Is Matt Murray Broken?

[HandshakeLine]

Murray used to get lauded here like he was Dominik Hasek. He has a bad month, and he’s suddenly the second coming of playoff-MAF circa 2010-2015.

Never change Yinz, never change!

I mean, if people are overrating his slump, it's also quite possible they overrated his good play too.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

I pointed out that of Murray's 4 years prior to this year he has had 3 years of top 5 level play which is irrefutable by the numbers.

You're kidding, right? Top 10, maybe.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I mean, if people are overrating his slump, it's also quite possible they overrated his good play too.

The big difference with your assertion is the sample size. I don't sorry about a player slumping for a 20-30 game stretch. Rust slumped for more games than that last year. Doesn't change the fact of how good a player Rust is. People on these boards wanted to give him away.

Murray has a slow start and some other top tier goalies are having the same slow start. Look at Bobrovsky, Price, and Rinne are doing. I gave facts to show I am not overrating Murray. No person has been able to refute those facts.

Fact 1: Murray had top 5 level numbers not only his first two seasons in his Cup years but also last season. Last year only 2 goalies that started 50 games or more had a better save% than Murray and even if you want to count goalies with half their teams starts Murray still had the 5th best save%.

Fact 2: The only season Murray had average goalie numbers was the season his dad was terminally ill and later died that season. I am not holding that against him because I know it would definitely effect my play also. When Murray's dad eventually died and Murray eventually came back to the team he played top 5 level again until near the end of that season when he went out with a concussion.

Fact 3: Jarry has only started 9 games this season and has had a great start but that is way to small a number of games to say he is the better goalie of the future for the Pens. Last two years Jarry couldn't even beat out DeSmith and was outplayed by DeSmith each year in the AHL also.

I hope Jarry keeps it up and I also think Murray gets back to his normal level of play. That level of play has been top 5 level 3 of his 4 years but some on these boards can't admit that when statistically it can't be argued. Also that one average year has about as good excuse as you could have.

 

[Khelandros]

The big difference with your assertion is the sample size. I don't sorry about a player slumping for a 20-30 game stretch. Rust slumped for more games than that last year. Doesn't change the fact of how good a player Rust is. People on these boards wanted to give him away.

Murray has a slow start and some other top tier goalies are having the same slow start. Look at Bobrovsky, Price, and Rinne are doing. I gave facts to show I am not overrating Murray. No person has been able to refute those facts.

Fact 1: Murray had top 5 level numbers not only his first two seasons in his Cup years but also last season. Last year only 2 goalies that started 50 games or more had a better save% than Murray and even if you want to count goalies with half their teams starts Murray still had the 5th best save%.

Fact 2: The only season Murray had average goalie numbers was the season his dad was terminally ill and later died that season. I am not holding that against him because I know it would definitely effect my play also. When Murray's dad eventually died and Murray eventually came back to the team he played top 5 level again until near the end of that season when he went out with a concussion.

Fact 3: Jarry has only started 9 games this season and has had a great start but that is way to small a number of games to say he is the better goalie of the future for the Pens. Last two years Jarry couldn't even beat out DeSmith and was outplayed by DeSmith each year in the AHL also.

I hope Jarry keeps it up and I also think Murray gets back to his normal level of play. That level of play has been top 5 level 3 of his 4 years but some on these boards can't admit that when statistically it can't be argued. Also that one average year has about as good excuse as you could have.

2015-16: Played 13 games. Doesn't count
2016-17: Played 49 games, 4th in SV%, 10th in GAA
2017-18: Played 49 games, 26th in SV%, 22nd in GAA
2018-19: Played 50 games, 7th in SV%, 14th in GAA
41 games used as requirement for placement. There is 1 top 5 stat in all of that.

 

[ColePens]

I think a lot of people are going to look VERY silly in a few years when someone bumps this thread. Just take a look around. Look at Vasi. Look at Gibson. Look at Jones. Remember what MAF went through. Look at Rinne. Look at pretty much EVERY starting goalie and see they have their ups/downs in their career. And thinking backups can be guaranteed starters? Scott Darling. There are probably 100 examples but that is the one you need.

It's only in some wild world people think starting goalies never falter. We have a great trio of goalies. Keep running with it. Let's go.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

2015-16: Played 13 games. Doesn't count
2016-17: Played 49 games, 4th in SV%, 10th in GAA
2017-18: Played 49 games, 26th in SV%, 22nd in GAA
2018-19: Played 50 games, 7th in SV%, 14th in GAA
41 games used as requirement for placement. There is 1 top 5 stat in all of that.

First off to be considered the starting goalie you have to start at least half the games. So your board post about last season is ridiculous. 100% fact that last year Murray was 5th best save% for goalies with minimum 41 starts. That is the minimum requirement to be considered a starting goalie. Murray was top 3 for goalies with 50 or more starts.

Second, not counting Murray's first season by only counting his regular season stats and saying too small sample size ignores the facts that not only was his 13 games lights out but then played another 21 games lights out in the playoffs winning the Cup. I think 34 games started is enough to count. I think winning the Cup is more than enough to count to say played at a top 5 level that season.

3rd point, the second season Murray did have top 5 save% which is the stat I go by and again had great playoff numbers and won the Cup. Another season of top 5 goalie play.

So again, it is 100% factual that Murray played at top 5 goalie level for 3 of his first 4 seasons. The only season Murray didn't perform to that level was the year his father was terminally ill. I give him a pass for that. Murray still showed me that top 5 level play when he came back from his time off after his father died.

So I am not worried about this slow start. Many players go through periods of below average play for 20 games and some even for half seasons. Heck, some good players have a bad full season only to rebound back to top form for many years in a row after that year.

Again people's hyperbolic attitudes when players play poorly for stretches is laughable. Kahun earlier this year and Rust last year. This forum community needs medicated.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

Murray is probably going to be crawled up in a ball with highlights of Jarry making saves on a big screen, with this blaring on repeat over the holidays....

 

[Honour Over Glory]

First off to be considered the starting goalie you have to start at least half the games. So your board post about last season is ridiculous. 100% fact that last year Murray was 5th best save% for goalies with minimum 41 starts. That is the minimum requirement to be considered a starting goalie. Murray was top 3 for goalies with 50 or more starts.

Second, not counting Murray's first season by only counting his regular season stats and saying too small sample size ignores the facts that not only was his 13 games lights out but then played another 21 games lights out in the playoffs winning the Cup. I think 34 games started is enough to count. I think winning the Cup is more than enough to count to say played at a top 5 level that season.

3rd point, the second season Murray did have top 5 save% which is the stat I go by and again had great playoff numbers and won the Cup. Another season of top 5 goalie play.

So again, it is 100% factual that Murray played at top 5 goalie level for 3 of his first 4 seasons. The only season Murray didn't perform to that level was the year his father was terminally ill. I give him a pass for that. Murray still showed me that top 5 level play when he came back from his time off after his father died.

So I am not worried about this slow start. Many players go through periods of below average play for 20 games and some even for half seasons. Heck, some good players have a bad full season only to rebound back to top form for many years in a row after that year.

Again people's hyperbolic attitudes when players play poorly for stretches is laughable. Kahun earlier this year and Rust last year. This forum community needs medicated.

Rust had stretches but before that he didn't have some crazy up and down year like last year in his career. Kahun is in his second full nhl season.

Murray is on year 3 of an up and down season.

So who's making the excuses?

 

[Khelandros]

First off to be considered the starting goalie you have to start at least half the games. So your board post about last season is ridiculous. 100% fact that last year Murray was 5th best save% for goalies with minimum 41 starts. That is the minimum requirement to be considered a starting goalie. Murray was top 3 for goalies with 50 or more starts.

Second, not counting Murray's first season by only counting his regular season stats and saying too small sample size ignores the facts that not only was his 13 games lights out but then played another 21 games lights out in the playoffs winning the Cup. I think 34 games started is enough to count. I think winning the Cup is more than enough to count to say played at a top 5 level that season.

3rd point, the second season Murray did have top 5 save% which is the stat I go by and again had great playoff numbers and won the Cup. Another season of top 5 goalie play.

So again, it is 100% factual that Murray played at top 5 goalie level for 3 of his first 4 seasons. The only season Murray didn't perform to that level was the year his father was terminally ill. I give him a pass for that. Murray still showed me that top 5 level play when he came back from his time off after his father died.

So I am not worried about this slow start. Many players go through periods of below average play for 20 games and some even for half seasons. Heck, some good players have a bad full season only to rebound back to top form for many years in a row after that year.

Again people's hyperbolic attitudes when players play poorly for stretches is laughable. Kahun earlier this year and Rust last year. This forum community needs medicated.

So I give you actual facts, follow it up by saying that 41 games was required to be considered for placement, and you tell me it's wrong. Then you try to prove your point by telling me what you think, arguing about the actual facts that I posted. You know what can't be argued? Actual, factual stats, taken straight from NHL.com. If you can't accept the facts, then you have problems.

 

[Shady Machine]

From Rob Rossi article today.
"Penguins personnel close to the situation insist Murray’s struggles are all about his positioning. Specifically, he is too deep in the crease, holding his glove too low and cheating high with his blocker."
The Penguins face a crucial stretch entering the... if you have a sub.

It's certainly true that his positioning is whack this year. Not sure why that is happening.

 

[Shady Machine]

Rust had stretches but before that he didn't have some crazy up and down year like last year in his career. Kahun is in his second full nhl season.

Murray is on year 3 of an up and down season.

So who's making the excuses?

I think we should all just take a step back and chill. Be critical of Murray's play and start Jarry more for sure. But let's just make sure to put it into context.

As for up and down play, MOST starting goalies have that, especially when they are young. Now, I am not advocating throwing top 5 starter money at Murray based on his play this year and overall play since the 2017 Cup win. I personally thought he would come in this year and prove that last year down the stretch was indicative of his future. So far I look wrong, but I really don't see a reason to move on from him yet.

 

[Shady Machine]

2015-16: Played 13 games. Doesn't count
2016-17: Played 49 games, 4th in SV%, 10th in GAA
2017-18: Played 49 games, 26th in SV%, 22nd in GAA
2018-19: Played 50 games, 7th in SV%, 14th in GAA
41 games used as requirement for placement. There is 1 top 5 stat in all of that.

So overall it looks like he's an above average starter? What do you think above average starters make?

5-6MM bucks is within the range. Now, how many of them have 2 rings? Not saying the Pens HAVE to pay for those rings, but it's something in Matt's favor in negotiating.

Expansion draft is where things get tricky (again!). If Jarry keeps this up, he is looking like a top contender to be taken by Seattle. So whatever contract you lock Murray into shouldn't have a NMC, but Murray's camp is going to want one. Going to be real interesting.

 

[EightyOne]

He's not worth more than 6 max at this point.

If he backstops them with a better than .915 to another cup...maybe I'd pay 8.

 

[Khelandros]

So overall it looks like he's an above average starter? What do you think above average starters make?

5-6MM bucks is within the range. Now, how many of them have 2 rings? Not saying the Pens HAVE to pay for those rings, but it's something in Matt's favor in negotiating.

Expansion draft is where things get tricky (again!). If Jarry keeps this up, he is looking like a top contender to be taken by Seattle. So whatever contract you lock Murray into shouldn't have a NMC, but Murray's camp is going to want one. Going to be real interesting.

Numbers show he is an average goaltender, with periods of being very good. With there being 31 teams, 31 starters, 1-10 being above average, 11-20 being average, and 21-31 being below average.
GAA is what I look at, SV% is too heavily weighted by shot attempts. A goalie facing more shots will have a higher SV%, where as the number of goals let in on average is pretty reliable. Murrays GAA puts him in the average category.

He's not worth more than 6 max at this point.

If he backstops them with a better than .915 to another cup...maybe I'd pay 8.

If he wins another Cup, I say let another team pay him the $8MM and enjoy the fact that the Pens have won 3 cups in 5 years. I'd rather use the $6MM saved on quality D or bottom 6 depth and try for another Cup with Jarry and DeSmith splitting time.

 

[Shady Machine]

Numbers show he is an average goaltender, with periods of being very good. With there being 31 teams, 31 starters, 1-10 being above average, 11-20 being average, and 21-31 being below average.
GAA is what I look at, SV% is too heavily weighted by shot attempts. A goalie facing more shots will have a higher SV%, where as the number of goals let in on average is pretty reliable. Murrays GAA puts him in the average category.

If he wins another Cup, I say let another team pay him the $8MM and enjoy the fact that the Pens have won 3 cups in 5 years. I'd rather use the $6MM saved on quality D or bottom 6 depth and try for another Cup with Jarry and DeSmith splitting time.

And my 5-6MM figure was looking at goalies in the 10-15 range of caphits. So anyone saying they wouldn't pay Murray more than his current contract just aren't being realistic with what the market is for starting goalies.

I understand the idea of wanting to move on from Murray and have a cheaper option in net with similar results (Jarry), but until we KNOW Jarry can hack it in the playoffs, it's too much of a risk. I am in wait and see mode the rest of the year, but the safe bet is on extending Murray.

 

[Khelandros]

And my 5-6MM figure was looking at goalies in the 10-15 range of caphits. So anyone saying they wouldn't pay Murray more than his current contract just aren't being realistic with what the market is for starting goalies.

I understand the idea of wanting to move on from Murray and have a cheaper option in net with similar results (Jarry), but until we KNOW Jarry can hack it in the playoffs, it's too much of a risk. I am in wait and see mode the rest of the year, but the safe bet is on extending Murray.

Murray played 13 regular season games in 2015-16, and no one knew what he could do in the Playoffs. I have no issue extending Murrary, but it would be a 2 year deal at the $5-6MM range. It would have to be a show me contract and if he continues with the hot and cold slumps form the last couple of years, I would start looking at other options.

 

[Shady Machine]

Murray played 13 regular season games in 2015-16, and no one knew what he could do in the Playoffs. I have no issue extending Murrary, but it would be a 2 year deal at the $5-6MM range. It would have to be a show me contract and if he continues with the hot and cold slumps form the last couple of years, I would start looking at other options.

And it took Fleury injuries to see what Matt had. Jarry needs to get the games for me to feel comfortable seriously discussing moving on from Murray. If Jarry continues to play at this level (or reasonably close) through 30 or so games this year and then puts up some wins in the playoffs, let's talk.

That said, I like your 2 year 5-6MM deal and would prefer to go that route in offseason based on what we know now. Trick is Murray will likely push for NMC on that deal and that means we have to protect him at expansion unless he's willing to waive.

 

[Khelandros]

And it took Fleury injuries to see what Matt had. Jarry needs to get the games for me to feel comfortable seriously discussing moving on from Murray. If Jarry continues to play at this level (or reasonably close) through 30 or so games this year and then puts up some wins in the playoffs, let's talk.

That said, I like your 2 year 5-6MM deal and would prefer to go that route in offseason based on what we know now. Trick is Murray will likely push for NMC on that deal and that means we have to protect him at expansion unless he's willing to waive.

He is going to be RFA. He is not eligable for NMC/NTC.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

So overall it looks like he's an above average starter? What do you think above average starters make?

5-6MM bucks is within the range. Now, how many of them have 2 rings? Not saying the Pens HAVE to pay for those rings, but it's something in Matt's favor in negotiating.

Expansion draft is where things get tricky (again!). If Jarry keeps this up, he is looking like a top contender to be taken by Seattle. So whatever contract you lock Murray into shouldn't have a NMC, but Murray's camp is going to want one. Going to be real interesting.

5.5m/yr for 3yrs is what I would do. If he rebounds to how he normally does each season.

 

[Shady Machine]

He is going to be RFA. He is not eligable for NMC/NTC.

Duh thanks.

 

[Flying Dego]

5.5m/yr for 3yrs is what I would do. If he rebounds to how he normally does each season.

Now your in my range for goalies. Anything above 6 makes me way too nervous. With his ups and downs I think he should have this value range.

 

[Khelandros]

5.5m/yr for 3yrs is what I would do. If he rebounds to how he normally does each season.

That 3rd year just makes it too much of a gamble. 2 year "bridge" is the safe bet.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

2015-16: Played 13 games. Doesn't count
2016-17: Played 49 games, 4th in SV%, 10th in GAA
2017-18: Played 49 games, 26th in SV%, 22nd in GAA
2018-19: Played 50 games, 7th in SV%, 14th in GAA
41 games used as requirement for placement. There is 1 top 5 stat in all of that.

It's almost like there's a reason he's played no more than 50 games....

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

I think a lot of people are going to look VERY silly in a few years when someone bumps this thread. Just take a look around. Look at Vasi. Look at Gibson. Look at Jones. Remember what MAF went through. Look at Rinne. Look at pretty much EVERY starting goalie and see they have their ups/downs in their career. And thinking backups can be guaranteed starters? Scott Darling. There are probably 100 examples but that is the one you need.

It's only in some wild world people think starting goalies never falter. We have a great trio of goalies. Keep running with it. Let's go.

The problem here is that MM should have a bigger sample size than what he's played (injury related).

Ask me to rank him and it's almost an incomplete for me. Those goalies you mentioned, they all have been healthy/available. I don't know who MM is and so far through ~1/3 of the season he's not gonna get as many starts as I thought to evaluate him.

But as I've mentioned throughout this thread and other places, he's got some major kinks in his game that he needs to figure out or else he'll end up like Cam Ward 2.0

 

[Louis Hensler]

Doesn't the start tonight mean Jarry now is the #1? He starts again after a weak outing and days off?