Is it too early for Mike Smith to be serving up a ton of crow?

[tarheelhockey]

Funny you call him awful considering since 2012 he has an average save percentage of 0.918.

That's using one flukishly strong season to fluff his otherwise unimpressive numbers.

2007: 23 gm, .912
2008: 34 gm, .901
2009: 41 gm, .916
2010: 42 gm, .900
2011: 22 gm, .899
2012: 67 gm, .930
2013: 34 gm, .910
2014: 62 gm, .915
2015: 62 gm, .904
2016: 32 gm, .916
2017: 55 gm, .914

Career: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)
Median season: .914
Last 6 seasons: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)

The smart money is that Smith is going to experience a "correction" in his numbers before the end of the season.

 

[Jumptheshark]

He took a ton of heat in the off season, especially from the neighbors up north, but he is proving to be a hell of a solid starter.

Thoughts....

so he had one above average game and we get this thread?

• team is one game above 500 7-6
• Smith is 7w 5 lose
• he is 10th in GAA
• 7th in save %

when he is top 5 then we get this thread

 

[JPeeper]

It's cute seeing all the crusty Oiler fans come in this thread to shit on Smith when Talbot isn't carrying the team like he did last year and has fallen back to earth.

The salt.

 

[North Man]

He's had many spectacular games actually, not just one above average. You're just sour because you "jumpedtheshark" last year on Talbot's unsustainable play.

 

[djpatm]

That's using one flukishly strong season to fluff his otherwise unimpressive numbers.

2007: 23 gm, .912
2008: 34 gm, .901
2009: 41 gm, .916
2010: 42 gm, .900
2011: 22 gm, .899
2012: 67 gm, .930
2013: 34 gm, .910
2014: 62 gm, .915
2015: 62 gm, .904
2016: 32 gm, .916
2017: 55 gm, .914

Career: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)
Median season: .914
Last 6 seasons: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)

The smart money is that Smith is going to experience a "correction" in his numbers before the end of the season.

Ignoring the quality of teams he played on hey.

 

[Heldig]

Smith had the double curse of being a bit of an *** and playing in the desert. While Coyote fans generally agreed it was time to move on (the purge of the old guard in Arizona) they also acknowledge Smith was often the only reason they were in games, at all. He routinely stood on his head to keep the woeful Coyotes team even somewhat respectable.

He is a good goalie. Like a lot of goalies he can have really off games. Because he is cocky and a hot head his bad games get magnified. He is infamous for staring down his teammates after a bad goal. That is always good for an eye roll.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Ignoring the quality of teams he played on hey.

The 2014 and 2016 Coyotes were middle of the road teams. He had a .915 and .916 respectively.

Again, smart money is on a goalie who has always been in the .910-.916 range (after 474 games) continuing to play at that level over the long term.

 

[Bleedred]

He's been really good, but do we really think he's going to sustain a .936 the entire season?

At the same time, it makes me laugh at the people who blamed Brian Elliott's below average numbers on the Flames defense being terrible.

The 2014 and 2016 Coyotes were middle of the road teams. He had a .915 and .916 respectively.

Again, smart money is on a goalie who has always been in the .910-.916 range (after 474 games) continuing to play at that level over the long term.

I agree. I expect Smith to finish out the season with a .915-.918 save percentage. He might have a really good season and be around .920 or so. That's if he has a really good season.

It's safe to say that he isn't as good as he was in the 11-12 season and playoffs, and he's not as bad as his dreadful .903 in 14-15. Both were two extreme's in each direction. For me it's too early for him to be serving up a ton of crow. I didn't think he'd be terrible, but figured he'd be near his usual numbers, which are just above average.

 

[Evincar]

That's using one flukishly strong season to fluff his otherwise unimpressive numbers.

2007: 23 gm, .912
2008: 34 gm, .901
2009: 41 gm, .916
2010: 42 gm, .900
2011: 22 gm, .899
2012: 67 gm, .930
2013: 34 gm, .910
2014: 62 gm, .915
2015: 62 gm, .904
2016: 32 gm, .916
2017: 55 gm, .914

Career: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)
Median season: .914
Last 6 seasons: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)

The smart money is that Smith is going to experience a "correction" in his numbers before the end of the season.

He wasnt really a good goalie before he went to Arizona and played for Tippett so I dont see the point in posting his pre-Arizona numbers. I expect him to regress too but I wouldnt be surprised if he posted at least a .920 save %

 

[HugginThePost]

That's using one flukishly strong season to fluff his otherwise unimpressive numbers.

2007: 23 gm, .912
2008: 34 gm, .901
2009: 41 gm, .916
2010: 42 gm, .900
2011: 22 gm, .899
2012: 67 gm, .930
2013: 34 gm, .910
2014: 62 gm, .915
2015: 62 gm, .904
2016: 32 gm, .916
2017: 55 gm, .914

Career: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)
Median season: .914
Last 6 seasons: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)

The smart money is that Smith is going to experience a "correction" in his numbers before the end of the season.

If you read the post I was responding to you would notice he/she used the word "awful", not average. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the two do not equal each other. He/she could have said average and I would have been fine with it, but they didn't.

Also, as it was brought up, have a look at the teams he was on when he was posting a league average S%.

 

[HugginThePost]

so he had one above average game and we get this thread?

• team is one game above 500 7-6
• Smith is 7w 5 lose
• he is 10th in GAA
• 7th in save %

when he is top 5 then we get this thread

So....top 10? Which is exactly how many spots higher than you and your fellow HFOil loyalists predicted?

How many spots higher is that compared to Talbot? He is a Top 3 goalie, right? I mean one year is sufficient to proclaim such things, especially with goalies!

And you may want to have a look a the games he's played if you think it's been one above average game.

Salty indeed!

 

[Jumptheshark]

So....top 10? Which is exactly how many spots higher than you and your fellow HFOil loyalists predicted?

How many spots higher is that compared to Talbot? He is a Top 3 goalie, right? I mean one year is sufficient to proclaim such things, especially with goalies!

And you may want to have a look a the games he's played if you think it's been one above average game.

Salty indeed!

it is the first month of the season

lets talk about this at game 40

it is early days

still 70 games to go

encase you did not know?

you are aware there are 82 games in the season and the season ends in April--this is first week of november

unless they changed the rules and playoffs start tomorrow

not salty

realistic

 

[Elias Pettersson]

Flames beat Anaheim in five or six last year with this Mike Smith.

Flames win the cup in 2004 with Mike Smith

 

[djpatm]

Flames win the cup in 2004 with Mike Smith

He's not peak Kipper quality yet. It would take the full season of play like yesterday for that to be the case.

 

[rent free]

no

Flames beat Anaheim in five or six last year with this Mike Smith.

they lose in 5 or 6 with smith

 

[Bleedred]

He's had many spectacular games actually, not just one above average. You're just sour because you "jumpedtheshark" last year on Talbot's unsustainable play.

Ummm, how was Talbot's play last year unsustainable? He wasn't even significantly better last year than he was in 15-16....

So how was his play last year unsustainable?

Never mind. I think you were saying Jumptheshark claimed Talbot's play last year was unsustainable?

Disregard that.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

He's started 12 games, so yes.

Looking like a good move by Calgary so far though.

 

[Anglesmith]

so he had one above average game and we get this thread?

• team is one game above 500 7-6
• Smith is 7w 5 lose
• he is 10th in GAA
• 7th in save %

when he is top 5 then we get this thread

Every day, thousands of statistics end up in posts like this. Mistreated, abused, forced to exist in arguments they were never meant to be used for. (Sarah McLachlan plays in the background)

so he had one above average game and we get this thread?

Yes, he had one above average game last night. And several others before that this season.

• team is one game above 500 7-6

Yes. The team is. Auston Matthews' team is 8-6, so I guess he sucks. But not as much as McDavid, whose team is 4 games under.

Opening your argument about an individual player by referencing the team record is just silly. You're opening with the weakest possible point.

• Smith is 7w 5 lose

The Flames have scored 25 regulation goals in his 12 starts this season. Thus, just having a winning record at all means he's been very, very good. In order to win in regulation, he needs to only let in 1 goal on an average of 34 shots against. So basically seven times he's been statistically fantastic (and he's also been great in many of the losses, too). Not just last night.

• he is 10th in GAA
• 7th in save %

8th in GAA and 5th in SV% if you consider goalies who have played in 5 games or more, which is more normal. But I'm not sure why other goalies doing very well is any way to discredit Mike Smith. The people who he's discrediting weren't saying "I bet he's only the 10th best goalie in the league." They were saying he was awful and would crash and burn. Which, granted, he still might. But he's been way better than the general consensus predicted to this point.

when he is top 5 then we get this thread

I would say the argument, considering the play of his team, is certainly there to be made that he's been one of the top 5 goalies in the NHL to this point. Of all the guys with his numbers or better (none of these top 10 goalies right now are going to maintain these numbers, let's face it), he's played the most games to this point. His team has hung him out to dry in several games so far, and he's been his team's best player most nights. There's not much more you can ask from your goalie than what Mike Smith's given the Flames this year.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Last 6 seasons: .913 (league average .912 over same timeframe)

And this is probably the relevant stat, as goalies evolve throughout their careers (and 12 was his first year as the unquestionable #1).

Basically Smith posted league average stats for a bottom 5 team, not to mention his puck handling doesn't show in save %.

Nothing unimpressive with Smith in his time with the Coyotes. He helped the team to win games as much as you could reasonably ask from your goalie, and sometimes more.

It tells a lot about the Coyotes, that even though they consistently got good enough goaltending to win games, they still finished at the bottom year in year out.

 

[Bleedred]

Flames win the cup in 2004 with Mike Smith

WUT? Come on man, Kiprusoff had a .928 save percentage that playoffs. It's not even like Khabibulin (the cup winning starter) was that much better than him. Smith's 2012 playoffs was undoubtedly better than Kipper's in 2004, but it also was not indicative of Smith's larger body of work. That was a season long hot streak, better than anything we've ever seen from Mike Smith, either up to the point, or since that point. And it carried over into the playoffs.

no

they lose in 5 or 6 with smith

I don't know, Elliott was seriously like the Ducks best player in that series.

I could definitely see that going 7 games, even if Mike Smith just played like Mike Smith normally plays. Elliott played so poorly in that series, I don't understand how he had an .880 save percentage during it. Seems like it should have been more like lower .800's. Fleury's 2012 playoff series against the Flyers is the only thing that's come close to that in this decade.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

I think it’s pretty telling to see the team the Yotes have become without him... Looking at all the major additions and subtractions, goaltending is the biggest change.

Did anyalytics say Raanta > Smith? What’s his corsi?

Oh no question it's showing. With Smith in net they probably have like 4 wins already. They've played well enough to win some games if their goalie just had a big game, and that's what Smith often did.

I feel like it's too early to judge Raanta though, first game he made like 40 saves before letting one in last minute, game 2 against Vegas was just a bloodbath, he played well against Detroit until get got hurt again and now he just played his first game in a while. And being the starter for the first time, i think giving him time is fair.

 

[sparxx87]

Oh no question it's showing. With Smith in net they probably have like 4 wins already. They've played well enough to win some games if their goalie just had a big game, and that's what Smith often did.

I feel like it's too early to judge Raanta though, first game he made like 40 saves before letting one in last minute, game 2 against Vegas was just a bloodbath, he played well against Detroit until get got hurt again and now he just played his first game in a while. And being the starter for the first time, i think giving him time is fair.

Yeah, for sure.. It’s a different game when you’re ‘the guy’ so he’ll get some slack.

I only brought up Raanta because it seemed like an odd trade for a team who’re trying to move forward. Trading a top-10 pick for a top 6 centre, then your very good starting goalie and replacing him with an unproven one? It doesn’t make a lot of sense.

 

[McFlyingV]

It's cute seeing all the crusty Oiler fans come in this thread to **** on Smith when Talbot isn't carrying the team like he did last year and has fallen back to earth.

The salt.

The thing with Talbot is that he really didn't carry the team early last season, and rather had 2 mediocre to bad starts in the 2 seasons prior to this. It was after about 20-30 games both years where he found his consistency and consistently played like an elite goalie so this slow start from him is nothing out of the ordinary.

Smith has been good, but he's obviously not going to maintain a .936 sv% all year. I wouldn't be surprised though if he managed in the .920 range unless he starts to show inconsistency like he has in the past.

 

[blankall]

so he had one above average game and we get this thread?

• team is one game above 500 7-6
• Smith is 7w 5 lose
• he is 10th in GAA
• 7th in save %

when he is top 5 then we get this thread

LOL why does he need to be top 5 to be considered to be having a good season? Particularly when so many here predicted he would be another Elliott.

Smith looks like a bonafide starter right now. All Calgary needed from a goalie. Calgary's only main issue right now is secondary scoring.

 

[blankall]

And this is probably the relevant stat, as goalies evolve throughout their careers (and 12 was his first year as the unquestionable #1).

Basically Smith posted league average stats for a bottom 5 team, not to mention his puck handling doesn't show in save %.

Nothing unimpressive with Smith in his time with the Coyotes. He helped the team to win games as much as you could reasonably ask from your goalie, and sometimes more.

It tells a lot about the Coyotes, that even though they consistently got good enough goaltending to win games, they still finished at the bottom year in year out.

There's a reason why Smith, despite largely average numbers, was always considered for Team Canada. People who actually watch him play can see that he's a solid goalie. The question with his move to Calgary was whether he was too old. He's obviously still got something left in the tank.