Is Jonathan Quick still a top 5 starter?

[SladeWilson23]

How is Quick average?

 

[rynryn]

oh here we go. the whole usefulness of stats thing again. Nah, i'm done.

 

[chunkylover53]

yes because:

Dwight King
Devin Setoguchi
Kevin Gravel
Trevor Lewis
Jordan Nolan
Kyle Clifford
Tanner Pearson
Dustin Brown
Marian Gaborik
Teddy Purcell
Nick Shore
Andy Andreoff
Nic Dowd
Brayden McNabb
Derek Forbort
Matt Greene
Tom Gilbert

are all players that makes a team GRRRRREAAAT!

Look at the Kings teams he had and tell me they are bad, even now. They won a Cup even though his play was mediocre. If the Kings were like Carolina bad he'd be Cam Ward.

 

[kingsholygrail]

Look at the Kings teams he had and tell me they are bad, even now. They won a Cup even though his play was mediocre. If the Kings were like Carolina bad he'd be Cam Ward.

How was his play mediocre?

 

[Bleedred]

I'm on the Quick is overrated camp, great team he has though. He'd be Cam Ward if the Kings were a bad team.

No he wouldn't, Quick is not nearly on par with Cam Ward since the most recent lockout ended. This is an insult to Quick, even if I personally don't think he's as good as some people do.

Ward has been the NHL's worst starter since 12-13, even worse than Pavelec. He's been having an alright year but I don't expect it to continue. Lehtonen is quickly making a run at being the worst, but even he had two solid seasons after the 2012 lockout but has been even worse than Ward over the last two years and it's continuing into this year.

 

[Bleedred]

I don't because I watch them every game. The difference is night and day.

I think he was being sarcastic, as their stats prove otherwise.

DEFINITE sarcasm there.

Although Budaj seemed to have had a pretty good game against Pittsburgh (38 or 39 save shutout), I think Budaj is playing over his head this year. I hope things work out for him and he can secure an NHL backup position somewhere after this season, as he's been out of the league for a few years now and he's been a nice story this season.

 

[Frank Drebin]

What's up with the bumping of the quick threads?

 

[LAKings88]

Quick doesn't even play and gets crapped on. Why is it that Quick gets flak for playing on a sound team when others don't?

Goaltending is symbiotic.

Quick has shown he is a great goalie over the years. LA didn't become what it is until Quick stepped between the pipes.

Budaj and Zatkoff have cemented how good Quick is for me. Budaj has performed admirably but he is no where near Quick.

 

[WeThreeKings]

The funny thing is theres a million threads about how goalies suck these days and are Michelin men

Then you have Quick who plays with more athleticism than any other goalie in the league and people refuse to give him any credit.

 

[SladeWilson23]

oh here we go. the whole usefulness of stats thing again. Nah, i'm done.

So why is Quick average?

 

[Korpse]

The funny thing is theres a million threads about how goalies suck these days and are Michelin men

Then you have Quick who plays with more athleticism than any other goalie in the league and people refuse to give him any credit.

Don't get me wrong I love his athleticism and I believe it's an extremely valuable trait among goaltenders. Every time I watch quick he is too "busy", too aggressive. I find LA is very good at protecting the net and eliminating second chance opportunities and it really plays to quicks strengths but move him to a team that isnt as equipped to take care of the second chance opportunities Quick leaves and he would struggle. That's not to say I think Quick isn't a very good goaltender just that top 5 has been generous.

 

[skiba77777]

when was he a top 5 goalie?

 

[NDiesel]

So why is Quick average?

You weren't quoting me, but here's my opinion on him. He's definitely top 15 in this league, meaning at least above average. However, I believe he's only above average and not elite because of his athleticism. Hear me out:

Kings are my second favourite team so I watch them often. He has the ability to make these amazing split/stretch saves and absolutely rob people, however because of this I find he often overplays on passes allowing an easier goal and making him more predictable. The other reason I only put him as top 15 is because he plays on an elite defensive team but puts up average stats. In the playoffs, Quick is money and I'd select very few over him, but he usually is pretty average it the regular season, bringing his stock down due to consistency questions.

Those saying he's average are exaggerating, but those who think he are elite aren't correct, in my opinion at least.

 

[SladeWilson23]

You weren't quoting me, but here's my opinion on him. He's definitely top 15 in this league, meaning at least above average. However, I believe he's only above average and not elite because of his athleticism. Hear me out:

Kings are my second favourite team so I watch them often. He has the ability to make these amazing split/stretch saves and absolutely rob people, however because of this I find he often overplays on passes allowing an easier goal and making him more predictable. The other reason I only put him as top 15 is because he plays on an elite defensive team but puts up average stats. In the playoffs, Quick is money and I'd select very few over him, but he usually is pretty average it the regular season, bringing his stock down due to consistency questions.

Those saying he's average are exaggerating, but those who think he are elite aren't correct, in my opinion at least.

He has the best GAA since 2011-2012. How is that average? His SV% is also artificially deflated from playing behind such a great shot suppression team.

 

[NDiesel]

He has the best GAA since 2011-2012. How is that average? His SV% is also artificially deflated from playing behind such a great shot suppression team.

Both those points would prove my point that you also bolded, that they are elite defensively. You may say his SV% is low because of their shot suppression skill, but how come you also don't mention that his GAA is low because of their shot suppression? This team is top 10 in GA with Peter Budaj in net. You don't think that their play artificially deflates his GAA as well as SV%? It goes both ways. Brian Elliot had amazing stats on another team who is known for their shot suppression. How come his SV% wasn't artificially deflated?

You can argue he's elite, I simply don't see it. He's above average until playoff time which is where he plays his best.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Both those points would prove my point that you also bolded, that they are elite defensively. You may say his SV% is low because of their shot suppression skill, but how come you also don't mention that his GAA is low because of their shot suppression? This team is top 10 in GA with Peter Budaj in net. You don't think that their play artificially deflates his GAA as well as SV%? It goes both ways. Brian Elliot had amazing stats on another team who is known for their shot suppression. How come his SV% wasn't artificially deflated?

You can argue he's elite, I simply don't see it. He's above average until playoff time which is where he plays his best.

Goalies have more control over their GAA than the defense does. And goalies have more control over their GAA than they do their SV%.

Every single goalie in the league and has ever played has a lower cumulative SV% in lower shot volume games than they do in higher shot volume games. I like to use "29 shots or fewer" vs "30 shots or more". Reason being, is because the average number of shots per game per team since shot counting started has been right around 30 give or take.

Quick has the lowest percentage of games where he faced over 30 shots. Most goalies are at least 40%, while Quick is below 30%.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'd say no pretty easily. Just off the top of my head, I think Price, Holtby, Lundqvist, Schneider, Crawford, Rask, Luongo, Dubnyk and Bishop are ahead of him and Murray could be above him by the end of this season. He's probably fringe top-10.

 

[Doctor No]

Every single goalie in the league and has ever played has a lower cumulative SV% in lower shot volume games than they do in higher shot volume games. I like to use "29 shots or fewer" vs "30 shots or more". Reason being, is because the average number of shots per game per team since shot counting started has been right around 30 give or take.

Since you bothered to bold it, and using your splits (<=29, >=30):

Here are a few goalies who are counterexamples to your claim:

Ron Low, Cesare Maniago, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jim Rutherford, Allan Bester, Glen Hanlon, Chico Resch, Doug Favell, Dunc Wilson, Murray Bannerman, Jeff Hackett, Jonas Hiller, Gary Edwards, Roger Crozier, James Reimer, Bob Sauve, Kevin Weekes, Jaroslav Halak, Wayne Thomas, Mario Lessard, Mark Fitzpatrick, Sergei Bobrovsky, Craig Billington, Chris Mason, Greg Stefan, Pete LoPresti, Rick DiPietro, Bernie Parent, Bernie Wolfe, Ed Staniowski, Michel Larocque, Pete Peeters, Milan Hnilicka, Frank Pietrangelo, Pat Riggin.

There's plenty more, but that seems like enough to prove a point. Data is from 1970 through now, although that doesn't affect very many of the above.

Your thesis is largely true, but making bombastic statements that are false roughly one fifth of the time (as is the case here) doesn't help you.

 

[SladeWilson23]

Since you bothered to bold it, and using your splits (<=29, >=30):

Here are a few goalies who are counterexamples to your claim:

Ron Low, Cesare Maniago, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jim Rutherford, Allan Bester, Glen Hanlon, Chico Resch, Doug Favell, Dunc Wilson, Murray Bannerman, Jeff Hackett, Jonas Hiller, Gary Edwards, Roger Crozier, James Reimer, Bob Sauve, Kevin Weekes, Jaroslav Halak, Wayne Thomas, Mario Lessard, Mark Fitzpatrick, Sergei Bobrovsky, Craig Billington, Chris Mason, Greg Stefan, Pete LoPresti, Rick DiPietro, Bernie Parent, Bernie Wolfe, Ed Staniowski, Michel Larocque, Pete Peeters, Milan Hnilicka, Frank Pietrangelo, Pat Riggin.

There's plenty more, but that seems like enough to prove a point. Data is from 1970 through now, although that doesn't affect very many of the above.

Your thesis is largely true, but making bombastic statements that are false roughly one fifth of the time (as is the case here) doesn't help you.

A lot of those names are names that played before SV% was even a stat. Some of those names are also downright wrong.

Fleury
<=29: .909
>=30: .924

Halak
<=29: .915
>=30: .931

Bobrovsky
<=29: .910
>=30: .930

C. Mason
<=29: .906
>=30: .928

DiPietro
<=29: .894
>=30: .918

Fitzpatrick
<=29: .882
>=30: .911

Hackett
<=29: .901
>=30: .912

Hiller
<=29: .904
>=30: .931

Reimer
<=29: .898
>=30: .929

Weekes
<=29: .900
>=30: .917

 

[Doctor No]

A lot of those names are names that played before SV% was even a stat. Some of those names are also downright wrong.

An official stat, you mean. Some people (including myself) have put a lot of work into the research prior to that period.

And I question your results (even ignoring that you are only counting full games, which skews things in one particular direction). Would you mind sending me the data that you're using for, say, Bobrovsky? Are you using his entire career?

Mine is published at http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/bobrovsky.html under NHL GAME LOGS. I get 91.4%/90.4% for <=29/>=30, respectively.

 

[SladeWilson23]

An official stat, you mean. Some people (including myself) have put a lot of work into the research prior to that period.

And I question your results (even ignoring that you are only counting full games, which skews things in one particular direction). Would you mind sending me the data that you're using for, say, Bobrovsky? Are you using his entire career?

Mine is published at http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/bobrovsky.html under NHL GAME LOGS. I get 91.4%/90.4% for <=29/>=30, respectively.

Using only complete games eliminates variables. If I did include the partial games, the <=29 SV% would look even worse.

What I used was hockey-reference player game finder. It lists all the games the goalie played under the parameters I set.

Bobrovksy <=29 shots
http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&player=bobrose01&is_playoffs=N&group_set=single&series_game_min=1&series_game_max=7&team_game_min=1&team_game_max=84&player_game_min=1&player_game_max=9999&pos=G&c1stat=time_on_ice&c1comp=gt&c1val=55&c2stat=shots_against&c2comp=lt&c2val=29&order_by=time_on_ice

Bobrovksy >=30 shots
http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=game&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&player=bobrose01&is_playoffs=N&group_set=single&series_game_min=1&series_game_max=7&team_game_min=1&team_game_max=84&player_game_min=1&player_game_max=9999&pos=G&c1stat=time_on_ice&c1comp=gt&c1val=55&c2stat=shots_against&c2comp=gt&c2val=30&order_by=time_on_ice

I then turned the table into a CSV and uploaded it into Google Sheets. Here's a link to my Bobrovsky sheet.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XfKQm3HW2PoMNFzioIqBDrZlWNAGAEATjb_ATn7uNR4/edit#gid=0

BTW, all of my data does not include this year.

 

[rynryn]

How about save percentage while leading vs trailing?

Is there a marked difference globally for that? Is that "score effects"?

 

[SladeWilson23]

How about save percentage while leading vs trailing?

Is there a marked difference globally for that? Is that "score effects"?

Yes score effects are real. I definitely am not the one to ask about that though. Dr. No definitely would be.

 

[Doctor No]

Thank you for your data - I found the flaw on my end with Bobrovsky, and match your conclusion directionally (I get 90.9%/92.1%).

The dangers of doing things quickly.

Louis Domingue appears to be a counterexample, among others.

 

[SladeWilson23]

I disagree.

Thank you for the data - under your assumptions, I do match your conclusions (I didn't have access to your calculations, so I replicated them using the data).

One problem with your calculation is that by eliminating full games, you're discounting 13% of Bobrovsky's appearances - and a biased 13% at that, since (as you'd expect) goaltenders do worse when not playing a full game.

For instance, you're discounting a game where Bobrovsky played 20 minutes, allowing four goals on eleven shots (33 shots/full game).

And it does make a difference.

If you (or anyone else) would like to review, please visit
http://hockeygoalies.org/Bobrovsky.xlsx

I'm not saying you're wrong, but what I'm trying to show you is how a strong shot suppressing defense can deflate a SV%. Goalies who play on teams with good defenses see fewer shots per game. Quick seeing 25 shots in complete games is practically a regular occurrence for him. What I'm trying to show is how that hurts his SV%.