Is John Tavares a future HOF?

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Right now he wouldn't be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer. But he has some of the hardware to get him in, like all the gold medals he has. Right now I'd say he'd get in either his second or third year of eligibility. If he wins a cup he gets in first year of eligibility.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Where are all his nhl trophies ?

 

[Hurt]

Someone said he has had 4-5 'elite seasons'... I can't agree with that. In fact, I don't think he has had any 'elite' seasons. The year Benn won the scoring race with one point was such a weird year. But even if you do want to count that as 'elite', he hasn't really had any other of those. He has cracked 80 points twice. He's a hell of a player and is probably not playing to his max potential in NYI but he's not some 1st ballot surefire HOFer at his current pace. With that said, if he can maintain being 'good', he'll probably get in on consistency of points as he'll end up with a healthy amount and it's not as hard to get in the Hall these days.

 

[cptjeff]

Also, I think JT won a World Junior Championship

Exactly no one with a Hall of Fame vote gives a flying f***.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Someone said he has had 4-5 'elite seasons'... I can't agree with that. In fact, I don't think he has had any 'elite' seasons. The year Benn won the scoring race with one point was such a weird year. But even if you do want to count that as 'elite', he hasn't really had any other of those. He has cracked 80 points twice. He's a hell of a player and is probably not playing to his max potential in NYI but he's not some 1st ballot surefire HOFer at his current pace. With that said, if he can maintain being 'good', he'll probably get in on consistency of points as he'll end up with a healthy amount and it's not as hard to get in the Hall these days.

So as a Leafs fan you'd be comfortable saying Sundin was never close to having an elite season?

 

[Sensinitis]

Gartner at least has a couple goal-scoring records, and is remembered as one of the fastest players in NHL history. Players like that are exceptions regardless.

Tavares so far has had a good career as an above-average #1C, yeah he could play for a long time, so we'll see. Maybe I just not familiar enough with HHOF standards.

True but I'd bet if you drew up a list of >/= comparisons for Tavares, most of them wouldn't be in. Someone like Nieuwendyk also accomplished way more in the NHL.

Eh, goal scoring record holder from the highest scoring era ever...being remembered as the fastest...doesnt strike me as relevant. But again this goes back to my other point, its not easy to distinguish one's personal standards from the Hall's. I dont think being remembered as the fastest means anything, but maybe it played a role in the selection

 

[Sensinitis]

Someone said he has had 4-5 'elite seasons'... I can't agree with that. In fact, I don't think he has had any 'elite' seasons. The year Benn won the scoring race with one point was such a weird year. But even if you do want to count that as 'elite', he hasn't really had any other of those. He has cracked 80 points twice. He's a hell of a player and is probably not playing to his max potential in NYI but he's not some 1st ballot surefire HOFer at his current pace. With that said, if he can maintain being 'good', he'll probably get in on consistency of points as he'll end up with a healthy amount and it's not as hard to get in the Hall these days.

I think this is just bad analysis.

11-12: 81 pts - 7th in points, 9th in PPG, played on a line with Moulson (69 pts) and Parenteau (67 pts), these two players never hit 60pts in their careers again, next best scorer on the team was Nielsen with 47 pts.

12-13: 47pts in 48 games - 17th in points, next in scoring on his team are again his linemates, this time Moulson (44) and Boyes (35). Next best is Nielsen at 29. Despite the scoring finish, its another solid season as the short season gave way to some fluky midseason paces. On a full season he probably ranks higher in pts.

13-14: 66 pts in 59 games - i believe he was leading, or top3 minimum, the scoring race before injury at the olympics. Finishex 4th in PPG. He was lighting it up with linemates Okposo and Vanek, both of whom he was still outscoring. This was Okposo's best offensive season ever and coincidentally it was the one where he was playing the most 5on5 with Tavares.

14-15: 86 pts - 2nd in pts, 5th in PPG, lost the scoring race on the very last game day, next on the team are Okposo with 51 (in 60), and Strome with 50. Note that, in the top 5 scoring that year, Tavares is the only one without a teammate that is in the top15 in points or ppg (Benn-Seguin, Crosby-Malkin, Ovie-Backstrom, Voracek-Giroux).

15-16 and 16-17 are definitely down years relative to his standards. No top 10 in either pts or ppg, still led his team in scoring each time. He went ppg in the 2016 playoffs, and has 22 pts in 24 career playoff games.

I think he's been elite for a span of 3-4 seasons before the two somewhat down seasons, especially if you consider his context. Raw points dont mean anything all by themselves. Tavares proved that himself: Moulson was never really a 30 goal, 60 pt player.

 

[Laineux]

Someone said he has had 4-5 'elite seasons'... I can't agree with that. In fact, I don't think he has had any 'elite' seasons. The year Benn won the scoring race with one point was such a weird year. But even if you do want to count that as 'elite', he hasn't really had any other of those. He has cracked 80 points twice. He's a hell of a player and is probably not playing to his max potential in NYI but he's not some 1st ballot surefire HOFer at his current pace. With that said, if he can maintain being 'good', he'll probably get in on consistency of points as he'll end up with a healthy amount and it's not as hard to get in the Hall these days.

John Tavares' 14-15 season would be top four in every last four years. It's undeniably an elite season unless you have some ridiculous standard for elite.

 

[Kocur Dill]

I feel like this thread is going in the same direction as the Pierre Turgeon HOF inquiry.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2169603

 

[Sensinitis]

I feel like this thread is going in the same direction as the Pierre Turgeon HOF inquiry.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2169603

Well at least Turgeon-Tavares makes for a better comparison than Tavares- Doug Weight...and i cant overstate this more

 

[nuck]

He needs to have a stronger second half to his career. The Isles are not a high profile market, and they have had little playoff success in his tenure so the club doesn't help him(yet). He needs to pile up a ton more points well into his 30s like Sundin did, or play for a club that has multiple strong playoff runs. An elite line mate would really help him but the Isles missed the boat with the high picks they had after JT and dealt Hamonic for picks instead of Taylor Hall so things are not lining up in his favor there. Maybe Eberle regains his 21 year old scoring touch. I think most players have shown their best seasons by 26-27 age so the chances of 90 points next year are not very good.

I would say he doesn't get there if he has another 65 point year with Eberle, because thats three weak scoring years in a row. If he has 80 points then he is still in the running, and more so if he goes to a higher profile market. Fine player but at least half of the HOF success involves the team around a player.

 

[kmad]

He could be but isn't yet

 

[Son Goku]

Hall of pretty good. I'm really disappointed with how he's progressed, but at the same time I'm actually impressed he hasn't regressed because of his situation.

 

[olli]

I really hope he returns to consistently getting p/g numbers. If so than yes he makes the hof.

 

[LordNeverLose]

I think this is just bad analysis.

11-12: 81 pts - 7th in points, 9th in PPG, played on a line with Moulson (69 pts) and Parenteau (67 pts), these two players never hit 60pts in their careers again, next best scorer on the team was Nielsen with 47 pts.

12-13: 47pts in 48 games - 17th in points, next in scoring on his team are again his linemates, this time Moulson (44) and Boyes (35). Next best is Nielsen at 29. Despite the scoring finish, its another solid season as the short season gave way to some fluky midseason paces. On a full season he probably ranks higher in pts.

13-14: 66 pts in 59 games - i believe he was leading, or top3 minimum, the scoring race before injury at the olympics. Finishex 4th in PPG. He was lighting it up with linemates Okposo and Vanek, both of whom he was still outscoring. This was Okposo's best offensive season ever and coincidentally it was the one where he was playing the most 5on5 with Tavares.

14-15: 86 pts - 2nd in pts, 5th in PPG, lost the scoring race on the very last game day, next on the team are Okposo with 51 (in 60), and Strome with 50. Note that, in the top 5 scoring that year, Tavares is the only one without a teammate that is in the top15 in points or ppg (Benn-Seguin, Crosby-Malkin, Ovie-Backstrom, Voracek-Giroux).

15-16 and 16-17 are definitely down years relative to his standards. No top 10 in either pts or ppg, still led his team in scoring each time. He went ppg in the 2016 playoffs, and has 22 pts in 24 career playoff games.

I think he's been elite for a span of 3-4 seasons before the two somewhat down seasons, especially if you consider his context. Raw points dont mean anything all by themselves. Tavares proved that himself: Moulson was never really a 30 goal, 60 pt player.

Yeah from '11-12 through '14-15 he was undeniably elite every year. And to be fair I don't really think his play has dropped off much the past couple years, he's just seen his point totals fall due to a combination of a terrible PP and an increased attention to his defensive game.

It also doesn't help that the Islanders have no secondary scoring so teams just key in on JT. IMO a quality 2C is a much bigger need than a legit top-line player for JT's wing, since he's already proven he can make scrubs look good.

 

[Deficient Mode]

Should be.

 

[Master P]

I think he falls just short.

 

[MessierII]

Depends what happens when he gets off Long Island.

 

[The Macho King]

No hardware, 2? top 10 scoring finishes.

As of right now, no. If he retired today he wouldn't even be considered. A good second half of his career? Maybe. His skillset should age fairly well. If he gets in it will likely be as a compiler though.

 

[ottawah]

It is the hockey hall of fame, not the NHL hall of fame, and his junior career could well push him over. I'd rate him as the best junior player ever (Q was so bad at the time it is hard to place Mario). Most career goals in the OHL, and he gave up a full three years of eligibility at the end. He would have likely doubled the record if he had stayed. Two WJ gold, including tourney MVP, olympic gold.

I think that combined with what will be a top 50 total points (in a low scoring era) will put him over the top, even if he plods along with the Islanders for another 10+ years.

 

[GordieHowsUrBreath]

Not an exact comparison, but he's reminding me more and more of the Patrick Ewing of the NHL.

that makes him a first ballot hall of famer

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It is the hockey hall of fame, not the NHL hall of fame, and his junior career could well push him over. I'd rate him as the best junior player ever (Q was so bad at the time it is hard to place Mario). Most career goals in the OHL, and he gave up a full three years of eligibility at the end. He would have likely doubled the record if he had stayed. Two WJ gold, including tourney MVP, olympic gold.

I think that combined with what will be a top 50 total points (in a low scoring era) will put him over the top, even if he plods along with the Islanders for another 10+ years.

What? First of all, Tavares set the goal record *because* he played 4 full seasons of junior. Most elite players only get a chance to play 2. Tavares didn't have a better career than a handful of superstars who were way, way more dominant than him just because he hung around long enough to take the most career goals thing.

Second, I don't think you understand how junior works. What is this "he gave up three years of eligibility at the end" nonsense? Tavares was 19 when he was drafted. He literally could have returned for 1 seasons. Two, if he returned as an overager (which no good prospect does anyway, so why even count it).

 

[Cor]

0 personal awards.
0 team awards.
Not PPG.
Only appeared in 4 playoffs rounds in 3 seasons.

Not even close right now.


He needs to leave the Islanders and put himself in a position to succeed, because it doesn't appear the ownership or Garth Snow have any desire to do it