Speculation: Is Lucic at the top of the pops?

[780il]

Talbot has been our 2nd best player, Nuge 3rd, and Nurse 4th. Lucic is there at 5 for me and he's been good thus far.

 

[MessierII]

Talbot has been our 2nd best player,

Really? He’s been pretty terrible at times. Last game was his best but I wouldn’t even have him in the convo overall.

 

[McFlyingV]

Really? He’s been pretty terrible at times. Last game was his best but I wouldn’t even have him in the convo overall.

The reason I left Talbot out as well was my comment on inconsistency. Talbot wasn't very good in the first two games, and the first half of the Winnipeg game, but he was very good in NY, great last night, and great in the 2nd half of the Jets game.

 

[Spawn]

No points in his last 4 games.... 1 shot at 5v5 through 5 games....

He's throwing lots of hits... good for him. Can pay a lot less than $6M for a guy to throw a bunch of hits and right now that is literally all he's doing.

 

[Mr Positive]

No points in his last 4 games.... 1 shot at 5v5 through 5 games....

He's throwing lots of hits... good for him. Can pay a lot less than $6M for a guy to throw a bunch of hits and right now that is literally all he's doing.

Lucic has been hitting a lot, and doing so while meshing on his lines and having a positive impact (although I'm aware he's a minus player currently). He's been getting good shots on net in these games he hasn't been getting points in too. I do believe in the 'eye test' and so far he's been doing great.

Plus I don't see the point on dwelling on his salary. He's got a NMC so we have no options. He was a negative last season, so even if he's not worth 6 million at least he's helping the team.

And btw, if you're maybe turning this into a Chia question, like if Lucic is good that means that Chia did a good thing signing him, I'll just say Chia hasn't been vindicated on that signing yet. It's still been a rough ride for the most part. I'm just focused on what the team is now.

 

[Spawn]

Lucic has been hitting a lot, and doing so while meshing on his lines and having a positive impact (although I'm aware he's a minus player currently). He's been getting good shots on net in these games he hasn't been getting points in too. I do believe in the 'eye test' and so far he's been doing great.

Plus I don't see the point on dwelling on his salary. He's got a NMC so we have no options. He was a negative last season, so even if he's not worth 6 million at least he's helping the team.

And btw, if you're maybe turning this into a Chia question, like if Lucic is good that means that Chia did a good thing signing him, I'll just say Chia hasn't been vindicated on that signing yet. It's still been a rough ride for the most part. I'm just focused on what the team is now.

No interest in debating Chiarelli in this thread, don't worry.

But if he was getting "good shots on net" he'd actually have some shots on net wouldn't he? I'll say it again. 3 shots in 5 games. 1 at 5v5.

Literally the only thing he's doing right now is hitting. The bar has been set so incredibly low for this player that looking engaged is apparently the only requirement now.

 

[rboomercat90]

I think he has been great. I’m enjoying his play right now. Call it rose coloured glasses or whatever you want, I could care less. I’m a bit sad you can’t just sit and enjoy a game, but you go ahead and you be you.

Some people only see value in points and assists.

 

[rboomercat90]

No interest in debating Chiarelli in this thread, don't worry.

But if he was getting "good shots on net" he'd actually have some shots on net wouldn't he? I'll say it again. 3 shots in 5 games. 1 at 5v5.

Literally the only thing he's doing right now is hitting. The bar has been set so incredibly low for this player that looking engaged is apparently the only requirement now.

It’s a big step up from last year. Gotta start somewhere.

 

[nabob]

Talbot has been our 2nd best player, Nuge 3rd, and Nurse 4th. Lucic is there at 5 for me and he's been good thus far.

Talbot has not been our 2nd best player. He’s been very average in a couple games and good in a couple.

Better than last season, but that’s not saying much.

 

[nabob]

No interest in debating Chiarelli in this thread, don't worry.

But if he was getting "good shots on net" he'd actually have some shots on net wouldn't he? I'll say it again. 3 shots in 5 games. 1 at 5v5.

Literally the only thing he's doing right now is hitting. The bar has been set so incredibly low for this player that looking engaged is apparently the only requirement now.

So shots on net is how players who aren’t big shooters are judged now? Looks like you’re making up new reasons to dislike a player you clearly dislike.

 

[nabob]

Third best I'd say. Nugent Hopkins has been the 2nd best player for the Oilers thus far.

That being said, and I've said it many times before, the hate of him is burned so deep into some guys that it really doesn't matter to them that he is playing the best hockey he has played in an Oilers uniform. If that third line sticks together and has the chemistry we have saw so far, the points will come. If he is given PP1 time and that third line gels, he will get 50 points.

But some guys will ***** just to *****. They want to have their cake and eat it too. They will ***** when he's in the top 6 and want him out, and then they will ***** when he's in the bottom 6 and not producing as much. It's never ending.

 

[KCC]

I think the measure for Lucics play isnt just how many points he has.

I look for a few things...is he contributing to keeping the play alive or is he killing the play?
Is he getting involved on the forecheck or is he playing a perimeter game?

Is he is scoring position (in front of the net) and contributing to the offence in some way?
Is he keeping up with the play?

I would say that the answer to all these questions is absolutely yes. So although I dont think he has been better than RNH I do think he has been an impact player so far. He might well be the 3rd best player on the team so far.

If he gets 50 points playing on the 3rd line with PP time then that has to be considered a very good year for him.
The key to evaluating Lucic is to accept that he will never out preform his contract.

For what he’s being paid, he needs to start contributing more on the scoresheet.

 

[Spawn]

Some people only see value in points and assists.

Some people need more than hits to see value...

 

[nexttothemoon]

I'm not a member of the "Lucic Hater" club... but I wouldn't say he's been the 2nd best Oiler.

Honestly McDavid has been #1/2/3 and probably #4 and #5 as well.

RNH is next and then Talbot.

Talbot has had some questionable games... but also some good ones... and let's face it... most of the non-McDavid players on this team have had slow starts so far... and overall most have given everything back defensively that they've managed to produce offensively.

 

[rboomercat90]

Some people need more than hits to see value...

We’re never going to see value on his contract. There’s no question he’s overpaid. What we need to see is him making positive contributions of some kind to help the team win. I’d rather see him doing something, anything than what we saw last year. If he can find some type of role to help the team we benefit. Maybe enough even that another team will want to take him off our hands.

 

[guymez]

For what he’s being paid, he needs to start contributing more on the scoresheet.

You missed my last sentence.

I am not suggesting he doesn't...I am just saying that Lucic will never be close to full value for that contract offensively.

 

[Raoul Duke]

Lucic has played like a good third line winger. It’s an improvement, no doubt.
If that makes him the second best player, (it doesn’t) it’s not a ringing endorsement of the line up.

 

[LTIR]

I'm just glad that he isn't a liability this year.
As for the poll it's an easy No.

 

[Aerrol]

Lucic has been better but he's still bobbling pucks and can't shoot to save his life for the most part. At least he's showing a lot more hustle which is good. Kind of shocked to see people say he's been our second best player. I'd say he's behind all of: McDavid, RNH, Talbot, Klefbom, Nurse, and Larsson. It's not even close for me. For the 'debatable' ones:

Klef still doesn't look like 16-17 offensively but has been pretty steady defensively, good on the breakout, and has actually kept the puck in at the blueline on the powerplay. I think Klef deserves way more credit for keeping the defence afloat right now.

Nurse has been up and down, but he has outright been dominant for stretches in two games now. Lucic doesn't even come close to Nurse's highs. The lows are what make it even debatable and IMO it's not close.

Larsson does look like his back still is hampering him, but he's made good crisp breakouts and been pretty good at retrieving the puck on the boards. IMO the most debatable with Lucic has he's had quite a few screw-ups allowing clean zone entries, but I still take what Larsson's giving over Looch.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Nuge, Nurse, and Larsson have all been better.

Looch is looking good though. He’s playing fast (by his standards) and physical, I’m happy with him.

Nuge for me is the clear cut #2 so far. Not sure how many points he has but he's also hit a ton of posts so he could have more. Nurse and Lars have been solid as has Klefbom IMO. The offense hasn't been there from Klef but he's been much more engaged physically and better defensively so far this season. In summary he's probably been our 3rd or 4th best forward which is right where we need him to be until guys like Jesse and Kailer take the steps forward that we need them to take.

 

[McDNicks17]

Some might say he's been the cream of the crop.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I'd say he's been consistently one of our top 4 forwards.

Lucic isn't on the scoresheet, but his line gains posession of the offensive zone, and has the ability to hem them in for extended periods of time. He seems to mesh really well with Strome, and Yam, and that line seems to dictate play more often than not.

He's not a great skater, so putting him on a line built to rush like our top 6 won't work. But he's been very good at battling for space in traffic, and creating space for his linemates.

If he keeps playing like this, I'll be happy. Even if he only gets 33 points (Which I'm pretty sure will skew north of 40 if he keeps this up).

 

[Raoul Duke]

Some might say he's been the cream of the crop.

Too hot to handle, too cold to hold.
Dig it.

 

[Satire]

He has been our 4th or 5th best player.

McDavid
Talbot
Nuge
Nurse
Lucic

I think best is subjective. If we are measuring it by points and shot metrics he hasn't been great. I think in terms of being engaged and high energy he has been fantastic. He's not worth his 6 million contract but he is bringing it every night. The effort level has been top notch.

 

[GameChanger]

Any progression is positive and you guys know the current situation better as I've missed watching half of the games. Please don't take me wrong, I think it's just terrific if Lucic is doing better. However, it isn't seen in the advanced stats.

Like I wrote before Lucic's +-, corsis and fenwicks are among the worst of the team, but now I noticed his Expected +- is the last of the team. I've never seen that stat earlier so does anyone know if it has any actual meaning?

This new metric, utilizing league-wide shot location data, shows what we'd expect a player's +/- to be, based on where his team's shots and his opponent's shots came from while we has on the ice in even strength situations. The expected value of these shots is based upon league-wide shooting percentages from the various locations.

Like I said I hope he'll do fine this season, and anyway five games is not too much when it comes to stats. I also don't want take anyone's hopes down as it'd be great if Lucic could be clearly better. I still wanted to bring these up to hopefully add a bit to the discussion that's going on here.