Is it too early for Mike Smith to be serving up a ton of crow?

[Johnnybegood13]

Smith looks like a bonafide starter right now. All Calgary needed from a goalie. Calgary's only main issue right now is secondary scoring.

Or maybe a real coach with a system that allows creativity

 

[tarheelhockey]

If you read the post I was responding to you would notice he/she used the word "awful", not average. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the two do not equal each other. He/she could have said average and I would have been fine with it, but they didn't.

Also, as it was brought up, have a look at the teams he was on when he was posting a league average S%.

I did read that post, and I responded specifically to your using 2012-17 numbers to frame Smith as an above average (.918) goalie when it’s very obvious from his overall body of work that he has been a league-average* (.913) performer for a solid decade now, as well as within the reasonably recent past.

* meaning the average of ALL goalies, not the 30 starters.

 

[blankall]

Or maybe a real coach with a system that allows creativity

Not sure how a line of Brouwer, Stajan, and Versteeg can be creative. It could be a coaching issue though. There's no way those 3 should be playing together.

 

[HugginThePost]

I did read that post, and I responded specifically to your using 2012-17 numbers to frame Smith as an above average (.918) goalie when it’s very obvious from his overall body of work that he has been a league-average* (.913) performer for a solid decade now, as well as within the reasonably recent past.

* meaning the average of ALL goalies, not the 30 starters.

Not sure if you're just being obtuse.....

Yes, he's been average on some pretty bad teams, not awful.....that's all I'm saying.

That and there is nothing about his play, so far this year, that is average.

 

[Oilslick941611]

We'd be down in the hole with the Oilers if it wasn't for him... Feels good to have good goaltending.

down in the hole? you are 5 points up with one more game played. hardly a hole..

 

[tarheelhockey]

Not sure if you're just being obtuse.....

Son, you’re forgetting yourself

 

[HugginThePost]

Son, you’re forgetting yourself

I'm not you're son, pal.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I'm not you're son, pal.

... son?

 

[XX]

Mike Smith is a very average goalie that occasionally gets hot. Sample size matters.

 

[blankall]

Mike Smith is a very average goalie that occasionally gets hot. Sample size matters.

Average goalies don't get selected for the Olympic team, even as backups.

 

[JustaFinnishGuy]

I'm not you're son, pal.

I am not you are son, pal?

 

[Dolemite]

Mike Smith is a very average goalie that occasionally gets hot. Sample size matters.

Yup. That’s Smith in a nutshell. He’s never been able to sustain a high level of excellent play throughout his career.

 

[DJJones]

Yup. That’s Smith in a nutshell. He’s never been able to sustain a high level of excellent play throughout his career.

Carey Price can't maintain a level of excellent level of play in front of a weak team.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Average goalies don't get selected for the Olympic team, even as backups.

Fleury?

 

[HugginThePost]

Fleury?

What's your deal? Why so much hate for the guy?

 

[Dolemite]

Carey Price can't maintain a level of excellent level of play in front of a weak team.

A goalie is only as good as the defense in front of him.

 

[tarheelhockey]

What's your deal? Why so much hate for the guy?

I don't hate him, but I do hate bad arguments. "Average goalies don't make the Olympic roster" is a bad argument, because Fleury and Smith both stand as obvious counterexamples.

 

[blankall]

I don't hate him, but I do hate bad arguments. "Average goalies don't make the Olympic roster" is a bad argument, because Fleury and Smith both stand as obvious counterexamples.

So the Olympic committees, who are extremely knowledgeable, just picked average goalies when many better goalies were available?

 

[mw2noobbuster]

He's looking really solid out there. Can he keep it up? I don't know him or watched him play much so I can't say but he's been impressive.

 

[tarheelhockey]

So the Olympic committees, who are extremely knowledgeable, just picked average goalies when many better goalies were available?

Do we really need to revisit the long and sordid history of questionable Olympic roster decisions? I mean they went with Dan Hamhuis and Chris Kunitz on the same roster, are you telling me those guys are among the 25 best Canadian hockey players?

 

[GeeoffBrown]

To put things in perspective, Smith has been the Flames' MVP this season so far, even though Johnny Gaudreau is top 5 in NHL scoring.

 

[Regal]

I did read that post, and I responded specifically to your using 2012-17 numbers to frame Smith as an above average (.918) goalie when it’s very obvious from his overall body of work that he has been a league-average* (.913) performer for a solid decade now, as well as within the reasonably recent past.

* meaning the average of ALL goalies, not the 30 starters.

The problem with using league average numbers is that, even if you believe defense doesn't have much of an impact on save percentage, PPs undoubtedly do. Smith has faced the most PP shots against by over 100 over his tenure with the Coyotes.

 

[blankall]

Do we really need to revisit the long and sordid history of questionable Olympic roster decisions? I mean they went with Dan Hamhuis and Chris Kunitz on the same roster, are you telling me those guys are among the 25 best Canadian hockey players?

You don't need to be in the 25 best to be above average. There are also picks made based on chemistry and perceived team needs. They don't just randomly pick worse players.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Mike Smith is a very average goalie that occasionally gets hot. Sample size matters.

But average tending + hot tending = good tending ? Isn't that what you want to see from your goalie ?

That's just how goalies work. Nobody is great for full season, and if they are those are often anomalies, or boosted by a great defense.

What matters more is, how you can respond when your team needs you the most. Smith seems to love a challenge and most importantly, plays better. That's why he's unquestionable #1 tender in the NHL (not any of the 1B crap). And if you are that, then you must be pretty good.

His softies might be comical at times, but you rarely see the floodgates opening afterwards. Guys like Lehner, Halak, Mason are all much worse in that regard.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The problem with using league average numbers is that, even if you believe defense doesn't have much of an impact on save percentage, PPs undoubtedly do. Smith has faced the most PP shots against by over 100 over his tenure with the Coyotes.

That's an interesting point. Has anyone crunched the numbers to see how those extra PP shots impacted his save%?

What striking to me about that statistic is that he's only 6th in minutes played during that timeframe. Which is still a lot, but hints at his taking PP shots at a very high rate relative to his minutes in net.

You don't need to be in the 25 best to be above average. There are also picks made based on chemistry and perceived team needs. They don't just randomly pick worse players.

But you are clearly acknowledging here, that there is more to roster selection than how good a player is. There's not a chance in hell that Kunitz makes Team Canada based on being a better player than the guys he beat out.

To be specific about Smith, his selection for the Canadian roster had a lot to do with 1) having had a strong playoffs in 2012 and getting that "tournament goalie" reputation, 2) playing for Team Canada in the World Championships the previous year, while other top goalies were preoccupied in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and 3) being experienced and well suited for the large-ice style of play.

Here's an InGoal article on his selection -- note that it leads with a couple of comments on how questionable his selection seemed at the time: http://ingoalmag.com/news/mike-smith-canada-makes-sense-sochi/

Because let's be honest, there's no way that 2014 Mike Smith is a better overall goalie than Price, Luongo, Holtby, Crawford, or even the 2014 back-from-the-dead version of Mason or fluke-mode Bernier. That's pretty obviously more than 3 Canadian goalies who could have made the roster over him, and further confirmation that if he's ~5th among Canadian goalies then he is de facto an average NHL starter.