Is there argument to be made that the Jets(On Paper) have a Top 10 Defence?

[HannuJ]

IMO, The teams with a better top 6 (top to bottom) than the Jets on paper are:

Nashville
Anaheim
Minnesota

About Equal - NYR, Wash, STL, Columbus

yeah, i'm racking my brains trying to think who else would be in the top 10 (without having to look up stats). i can tell you for certain that Montreal, Edmonton, Dallas, Colorado, Toronto, Vegas and...Vancouver all are in the bottom.

Calgary's new D would likely be top 10. One can argue that Ottawa, by default, is near the top. Chicago? St Louis?

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

If Toby and Myers start as a "3rd" pair then we'd have the best 3rd pair in the league. Someone on one of the main boards claimed they had the best 3rd pair. Unfortunately I can't remember the team or the names now.

I wonder what team could possibly claim that?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Toby and Myers start as a "3rd" pair then we'd have the best 3rd pair in the league. Someone on one of the main boards claimed they had the best 3rd pair. Unfortunately I can't remember the team or the names now.

I wonder what team could possibly claim that?

Is that rhetorical?

No, the Leafs do not have the best 3rd pair in the league.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Is that rhetorical?

No, the Leafs do not have the best 3rd pair in the league.

No I literally was wondering what team would have 2 guys as experienced and strong as Myers in their 5/6 slots?

Leafs fans would rank themselves as having 9 of the top 25 forwards but they like to self deprecate o their D beyond Reilly, Zaitzev and Gardiner.

 

[CaptainChef]

Top 10 if....and if...and if....if, if if. Therefore voted no. If Buff & Enstrom can return to normal.... ; if Myers & Enstrom can stay healthy....., if Morrissey doesn't suffer a sophomore and beyond slump....., if Kulikov can return to normal (not what he was in Buff)....if someone can step up & perform top 6 or top 4 duties when injuries hit,.....

Way too many things have to go right for us to be solidly in the top 10. Without half of those going right, we're outside the top 10 IMO. Add in some weird defensive schemes they get asked to play & the defense is our major shortfall.

 

[CaptainChef]

Way too many if's to even suggest this at this point:

Byfuglien - lots to love and lots to hate
Trouba - top notch
Morrissey - really great rookie year, hoping no sophomore slump
Kulikov - needs to rebound
Enstrom - real question mark about him and whether he will rebound and health
Myers - can he stay healthy?

This D corps has the potential to be excellent this year. IF the coaches can get them playing a good system (including the F's role in our zone). IF Kulikov can counterbalance Byfuglien's defensive ineptitude and IF Buff can balance Kuli's black hole of offense. IF Trouba and Morrissey continue their curve of development and performance. IF Myers and Enstrom can stay healthy. So many IF's

Right on - exactly what I said. The biggest if for the future will be what happens with Trouba. Lose him & add a year or two of aging onto Buff & Enstrom and we're bottom of the barrel bad.

 

[CaptainChef]

As a NHL coach once told me:
For 95% of the game, he's one of the best defenders in the league.
For 5% of the game, he's one of the worst.

I think you got the trade off wrong.

The results suggest the same thing, that you are right about his defensive issues, but wrong about the trade offs:

Not exactly sure how you read this (when his defensive abilities & penalties take him so far into the negative). For me it says bad defenseman. If we needed the offense that would be different but this team has all the offensive weapons we want. If Buff can't get his head on straight & stop thinking he's an offensive weapon first & defense when he happens to be back there, time to get rid of him

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Top 10 if....and if...and if....if, if if. Therefore voted no. If Buff & Enstrom can return to normal.... ; if Myers & Enstrom can stay healthy....., if Morrissey doesn't suffer a sophomore and beyond slump....., if Kulikov can return to normal (not what he was in Buff)....if someone can step up & perform top 6 or top 4 duties when injuries hit,.....

Way too many things have to go right for us to be solidly in the top 10. Without half of those going right, we're outside the top 10 IMO. Add in some weird defensive schemes they get asked to play & the defense is our major shortfall.

Every team has ifs, especially at this time of year. Jets may have a few more than normal but I think that, on paper the Jets right now should rank somewhere around 8-10.

 

[garret9]

Not exactly sure how you read this (when his defensive abilities & penalties take him so far into the negative). For me it says bad defenseman. If we needed the offense that would be different but this team has all the offensive weapons we want. If Buff can't get his head on straight & stop thinking he's an offensive weapon first & defense when he happens to be back there, time to get rid of him

How you read it is that Byfuglien had the best offensive impact in the NHL at evens, but his defensive impact and penalties pushed him into #3 type calibre in overall impact.

Overall impact is how good or bad of a defenseman. Substance >>>>>>>>>>>>> style. Being a number 3 defender means he's good since he's still above average in impact.

IE: How good you are is how good you are and whether or not you get to the destination. How you got there is merely the path you took and sites you get to see.

Now, this is also a worst case scenario. Byfuglien has never been significantly below replacement level defensively ever before. I expect Byfuglien next year to not remotely have that type of negative defensive impact. I all but guarantee it's predominately situational due to the injuries, deployment, and lack of goaltending the team had suffered.

Your line of thinking is how teams lose value trading Hall for Larsson. Sure Larsson is a nice piece but better overall is better overall.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not exactly sure how you read this (when his defensive abilities & penalties take him so far into the negative). For me it says bad defenseman. If we needed the offense that would be different but this team has all the offensive weapons we want. If Buff can't get his head on straight & stop thinking he's an offensive weapon first & defense when he happens to be back there, time to get rid of him

Nope. With Buff's bad D we need his offense.

The way to read that chart, I think is to see that his net effect is positive. It doesn't matter whether you win by scoring more goals or by allowing fewer. It isn't a matter of needing so much offense + so much defense. It is about outscoring the other team any way we can.

 

[garret9]

The team definitely does rely on Byfuglien to generate offense:

Left is with Buff
Right is without Buff

 

[garret9]

Here's my reasonable projections for the Jets next year:

 

[CaptainChef]

Here's my reasonable projections for the Jets next year:

Pretty optimistic view on how Buff will perform IMO. Basically saying his EV Defense will improve drastically, and he'll also improve significantly in PP offense & Penalties drawn.

Hope you're right, just think he's going to be hard pressed to get back his #2 status on the team unless he thinks the game a little differently.

 

[garret9]

Pretty optimistic view on how Buff will perform IMO. Basically saying his EV Defense will improve drastically, and he'll also improve significantly in PP offense & Penalties drawn.

Hope you're right, just think he's going to be hard pressed to get back his #2 status on the team unless he thinks the game a little differently.

If Buff posts that it will be his second worst ev defense value of his career and 3rd worst PP Offense.

It's highly probable and the EV Defense may be even overly pessimistic.

If he did full return to his normal self, he'd not be back to "#2" status but in the 10-15 range in highest GAR.

Last year was an off year for him, and it was more environment than Buff. This may undersell what he'll likely be next season.

 

[ps241]

If Buff posts that it will be his second worst ev defense value of his career and 3rd worst PP Offense.

It's highly probable and the EV Defense may be even overly pessimistic.

If he did full return to his normal self, he'd not be back to "#2" status but in the 10-15 range in highest GAR.

Last year was an off year for him, and it was more environment than Buff. This may undersell what he'll likely be next season.

That is a powerful graph isn't it? Thanks for posting that information. Honestly his PP offence and ES defence were extreme outliers this past season but on the flip side he had insane even strength offense but I wonder if that was because he morphed into a more high risk high reward game?

 

[boanst]

Top 10 if....and if...and if....if, if if. Therefore voted no. If Buff & Enstrom can return to normal.... ; if Myers & Enstrom can stay healthy....., if Morrissey doesn't suffer a sophomore and beyond slump....., if Kulikov can return to normal (not what he was in Buff)....if someone can step up & perform top 6 or top 4 duties when injuries hit,.....

Way too many things have to go right for us to be solidly in the top 10. Without half of those going right, we're outside the top 10 IMO. Add in some weird defensive schemes they get asked to play & the defense is our major shortfall.

IF all these things fall into place, then the Jets would most likely have a top 5 defense.

 

[roccerfeller]

IMO, The teams with a better top 6 (top to bottom) than the Jets on paper are:

Nashville
Anaheim
Minnesota

About Equal - NYR, Wash, STL, Columbus

Calgary is also about equal too I'd say

I'm hard pressed to find any other teams though so I agree that we have a top 10 D

 

[roccerfeller]

If Buff posts that it will be his second worst ev defense value of his career and 3rd worst PP Offense.

It's highly probable and the EV Defense may be even overly pessimistic.

If he did full return to his normal self, he'd not be back to "#2" status but in the 10-15 range in highest GAR.

Last year was an off year for him, and it was more environment than Buff. This may undersell what he'll likely be next season.

Fantastic post

 

[Whileee]

If Buff posts that it will be his second worst ev defense value of his career and 3rd worst PP Offense.

It's highly probable and the EV Defense may be even overly pessimistic.

If he did full return to his normal self, he'd not be back to "#2" status but in the 10-15 range in highest GAR.

Last year was an off year for him, and it was more environment than Buff. This may undersell what he'll likely be next season.

First, I think that is a hypothesis about why Buff played the way he did. Is there evidence to support it? I'm not saying it's wrong, but would like to see the evidence.

Even if he did, I don't think that's a good excuse. The best response to falling behind early is to continue to play a steady defensive game and not to exacerbate the situation by giving up chances that put the team further in the hole. He needed to be more disciplined, if your hypothesis is correct.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

First, I think that is a hypothesis about why Buff played the way he did. Is there evidence to support it? I'm not saying it's wrong, but would like to see the evidence.

Even if he did, I don't think that's a good excuse. The best response to falling behind early is to continue to play a steady defensive game and not to exacerbate the situation by giving up chances that put the team further in the hole. He needed to be more disciplined, if your hypothesis is correct.

He's human. He feels the pressure to score when they are trailing. Doesn't everybody?

 

[Whileee]

He's human. He feels the pressure to score when they are trailing. Doesn't everybody?

Sure, it makes sense. I think that might be right, but I don't think that's all I saw last year. I think the excessive ice-time was a factor. I also saw a lot more "casual" play in his own zone last season, for some reason. I don't think it was all about him rushing up ice and getting caught. I really thought his play in the D zone when they didn't have the puck was also a bit lackadaisical.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Sure, it makes sense. I think that might be right, but I don't think that's all I saw last year. I think the excessive ice-time was a factor. I also saw a lot more "casual" play in his own zone last season, for some reason. I don't think it was all about him rushing up ice and getting caught. I really thought his play in the D zone when they didn't have the puck was also a bit lackadaisical.

I'm pretty sure the excessive TOI was a contributor. Just anecdotal but I think the 'casual' play increases with fatigue too. Also penalties. Add to that the weight of that 'A'. I think he took that very seriously - maybe to a fault. Kind of a 'Bad Buff' perfect storm. I'm fairly confident we see a much better Buff this year. If M&M (Mason & Maurice) come through for us this year ...... I don't want to say it.

 

[CaptainChef]

That is a powerful graph isn't it? Thanks for posting that information. Honestly his PP offence and ES defence were extreme outliers this past season but on the flip side he had insane even strength offense but I wonder if that was because he morphed into a more high risk high reward game?

That does present a much clearer picture of what kind of a season Buff had. I'd expect some of his strengths to rebound, but I wouldn't bank on his defence rebounding and having another outlier EV offence year

 

[CaptainChef]

IF all these things fall into place, then the Jets would most likely have a top 5 defense.

Yes, I concur. But there's an awful lot that would have to fall into place for that to happen

 

[CaptainChef]

He's human. He feels the pressure to score when they are trailing. Doesn't everybody?

I don't have a problem with him going all out if they are trailing by a couple, but how often don't we see Buff taking those crazy ill-advised romps into the offensive zone when we are up in a game. Buff needs to be reminded what his primary job is out there & that isn't happening OR he isn't paying attention to the coaches. If its the latter, you'd expect him to be reprimanded or benched occasionally. Nah