Is something wrong with Dylan Larkin?

[authentic]

I don't think he's expected to be an offensive dynamo. Fast player but he is probably good for 50-60 points at some point (not this season) and I wouldn't expect much more than that.

 

[LeafFever]

Detroit prospects get ridiculously overhyped.

 

[dragonballgtz]

He's been Blash'd. Seriously our coach sucks and it's ruining the teams overall production output as well.

 

[93LEAFS]

Laine has more goals than Larkin's most common 4 linemates COMBINED. Ehlers 2 most common linemates have almost as many goals combined as Larkin's 10 (!) most common linemates have combined.

Larkin would be on track for a 'step forward' if anyone else but him could score on the Wings.

And none of this has to do with him being a sophomore. My point wasn't really making a judgment on the players, just more pointing out the distribution of this claimed sophomore slump.

I already pointed to his bad puck luck in my previous post. I don't believe Larkin will evolve into a true #1 Franchise center (although he has that ceiling obviously), but if he can play center at this level (which is unclear if he can at the moment), he could develop into a Ryan Kesler type player, which is an extremely valuable 2nd line all situations center on contending teams.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Sophomore slump but also over hyped last year.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Don't really agree with the overhyped last year comments. If you actually dig into the numbers, Larkin's production was insane at this point last year. He had 22 points in his first 28 games (tied with Matthews) with limited PP time. He was top 10 in even strength goals and points, and was behind only Kane and Karlsson in terms of percentage of his teams points at even strength.

Yes, he has slowed down a lot since then, but he absolutely carried the Wings up until this point last year and was worthy of the praised received. He's young and has plenty of things to work on, but the potential to be an elite player is there.

 

[Claypool]

Sophomore slump but also over hyped last year.

Overhyped? Lead the team in goals, most points by a Red Wings rookie forward since Yzerman. Lead the team in +/-. He was the team's best player at 19. The hype was absolutely justified and still is.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Could be a sophomore slump.

Either way he's one of the top defending forwards in the league. His goal total will be fine. So you gotta admit his team is the problem here

Actually he's leading in goals on the team unless the stats are lying to me. Maybe aa or vanek could beat him had they played 30 but he's still leading and he could be in a sophomore slump. So yeah that spells terrible team that can't score

 

[Pavels Dog]

Detroit prospects get ridiculously overhyped.

They really don't. Wings prospect threads can go years without barely a post in them on the prospect board. You probably haven't heard much about Mantha the last few years and he's been very, very good lately.

 

[CptPicard]

In the couple of Wings games I've watched this season he was the most dangerous player. Just snakebitten maybe?

 

[DeYarmond Edison]

He's been Detroit's (who may be the leagues worst team) most dangerous looking player night in and night out.

If you watch the games, it's obvious. If you want to look at current point totals and make ignorant assumptions, that's cool too. (btw he's on pace for more goals than he had last year, so...)

 

[Frk It]

Agreed, I'm sure if you examined players in their sophomore years there is no wider variation from one year to the next than in most cases. It is just an old cliche. I mean, look at the amount of sophomore's breaking out from his draft class. Ehlers and Fabbri all look pretty good whereas Bennett, Larkin and Reinhart have stagnated or not taken a step forward.

Gave 3 examples of sophomore slumps, but also says it doesn't exist??? Or are you saying that stagnating in year 2 =/= slumping?

And none of this has to do with him being a sophomore. My point wasn't really making a judgment on the players, just more pointing out the distribution of this claimed sophomore slump.

I already pointed to his bad puck luck in my previous post. I don't believe Larkin will evolve into a true #1 Franchise center (although he has that ceiling obviously), but if he can play center at this level (which is unclear if he can at the moment), he could develop into a Ryan Kesler type player, which is an extremely valuable 2nd line all situations center on contending teams.

I think it's far too early to try and pigeon-hole what Larkin can and can't become. Especially on a team with the worst group of puck moving D in the league IMO, and that has no structure or flow right now.

I've only caught him play two games this year vs the Jets. Looked dominant. I'd be hesitant to say "he will never be a 1C" or cap his potential at this point. He's an excellent player and he's only 21.

That's my take too, but we will see where he ends up.

 

[Nithoniniel]

The thing with Larkin is whether he scores or not, he looks good on the ice most of the time. He still has a lot of learning to do, but in a nutshell, he's transitioning to center, playing against tougher lines, and on a crappier lineup is all a contribution to why hes doing bad offensively.

Agreed.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Overhyped? Lead the team in goals, most points by a Red Wings rookie forward since Yzerman. Lead the team in +/-. He was the team's best player at 19. The hype was absolutely justified and still is.

^ exactly what I'm talking about. He is the next Yzerman according to some.

 

[Frk It]

^ exactly what I'm talking about. He is the next Yzerman according to some.

No, that is just stating a fact. Most points by a Red Wings rookie forward since Yzerman is a fact.

Saying he is the next Yzerman is an opinion. And... no one said that.

 

[BDizzle*]

Meh, good player for sure but never going to be elite. He was overhyped last year because he outplayed his draft status. Now he is back to reality.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Gave 3 examples of sophomore slumps, but also says it doesn't exist??? Or are you saying that stagnating in year 2 =/= slumping?

No, he's saying that many players, across the league vary from year to year. Sometimes it's in year 2, sometimes in year 3, 4, 5, etc.. and he's implying that the amount of players that have an "off year" in year 2 isn't any different than number of players that have an off year in other seasons.

 

[Frk It]

No, he's saying that many players, across the league vary from year to year. Sometimes it's in year 2, sometimes in year 3, 4, 5, etc.. and he's implying that the amount of players that have an "off year" in year 2 isn't any different than number of players that have an off year in other seasons.

AH, okay. That makes sense. That I would agree with.

 

[nbwingsfan]

^ exactly what I'm talking about. He is the next Yzerman according to some.

Show me where he said he was the next Yzerman? He stated a fact that he had the most points for a Wings rookie since Yzerman.

Matthews had more goals in his first game than Gretzky. Am I saying Matthews > Gretzky?

 

[93LEAFS]

Gave 3 examples of sophomore slumps, but also says it doesn't exist??? Or are you saying that stagnating in year 2 =/= slumping?

I don't believe that is a slump caused by being in your second year. I don't think its any different than the regular distribution of players improving, stagnating or stepping back over the regular patterns of the league. People just take more notice of it because a player decreases from a 1-year sample size. I mean, is Monahan, Barkov, and Mackinnon having a senior year slump? I find the same thing is said about rookies about how they slow down in the 2nd half, when I would argue the distribution among slumps and hot streaks is about evenly distributed, the only thing that impacts it a bit is survivorship bias, because rookies who slump early get sent down, whereas rookies who stay after a hot start are likely to be given more lee-way to work themselves out of a slump.

I think it's far too early to try and pigeon-hole what Larkin can and can't become. Especially on a team with the worst group of puck moving D in the league IMO, and that has no structure or flow right now.

I don't see him having the vision and playmaking creativity, I find he has trouble slowing down the game to a solid pace to get his teammates involved. He can be a #1 franchise center, I just wouldn't bet on it right now. We make predictions about these kids when they are 17 at the draft all the time. You have every right and some valid evidence to believe he can be a franchise #1C, just in my viewings I don't really see it. He can be a key player on a winning team.

 

[Ishad]

He's leading the team in goals. Which should give you enough insight into the wings current situation.

 

[Frk It]

I don't see him having the vision and playmaking creativity, I find he has trouble slowing down the game to a solid pace to get his teammates involved. He can be a #1 franchise center, I just wouldn't bet on it right now. We make predictions about these kids when they are 17 at the draft all the time. You have every right and some valid evidence to believe he can be a franchise #1C, just in my viewings I don't really see it. He can be a key player on a winning team.

I think that is a valid assessment and concern of his play in the NHL so far. It's my opinion that there is more to him than what he has shown so far in the NHL.

I think he sees the ice very well. I don't think he lacks hockey IQ or vision to make plays. I think that on a better team he would play a bit differently. I think he tries to do a lot (possibly too much himself) on the Wings, for a few reasons. A lot of our forwards are passive, and are not North/South players, and like to over-pass the puck. Larkin does not play this way or seem to like to play that way. So again, I think he takes matters in his own hands a lot. I also think that because he is such a powerful skater, he can get to an soft spot and get a shot on net almost whenever he wants, and he defers to this (because it's an easy play for him) sometimes instead of letting plays develop.

But he had a 2:1 assist ratio at Michigan, he has shown an ability to be more of a playmaker in the past. I don't think he lacks vision or hockey IQ. I think he just needs to learn to be patient and trust in his teammates a little more, and I think as the Wings re-build he will get some guys he will gel with and it will help him. I think a guy like Svechnikov or Givani Smith he would play really well with.

His playmaking/assist production is the biggest X factor in what level player he ultimately becomes. We will have to wait and see how he develops there.

 

[93LEAFS]

Overhyped? Lead the team in goals, most points by a Red Wings rookie forward since Yzerman. Lead the team in +/-. He was the team's best player at 19. The hype was absolutely justified and still is.

You probably meant to add the qualifier of teenager in that sentence. Fedorov crushed Larkin's numbers.

 

[93LEAFS]

I think that is a valid assessment and concern of his play in the NHL so far. It's my opinion that there is more to him than what he has shown so far in the NHL.

I think he sees the ice very well. I don't think he lacks hockey IQ or vision to make plays. I think that on a better team he would play a bit differently. I think he tries to do a lot (possibly too much himself) on the Wings, for a few reasons. A lot of our forwards are passive, and are not North/South players, and like to over-pass the puck. Larkin does not play this way or seem to like to play that way. So again, I think he takes matters in his own hands a lot. I also think that because he is such a powerful skater, he can get to an soft spot and get a shot on net almost whenever he wants, and he defers to this (because it's an easy play for him) sometimes instead of letting plays develop.

But he had a 2:1 assist ratio at Michigan, he has shown an ability to be more of a playmaker in the past. I don't think he lacks vision or hockey IQ. I think he just needs to learn to be patient and trust in his teammates a little more, and I think as the Wings re-build he will get some guys he will get with and it will help him. I think a guy like Svechnikov or Givani Smith he would play really well with.

His playmaking/assist production is the biggest X factor in what level player he ultimately becomes. We will have to wait and see how he develops there.

I think he can be a high-end player. And, I wouldn't call him dumb, but I feel he doesn't have that elite vision a lot of playmaking number 1 center's do. I think positionally he possesses great hockey IQ. While the season at Michigan proves he can be an effective distributor, he has always been a bit more of a shoot first player going back to his USNDP years. In some ways he reminds me a bit of Nathan Mackinnon with his approach to the game, but they obviously have key differences (the most notable being Mackinnon is built like a tank and is much harder to knock off the puck), although I like Mackinnon's upside a bit more.

It will be interesting watching his transition over to center and how successful he is. At the moment I would take him top 5 in a 2014 re-draft, although I obviously have a slight bias towards my guy (Willy, so I'll avoid that discussion), but I do like his chances of out-performing Reinhart and Bennett.

 

[Syckle78]

^ exactly what I'm talking about. He is the next Yzerman according to some.

You have the reading comprehension of a rock if that's what you got from that post.