a feat in itself. Lehner is a career .915 save pct goalie (almost identical to the departed Halak) and that is playing for one of the worse defensive teams out there. We need that .915-.920 save percentage from these two and it begins with getting those shots down- which I am sure Trotz knows about
7. The Rise of Pulock and Beauvillier- Both showed glimpses of what they are capable of and now it is time for the next step. For Ryan it is showing he belongs in that top 4 on the blue line both offensively and defensively and obviously for Anthony is him entrenching himself alongside Barzal on the top line. Want to compete in 2018 and offset that sting of he should not be named jumping ship- it begins with 30 and 30 for these two. Goals for Beau and assists for Pulock- something both are more than capable of doing (btw an even descent shooting percentage from Ryan could net 45 plus points)
6. New heights for #13- The 21-year old Calder Trophy winner led the team in points and assists, and it isn't just about repeating his point per game rookie season, but rather he has to take the reins completely. 37 goals went north and I am not asking necessarily for a century season from the youngster, but a 30/60 output is the expectation...especially the 30 part from a team lacking in true centers, much less centers who can score
5. No major slide from L, E and B- 74 goals the last two seasons from Anders Lee, a fifth straight season of 50 plus points per 80 for Jordan Eberle and a career season from Josh Bailey with 71 points. We know all of this isn't going to happen again, and that is ok...we would settle for 10 less goals from AL (still netting him 30), a return to Josh's previous season (still getting 55-60 points) and Jordan holding serve.
4. TOUGHNESS- Sure, one could argue I am repeating number 10- but I am talking about from our forwards as well, so it is a little different. How bad was it last season as a team? We gave up 35.6 shots per game, which equaled 3.57 goals allowed per game. Hits were way down, our penalty killing was dead last in the league at 73.2%. We weren’t drawing penalties, nor were we making any. In other words we were soft. You can’t give your opponents over 4 more shots (4.2- second only to the Rangers) per game and expect to win. There is a reason Lou brought back Martin and Johnston, and collectively as a team we have to get tougher.
3. That third line- Let’s face it, by bringing back Nelson; the top two lines are all but certain. Beauviller-Barzal-Eberle will lead the first line and Brock will likely center between Lee and Bailey on the second. Question remains who step up to form that third line? With the return of Martin joining Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck for the fourth line it leaves a host of contenders battling it out for the third. Ladd figures to have a leg up on the left side as several will battle it out to center it and join him on the other side. Any regressions (and some should be expected as mentioned above) from the Top 6 makes it that much more vital in somewhat a success evolving on this line. Lou brought in a handful of newcomers including Jan Kovar, Valtteri Filppula and Leo Komarov to make something stick.
2. Leddy, Leddy, Leddy- Minus 42? That has got to be a misprint, right? This from a guy who was +15 in 500 career games prior?? I dint even recognize #2 last season. Make no mistake, if Nick doesn’t return to form- we are absolutely toast. We know he is good for 30 plus assists, but he needs to embrace this new system on the blue line and lead us all the way back. One could easily argue this should be #1 in importance.
1. Ho-Sang and the kiddos- Barring Wahlstrom shocking all of us and sporting an Islander uni this season- no one, and I mean no one means more to the Islanders success this year than Josh Ho-Sang. It does say “and the kiddos” because we are a team (whether we want to face it or not) that is building with its future, and next season needs to continue to show that. First, fans nee to accept that once Pajama Boy stabbed us in the back, this is exactly where we landed- building from our youth. New stadium in the works, a stud Calder winner leading the charge and an impressive first draft from a successful GM and a new head coach who knows how to win. So yes, it also means someone from a group of Devin Toews, Sebastian Aho, Yannick Rathgeb, David Quenneville or Robin Salo stepping up on the blue line and sure it would be great if Keiffer Bellows was ready to join a line or goalie Linus Soderstrom proved he was ready by mid-season in net…but the thing is Ho-Sang has already shown what he can do in the NHL. Trotz needs to get his head right, because having Josh in the Top 6 by season’s end would mean talent won over attitude and we need this.
Successful Season Stats Projection:
C Mathew Barzal 31 goals- 60 assists- 91 points (+8)
LW Anthony Beauvillier 28-22-50 (+4)
RW Jordan Eberle 23-47-70 (+7)
C Brock Nelson 12-12-24 (-1) (traded)
C Jan Kovar 10-18-28 (-1)
LW Josh Bailey 15-45-60 (-8)
RW Anders Lee 31-23-54 (-15)
C Leo Komarov 14-15-29 (E)
LW Andrew Ladd 20-15-35 (+3)
RW Josh Ho-Sang 15-25-40 (-3)
C Casey Cizikas 7-18-25 (+5)
LW Matt Martin 5-6-11 (-3)
RW Cal Clutterbuck 6-14-20 (-4)
Valterri Filppula 8-15-23 (+15)
Keiffer Bellows 5-5-10 (-4)
Tom Kuhnhackl 3-7-10 (E)
Nick Leddy 7-33-40 (-1)
Johnny Boychuck 5-12-17 (+16)
Ryan Pulock 11-31-42 (+1)
Adam Pelech 3-20-23 (+8)
Thomas Hickey 4-16-20 (+10)
Scott Mayfield 1-12-12 (-4)
Devin Toews 3-8-11 (-1)
Sebastian Aho 2-5-7 (-4)
Ross Johnston 3-7-10 (+3)
Thomas Greiss (40) 21-14-4, 2.65 GAA, .916 Save Pct; 2 SHO
Robin Lehner (38) 20-15-5, 2.77 GAA, .921 Save Pct; 1 SHO
Linus Soderstrom (4) 2-1-0, 2.50 GAA, .923 Save Pct; 1 SHO
Total Record NY Islanders: 43-30-9; 95 points and 7th seed in playoffs and we actually score 10 more goals than last season (274) while allowing 55 less (241) for a +33
Not impossible. A safe bet would be 80 points, but I am hoping for the best- and those 10 things are paramount
