Is Tavares worth his contract?

[Team Cozens]

I watched the Leafs game last night and was not impressed with Tavares at all. Looking back on his game logs / stats and after a hot start he has 1 goal in his last 10 games and 4 points in his last 8. Minus 4 over that period as well. How has he played overall?
His 11 million is already having an effect on future contracts by all accounts.
The last 4-5 years might be tough to swallow and the contract is almost buyout proof.

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[MattMartin]

 

[Bedards Dad]

Yes, all players have slumps. I mean he hit the inside of the post last night and it came right back out. He is currently snake bitten, similar to Matthews 12 games without a goal in his rookie season. Tavares is still on pace for 44 goals and 88 points.

 

[Big Cactus]

He’s still above ppg. Watching more than one game before having an opinion is generally encouraged.

 

[Thrasymachus]

He already has a hat trick, and is ppg?

Tavares isn’t particularly remarkable on the ice until he does something dynamic as hell. He is also streaky so he can be a deceptive player to evaluate. He will heat up again soon, and as pointed out, it’s not like he is doing all that bad right now

 

[Danny1237]

He is worth it in the sense that he was a UFA, and UFA's have an inflated price because you are bidding against other teams, and getting to add a significant asset for nothing other than cap space.

However when you compare him only with the production per dollar compared to other players, even on his own team, it won't look as good. Is he going to justify a cap hit that is over double Kadri and Rielly, or is his cap hit for the production over the life of the contract going to compare well to whatever Matthews signs for? Likely not.

With UFAs, it's almost as if part of the price paid is giving up cap space for the asset, and I would much rather spend $11M on Tavares then $12M for a combo of Bozak and JVR, or $10M on Gudbranson, Beagle and Roussel.

So I think if you are going to go and spend a chunk of your cap on acquiring players as UFAs, Tavares is a far better value than most teams will get.

I think the trick is realizing you can likely only afford to dip your toe in that market a couple times, so you might as well make them count.

I wouldn't read too much into a cold streak, without them Tavares would be a 100+ point player every year, and McDavid would be putting up 150+. They happen, and the Leafs are likely going through some growing pains because of some volatility in their line up. They are missing 2/3rds of their projected top line, Tavares is new, and a revolving door on the 4th line and bottom pair. At some point, there was likely to be some struggle. They have been an uneven team so far, but the good has outweighed the bad. If they can start playing most of the time like they did against Dallas, and the first game against Winnipeg, and less often like they did against St. Louis, they will be as advertised, a contender.

As for the salary cap repercussions, I don't think Tavares contract has really changed anything. The contracts to Marleau and Zaitsev are far more harmful. The Leafs are playing hardball with Willy because they need to get very good value out of their RFAs (as Tampa, Nashville, Winnipeg have done), and Willy is first up. If they didn't have Tavares they wouldn't NEED to do so, but they would probably still want to save space to upgrade elsewhere, so I don't think the current cap situation is impacting this negotiation as much as the fact that the Leafs feel they need to set a precedent, and Nylander doesn't want to give a big discount to the Leafs to be their best trade chip.

There isn't as much pressure from either side to crumble just yet. The Leafs have been winning with Nylander out, and every passing day pushes more of the cap hit to the 1st year, and reduces the subsequent years which is in the Leafs favour anyway. Nylander isn't losing a ton of money, he knows that the only thing stopping the Leafs from signing him is AAV, so he won't have any trouble getting them to offer year 1 as virtually all bonus once they are comfortable with the term and AAV going forward.

There will be a point in November where the Leafs could sign Nylander for over just over $7M per, and it result in a cap hit of less than $6.8M in all the future years. I am not sure how far apart they are in terms of the numbers both sides would actually be OK to settle at, but I would have to think that if it got to a point where the future cap hit came down to where the Leafs were comfortable, but the real total salary was where Willy wanted, that the contract gets done, and nobody draws a line in the sand based on principle.

If the gap really is too much to bridge, Willy is an asset, they don't lose him for nothing. Tavares at $11M plus whatever you get for Willy (provided a reasonable trade) is worth more than Willy plus cap space you can't use right away.

 

[SnizzMitch]

He’s been very unlucky and he’s adapting to a new system. He’s still ppg though (14pts in 13 games), so I’d say he’s not that bad.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Tavares is as good advertised. Take that for what it's worth.

 

[NyQuil]

It's almost as if there's another thread on the main board that is the inspiration for this thread somehow.

 

[macleod50]

Still a point per game.

 

[seafoam]

He’s worth it, however his deal is going to cause Toronto to have to make some tough decisions on guys like William Nylander, Jake Gardiner, and/or Nazem Kadri.

I would assume Matthews/Marner/Tavares are the absolute three they want to keep up front, and after this season, all three combined will make close to or eclipse 30M.

That’s ~38% of the cap currently, but will continue to go down as the cap increases. That means that Toronto has to fill ~87% of their roster going forward with ~62% of their cap. Not going to be the easiest thing to do and they will likely end up having to move good players along the way (saying this now because I assume the fanbase will turn on anyone they trade to justify the move when in reality sometimes teams are forced to move good players).


*it’s early so I apologize if the calcs are off, but the general idea is still the same*

 

[Gary Nylund]

He’s worth it, however his deal is going to cause Toronto to have to make some tough decisions on guys like William Nylander, Jake Gardiner, and/or Nazem Kadri.

I would assume Matthews/Marner/Tavares are the absolute three they want to keep up front, and after this season, all three combined will make close to or eclipse 30M.

That’s ~38% of the cap currently, but will continue to go down as the cap increases. That means that Toronto has to fill ~87% of their roster going forward with ~62% of their cap.

*it’s early so I apologize if the calcs are off, but the general idea is still the same*

He sure is worth it and there will always be tough choices to be made when you're stacked with talent in this cap era. Better to have tough choices to make because you guys like Tavares though as opposed to having guys like JVR and Bozak.

 

[enigmatic]

JT sucks - jk he is very good

the snake will be a ppg - he is streaky and will go thru a little slump, then score 15 points in 8 games

to think he is as good as crosby though (not saying you are) is setting yourself up for disappointment - he is a superstar, but not on the OV, Crosby, Malking tier

 

[Flyers1928]

what do people expect, his careers years are just over a PPG

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Of course he isn’t. He wouldn’t have been worth it if he signed with my Islanders.

He will show worth during the playoffs and if Toronto wins a Cup in the next three years with the core in place, I’m sure Toronto and their fans will be perfectly happy overpaying him in years 4-7.

 

[ffh]

Is Tavares good. Yes.
Is he worth his contract. Not a chance.

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

Snake bitten you say? Biting himself huh?

Of course he is. After he and the Leafs set the world on fire early on, they set such a high standard for scoring which doesn't do him any favors when he hits his inevitable slump. He always breaks out of it and will get his usual ~75-80 points which I'll assume will be higher with who he now has riding shotgun.

 

[Spirit of 67]

 

[llamateizer]

I watched the Leafs game last night and was not impressed with Tavares at all. Looking back on his game logs / stats and after a hot start he has 1 goal in his last 10 games and 4 points in his last 8. Minus 4 over that period as well. How has he played overall?
His 11 million is already having an effect on future contracts by all accounts.
The last 4-5 years might be tough to swallow and the contract is almost buyout proof.

I watched the Red Wings game on November 3rd 2000 and was not impressed with Niklas Lidstrom at all. Looking back on his game log. he finished the game with -4

 

[FourRings]

He's very good. He won't be among the highest salaries in a season or two.

 

[Holymakinaw]

With Matthews out for a month, this is exactly when Tavares is worth every penny of his contract.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I dont think we know the answer for this for a while.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

He’s still above ppg. Watching more than one game before having an opinion is generally encouraged.

And almost never done.

 

[Advanced stats]

I’m sure Toronto and their fans will be perfectly happy overpaying him in years 4-7.

Expect it won't likely be considered an overpay by year 6-7. With the cap likely going up at least 15 million by then, 11 million will be fairly standard for first line star players. Tavares will still be in that tier by that time, so it'll look like a decent contract for the duration. Even if he's only putting up ~75 points.

 

[sr edler]

Ahah, Tavares is slumping with both Matthews and Nylander out? How convenient. And for only 11$ million a year.