Is something wrong with Dylan Larkin?

[Frk It]

I think he can be a high-end player. And, I wouldn't call him dumb, but I feel he doesn't have that elite vision a lot of playmaking number 1 center's do. I think positionally he possesses great hockey IQ. While the season at Michigan proves he can be an effective distributor, he has always been a bit more of a shoot first player going back to his USNDP years. In some ways he reminds me a bit of Nathan Mackinnon with his approach to the game, but they obviously have key differences (the most notable being Mackinnon is built like a tank and is much harder to knock off the puck), although I like Mackinnon's upside a bit more.

It will be interesting watching his transition over to center and how successful he is. At the moment I would take him top 5 in a 2014 re-draft, although I obviously have a slight bias towards my guy (Willy, so I'll avoid that discussion), but I do like his chances of out-performing Reinhart and Bennett.

I like Nylander a lot as well, even going all the way back to that draft. Agree that his (Larkin's) positioning is good, I think his ability to anticipate plays and be 1-2 steps ahead of what is happening is the biggest thing I question with him myself. The things that Datsyuk and Zetterberg made look so easy. On a side note, I think Larkin has the potential to be a really good defensive player. I also think if he continues to get stronger it will open up even more ice for him, and could lead to him playing a bit differently as well. He's definitely a work in progress still.

 

[zeke]

I think it's long past time people start seeing Detroit's kids for what they are, and stop polishing them as the next "hidden gem" that detroit managed to find.

It's been a long, long time since Detroit produced any studs. It's long past time they stop getting hyped as if they do.

Here's what they've produced from their last 15 drafts (not including the 2016 draft):


C Filppula (32): 745gms, 151gls, 409pts, 17:13 (82gms, 17gls, 45pts)
W Franzen (37): 602gms, 187gls, 370pts, 16:44 (82gms, 26gls, 50pts)
W Hudler (33): 683gms, 161gls, 418pts, 14:49 (82gms, 19gls, 50pts)

C Larkin (20): 111gms, 32gls, 56pts, 16:36 (82gms, 24gls, 41pts)
W Nyquist (27): 292gms, 80gls, 174pts, 15:39 (82gms, 23gls, 49pts)
W Tatar (26): 294gms, 78gls, 159pts, 14:51 (82gms, 22gls, 44pts)

C Helm (30): 460gms, 76gls, 169pts, 14:30 (82gms, 14gls, 30pts)
W Fleischmann (31): 657gms, 137gls, 335pts, 15:39 (82gms, 17gls, 42pts)
W Abdelkader (29): 502gms, 84gls, 182pts, 14:45 (82gms, 14gls, 30pts)

C Sheahan (25): 235gms, 36gls, 90pts, 14:00 (82gms, 13gls, 31pts)
W Jarnkrok (25): 196gms, 30gls, 64pts, 14:27 (82gms, 13gls, 27pts)
W Nestrasil (25): 125gms, 17gls, 48pts, 13:30 (82gms, 11gls, 32pts)

C Janmark (24): 73gms, 15gls, 29pts, 14:10 (82gms, 17gls, 33pts)
W Mantha (22): 26gms, 6gls, 10pts, 14:35 (82gms, 19gls, 32pts)
W Athanasiou (22): 54gs, 14gls, 20pts, 10:09 (82gms, 21gls, 30pts)

C Matthias (28): 489gms, 83gls, 162pts, 12:55 (82gms, 14gls, 27pts)
W Pulkkinen (25): 78gms, 12gls, 21pts, 11:08 (82gms, 12gls, 22pts)
W Jurco (24): 151gms, 15gls, 39pts, 11:13 (82gms, 8gls, 21pts)



D Quincey (31): 524gms, 32gls, 149pts, 20:35 (82gms, 5gls, 23pts)
D Ericsson (32): 506gms, 20gls, 103pts, 18:45 (82gms, 3gls, 17pts)

D Smith (27): 178gms, 15gls, 66pts, 17:55 (82gms, 7gls, 30pts)
D Kindl (29): 303gms, 16gls, 71pts, 15:44 (82gms, 4gls, 19pts)

D Marchenko (24): 102gms, 3gls, 18pts, 16:48 (82gms, 2gls, 15pts)
D Ouellet (23): 46gms, 2gls, 6pts, 16:23 (82gms, 4gls, 11pts)

D Sproul (23): 16gms, 1gls, 5pts, 16:16 (82gms, 5gls, 26pts)



G Howard (32): 391gms, .915sv%
G Mrazek (24): 112gms, .918sv%



That's a clear absence of any legit frontline talent from the system in the last decade and a half.

 

[Frk It]

I think it's long past time people start seeing Detroit's kids for what they are, and stop polishing them as the next "hidden gem" that detroit managed to find.

It's been a long, long time since Detroit produced any studs. It's long past time they stop getting hyped as if they do.

Here's what they've produced from their last 15 drafts (not including the 2016 draft):


C Filppula (32): 745gms, 151gls, 409pts, 17:13 (82gms, 17gls, 45pts)
W Franzen (37): 602gms, 187gls, 370pts, 16:44 (82gms, 26gls, 50pts)
W Hudler (33): 683gms, 161gls, 418pts, 14:49 (82gms, 19gls, 50pts)

C Larkin (20): 111gms, 32gls, 56pts, 16:36 (82gms, 24gls, 41pts)
W Nyquist (27): 292gms, 80gls, 174pts, 15:39 (82gms, 23gls, 49pts)
W Tatar (26): 294gms, 78gls, 159pts, 14:51 (82gms, 22gls, 44pts)

C Helm (30): 460gms, 76gls, 169pts, 14:30 (82gms, 14gls, 30pts)
W Fleischmann (31): 657gms, 137gls, 335pts, 15:39 (82gms, 17gls, 42pts)
W Abdelkader (29): 502gms, 84gls, 182pts, 14:45 (82gms, 14gls, 30pts)

C Sheahan (25): 235gms, 36gls, 90pts, 14:00 (82gms, 13gls, 31pts)
W Jarnkrok (25): 196gms, 30gls, 64pts, 14:27 (82gms, 13gls, 27pts)
W Nestrasil (25): 125gms, 17gls, 48pts, 13:30 (82gms, 11gls, 32pts)

C Janmark (24): 73gms, 15gls, 29pts, 14:10 (82gms, 17gls, 33pts)
W Mantha (22): 26gms, 6gls, 10pts, 14:35 (82gms, 19gls, 32pts)
W Athanasiou (22): 54gs, 14gls, 20pts, 10:09 (82gms, 21gls, 30pts)

C Matthias (28): 489gms, 83gls, 162pts, 12:55 (82gms, 14gls, 27pts)
W Pulkkinen (25): 78gms, 12gls, 21pts, 11:08 (82gms, 12gls, 22pts)
W Jurco (24): 151gms, 15gls, 39pts, 11:13 (82gms, 8gls, 21pts)



D Quincey (31): 524gms, 32gls, 149pts, 20:35 (82gms, 5gls, 23pts)
D Ericsson (32): 506gms, 20gls, 103pts, 18:45 (82gms, 3gls, 17pts)

D Smith (27): 178gms, 15gls, 66pts, 17:55 (82gms, 7gls, 30pts)
D Kindl (29): 303gms, 16gls, 71pts, 15:44 (82gms, 4gls, 19pts)

D Marchenko (24): 102gms, 3gls, 18pts, 16:48 (82gms, 2gls, 15pts)
D Ouellet (23): 46gms, 2gls, 6pts, 16:23 (82gms, 4gls, 11pts)

D Sproul (23): 16gms, 1gls, 5pts, 16:16 (82gms, 5gls, 26pts)



G Howard (32): 391gms, .915sv%
G Mrazek (24): 112gms, .918sv%



That's a clear absence of any legit frontline talent from the system in the last decade and a half.

Franzen was a legitimate first line player from 08-12.

Mrazek is one of the best young starting goalies in the league.

A lot of the perception you are referring to, is because Detroit does really well relative to where they pick.

Example -- Nyquist isn't a star player. But Nyquist is a very, very good 4th round pick. He's probably better than half the players taken in the top 10 from his draft class.

But what you are saying is true to an extent, and the Red Wings current place in the standings would reflect that. I think that is is incredibly difficult to find stud players with where the Red Wings normally draft, and they also traded away a lot of draft picks when they were still contending as well.

 

[Fear]

He will not be a successful center at the NHL level. His skillset is much better suited to the wing.

 

[Martinez]

Awful team.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Sophomore slump and bad team.

 

[Martinez]

^ exactly what I'm talking about. He is the next Yzerman according to some.

I've heard toews mostly. 60 pt two way center. Yzerman would be pretty sweet though

 

[bethylfan]

I remember last year Larkin was being really hyped up. Some ppl were thinking Detroit had done it again. But I took a look at his stats today and was surprised. 11 points in 30 games? 30 point pace.....

Umm am I missing something? Are his point totals not representative of his play? Is he okay? I haven't really watched Detroit but I always thought he was in the ehlers/nylander tier.

Not like the rest of the team are lighting it up right now.

 

[bethylfan]

He plays for the Detroit Red Wings.

The same DRW that have been making the playoffs for over 30 years straight? YEP.

 

[Claypool]

The same DRW that have been making the playoffs for over 30 years straight? YEP.

No, this Detroit Red Wings

 

[newfy]

Interesting.... I remember wings fans going crazy last year saying he was the first teenager in 20 something years to make the team

I remember wings fans saying he was better than nylander.

Funny to see this happen to him and now to see fans blaming the "team"

He was over hyped last year and won't be as good as wings fans thought he was gonna be but hes not as bad as he seems to be this year either.

Glad to see the hype has died down though

Funny to see you make this thread and act like you just want to discuss Larkin and then you pop back in and you see its really youre butt hurt because people think he is/was better than Nylander.

You say he is on pace for 30 points, sure thats true. But why dont you mention that hes on pace for over 25 goals on arguably the worst offensive hockey team in the league. There havent been many players recently that come into the league as teenagers, score 23 goals, be on pace for over 25 the next year and have threads made about how overhyped they are. He might not be the best passer the world has ever seen, but I'm also not going to pretend that alot of bad luck hasnt helped contribute to his total of 2 assists on the year. That is **** poor luck.

I mean Nylander is on a top ten offensive team, I'm sure Larkin could pick up a couple of secondary assists at least on a top ten offensive team with a middle of the pack PP.

Watch him play and he looks dangerous like many have said. Hes on pace for 25 goals on one of the worst offensive teams in the league. He absolutely still deserves to be hyped as a similar prospect to Nylander

 

[Syckle78]

The same DRW that have been making the playoffs for over 30 years straight? YEP.

I must of fell asleep for quite a few years.

 

[Paradise*]

I must of fell asleep for quite a few years.

25, 26...30+ years. They're all the same

 

[Christ]

He was never as good as people were making him out to be last year.

Note: This is not me saying he's bad. He's good, very good... but he was severly overhyped last season. He's also much better than an 11 pt in 30 game player so do not take this as me ripping him. I'm just saying his lore grew last year and he was never as good as it appeared.

Agreed. That said, on a better team, I expect that his stats would look better. Detroit is not a good team anymore...at all. I wonder how the fames Red Wings scouting will do with high draft picks for a change?

 

[Birko19]

I think it's long past time people start seeing Detroit's kids for what they are, and stop polishing them as the next "hidden gem" that detroit managed to find.

It's been a long, long time since Detroit produced any studs. It's long past time they stop getting hyped as if they do.

Here's what they've produced from their last 15 drafts (not including the 2016 draft):


C Filppula (32): 745gms, 151gls, 409pts, 17:13 (82gms, 17gls, 45pts)
W Franzen (37): 602gms, 187gls, 370pts, 16:44 (82gms, 26gls, 50pts)
W Hudler (33): 683gms, 161gls, 418pts, 14:49 (82gms, 19gls, 50pts)

C Larkin (20): 111gms, 32gls, 56pts, 16:36 (82gms, 24gls, 41pts)
W Nyquist (27): 292gms, 80gls, 174pts, 15:39 (82gms, 23gls, 49pts)
W Tatar (26): 294gms, 78gls, 159pts, 14:51 (82gms, 22gls, 44pts)

C Helm (30): 460gms, 76gls, 169pts, 14:30 (82gms, 14gls, 30pts)
W Fleischmann (31): 657gms, 137gls, 335pts, 15:39 (82gms, 17gls, 42pts)
W Abdelkader (29): 502gms, 84gls, 182pts, 14:45 (82gms, 14gls, 30pts)

C Sheahan (25): 235gms, 36gls, 90pts, 14:00 (82gms, 13gls, 31pts)
W Jarnkrok (25): 196gms, 30gls, 64pts, 14:27 (82gms, 13gls, 27pts)
W Nestrasil (25): 125gms, 17gls, 48pts, 13:30 (82gms, 11gls, 32pts)

C Janmark (24): 73gms, 15gls, 29pts, 14:10 (82gms, 17gls, 33pts)
W Mantha (22): 26gms, 6gls, 10pts, 14:35 (82gms, 19gls, 32pts)
W Athanasiou (22): 54gs, 14gls, 20pts, 10:09 (82gms, 21gls, 30pts)

C Matthias (28): 489gms, 83gls, 162pts, 12:55 (82gms, 14gls, 27pts)
W Pulkkinen (25): 78gms, 12gls, 21pts, 11:08 (82gms, 12gls, 22pts)
W Jurco (24): 151gms, 15gls, 39pts, 11:13 (82gms, 8gls, 21pts)



D Quincey (31): 524gms, 32gls, 149pts, 20:35 (82gms, 5gls, 23pts)
D Ericsson (32): 506gms, 20gls, 103pts, 18:45 (82gms, 3gls, 17pts)

D Smith (27): 178gms, 15gls, 66pts, 17:55 (82gms, 7gls, 30pts)
D Kindl (29): 303gms, 16gls, 71pts, 15:44 (82gms, 4gls, 19pts)

D Marchenko (24): 102gms, 3gls, 18pts, 16:48 (82gms, 2gls, 15pts)
D Ouellet (23): 46gms, 2gls, 6pts, 16:23 (82gms, 4gls, 11pts)

D Sproul (23): 16gms, 1gls, 5pts, 16:16 (82gms, 5gls, 26pts)



G Howard (32): 391gms, .915sv%
G Mrazek (24): 112gms, .918sv%



That's a clear absence of any legit frontline talent from the system in the last decade and a half.

Few things to consider:

- In the past 15 years the Wings drafted in the 1st round 7 times.

- None of the 7 times they drafted has been in the top-10, the highest they've drafted was 15th overall followed by 19th twice and 20th.

- Most of their high 1st rounders have been from recent drafts where the players are still young to make any actual full judgment on, Larkin is 20, Mantha is 22, and Svechnikov is 19.

- A lot of the players your mentioned are gems when you consider their draft positions. Like it or not but Franzen, Filppula, Hudler, Nyquist, and Tatar are all legitimate top-6 players. Mrazek and Howard are legitimate starting goalies. While players like Helm and Abdelkader are significant bottom 6 guys.

- In the past 15 years the Wings have not missed the playoffs and were a competitive team for more than half of that time winning the cup twice, so missing all these high draft picks did not go to waste.

Now that I said all of this, your homework is to go find me another team that had similar draft pick positions and amount of 1st rounders in the past 15 years that actually did better than the Wings, I'll be shocked if you can find more than 2 or 3 teams and even with those, the Wings did better overall.

 

[scan15*]

Funny to see you make this thread and act like you just want to discuss Larkin and then you pop back in and you see its really youre butt hurt because people think he is/was better than Nylander.

You say he is on pace for 30 points, sure thats true. But why dont you mention that hes on pace for over 25 goals on arguably the worst offensive hockey team in the league. There havent been many players recently that come into the league as teenagers, score 23 goals, be on pace for over 25 the next year and have threads made about how overhyped they are. He might not be the best passer the world has ever seen, but I'm also not going to pretend that alot of bad luck hasnt helped contribute to his total of 2 assists on the year. That is **** poor luck.

I mean Nylander is on a top ten offensive team, I'm sure Larkin could pick up a couple of secondary assists at least on a top ten offensive team with a middle of the pack PP.

Watch him play and he looks dangerous like many have said. Hes on pace for 25 goals on one of the worst offensive teams in the league. He absolutely still deserves to be hyped as a similar prospect to Nylander

Nylander is actually leading the team in primary assists.

But I do agree with you that Larkin is a good player stuck on a bad team. Hope it doesn't affect his development.

 

[NotYou]

Friendly reminder that sophomore slump isn't a thing in hockey even though it sounds nice

 

[MessierII]

He was just way overhyped last year.

 

[newfy]

Nylander is actually leading the team in primary assists.

But I do agree with you that Larkin is a good player stuck on a bad team. Hope it doesn't affect his development.

I should've been more clear, I wasnt meaning to say that Nylander is just getting abunch of secondary assists to get points. I think hes a stud young player much like Larkin.

What I was trying to say more is playing with a better offensive team like Nylander has I'm sure Larkin would have a few more assists even if theyre just lucky secondary type assists.

Instead of talking about him being on pace for 30 points, if he even has 5 secondary assists on a powerplay with Matthews or Marner were sitting here with him on pace for something like 45 points and 25 goals. Thats still pretty solid for a young guy and no one is talking about him being a bust. I mean hes one of Detroits best possession forwards (behind Zetterberg for guys who are full time this year), on pace for over 25 goals and looks dangerous out there to anyone who watches him. A few more assists and no one is even thinking this a little bit

 

[FlashyG]

The main difference is the switch in position from the wing to center and the ever fluctuating line mates he seems to have.

If you watch him play he's still the most dangerous player on the team most nights even if he's not scoring.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

I like to call it Jeff Friesen syndrome.

 

[NeelyWasAWarrior]

he never did strike me as a first tier player. He's more of a solid guy not a star kinda player.

Tough to score goals in this league.

 

[IPW]

 

[Real Smart Sens Fan]

He was never as good as people were making him out to be last year.

Note: This is not me saying he's bad. He's good, very good... but he was severly overhyped last season. He's also much better than an 11 pt in 30 game player so do not take this as me ripping him. I'm just saying his lore grew last year and he was never as good as it appeared.

I agree with this. Great player, could/should be a top liner for a while, but he's no Zetterberg or Datsyuk.

 

[Semantics]

They really don't. Wings prospect threads can go years without barely a post in them on the prospect board. You probably haven't heard much about Mantha the last few years and he's been very, very good lately.

You can't be serious. Mantha is like exhibit A for Detroit prospects being overhyped. He was compared to Mario Lemieux on here. Probably the only player other than Laine to draw that analogy.

Last year Wings fans wouldn't shut up about Larkin's +/-. We told them it was unsustainable, that his absurd 109 PDO would regress to something more reasonable, but they just refused to believe this, and went into full advanced stats denial mode. As always, at the end of the day, advanced stats when applied correctly wins.

Karma stings, doesn't it?