Is Matt Murray Broken?

[Gurglesons]

One thing I can’t wait for is when Jarry’s inevitable numbers collapse and he is playing at the same level as Murray and people blame Sullivan.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

One thing I can’t wait for is when Jarry’s inevitable numbers collapse and he is playing at the same level as Murray and people blame Sullivan.

Wait, is Murray playing at a high level in this argument or are you stuck in November-December with this mentality.

 

[TooManyHumans]

Does anyone know whether there is any predictive power in being a "hot" goalie? In baseball I've seen research that has shown that there really isn't anything to the idea of a batter being hot. That is, there is no predictive power in it. Someone who is hot is just as likely to have a subpar game (relative to their normal expected performance) as an above par game in their next game. I'd be curious to know whether a goalie playing above his level is at all more likely to continue to do so than drop off. I know we all feel like there is some predictive power in being hot but I wouldn't be at all surprised to find out that there is not.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

S*** you talk a lot. Lol. I'm glad you think so highly of Murray, no shame in it. You're also taking numbers from partial seasons. Even last year was quite a minimal load for a #1. How about you make a poll. Do it here among just Pens fans if you'd like and see what tier the majority ranks MM across the hockey world. I'd be curious myself to see where we all place him.

I'll be nice. Murray is not as good as you think. He's also not a bad goalie, he's good. I personally like Jarry a bit better mechanically and stick handling. They can both be pivotal to us winning this year.

Unless Murray was a Vezina goalie I'm not a proponent to paying any goalie big bucks. If Jarry can do the job at a similar rate I go with the cheaper option for the teams sake. Some agree with me others don't. O well.

Have a poll, are you kidding me? I have just been busting on half our fan base for everything from this thread to the Rutherford needs to go thread and so many others and you think I would care what those people would think? I don't need a poll to make my judgements and I just look at pure numbers.

You are correct most of those are partial seasons but that doesn't change the fact of the level of play. In his first Cup year he was lights out in his 13 starts when he got the call up at the end of that season. Then Murray outplayed every goalie in the playoffs and won the Cup. I consider that combination of playoff games and regular season plenty of games to go on and he played them at top 5 level and that can't be disputed by the numbers and the results. Heck Jarry has played less games then that this year and people want to let him be out new goalie for the playoffs and trade Murray. So people can't have it both ways. So no doubt Murray played top 5 level that season for his 30+ games that year including the Cup.

Second year Murray had 47 starts and was tied for the 4th best save% of any goalie with more than half his teams starts. Murray then went on and won the last two rounds of the playoffs for another Cup with the best stats in the playoffs. Add all those games up and that is a plenty big enough sample size.

3rd year Murray played just middling goalie numbers due to his father's terminal illness and eventual death. Same thing is happening to MAF this year. I am not going to judge the man on that season. I love my dad and would be crushed for a long time in that situation. Heck my wife's mother passed 3 years ago and she still is crushed on some days and definitely all the months during the illness and after the death.

Last year Murray played terrible at the beginning and lost his job to DeSmith. Then Murray went on a run the rest of the year and finished with the 3rd best save% of any goalie starting 50 more games and 5th best if you want to go by goalies starting more than half the starts 42 games.

So this isn't opinion that Murray played top 5 level 3 of his first 4 years. So I don't need some lame fan poll to make my opinion. This year again Murray had a poor stretch in the first half of the season. Murray is now 5-0 with a great save% over those games so it looks like he is back to his normal level.

Murray had his faults such as easily injured and also bouts of poor play but his overall numbers are easily top 10 and he has played 3 seasons of top 5 level and won two Cups. That deserves respect. For all this talk about the league figured him out. If that was the case why did Murray play lights out the second half last year and finish the season with the 3rd best save% of any goalie with 50 or more starts. Thing is people get a narrative and try to make it fit. Just because I don't want to put all my hopes on a player like Jarry and trade Murray like several suggest doest mean I don't see Murray's faults. I just am not putting this veteran teams last few best years hope on Jarry with so little starting experience. Jarry had less than a 20 game good starting run and had 3 poor games in a row sub .900 save%.

So keep your opinion and all keep mine. You know we're you can stick your poll idea. I actually hope both Jarry and Murray kick some butt. I am not anti Jarry in the least.

 

[Flying Dego]

Have a poll, are you kidding me? I have just been busting on half our fan base for everything from this thread to the Rutherford needs to go thread and so many others and you think I would care what those people would think? I don't need a poll to make my judgements and I just look at pure numbers.

You are correct most of those are partial seasons but that doesn't change the fact of the level of play. In his first Cup year he was lights out in his 13 starts when he got the call up at the end of that season. Then Murray outplayed every goalie in the playoffs and won the Cup. I consider that combination of playoff games and regular season plenty of games to go on and he played them at top 5 level and that can't be disputed by the numbers and the results. Heck Jarry has played less games then that this year and people want to let him be out new goalie for the playoffs and trade Murray. So people can't have it both ways. So no doubt Murray played top 5 level that season for his 30+ games that year including the Cup.

Second year Murray had 47 starts and was tied for the 4th best save% of any goalie with more than half his teams starts. Murray then went on and won the last two rounds of the playoffs for another Cup with the best stats in the playoffs. Add all those games up and that is a plenty big enough sample size.

3rd year Murray played just middling goalie numbers due to his father's terminal illness and eventual death. Same thing is happening to MAF this year. I am not going to judge the man on that season. I love my dad and would be crushed for a long time in that situation. Heck my wife's mother passed 3 years ago and she still is crushed on some days and definitely all the months during the illness and after the death.

Last year Murray played terrible at the beginning and lost his job to DeSmith. Then Murray went on a run the rest of the year and finished with the 3rd best save% of any goalie starting 50 more games and 5th best if you want to go by goalies starting more than half the starts 42 games.

So this isn't opinion that Murray played top 5 level 3 of his first 4 years. So I don't need some lame fan poll to make my opinion. This year again Murray had a poor stretch in the first half of the season. Murray is now 5-0 with a great save% over those games so it looks like he is back to his normal level.

Murray had his faults such as easily injured and also bouts of poor play but his overall numbers are easily top 10 and he has played 3 seasons of top 5 level and won two Cups. That deserves respect. For all this talk about the league figured him out. If that was the case why did Murray play lights out the second half last year and finish the season with the 3rd best save% of any goalie with 50 or more starts. Thing is people get a narrative and try to make it fit. Just because I don't want to put all my hopes on a player like Jarry and trade Murray like several suggest doest mean I don't see Murray's faults. I just am not putting this veteran teams last few best years hope on Jarry with so little starting experience. Jarry had less than a 20 game good starting run and had 3 poor games in a row sub .900 save%.

So keep your opinion and all keep mine. You know we're you can stick your poll idea. I actually hope both Jarry and Murray kick some butt. I am not anti Jarry in the least.

[MOD]

Jarry is consistent. I know what to expect every start from him. He hasn't shown me once that I need to fear him just losing his mind (which all goalies have their moments)

Murray is wildly inconsistent. Way to erratic for my taste. I want to know what to expect. It's shades of Fleury tbh. Giving up s*** goals constantly than looking stellar. I dislike that.

Jarry is going to be a great goalie, I don't care if you think he's too new. You can't have that both ways when we crowned MM immediately. Obviously it worked out for 2 cup runs.

If Jarry gives me consistent goaltending the rest of the year and is not injury prone? I'm signing this dude to be my #1. Again MM is a good goalie but you got some kinda Homer goggles on...

I want both to play well and help us evenly down the stretch with a slight edge to Jarry, why because he's leading the league still in Save %. This is no hot streak. Jarry is best for business at the end of the day so it benefits us for him to take over. I'm not a sentimental person that wants to give Murray a big contract as a thank you for the cups. If you get outplayed, sorry that's sports for ya.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Sorry that is biased if you think Sullivan is going to start Jarry in the playoffs over Murray if Murray is playing well. If people can't see that Jarry has cooled off and actually has been playing below average goaltending in his last 3 games all in the .800's save%. Murray on the other hand is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with all 5 games in the .900's save% and 4 of the .917 save% or higher.

If Murray keeps performing the job is his and it isn't even a contest. If Jarry starts performing like his earlier starts then he will start getting more time but will be the backup if Murray is playing like he has the past 5 games. Murray is the proven goalie with 3 of his 4 years in the league with a top 5 save% type goalie. Jarry had a hot 17 starts and the last 5 not so hot. Sullivan is not handing over the keys to Jarry in the playoffs unless Murray faulters. If Murray starts playing like crap again then Jarry will get his shot this year if he gets back to form but no coach would start Jarry with no experience and long time success over a proven playoff winner who is playing well.

Because I don't base how a goalie is playing just on save percentages/GAA. Its sloppy. You wouldn't judge a skater based soley on stats, right?

MM was flopping around and not reading the play at his worst. Jarry looked like the same goalie to me during his recent dip

 

[HandshakeLine]

How quickly the "I'm just rooting for MM/Jarry based on their talent" argument implodes around here. Jesus, have a trace of self-awareness you idjits.

 

[Khelandros]

Just for the record, saying Jarry has a .800SV% is just misleading. He was .897, .897, and .889 in three of those games. One more shot+save would put him at or above .900. SV% is all well and good, but it's a misleading stat when comparing goalies. A goalie that faces more shots will have a higher save %. GAA is the telling stat, and until last night, Jarry was averaging 3, and that's not very good.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Just for the record, saying Jarry has a .800SV% is just misleading. He was .897, .897, and .889 in three of those games. One more shot+save would put him at or above .900. SV% is all well and good, but it's a misleading stat when comparing goalies. A goalie that faces more shots will have a higher save %. GAA is the telling stat, and until last night, Jarry was averaging 3, and that's not very good.

Those 3 bad games were his worst stretch, then he bounces back to a .931 Sv% and in one of those 3 games, the Pens played as poorly, if not worse than they did vs the Flyers against he Bruins, so that one is even tough to really blame him on, so really it's 2 bad starts out of the last 4. People here were tripping over themselves to spank themselves to Murray's 5 game stats, like he hasn't had 5-6 starts where he was absolute shit and has a pattern at this point, of that sort of thing.

Meanwhile, 2 bad starts, "OMG JARRY IS FALLING BACK TO EARTH"...then he has the Flyers game "BUT JARRY HAD A WEEK WHERE HE WAS CRAP!" not really...like you pointed out, a save here or there would have changed that, the Boston game I don't fault him for at all since the Pens abandon any sense of reason or rational vs that Bruins team and was vastly different in the home game against them where, surprise surprise, the other starter also allowed 3 goals but faced a few more shots so his numbers look different.

Murray rebounding is fine, but it doesn't change the fact that he goes through these spells a lot and often for a supposed legit #1 goalie. Meanwhile Jarry rebounds a lot faster, has held a higher and longer stretch of elite level goaltending and people still aren't convinced after 25 games.

 

[Shady Machine]

Those 3 bad games were his worst stretch, then he bounces back to a .931 Sv% and in one of those 3 games, the Pens played as poorly, if not worse than they did vs the Flyers against he Bruins, so that one is even tough to really blame him on, so really it's 2 bad starts out of the last 4. People here were tripping over themselves to spank themselves to Murray's 5 game stats, like he hasn't had 5-6 starts where he was absolute **** and has a pattern at this point, of that sort of thing.

Meanwhile, 2 bad starts, "OMG JARRY IS FALLING BACK TO EARTH"...then he has the Flyers game "BUT JARRY HAD A WEEK WHERE HE WAS CRAP!" not really...like you pointed out, a save here or there would have changed that, the Boston game I don't fault him for at all since the Pens abandon any sense of reason or rational vs that Bruins team and was vastly different in the home game against them where, surprise surprise, the other starter also allowed 3 goals but faced a few more shots so his numbers look different.

Murray rebounding is fine, but it doesn't change the fact that he goes through these spells a lot and often for a supposed legit #1 goalie. Meanwhile Jarry rebounds a lot faster, has held a higher and longer stretch of elite level goaltending and people still aren't convinced after 25 games.

Where is the evidence to suggest he rebounds faster than Murray and has "held a higher and longer stretch of elite level goaltending"? Are you seriously making the argument that Jarry has proven to be an elite goaltender for longer stretches than Murray? Check the historic stats.

Let's just be real here for a second. Jarry's start to his NHL career isn't all that dissimilar to Murray's. Both thrust into starter roles in unexpected fashion (Murray because Fleury was injured and Jarry because Murray was struggling) and did extremely well in their first 30 games.

All the folks claiming Murray is inconsistent need to rightly be concerned about the future for Jarry too. Young goalies WILL go through growing pains in this league and it's wise to be cautious about the goaltending situation moving forward.

Reality is Pens are in a good situation with their young goalies and should keep both as long as they reasonably can.

 

[Flying Dego]

Where is the evidence to suggest he rebounds faster than Murray and has "held a higher and longer stretch of elite level goaltending"? Are you seriously making the argument that Jarry has proven to be an elite goaltender for longer stretches than Murray? Check the historic stats.

Let's just be real here for a second. Jarry's start to his NHL career isn't all that dissimilar to Murray's. Both thrust into starter roles in unexpected fashion (Murray because Fleury was injured and Jarry because Murray was struggling) and did extremely well in their first 30 games.

All the folks claiming Murray is inconsistent need to rightly be concerned about the future for Jarry too. Young goalies WILL go through growing pains in this league and it's wise to be cautious about the goaltending situation moving forward.

Reality is Pens are in a good situation with their young goalies and should keep both as long as they reasonably can.

It all boils down to how they finish their seasons and what we can afford in the off-season. I don't think it wise for us to spend 9+M on two goalies. Assuming minimum is MM-6m and TJ-3m. That may be too conservative as well.

If they finish both looking sharp, I take the cheaper option for the next few years and trade the other for a valuable asset.

Our team lives and dies with their forwards and team defense. I do not want to restrict spending in that group just to have 2 goalies. I believe both are starters in the league. If MM brings back a young top 6 wing or comparable asset? I trade him. I feel like this is a level headed outlook but some act like it's crazy talk...

 

[Shady Machine]

It all boils down to how they finish their seasons and what we can afford in the off-season. I don't think it wise for us to spend 9+M on two goalies. Assuming minimum is MM-6m and TJ-3m. That may be too conservative as well.

If they finish both looking sharp, I take the cheaper option for the next few years and trade the other for a valuable asset.

Our team lives and dies with their forwards and team defense. I do not want to restrict spending in that group just to have 2 goalies. I believe both are starters in the league. If MM brings back a young top 6 wing or comparable asset? I trade him. I feel like this is a level headed outlook but some act like it's crazy talk...

That's a fair argument to make, but what happens if you trade Murray and then Jarry struggles next year as team's write the book on him or just natural inconsistency of a young goaltender? DeSmith is around but playoffs can be a question mark.

For me, my preference is to keep both next year, even at ~$9MM total. I need to see the trade off of what we are losing to really make a decision, but I lean to keep both. That said, if Murray insists on being paid 7-8MM long term, that changes my calculus some.

Anyway, lots of time to see how this season and playoffs shake out first.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

That's a fair argument to make, but what happens if you trade Murray and then Jarry struggles next year as team's write the book on him or just natural inconsistency of a young goaltender? DeSmith is around but playoffs can be a question mark.

For me, my preference is to keep both next year, even at ~$9MM total. I need to see the trade off of what we are losing to really make a decision, but I lean to keep both. That said, if Murray insists on being paid 7-8MM long term, that changes my calculus some.

Anyway, lots of time to see how this season and playoffs shake out first.

Teams have taken chances like that before with goalies with even less pedigree than Jarry. He's 24 going on 25, he's had call-ups and has had time to work on his game, the biggest thing about Jarry in regards to having a "book on him" would be that he still shoots his rebounds out too much and needs to absorb and kick them to the side more often, he does that and it's something he's worked a lot on, but the rest of his game is pretty f***ing sound and solid and he handles the puck so damn well for a goalie and is composed as well. The kinks in his game also are less time involved with fixing them.

Murray for example, still is inconsistent as hell every year for the last 3yrs to start his season he also takes months to get back to form. Jarry, people literally waited for him to have 2 bad games and then jumped all over him not being ready, that was such bullshit and that's why there are people defending the f*** out of him, including me, because that is bs. Murray slowly slid back into inconsistent territory like f***ing clockwork for a month and a half or so, he deserved the criticism he was getting. Jarry literally had 2 forgettable games and people acted like he had a month and a half of that shit.

Also, Jarry had 2 bad games, then rebounded back to normal. It didn't take a month. If the Pens moved Murray, the only thing this team would continue to need is to keep the guy that is helping him grow, around, because his goalie coach has done wonders.

 

[Allie Kitsune]

That's a fair argument to make, but what happens if you trade Murray and then Jarry struggles next year as team's write the book on him or just natural inconsistency of a young goaltender? DeSmith is around but playoffs can be a question mark.

For me, my preference is to keep both next year, even at ~$9MM total. I need to see the trade off of what we are losing to really make a decision, but I lean to keep both. That said, if Murray insists on being paid 7-8MM long term, that changes my calculus some.

Anyway, lots of time to see how this season and playoffs shake out first.

I just think, if we end up spending 9M or more on goaltending, and both are playing fairly well, how much is it going to cost us to bribe Seattle to take one of them off of our hands?

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I just think, if we end up spending 9M or more on goaltending, and both are playing fairly well, how much is it going to cost us to bribe Seattle to take one of them off of our hands?

I pick the guy that hasn't had a history of injuries in a short span, consistent inconsistency issues to start each season, and one that plays the puck well that actually helps the Pens with their transition game and makes it harder for teams to dump the puck in on the Pens.

 

[Allie Kitsune]

I pick the guy that hasn't had a history of injuries in a short span, consistent inconsistency issues to start each season, and one that plays the puck well that actually helps the Pens with their transition game and makes it harder for teams to dump the puck in on the Pens.

I get it.

I can't respond.

But I get it.

 

[Flying Dego]

I pick the guy that hasn't had a history of injuries in a short span, consistent inconsistency issues to start each season, and one that plays the puck well that actually helps the Pens with their transition game and makes it harder for teams to dump the puck in on the Pens.

But then you'd be disrespecting a 2 time Cup champion. So all your valid points aren't so valid now are they? Also goalies need to prove they can be a starter for at least 2 years before we can trust them.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

But then you'd be disrespecting a 2 time Cup champion. So all your valid points aren't so valid now are they? Also goalies need to prove they can be a starter for at least 2 years before we can trust them.

I feel like a 4th year of inconsistent starts should cement his legend, 10m/yr should be sufficient for that narrow headed puck stopping ninja Murray.

 

[lastcupever75]

after 25 games[/B].

are you being serious here? you want people to be convinced after 25 games?

and that's coming from a fan of both. the better they individually play, the better off for the team

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

[MOD]

Jarry is consistent. I know what to expect every start from him. He hasn't shown me once that I need to fear him just losing his mind (which all goalies have their moments)

Murray is wildly inconsistent. Way to erratic for my taste. I want to know what to expect. It's shades of Fleury tbh. Giving up s*** goals constantly than looking stellar. I dislike that.

Jarry is going to be a great goalie, I don't care if you think he's too new. You can't have that both ways when we crowned MM immediately. Obviously it worked out for 2 cup runs.

If Jarry gives me consistent goaltending the rest of the year and is not injury prone? I'm signing this dude to be my #1. Again MM is a good goalie but you got some kinda Homer goggles on...
/QUOTE]

Homer goggles? You can't dispute my points. How is it Homer goggles by pointing out in all 3 of those years Murray played at a top 5 level. It is undeniable for each of those years. First year up his 13 starts he had a 9-2-1 record 2.00 GAA and a .930 save%. In the playoffs 15-6 record 2.08 GAA and .923 save% and a Cup. It doesn't take Homer goggles to see that was top 5 goalie play that season. Do you really debate that?

Second year Murray starts 47 games and a 32-10-4 record 2.41 GAA .923 save% which was 4th best save% of any goalie that started at least half of it's teams games. Murray then won the last two rounds with 7-3 record 1.70 GAA and .937 save% and another Cup. So please explain how that me saying that was a top 5 level of play is Homer googles.

Year 3 we already talked about that with the father terminally ill and eventual death. MAF is having his numbers doing just as poor as Murray's due to the same situation. So with that and the concussion issue that season I gave him a pass. So I am not saying was top 5 level. If you want to say I have Homer glasses for giving Murray a pass that season that is your privilege. To me it makes you less then human but that's for the people that have to live with you to decide.

Last season Murray had a poor first half and lost his job to DeSmith. Murray then went on fire in December and was one of the best goalies in the NHL the rest of the season with a save% in the .930's the rest of that year. Even with that poor start Murray finished with the 3rd best save% of any goalie with 50 or more starts. Even with that very low standard of at least half your teams starts Murray was 5th in save%. So how did I have Homer googles believing that was a top 5 season? For those saying that save% is not a good way to base goalies abilities I say bull crap. That is the most objective way to judge a goalie. Give me the goalie with a top 5 save% for the year any day. GAA or wins I would agree is influenced with the type of game your team plays. As long as my goalie is stopping .915+% all be satisfied and if it is around .920 all take that every year. Sorry no Homer googles and I would take that no matter who the goalie was. Yes save% is affected by team style but I don't care what team you play for a save% around .920 is good no matter what and he had train wreck JJ playing off side in front of him so you can't say everything was perfect inflating those save% numbers.

This season same crappy play and lost his job again and this time to Jarry. Murray again has looked like he has broke out of that funk and is primed for a great 2nd half going 5-0 with 4 of those starts .917 or higher. The other still in the .9's. I can't see the future but I trust Murray more than Jarry if I had to choose at this time. Jarry really only had a good 18 game start and has been mediocre lately. Such a small sample size to put all our hopes on. I am not against Jarry and hope he proves to be a top 10 starting goalie in this league.

You said I can't have it both ways and that Murray was crowned immediately. The big difference is that we kept Fleury even after Murray took over the job and won the Cup. We did not trade Fleury that summer like you suggest with doing with Murray this summer. Rutherford rightfully so wanted to see Murray do it again the following season. After again playing great and winning another Cup and keeping the starting job Rutherford then let Fleury go. So if anyone has on Homer goggles for a player it is you. You would turn the team over to Jarry with the little you have seen already you see Jarry as the better goalie. You are so sure Jarry is the real deal and I hope you are right but I am not putting this teams last best few Cup years hopes on a goalie that went on an 18 game hot streak and has looked like he has cooled down and back to mediocrity lately.

I can't predict what is going to happen from this point forward but I certainly am not pushing to get rid of either goalie even this summer. I believe I have the same mindset Rutherford has and that is let it play out the rest of the season and play the hot hand. If Rutherford can get both goalies signed for a cap hit he believes is fair I believe he keeps both until the expansion draft. That is when Rutherford will decide who to protect. I believe that is the course to take. If somehow Jarry takes over and plays lights out the rest of the season and starts in the playoffs and we win a Cup then I would seriously think of trading Murray at that time. I seriously doubt this is going to be the case though. I put my money on Murray being the starter come playoff time but will see.

I am not a fan boys of any player on our team and look at things objectively. Anyone that is all in for Jarry be the man with this little proof of starting time and willing to trade Murray are the true fan boy goggle wearing fan base.

 

[Return of the Paek]

Look I’m not one to play devils advocate, but hear me out. We have Murray and Jarry alternate periods the rest of the way. It will keep both fresh and sharp and keep the opposition on their toes.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Homer goggles? You can't dispute my points. How is it Homer goggles by pointing out in all 3 of those years Murray played at a top 5 level. It is undeniable for each of those years. First year up his 13 starts he had a 9-2-1 record 2.00 GAA and a .930 save%. In the playoffs 15-6 record 2.08 GAA and .923 save% and a Cup. It doesn't take Homer goggles to see that was top 5 goalie play that season. Do you really debate that?

Second year Murray starts 47 games and a 32-10-4 record 2.41 GAA .923 save% which was 4th best save% of any goalie that started at least half of it's teams games. Murray then won the last two rounds with 7-3 record 1.70 GAA and .937 save% and another Cup. So please explain how that me saying that was a top 5 level of play is Homer googles.

Year 3 we already talked about that with the father terminally ill and eventual death. MAF is having his numbers doing just as poor as Murray's due to the same situation. So with that and the concussion issue that season I gave him a pass. So I am not saying was top 5 level. If you want to say I have Homer glasses for giving Murray a pass that season that is your privilege. To me it makes you less then human but that's for the people that have to live with you to decide.

Last season Murray had a poor first half and lost his job to DeSmith. Murray then went on fire in December and was one of the best goalies in the NHL the rest of the season with a save% in the .930's the rest of that year. Even with that poor start Murray finished with the 3rd best save% of any goalie with 50 or more starts. Even with that very low standard of at least half your teams starts Murray was 5th in save%. So how did I have Homer googles believing that was a top 5 season? For those saying that save% is not a good way to base goalies abilities I say bull crap. That is the most objective way to judge a goalie. Give me the goalie with a top 5 save% for the year any day. GAA or wins I would agree is influenced with the type of game your team plays. As long as my goalie is stopping .915+% all be satisfied and if it is around .920 all take that every year. Sorry no Homer googles and I would take that no matter who the goalie was. Yes save% is affected by team style but I don't care what team you play for a save% around .920 is good no matter what and he had train wreck JJ playing off side in front of him so you can't say everything was perfect inflating those save% numbers.

This season same crappy play and lost his job again and this time to Jarry. Murray again has looked like he has broke out of that funk and is primed for a great 2nd half going 5-0 with 4 of those starts .917 or higher. The other still in the .9's. I can't see the future but I trust Murray more than Jarry if I had to choose at this time. Jarry really only had a good 18 game start and has been mediocre lately. Such a small sample size to put all our hopes on. I am not against Jarry and hope he proves to be a top 10 starting goalie in this league.

You said I can't have it both ways and that Murray was crowned immediately. The big difference is that we kept Fleury even after Murray took over the job and won the Cup. We did not trade Fleury that summer like you suggest with doing with Murray this summer. Rutherford rightfully so wanted to see Murray do it again the following season. After again playing great and winning another Cup and keeping the starting job Rutherford then let Fleury go. So if anyone has on Homer goggles for a player it is you. You would turn the team over to Jarry with the little you have seen already you see Jarry as the better goalie. You are so sure Jarry is the real deal and I hope you are right but I am not putting this teams last best few Cup years hopes on a goalie that went on an 18 game hot streak and has looked like he has cooled down and back to mediocrity lately.

I can't predict what is going to happen from this point forward but I certainly am not pushing to get rid of either goalie even this summer. I believe I have the same mindset Rutherford has and that is let it play out the rest of the season and play the hot hand. If Rutherford can get both goalies signed for a cap hit he believes is fair I believe he keeps both until the expansion draft. That is when Rutherford will decide who to protect. I believe that is the course to take. If somehow Jarry takes over and plays lights out the rest of the season and starts in the playoffs and we win a Cup then I would seriously think of trading Murray at that time. I seriously doubt this is going to be the case though. I put my money on Murray being the starter come playoff time but will see.

I am not a fan boys of any player on our team and look at things objectively. Anyone that is all in for Jarry be the man with this little proof of starting time and willing to trade Murray are the true fan boy goggle wearing fan base.

Matt, I'm sorry people booed you.

Also, going back from 2015-16 to now.

SV% numbers. Someone is 25th overall, another is 13th overall with a minimum of 40 games played, at least.

Weeeeeeeeeeeiiiirrrd.

NHL.com Stats

 

[Flying Dego]

Homer goggles? You can't dispute my points. How is it Homer goggles by pointing out in all 3 of those years Murray played at a top 5 level. It is undeniable for each of those years. First year up his 13 starts he had a 9-2-1 record 2.00 GAA and a .930 save%. In the playoffs 15-6 record 2.08 GAA and .923 save% and a Cup. It doesn't take Homer goggles to see that was top 5 goalie play that season. Do you really debate that?

Second year Murray starts 47 games and a 32-10-4 record 2.41 GAA .923 save% which was 4th best save% of any goalie that started at least half of it's teams games. Murray then won the last two rounds with 7-3 record 1.70 GAA and .937 save% and another Cup. So please explain how that me saying that was a top 5 level of play is Homer googles.

Year 3 we already talked about that with the father terminally ill and eventual death. MAF is having his numbers doing just as poor as Murray's due to the same situation. So with that and the concussion issue that season I gave him a pass. So I am not saying was top 5 level. If you want to say I have Homer glasses for giving Murray a pass that season that is your privilege. To me it makes you less then human but that's for the people that have to live with you to decide.

Last season Murray had a poor first half and lost his job to DeSmith. Murray then went on fire in December and was one of the best goalies in the NHL the rest of the season with a save% in the .930's the rest of that year. Even with that poor start Murray finished with the 3rd best save% of any goalie with 50 or more starts. Even with that very low standard of at least half your teams starts Murray was 5th in save%. So how did I have Homer googles believing that was a top 5 season? For those saying that save% is not a good way to base goalies abilities I say bull crap. That is the most objective way to judge a goalie. Give me the goalie with a top 5 save% for the year any day. GAA or wins I would agree is influenced with the type of game your team plays. As long as my goalie is stopping .915+% all be satisfied and if it is around .920 all take that every year. Sorry no Homer googles and I would take that no matter who the goalie was. Yes save% is affected by team style but I don't care what team you play for a save% around .920 is good no matter what and he had train wreck JJ playing off side in front of him so you can't say everything was perfect inflating those save% numbers.

This season same crappy play and lost his job again and this time to Jarry. Murray again has looked like he has broke out of that funk and is primed for a great 2nd half going 5-0 with 4 of those starts .917 or higher. The other still in the .9's. I can't see the future but I trust Murray more than Jarry if I had to choose at this time. Jarry really only had a good 18 game start and has been mediocre lately. Such a small sample size to put all our hopes on. I am not against Jarry and hope he proves to be a top 10 starting goalie in this league.

You said I can't have it both ways and that Murray was crowned immediately. The big difference is that we kept Fleury even after Murray took over the job and won the Cup. We did not trade Fleury that summer like you suggest with doing with Murray this summer. Rutherford rightfully so wanted to see Murray do it again the following season. After again playing great and winning another Cup and keeping the starting job Rutherford then let Fleury go. So if anyone has on Homer goggles for a player it is you. You would turn the team over to Jarry with the little you have seen already you see Jarry as the better goalie. You are so sure Jarry is the real deal and I hope you are right but I am not putting this teams last best few Cup years hopes on a goalie that went on an 18 game hot streak and has looked like he has cooled down and back to mediocrity lately.

I can't predict what is going to happen from this point forward but I certainly am not pushing to get rid of either goalie even this summer. I believe I have the same mindset Rutherford has and that is let it play out the rest of the season and play the hot hand. If Rutherford can get both goalies signed for a cap hit he believes is fair I believe he keeps both until the expansion draft. That is when Rutherford will decide who to protect. I believe that is the course to take. If somehow Jarry takes over and plays lights out the rest of the season and starts in the playoffs and we win a Cup then I would seriously think of trading Murray at that time. I seriously doubt this is going to be the case though. I put my money on Murray being the starter come playoff time but will see.

I am not a fan boys of any player on our team and look at things objectively. Anyone that is all in for Jarry be the man with this little proof of starting time and willing to trade Murray are the true fan boy goggle wearing fan base.

Here are MMs 'full' years...Vezina Voting
2019: 10 had votes
2017: 6 had votes
2016: 9 had votes

Can you guess how many of those 25 nominees were Murray? You're painting a guy finishing top 5 in the league 3 years wouldn't you imagine he'd get 1...1 vote? Do you want to wager on Jarry getting any votes this year, cause it's looking pretty likely with all of his optics he will.

The Blues put their hopes on Binnington and they haven't fallen. Just an example. If Jarry plays the entire season at even an above average pace he's worth it to the team. We don't need a top tier goalie...just a consistent one that is cheap. My two cents.

For the analytics crowd to better encompass a goalies performance. There's the GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) similar to WAR in baseball. Read into it if unfamiliar.

Murray's rankings by year:
2020: 50 (currently)
2019: 9
2018: 53
2017: 7
2016:21

So you can count two top 10 performances which is good but still he's been inconsistent and not a top 5 player yet. These stats are better for you to truly make a case as they factor in much more than 1 category, no? You claim MM is undeniably a top 5 goalie but this completely debunks your point.


Jarry is ranked 3 this year behind Bishop and Kuemper. Even if Jarry falls between 5-10 that's great and all we need. I just feel you are overshooting Murray and can't see him for what he is. On his best days he can be a top 10 goalie but he has never had consistency and is injury prone. I'd like to also tell you I'm disappointed, I really thought he was going to be a Vezina caliber goalie with his debut for us. But goalies are weird and I don't feel comfortable overpaying the position especially on an inconsistent one.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

Here are MMs 'full' years...Vezina Voting
2019: 10 had votes
2017: 6 had votes
2016: 9 had votes

Can you guess how many of those 25 nominees were Murray? You're painting a guy finishing top 5 in the league 3 years wouldn't you imagine he'd get 1...1 vote? Do you want to wager on Jarry getting any votes this year, cause it's looking pretty likely with all of his optics he will.

The Blues put their hopes on Binnington and they haven't fallen. Just an example. If Jarry plays the entire season at even an above average pace he's worth it to the team. We don't need a top tier goalie...just a consistent one that is cheap. My two cents.

For the analytics crowd to better encompass a goalies performance. There's the GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) similar to WAR in baseball. Read into it if unfamiliar.

Murray's rankings by year:
2020: 50 (currently)
2019: 9
2018: 53
2017: 7
2016:21

So you can count two top 10 performances which is good but still he's been inconsistent and not a top 5 player yet. These stats are better for you to truly make a case as they factor in much more than 1 category, no? You claim MM is undeniably a top 5 goalie but this completely debunks your point.


Jarry is ranked 3 this year behind Bishop and Kuemper. Even if Jarry falls between 5-10 that's great and all we need. I just feel you are overshooting Murray and can't see him for what he is. On his best days he can be a top 10 goalie but he has never had consistency and is injury prone. I'd like to also tell you I'm disappointed, I really thought he was going to be a Vezina caliber goalie with his debut for us. But goalies are weird and I don't feel comfortable overpaying the position especially on an inconsistent one.

Do you really think you made any point with your stupid Vezina voting crap? I could care less about any award that is voted on. Those awards are a joke and I stopped caring about them all the way back to 1989. That year Mario had 85 goals and 199 points which outpaced his closest teammate by 84 points. Gretzky won even though he had 54 goals and 168 points and only 18 points more than his closest teammate.

I gave my clear cut statistics for each of Murray's 3 years that he played top 5 NHL goalie ability. Again you couldn't refute any of those points and I am done debating with someone that really believes that Jarry should be the man after a hot 18 game start and then being mediocre at best since. I want to see much more before I turn this teams best last few Cup chances over to a goalie with such little experience. Thankfully Rutherford has much more common sense and I don't have to worry about such a bad mistake. You can believe what you want Jarry fan boy.

I hope Jarry turns out to be a top 10 starter in the league but he has much more to prove he is one. Also Honor over Glory posting lame statistics of showing Jarry 13th in the NHL with only 54 games is just laughable. Using that same logic DeSmith was right in front of Jarry at 12th. I guess he is one of the best goalies also since 2015-16. Sorry DeSmith is a back up NHL goalie but using those stats Glory put out to argue Jarry is better than Murray DeSmith is some NHL top 12 starting goalie. Please stop with the lame arguments. Some of you really have no common sense. I guess we get all kinds on message boards.

Take out the year Murray was dealing with his father's terminal illness and eventual death and see how far Murray moves up that list of Glory's. I made my case thaturrsu was a top 5 goalie in those 3 years. Gonput those years up and hit your little button. I never debated Murray was top 5 the year his father died or during the first half of this season. Plus Murray was the best goalie both his Cup years in the playoffs. I showed the facts that Murray was a top 5 goalie level player in his 3 years that was not the year of his father's death. My points for that case are very solid. Even going by this seasons stats is way to early. Let's see what his numbers look like at the end of the season. Last season his numbers started terrible also but by the end of the year he was top 5 save% for any goalie starting more than half his teams games.

Again I am not anti Jarry. I hope he proves to be an NHL top 10 goalie. If he ends up outplaying Murray from this point forward and is the starter in the playoffs and we win a Cup then I would be up for trading Murray. Short of that I keep both goalies until the expansion draft and decide then. This is what I think Rutherford will do. Done debating the knuckleheads.

Just for fun I went back and looked which goalie had the best save% with at least 50 starts for the years 2015-16 combined with 2016-17 and Murray was tired for 1st with Price. Then add in the other season I said Murray was playing top 5 goalie level which was last season and Murray is still one of they best goalies in the NHL besides the year his father had his terminal illness and eventual death. So like I said Murray has been a top 5 type NHL goalie in 3 of his plast 4 years. Let's see how the rest of this year goes Murray is 5-0 over last 5 starts with very good save% of .929 over that time. If Murray does what he did last season in the second half then his overall numbers this season will look much different.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Guy posts stats and analysis.
Other guy posts novel that those stats are crap, when they aren't.

Confusion ensues.