Is Ovechkin a top 5 forward in the league?

[Nemesis Prime]

1) McDavid
2) Kucherov
3) Crosby
4) MacKinnon
5) Kane
6) Barkov
7) Matthews
8) Bergeron
9) Giroux
10) Hall
11) Wheeler
12) Malkin
13) Marchand
14) Stone
15) Tavares

No Draisaitl but Matthews and Tavares? top kek

Anywho, yes Ovechkin is.

 

[tony d]

No, he's close but right now I have Crosby, Mcdavid, Kucherov, Mackinnon and Kane ahead of him as forwards.

 

[robertmac43]

One of the most deadly scorers but not one of the top forwards in the leagues at this point.

 

[JoVel]

I provided you the facts. He clearly would. If you want to continue believing incorrect information based on faulty logic, that's your choice.

"Facts"

 

[Regal]

I provided you the facts. He clearly would. If you want to continue believing incorrect information based on faulty logic, that's your choice.

You provided G/60 numbers. Unless you can prove that those numbers would hold over Ovechkin's minutes, you haven't provided any facts that he would. The only "faulty logic" is believing that G/60 can be used as a projection

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

How is Kane ahead of OV? Kane hasn't been in the playoffs the last 2 seasons (not his fault, but still) and had a shit season in 17/18. OV meanwhile was the best player in the playoffs in 17/18 and again in 18/19 (1 round I know). Kane had a better 18/19 regular season but the gap in their 17/18 regular season and OV's playoffs more than makes up for that.

Same thing with Crosby. OV was better in the 17/18 and 18/19 playoffs and way better in the 17/18 regular season. Even if you want to say Crosby was slightly better this regular season, it's not making up for the advantage OV has.

MacK is close enough in the regular season and they each were better 1 year in the playoffs so there's no issue there.

McDavid and Kucherov are obviously 1 and 2.

FYI, I'm using 2 seasons because that's when MacK broke out. So if someone (you know who) runs in saying Crosby was better than OV in 15/16 or 16/17 or whatever, then using that logic MacK doesn't belong in the top 5 because he was clearly behind all of these guys at that time.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You provided G/60 numbers. Unless you can prove that those numbers would hold over Ovechkin's minutes, you haven't provided any facts that he would. The only "faulty logic" is believing that G/60 can be used as a projection

I provided the rate at which he scores goals on the PP, which is more than Ovechkin. You haven't provided any evidence that those numbers would not hold over Ovechkin's minutes, much less dropping so much that it more than offsets his superiority at ES. Those numbers actually underrate Matthews' goal-scoring ability in direct comparison.

 

[Regal]

How is Kane ahead of OV? Kane hasn't been in the playoffs the last 2 seasons (not his fault, but still) and had a **** season in 17/18. OV meanwhile was the best player in the playoffs in 17/18 and again in 18/19 (1 round I know). Kane had a better 18/19 regular season but the gap in their 17/18 regular season and OV's playoffs more than makes up for that.

Same thing with Crosby. OV was better in the 17/18 and 18/19 playoffs and way better in the 17/18 regular season. Even if you want to say Crosby was slightly better this regular season, it's not making up for the advantage OV has.

MacK is close enough in the regular season and they each were better 1 year in the playoffs so there's no issue there.

McDavid and Kucherov are obviously 1 and 2.

FYI, I'm using 2 seasons because that's when MacK broke out. So if someone (you know who) runs in saying Crosby was better than OV in 15/16 or 16/17 or whatever, then using that logic MacK doesn't belong in the top 5 because he was clearly behind all of these guys at that time.

Putting all players under the same time frame is faulty, because each individual is different. Kane and Crosby's '18 seasons were clearly outliers, and MacKinnon past two seasons are also clearly a breakout. For a player like MacKinnon, it's clear the last two years are the most important. For Crosby and Kane, it's clear that using the last two is going to underrate them due to the outliers.

It's similar to going into last year. Ovechkin had a down year for production in '17, so some people (mainly Fins) were calling Laine the best goalscorer because he had a better GPG over those two seasons (and only 2 fewer in total). This came to a head when Laine had his hot November and became the goal leader since he entered the league. But it was clear that focusing on only 2 years underrated Ovechkin because of the one outlier and calling anyone the best goalscorer but the guy who had won the Richard in 5 of the past 6 years at the time, including the previous year was absurd. However, it was also clear that several players had broken out in those two years. For example, Pastrnak was a .5 PPG player in '16, then a 0.9+ PPG player in '17 and '18. Based on how last year went, if you had judged Ovechkin and Pastrnak by only the previous two seasons, you would have underrated Ovechkin and rated Pastrnak properly, but if you included years beyond the previous two for both, Ovechkin would have been rated properly and Pastrnak would have been underrated. Using a set system for every player sounds the most objective, but it's far too rigid to properly evaluate everyone. Their seasons need to be looked at within the context of the player'scareer.

 

[Regal]

I provided the rate at which he scores goals on the PP, which is more than Ovechkin. You haven't provided any evidence that those numbers would not hold over Ovechkin's minutes, much less dropping so much that it more than offsets his superiority at ES. Those numbers actually underrate Matthews' goal-scoring ability in direct comparison.

You're arguing that he would score more goals than Ovechkin if he was given those minutes. Burden of proof is on you and G/60 isn't proof

 

[Dekes For Days]

You're arguing that he would score more goals than Ovechkin if he was given those minutes. Burden of proof is on you and G/60 isn't proof

Burden of proof is not on me. You came in dismissing valuable statistics that do show that Matthews would score more goals. You're suggesting that the rate that he scores goals over a big sample is suddenly going to drastically drop for no explainable reason as he enters his prime and gets better PP deployment.

 

[Regal]

Burden of proof is not on me. You came in dismissing valuable statistics that do show that Matthews would score more goals. You're suggesting that the rate that he scores goals over a big sample is suddenly going to drastically drop for no explainable reason as he enters his prime and gets better PP deployment.

They absolutely do not show with any degree of certainty that he would though. That's the point. Minutes are not the same as games played and can't be used to project over the course of a game. There are lots of factors that go in to how minutes are dispersed that can't be fully accounted for. For example, changing immediately after the puck leaves the zone after setting up. Staying out for most of a powerplay is generally going to lead to more time transitioning into the zone, and more wasted time leading to less efficiency in per minute numbers. It's also been shown that players tend to have worse per minute numbers in higher minute games, largely because they usually play more in games they're behind because they haven't scored.

Also, he doesn't need to drastically drop his numbers, as he's not significantly ahead of Ovechkin, and his numbers are also highly propped up by last season, which is yet to be seen if it's repeatable. It's also interesting that you used the last two years when Ovechkin has a better G/60 on the PP over Matthews career. Mainly because again last year is the biggest influence on his averages.

Per minute numbers simply can't be projected linearly, and don't mean what you think they mean. That's the actual facts.

 

[Dekes For Days]

They absolutely do not show with any degree of certainty that he would though.

They suggest it's very, very likely that he would, because he's the better goal-scorer.

There are lots of factors that go in to how minutes are dispersed that can't be fully accounted for.

It wouldn't have that big of an effect and those things tend to even out over a sample this big.

It's also been shown that players tend to have worse per minute numbers in higher minute games, largely because they usually play more in games they're behind because they haven't scored.

Which has to do with score effects and absolutely nothing to do with how minutes affect rates.

Also, he doesn't need to drastically drop his numbers, as he's not significantly ahead of Ovechkin

Matthews is ~10% ahead over the last 2 years, and ~33% ahead last year under similar conditions. And that's not even getting into him being ahead at ES, despite the linemate disadvantages. That is not insignificant.

and his numbers are also highly propped up by last season, which is yet to be seen if it's repeatable.

His numbers are not propped up by last season at all. If anything, his numbers are suppressed by his 2nd season, where he got horrible 2nd unit deployment with bad players and got statistically unlucky on top of it. Last season was the only season where their PP conditions were somewhat similar and Matthews blew Ovechkin out of the water.

Matthews' numbers dropping that much or at all doesn't make any sense. It's not like they are out of line for the quality of goal-scorer he is. If anything, they are low for the quality of goal-scorer he is and will keep rising as he enters his prime.

You're just trying to find excuses to keep Ovechkin at the top because of your pre-determined beliefs, despite plenty of evidence to the contrary.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Ovechkin was once big threat all over the ice but he's one dimensional now. Still the best trigger man but he leans heavily on his linemates. It's laughable to say he's better than Crosby or Kane. Crosby has out pointed him in 7 consecutive seasons, just had 100 points and was 4th in selke voting. I'd put Ovechkin somewhere around 8-15.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Putting all players under the same time frame is faulty, because each individual is different. Kane and Crosby's '18 seasons were clearly outliers...

It was Crosby's 4th consecutive 80-something point season. Not seeing how that's an outlier.

 

[JackSlater]

No, but probably on the low end of the top ten.

 

[Dion TheFluff]

That's a lie. The only players with 0,3 PPG or higher than Ovechkin are McDavid and Kucherov. Ovechkin had 1.08 PPG the last two seasons and the third highest scoring forward was Marchand/MacKinnon with 1.26 PPG. I'm quite sure 0.18 is quite far away from 0.3 higher. Also Tavares and Matthews have lower PPG than Ovechkin over the last two seasons and Barkov have the same.

Claude Giroux as you mention is nowhere close to Ovechkin. His 11 points more scored over the last two seasons arent close to matching the value of Ovechkin's 44 goals more scored. A goal is way way more valuable than an assist. Not to mention Giroux's horrible performance in the playoffs in the one season of the last two where he was able to bring the Flyers there. Wheeler is just as ridiculous a guy with 44 goals scored over the last season with only 6 points more scored is nowhere close to Ovechkin. Malkin was garbage last year for the Penguins and need to step up a lot to be in the discussion to be better than Ovechkin. Even Crosby's numbers don't look better than Ovechkin's over the last two seasons. I wouldn't give up 18 goals a season for 25 assists.

Like most say I would put McDavid and Kucherov in the top 5 for sure then the last three spots is close between Mack, Crosby, Kane and Ovechkin. I would have him top 5.

sorry meant 0.03 will edit

 

[Bounces R Way]

For me he is. You can talk all you want about team relative expected dump ins/60 but I tend to like players who can win you games.

You win games by scoring more goals than the other guys. Ovechkin is the GOAT goal scorer.

 

[Regal]

It was Crosby's 4th consecutive 80-something point season. Not seeing how that's an outlier.

Scoring went up so he was worse relative to the league and he was a poor ES producer. He wasn't as good as his numbers that year. He also didn't miss any games, and despite your beliefs most people consider PPG when evaluating players. It's interesting that you focus solely on points for your point here though when Crosby won the Richard the year before this.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I provided the rate at which he scores goals on the PP, which is more than Ovechkin. You haven't provided any evidence that those numbers would not hold over Ovechkin's minutes, much less dropping so much that it more than offsets his superiority at ES. Those numbers actually underrate Matthews' goal-scoring ability in direct comparison.

Not all PP minutes are created equal. Part of what makes up Ovechkin's total number of minutes on the PP is because he stays out for 1:30 to almost the full 2 minutes. So the difference between the number of minutes Matthews gets on the PP and the number Ovechkin gets comes down to Matthews playing the first 1:05 of the PP then being pulled off, whereas Ovechkin plays 1:30 before being pulled off. Because that's where Matthews' extra hypothetical minutes would come from; he'd be staying on another 30 seconds for each PP, rather than being pulled off at around a minute to 1:15.

So for production to remain constant in more minutes like you're suggesting, you'd first have to prove that Ovechkin's production in the final 40 seconds he stays out there longer than the top unit as it is for the first minute of the PP, when the top unit is out there and still fresh. You can't simply assume that the extra PP minutes consist of a fresh top unit who comes out right at the beginning of the PP. You'd be talking about Matthews getting an extra 20+ seconds at the tail end of the PP, when most of the top unit is already changed and Matthews has already spent over a minute on the ice.

 

[Rebels57]

Best goal scorer but not top 5 all-around.

 

[Varan]

Not all PP minutes are created equal. Part of what makes up Ovechkin's total number of minutes on the PP is because he stays out for 1:30 to almost the full 2 minutes. So the difference between the number of minutes Matthews gets on the PP and the number Ovechkin gets comes down to Matthews playing the first 1:05 of the PP then being pulled off, whereas Ovechkin plays 1:30 before being pulled off. Because that's where Matthews' extra hypothetical minutes would come from; he'd be staying on another 30 seconds for each PP, rather than being pulled off at around a minute to 1:15.

So for production to remain constant in more minutes like you're suggesting, you'd first have to prove that Ovechkin's production in the final 40 seconds he stays out there longer than the top unit as it is for the first minute of the PP, when the top unit is out there and still fresh. You can't simply assume that the extra PP minutes consist of a fresh top unit who comes out right at the beginning of the PP. You'd be talking about Matthews getting an extra 20+ seconds at the tail end of the PP, when most of the top unit is already changed and Matthews has already spent over a minute on the ice.

too much logic, stop

 

[Dekes For Days]

Not all PP minutes are created equal. Part of what makes up Ovechkin's total number of minutes on the PP is because he stays out for 1:30 to almost the full 2 minutes. So the difference between the number of minutes Matthews gets on the PP and the number Ovechkin gets comes down to Matthews playing the first 1:05 of the PP then being pulled off, whereas Ovechkin plays 1:30 before being pulled off. Because that's where Matthews' extra hypothetical minutes would come from; he'd be staying on another 30 seconds for each PP, rather than being pulled off at around a minute to 1:15.

So for production to remain constant in more minutes like you're suggesting, you'd first have to prove that Ovechkin's production in the final 40 seconds he stays out there longer than the top unit as it is for the first minute of the PP, when the top unit is out there and still fresh. You can't simply assume that the extra PP minutes consist of a fresh top unit who comes out right at the beginning of the PP. You'd be talking about Matthews getting an extra 20+ seconds at the tail end of the PP, when most of the top unit is already changed and Matthews has already spent over a minute on the ice.

Well if we're going to nitpick like that, how do we account for the disadvantage of PP setups where the entire purpose isn't to just pass the puck to Ovechkin for a one-timer into an empty net?

First off, you're not even really correct. While Ovechkin does stay on more than his peers sometimes for the 2nd unit, the main difference is the additional PPs his team has gotten, and the fact that the entire 1st unit stays on for a large majority of the available PP time. Outside of the 1st unit, the most a player on their team has played on the PP is 1:14 per game over the last 2 years, and there are only two players over a minute.

I have seen no evidence that extra PP time is detrimental to a player's scoring rate. Players barely move on the PP, especially Ovechkin; they don't need to play the same as an ES shift. What may effect his production is playing with lesser linemates as part of a 2nd unit, but Matthews did that over half of that sample, so there isn't any comparison. As I said, those numbers actually undervalue Matthews. I'd like to have a bigger sample, but the gap last year when both were on their team's #1 PP unit is gigantic, and most Leaf fans would say last year's PP was pretty dysfunctional at times.

The amount of people blowing a fit because I called Ovechkin a top-5 goal-scorer is ridiculous.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Scoring went up so he was worse relative to the league and he was a poor ES producer. He wasn't as good as his numbers that year. He also didn't miss any games, and despite your beliefs most people consider PPG when evaluating players. It's interesting that you focus solely on points for your point here though when Crosby won the Richard the year before this.

The 44 goal season was the outlier among those seasons far more than the 28 goal season - in terms of goals, GPG, PPG, and equally as much an outlier in terms of ES production.

 

[Regal]

The 44 goal season was the outlier among those seasons far more than the 28 goal season - in terms of goals, GPG, PPG, and equally as much an outlier in terms of ES production.

It wasn't an outlier in terms of ES points, he had 3 more ES points than the year before. And you keep ignoring the differences in league scoring. '15 and '16 were low scoring years. That started to creep up in '17 and even moreso in '18 and even more in '19. Crosby's '15 wasn't particularly good either, but '16 was a good season, '17 was a great season, '18 was a mediocre season and '19 was a great season. '18 And '15 were the worst full seasons of his career. '18 might not be the type of clear outlier like say Ovechkin's '17, but it was still arguably his worst full season bookended by two great seasons (the two best of the last 5 years) and a very good '16. Regardless of how you want to frame it, putting significant weight on Crosby's '18 is likely going to underrate him

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Thread topic: "Is Ovechkin a top 5 forward in the league?"

Thread content: Dekes For Days using cherry picked stats to desperately try and convince people that Matthews is a better goal scorer than Ovechkin.