Is Gretzky 1983-84 (during the 51-game point streak) the highest level any player will ever achieve?

[SwaggySpungo]

I knew about the streak, but I'm only now learning about the numbers he put up during those 51 games.

GP: 51 - G: 61 - A: 92 - P: 153

In 51 games, he scored 61 goals and 92 assists, for 153 points. An average of 3 points-per-game and on pace for 95 goals, 144 assists, and 239 points. This isn't a small sample either. This was nearly 2/3 of a season back then.

Gretzky went on to win the Rocket Richard by 31 goals (87 goals vs. 56 goals). Yes, I know the trophy didn't exist in 1984, but you get my point. And won the Art Ross by 79 points (205 vs. 126) and 2nd place was his teammate Paul Coffey. Guy got 205 points... and nobody else hit 130.

I don't think we've ever seen that level of play or that level of dominance from any athlete in any major North American sport for such an extended period of time and we may never see it again. I feel like that was probably the absolute ceiling, where arguably the greatest player ever was at his personal greatest.

Click to read more...

 

[Gambitman]

Add to that he had a streak from the previous season I think 8-9 games. I am reminded of a quote about Babe Ruth,

“Some 20 years ago, I stopped talking about the Babe for the simple reason that I realized that those who had never seen him didn't believe me.”
- Tommy Holmes (sportswriter).

I

 

[The Panther]

Yes, it's possible that Gretzky from autumn '83 to January '84 was at his very best ever, in terms of regular season performance.

Here's how the NHL stats looked after January 27th, 1984 (the last day of Gretzky's point streak, and one game prior to his going down to injury):

Goals
61 - Gretzky
40 - Vaive (He had 40 goals in 49 games...! Slumped a bit after this.)
39 - Kurri
38 - Goulet
38 - Bossy

Assists
92 - Gretzky
51 - Trottier
51 - Stastny
47 - Coffey
47 - Pederson

POINTS
153 - Gretzky
85 - Kurri
83 - Bossy
79 - Trottier
79 - Stastny

Even-Strength Points
101 - Gretzky
64 - Bossy
62 - Kurri
60 - Goulet
60 - Trottier

Plus / Minus
+71 Gretzky
+46 Bossy
+43 Goulet
+42 Trottier
+40 Coffey

Power-play points
35 - Gretzky
32 - Daoust (Yes, Dan Daoust of the Leafs!)
28 - Federko

Short-handed points
17 - Gretzky
7 - Messier
6 - Nilsson
6 - Carbonneau

Shots on Goal
217 - Gretzky
212 - Ogrodnick
199 - Bourque

Shooting Percentage (min. 40 games)
30.2 - Kurri
29.1 - Goring
28.1 - Gretzky
27.6 - Yzerman
26.8 - Goulet

Much of this damage was done in November 1983, which is almost certainly Gretzky's greatest-ever month in the NHL: In 14 games, he scored 17 goals and 49 points, while going +32.

Just as impressive was his team, Edmonton's, dominance in the League. Up to their 51st game of the season (a tie with New Jersey), Edmonton's record stood at:
38 - 8 - 5
which meant they were pacing for 127 points on the season. After Gretzky went out with a shoulder injury for six games, the Oilers went 1 - 5 - 0 without him (including the infamous 11 - 0 loss to Hartford).

How blasé was the hockey world becoming towards Gretzky's genius during this period? He scored 50 goals in 42 games and it didn't even merit headlines or any particular notice.

 

[Retire91]

I think when you measure Gretzky's performance against his peers he is so in a league of his own it's purely astonishing. So I would have to agree, those numbers show it. If this was nascar he has like 10 laps on every other car in the race. I don't think anyone else ever did it to quite this degree

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

See Lemieux 92-93

 

[abo9]

While not being able to see him play, I'm always impressed by Gretzky's numbers, by their sheer magnitude.

Doubters always bring up the "era" argument to diminish his accomplishments but the fact is... those numbers are well above any players of that particular era, not just above players today. I'm not stupid, I recognize that era plays a factor when comparing players from different timelines, but no players today win the Art Ross race by much

 

[McFlash97]

See Lemieux 92-93

153 in 51 blows 160 on 60 away.

Pacing for 180 in 60 games ...

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

153 in 51 blows 160 on 60 away.

Pacing for 180 in 60 games ...

Your just looking at raw numbers.

 

[The Panther]

Your just looking at raw numbers.

You're right, we need some more context:

Gretzky '84 vs. Lemieux '93 after 60 games played:
Goals
76 - Gretzky
69 - Lemieux

Non-PP points
135 - Gretzky
105 - Lemieux

Plus/Minus
+74 Gretzky
+55 Lemieux

Players' top goal-totals besides Wayne/Mario:
1984: 56, 54, 54
1993: 76, 76, 63

Number of 100-point scorers per season:
1984: 12
1993: 21

 

[Nathaniel Skywalker]

You're right, we need some more context:

Gretzky '84 vs. Lemieux '93 after 60 games played:
Goals
76 - Gretzky
69 - Lemieux

Non-PP points
135 - Gretzky
105 - Lemieux

Plus/Minus
+74 Gretzky
+55 Lemieux

Players' top goal-totals besides Wayne/Mario:
1984: 56, 54, 54
1993: 76, 76, 63

Number of 100-point scorers per season:
1984: 12
1993: 21

Far superior league with superior talent. International talent. Now compare league wide gpg, not to mention the superior goaltending. Goaltending equipment etc

 

[koyvoo]

 

[Regal]

Far superior league with superior talent. International talent. Now compare league wide gpg, not to mention the superior goaltending. Goaltending equipment etc

League wide GPG was only .31 higher per team, and the Pens also had 112 more PP opportunities in '93 than the Oilers in '84. Much of the scoring difference was the ES scoring of lower lines.

 

[Pominville Knows]

It seem probable, but the forever part you just have to object to. Scoring levels is one thing, but it would be odd to say its the best forever not the least becouse we have seen i guess a handful of other peaks that was not miles away.

 

[frisco]

Lemieux in 89-90 made it to 46 games and was only stopped by a severe back injury. That being said, other than Mario I don't think anyone would've/will touch the 51-game streak going forward.

My Best-Carey

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Far superior league with superior talent. International talent. Now compare league wide gpg, not to mention the superior goaltending. Goaltending equipment etc

Let's not exaggerate the change in the composition of the league between 1984 and 1993. Both seasons had two Europeans in the top ten in scoring. 1993 had four Europeans in the top thirty, compared to three in 1984. They were all so far behind Gretzky/Lemieux that it isn't a meaningful difference.

Every single Norris trophy vote in 1984 went to a Canadian or American blueliner. The same is true for 1993, except a single third-place vote went to Ulf Samuelsson (who didn't play against Lemieux, as they were teammates).

For the Selke - I count one European in the top ten in both seasons (Kurri 3rd in 1984, Fedorov 4th in 1993).

For the Vezina - zero European goalies got votes in 1984. In 1993, the same is true. The best European goalie that year (based on accomplishments, not name - so not Hasek) was probably Tommy Soderstrom, who played 40 games at around 3% above the league average. (And he didn't do much to slow down Lemieux - who scored 12 points in 3 games against him).

Besides, 1993 featured more 100 point seasons (21 vs 12), more 120 point seasons (10 vs 3), more 50 goal seasons (14 vs 8), more 60 goal seasons (5 vs just Gretzky), and more 80 assist seasons (6 vs Gretzky and teammate).

 

[2xJack]

Let's not exaggerate the change in the composition of the league between 1984 and 1993. Both seasons had two Europeans in the top ten in scoring. 1993 had four Europeans in the top thirty, compared to three in 1984. They were all so far behind Gretzky/Lemieux that it isn't a meaningful difference.

Every single Norris trophy vote in 1984 went to a Canadian or American blueliner. The same is true for 1993, except a single third-place vote went to Ulf Samuelsson (who didn't play against Lemieux, as they were teammates).

For the Selke - I count one European in the top ten in both seasons (Kurri 3rd in 1984, Fedorov 4th in 1993).

For the Vezina - zero European goalies got votes in 1984. In 1993, the same is true. The best European goalie that year (based on accomplishments, not name - so not Hasek) was probably Tommy Soderstrom, who played 40 games at around 3% above the league average. (And he didn't do much to slow down Lemieux - who scored 12 points in 3 games against him).

Besides, 1993 featured more 100 point seasons (21 vs 12), more 120 point seasons (10 vs 3), more 50 goal seasons (14 vs 8), more 60 goal seasons (5 vs just Gretzky), and more 80 assist seasons (6 vs Gretzky and teammate).

This is only measuring the cream of the crop. It's a flawed analysis. If you want to gauge the depth of the European invasion and the overall impact on the level of play you need to look at the total percentage of players that were born in NA vs Europe. Between 1984 and 1993 there was even a huge change in the percentage of American players in the NHL.

1983-84 Season
Canadian - 78.8%
American - 12.9%
Other - 8.3%

1992-93 Season
Canadian - 66.6%
American - 18.2%
Other - 15.2%

There is no denying the level of play had picked up with the infusion of talent from a more diverse player pool. That trend has continued. Canadians presently only make up about 43% of NHL players. It is not your imagination. There are more fast skaters in the NHL now than there were decades ago. This process started gradually in the 1970s and really picked up steam at the end of the 80s and early 90s.

 

[Regal]

This is only measuring the cream of the crop. It's a flawed analysis. If you want to gauge the depth of the European invasion and the overall impact on the level of play you need to look at the total percentage of players that were born in NA vs Europe. Between 1984 and 1993 there was even a huge change in the percentage of American players in the NHL.

1983-84 Season
Canadian - 78.8%
American - 12.9%
Other - 8.3%

1992-93 Season
Canadian - 66.6%
American - 18.2%
Other - 15.2%

There is no denying the level of play had picked up with the infusion of talent from a more diverse player pool. That trend has continued. Canadians presently only make up about 43% of NHL players. It is not your imagination. There are more fast skaters in the NHL now than there were decades ago. This process started gradually in the 1970s and really picked up steam at the end of the 80s and early 90s.

Is a roughly 10% difference in player nationality really great enough to significantly change the league?

 

[blogofmike]

This is only measuring the cream of the crop. It's a flawed analysis. If you want to gauge the depth of the European invasion and the overall impact on the level of play you need to look at the total percentage of players that were born in NA vs Europe. Between 1984 and 1993 there was even a huge change in the percentage of American players in the NHL.

1983-84 Season
Canadian - 78.8%
American - 12.9%
Other - 8.3%

1992-93 Season
Canadian - 66.6%
American - 18.2%
Other - 15.2%

There is no denying the level of play had picked up with the infusion of talent from a more diverse player pool. That trend has continued. Canadians presently only make up about 43% of NHL players. It is not your imagination. There are more fast skaters in the NHL now than there were decades ago. This process started gradually in the 1970s and really picked up steam at the end of the 80s and early 90s.

The evidence is against you. HO is right.

If you think European third line wingers and 4-5 defenders were making things hard on top scorers, you've forgotten that it's 92-93 you're talking about.

Career highs for almost anybody who stays healthy.

Most 50 goal scorers ever.

Most 100 point scorers ever.

Regardless of national origin of the depth players, nothing in 92-93 was doing much to stop offensive stars from lighting it up. It was the biggest field day for top scorers in modern NHL history.

 

[Black Gold Extractor]

League wide GPG was only .31 higher per team, and the Pens also had 112 more PP opportunities in '93 than the Oilers in '84. Much of the scoring difference was the ES scoring of lower lines.

This is exactly it. From here, the median points for each line is:

Season	1st line PTS	2nd line PTS	3rd line PTS	4th line PTS
1981-82	86.0	57.0	39.0	22.0
1982-83	79.0	54.0	37.0	21.0
1983-84	83.0	54.0	36.0	21.0
1984-85	81.0	54.0	35.0	22.0
1985-86	78.0	56.0	38.0	23.0
1986-87	75.0	51.0	36.0	20.0
1987-88	79.0	51.0	30.0	19.0
1988-89	81.0	51.0	35.0	17.0
1989-90	80.0	50.0	32.0	18.0
1990-91	71.0	45.0	30.0	17.0
1991-92	76.5	47.0	29.5	17.0
1992-93	86.5	51.0	30.0	18.0
1993-94	75.0	45.0	29.0	16.5
1994-95	40.0	25.0	16.0	9.0
1995-96	72.5	45.0	27.0	15.0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Up until 1990-91, the median first-liner would be the 32nd highest-scoring forward (21 teams). In 1992-93, it would be the average of the 36th and 37th highest-scoring forwards (24 teams), so league expansion and the gradual influx of Europeans is accounted for.

The following graph demonstrates the relative change in median forward line scoring relative to 1981-82 to 1992-93:

Back on topic, Gretzky's November 1983 is incredible. In that vein, I'd suggest that Howie Morenz's January 1928 is a contender. In a 10-game stretch, Morenz put up 13 goals and 6 assists for 19 points. The next-closest people in that month with the same number of games were linemate Art Gagne and Frank Finnegan, each with 10 points in 10 games.

 

[MadLuke]

. There are more fast skaters in the NHL now than there were decades ago.

Probably but they were spread over 24 teams instead of 21 teams.

24*20*.66 = 317 Canadians playing
21*20*78.8 =331 Canadians playing

That is not that less Canadian in the NHL

According to nhl.com
83-84: 439 Canadian skaters played 5 games or more
92-93: 416 of them.

Removing 5% of Canadian player's should raise the level obviously but not necessarily that much.

The important difference between those season if referee, 92-93 had 5.28 ppo in average, that in the top 3 of all time.

Take 2005-2006, was the league with that much less fast skater than in 2003-2004 and at a lower level ? Yet it was 20% higher scoring a lot of them by the .33 power play goal added a game.

By changing the number of power play and how you apply rules, you can create higher scoring environment even in a better league and vice-versa. A bit like having 4x4 or 3x3 overtime, the league just added goal without removing any talents from it.

 

[2xJack]

The evidence is against you. HO is right.

If you think European third line wingers and 4-5 defenders were making things hard on top scorers, you've forgotten that it's 92-93 you're talking about.

Career highs for almost anybody who stays healthy.

Most 50 goal scorers ever.

Most 100 point scorers ever.

Regardless of national origin of the depth players, nothing in 92-93 was doing much to stop offensive stars from lighting it up. It was the biggest field day for top scorers in modern NHL history.

Sorry, the evidence is actually with me. You've picked an arbitrary number, 50 goals. Let's pick another, let's try 40 goals. How many players scored 40 in 83-84? 24. Were there way more in 92-93? No, try only 25. Exactly 1 more. Not the huge difference or "field day" you claim it to be.

So we've got two seasons with a high offensive output. How can we tell which is more real and which is more a fluke or from lesser competition? Let's see how many of those 40+ goal scorers are in the HHoF. Of the 24 who scored 40+ in 83-84 there are 11 HHoF members, for 45.8%. Of the 25 who scored 40+ in 92-93 there are 16 in the HHoF, or 64% of them.

The 50 goal scorers further reinforce this concept. Of the 8 players who scored 50+ in 83-84 there are 5 HHoF members, 62.5%. 10 out of 14 who scored 50+ in 92-93 are HHoF members, 71.4%.

So maybe there were more 40 and 50 goal scorers in 92-93 because.... there was an above average amount of all time great players in the league.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

There are two separate, possibly related, concepts here.

The first issue - was is it easier for a top scorer to rack up big totals in 1984, or 1993? The evidence has already been presented, and it's very clear - it was easier in 1993.

The second issue - was the league more European in 1993 to 1984? I agree that, overall, yes it was. It's not clear to me that going from 8% to 15% Europeans is all that significant (it's the difference of 1.5 players on a 20 team roster) - but it's a true statement.

But my point was - I don't really care how many backup goaltenders, second line forwards, or third pair defensemen were Europeans. Lemieux was generally facing the best players in the league - and the composition of the league was virtually identical in 1984 and 1993. Just because some of the Penguins depth players faced one or two more European depth skaters, how does that impact Lemieux's domination of the league (relative to Gretzky)? Someone like Lemieux really has no peers; but insofar as we're doing a comparison, we're comparing him to the best players in the league - and those players were no more Europeans than Gretzky's peers a decade earlier.

 

[The Panther]

There were Russians in the NHL in 1992-93, which there weren't in 1983-84, sure. But...
1) Only two Russians made it into the NHL top-35 scoring in 1992-93.
2) There were 21 teams in 1984 and 24 teams in 1993.

Was these two Russians in the top-35 scorers (Bure & Mogilny, btw) really making the League a higher quality when there were also 70+ more full-time NHL jobs available in '93 than in '84? Both Ottawa and San Jose in '93 were giving up just as many goals-against as Pittsburgh and Toronto in '84. There were five teams below .400 in '93, and four in '84.

I think there were three Europeans in the top-30 scorers in 1984 and five or six in 1993, which is basically the Russian addition. But it's not like any of these Russians were remotely challenging '84 Gretzky in overall performance. (Let's not forget that when Bure went up against post-prime Gretzky in the '93 playoffs, Gretzky completely destroyed him.)

 

[Hockey Outsider]

For the argument that scoring was higher in 1993 than 1984 because the players were better, as measured by the number of Hall of Famers:

In 1984, I count 45 Hall of Famer skaters who played at least one game. If we limit that to 60 games, there were 40. Plus three HOF goalies.

In 1993, I count 49 Hall of Famer skaters (including Jagr) who played at least one game. If we limit that to 60 games, there were 43 (again including Jagr). Plus four HOF goalies.

I don't think the "let's count the number of HOFers" is that great of an argument. For one thing, it doesn't take into account a player's actual level of performance. For example, I don't really care that 1984 featured Clarke Gillies' dreadful 28 points in 76 games. I probably do care that this excludes, say, Barry Pederson's brief but excellent peak.

Anyway, even if we take this metric at face value, there are roughly the same number of HOF players in the NHL in both seasons. (Remember that the league was three teams larger in 1993 - so on a per-team basis, the number of HOF players actually decreased).

 

[blogofmike]

Sorry, the evidence is actually with me. You've picked an arbitrary number, 50 goals. Let's pick another, let's try 40 goals. How many players scored 40 in 83-84? 24. Were there way more in 92-93? No, try only 25. Exactly 1 more. Not the huge difference or "field day" you claim it to be.

So we've got two seasons with a high offensive output. How can we tell which is more real and which is more a fluke or from lesser competition? Let's see how many of those 40+ goal scorers are in the HHoF. Of the 24 who scored 40+ in 83-84 there are 11 HHoF members, for 45.8%. Of the 25 who scored 40+ in 92-93 there are 16 in the HHoF, or 64% of them.

The 50 goal scorers further reinforce this concept. Of the 8 players who scored 50+ in 83-84 there are 5 HHoF members, 62.5%. 10 out of 14 who scored 50+ in 92-93 are HHoF members, 71.4%.

So maybe there were more 40 and 50 goal scorers in 92-93 because.... there was an above average amount of all time great players in the league.

HO addressed the HHOF point.

1992-93 was the easiest season to score big totals. 50 goals isn't random, it's a pretty common NHL benchmark. But by just about any benchmark, 1992-93 has the most. I mean TEN 120-point scorers? TEN!?!

As for the talent surge of "fast skaters," why were there so many older skaters surviving into 1992-93? More 35 year olds, more 33 year olds, more 30 year olds. The 1984 guys seemed to survive better into 1993 than the 1975 guys did into 1984. If there was a surge of talented young legs displacing older players, it came closer to 1984 than 1993.