Is Gretzky 1983-84 (during the 51-game point streak) the highest level any player will ever achieve?

blogofmike

Registered User
Dec 16, 2010
2,178
926
Gretzky just didn't age well after 30. Plus the back issues didn't help him through the 90s. Back then, generally players did fade after 30, they last longer today. Probably due to better nutrition and far and away better workout regimes.

He aged abruptly after 1991

ES Goals​
ES Points​
1980​
37​
100​
1981​
36​
104​
1982​
68​
147​
1983​
47​
132​
1984​
55​
135​
1985​
54​
146​
1986​
38​
143​
1987​
42​
124​
1988​
26​
91​
1989​
38​
100​
1990​
26​
96​
1991​
33​
103​
1992​
17​
63​
1993​
14​
38​
1994​
20​
62​
1995​
8​
23​
1996​
16​
54​
1997​
19​
65​
1998​
17​
60​
1999​
6​
32​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There was no fade. This was not a gradual decline. It was a steep drop after the Suter hit. And 33 ES goals doesn't sound like a lot, but he was 4th in the league at ES goal scoring and 2 back of 2nd place in 1991. All of a sudden his ES scoring plummets and the man who was never below a 100 ES point pace can barely pass 60.

But even in 1991, he probably could have hit 50 overall if it wan't for the absurd 8-51-59 split on the powerplay. Gretzky was the virtual equal of the best goal scorers in the league at even strength (except peak Brett Hull), but he passed up opportunities because he was putting up insane PP assist totals. (51 PP assists is 3rd most all time, behind Lemieux 88 and Coffey 89. Gretzky's team was 109 PP opportunities behind Lemieux's 88 Pens, yet Gretzky 91 was only 7 assists back of the record).

Wayne Gretzky was still an All Star calibre goal scorer thru 1991. His ES goal totals were on par with everyone but peak Brett Hull. Of the 3-way tie for 2nd place, Gretzky was 2 ES goals back of 51 goal Theo Fleury, tied with 51 goal Yzerman at ES, and 4 ES goals ahead of 51 goal Cam Neely.

Yet despite the fact he was still a good ES goal scorer, Gretzky from 1988-1991 (first year after he last led in goals thru last year pre-back injury), Gretzky's splits were a lopsided 38-163-201 on the powerplay. (For reference, d-man Al MacInnis posted a more goal heavy 46-162-208 on the PP.) In this span Gretzky has 175 total goals. He is 5th in ES goals. He barely makes the top 50 in PP goals.

Are we to believe that the guy who was scoring harder ES goals was bad at scoring easier PP goals? Isn't it more likely that he passed up shots on the PP to feed his teammates considering he was the top PP assist guy in the NHL over this span?
 
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MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
9,409
5,066
Back then, generally players did fade after 30, they last longer today.

Would be interesting to see how much that is the case for the star type players, many player did faded hard in their early 30s today or even before that, from Penner/Lucic/Mike Richards and so many that didn't finish their long term contract, while many of Gretzky era Messier, Bourque, Gartner, Carbonneau, Murphy, Francis, Chelios, MacInnis, Andreychuck, Stevens, Gilmour, Verbeek, Yzerman, Lemieux, Robitaille, Hull, Roberts, Roy, Lemieux, aged quite well.

That 2003 draft for example have that crop around 35:
2003 NHL Entry Draft | Hockey-Reference.com

Making ore them old enough to differentiate those who aged well after 30 from who it was more difficult.

Was not necessarily easy to age after 30 for the Staal, Brown, Seabrook, Eriksson Phaneuf, Carter, Perry, Vanek, Parise, Kesler, Richards, Horton, Kostitsyn vs Fleury, Bergeron, Burns, Suter, Pavelski, Getzlaf. That drafted started with a boom, maybe not representing of the usual, but I imagine elite player often play a lot of games before 30, it just happen that we got a bunch in a single draft.

Could look for drafted between 2000 and 2004 survival rate of good player;s for their season between 30 to 35 year's old type of drop versus the 1978 to 1984 or so, the salary cap didn't make it easy for them either in a way.
 

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
19,110
15,573
Tokyo, Japan
He aged abruptly after 1991

ES Goals​
ES Points​
1980​
37​
100​
1981​
36​
104​
1982​
68​
147​
1983​
47​
132​
1984​
55​
135​
1985​
54​
146​
1986​
38​
143​
1987​
42​
124​
1988​
26​
91​
1989​
38​
100​
1990​
26​
96​
1991​
33​
103​
1992​
17​
63​
1993​
14​
38​
1994​
20​
62​
1995​
8​
23​
1996​
16​
54​
1997​
19​
65​
1998​
17​
60​
1999​
6​
32​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
There was no fade. This was not a gradual decline. It was a steep drop after the Suter hit. And 33 ES goals doesn't sound like a lot, but he was 4th in the league at ES goal scoring and 2 back of 2nd place in 1991. All of a sudden his ES scoring plummets and the man who was never below a 100 ES point pace can barely pass 60.

But even in 1991, he probably could have hit 50 overall if it wan't for the absurd 8-51-59 split on the powerplay. Gretzky was the virtual equal of the best goal scorers in the league at even strength (except peak Brett Hull), but he passed up opportunities because he was putting up insane PP assist totals. (51 PP assists is 3rd most all time, behind Lemieux 88 and Coffey 89. Gretzky's team was 109 PP opportunities behind Lemieux's 88 Pens, yet Gretzky 91 was only 7 assists back of the record).

Wayne Gretzky was still an All Star calibre goal scorer thru 1991. His ES goal totals were on par with everyone but peak Brett Hull. Of the 3-way tie for 2nd place, Gretzky was 2 ES goals back of 51 goal Theo Fleury, tied with 51 goal Yzerman at ES, and 4 ES goals ahead of 51 goal Cam Neely.

Yet despite the fact he was still a good ES goal scorer, Gretzky from 1988-1991 (first year after he last led in goals thru last year pre-back injury), Gretzky's splits were a lopsided 38-163-201 on the powerplay. (For reference, d-man Al MacInnis posted a more goal heavy 46-162-208 on the PP.) In this span Gretzky has 175 total goals. He is 5th in ES goals. He barely makes the top 50 in PP goals.

Are we to believe that the guy who was scoring harder ES goals was bad at scoring easier PP goals? Isn't it more likely that he passed up shots on the PP to feed his teammates considering he was the top PP assist guy in the NHL over this span?
Nice post, and I agree with all 100%.

My point (above) was merely to say that it's a bit too strong to say Gretzky 'aged badly' after 1991 when he was still winning scoring titles up to 1994. But yes, he was never remotely the same after September 1991.
 

blogofmike

Registered User
Dec 16, 2010
2,178
926
Nice post, and I agree with all 100%.

My point (above) was merely to say that it's a bit too strong to say Gretzky 'aged badly' after 1991 when he was still winning scoring titles up to 1994. But yes, he was never remotely the same after September 1991.

He aged badly only by his own standards. Leading the NHL in assists 4 of 8 years only sucks if you're coming off leading 12 of 12.

60 ES points was still a good total for an all star player. Gretzky was 4 ES points back of Jagr in 1998 on a Rangers team with little offensive support. (A year after winning the Norris, Leetch then went to the Charles Huddy School of Defensive Positioning. He had 16 ES points. Gretzky had 17 ES goals.)

As a goal scorer he became average after Canada Cup 91, and the PPG-PPA splits remained lopsided. From 92-98 he is a better ES goal scorer than similar playmaker types like Oates and Francis. But even compared to them he has lopsided PP splits. 47-222-269 is more PP points than anyone. But he had fewer PP goals than even Francis or Oates. Or Bourque or Leetch or MacInnis.
 

HurricaneFanatic

Registered User
Jan 16, 2020
694
551
He aged abruptly after 1991

ES Goals​
ES Points​
1980​
37​
100​
1981​
36​
104​
1982​
68​
147​
1983​
47​
132​
1984​
55​
135​
1985​
54​
146​
1986​
38​
143​
1987​
42​
124​
1988​
26​
91​
1989​
38​
100​
1990​
26​
96​
1991​
33​
103​
1992​
17​
63​
1993​
14​
38​
1994​
20​
62​
1995​
8​
23​
1996​
16​
54​
1997​
19​
65​
1998​
17​
60​
1999​
6​
32​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
There was no fade. This was not a gradual decline. It was a steep drop after the Suter hit. And 33 ES goals doesn't sound like a lot, but he was 4th in the league at ES goal scoring and 2 back of 2nd place in 1991. All of a sudden his ES scoring plummets and the man who was never below a 100 ES point pace can barely pass 60.

But even in 1991, he probably could have hit 50 overall if it wan't for the absurd 8-51-59 split on the powerplay. Gretzky was the virtual equal of the best goal scorers in the league at even strength (except peak Brett Hull), but he passed up opportunities because he was putting up insane PP assist totals. (51 PP assists is 3rd most all time, behind Lemieux 88 and Coffey 89. Gretzky's team was 109 PP opportunities behind Lemieux's 88 Pens, yet Gretzky 91 was only 7 assists back of the record).

Wayne Gretzky was still an All Star calibre goal scorer thru 1991. His ES goal totals were on par with everyone but peak Brett Hull. Of the 3-way tie for 2nd place, Gretzky was 2 ES goals back of 51 goal Theo Fleury, tied with 51 goal Yzerman at ES, and 4 ES goals ahead of 51 goal Cam Neely.

Yet despite the fact he was still a good ES goal scorer, Gretzky from 1988-1991 (first year after he last led in goals thru last year pre-back injury), Gretzky's splits were a lopsided 38-163-201 on the powerplay. (For reference, d-man Al MacInnis posted a more goal heavy 46-162-208 on the PP.) In this span Gretzky has 175 total goals. He is 5th in ES goals. He barely makes the top 50 in PP goals.

Are we to believe that the guy who was scoring harder ES goals was bad at scoring easier PP goals? Isn't it more likely that he passed up shots on the PP to feed his teammates considering he was the top PP assist guy in the NHL over this span?

Gretzky always down played his injuries, but anyone with sense know the injuries in 1990 and beyond lessened his career. Had he never gotten injured we would never be talking about Ovi catching him.
 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
35,133
6,428
Gretzky's no-look pass to Kurri in the 1983 playoffs is the greatest pass I have ever seen. He had 15 MORE points than anyone else in that 16-game postseason. Insane.

In the 1985 playoffs Gretzky no-look passed to Coffey, Wayne finishing with an unparalleled sick 47 playoff points. NO ONE WILL EVER TOUCH THAT.

Of course, Gretzky went on to set unbroken playoff records in 1987 (6 assists in one playoff game) and 1988 (most ever in the Stanley Cup Finals: 10 assists record and 13 points record). And yet Sather THEN traded him. Trade the greatest player ever at his peak? And only get one more cup (mostly by nontraded assets followed by mediocrity). Imagine if he had stayed in Edmonton. ... i know, i know... league expanded interest in California and America blah blah.f.blah.
 
Last edited:

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
19,110
15,573
Tokyo, Japan
Gretzky's no-look pass to Kurri in the 1983 playoffs is the greatest pass I have ever seen. He had 15 MORE points than anyone else in that 16-game postseason. Insane.
Before the Finals vs. The Islanders, Wayne had 34 points in 12 games.
Wayne finishing with an unparalleled sick 47 playoff points.
And that was in only 18 games, and he went +27.
And yet Sather THEN traded him.
Sather didn't trade him. Sather, in Bruce McNall's words, "wanted no part of this trade".
 

VanIslander

A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Sep 4, 2004
35,133
6,428
Sather didn't trade him. Sather, in Bruce McNall's words, "wanted no part of this trade".
Er. Yes and no.

Given how cold hardball Sather played Coffey and how he accepted things thereafter, Sather was the target of a LOT of media speculation. I was in college at the time and recall Sather the frontman for this.
 

Nathaniel

Registered User
Oct 18, 2013
13,603
4,969
Gretzky's no-look pass to Kurri in the 1983 playoffs is the greatest pass I have ever seen. He had 15 MORE points than anyone else in that 16-game postseason. Insane.

In the 1985 playoffs Gretzky no-look passed to Coffey, Wayne finishing with an unparalleled sick 47 playoff points. NO ONE WILL EVER TOUCH THAT.

Of course, Gretzky went on to set unbroken playoff records in 1987 (6 assists in one playoff game) and 1988 (most ever in the Stanley Cup Finals: 10 assists record and 13 points record). And yet Sather THEN traded him. Trade the greatest player ever at his peak? And only get one more cup (mostly by nontraded assets followed by mediocrity). Imagine if he had stayed in Edmonton. ... i know, i know... league expanded interest in California and America blah blah.f.blah.
And then the best player ever at his peak was decimated in the scoring race the next season by 31 points
 

Nathaniel

Registered User
Oct 18, 2013
13,603
4,969
So?

He was 28 and had played 700 regular season and 120 playoff games, that's a lot of miles on his body.

You don't really seem to be here for a discussion
Because there’s this narrative that the supposed best player ever was out of his prime at 27-28 years old. He played 60% of the 88-89 season as a 27 year old.
 

Black Gold Extractor

Registered User
May 4, 2010
3,049
4,803
"Prime" is a loosely-defined term. Certainly, it's not inconceivable for a player to decline in their late-20's.

Here are the adjusted points per game (data from Hockey-Reference.com, methodology here) for two real-life players from ages 23 through 31 relative to their respective best season (set to 1).

oiitNRF.png


AgePlayer 1 Rel. Adj. PTS/GPPlayer 2 Rel. Adj. PTS/GP
230.931.00
241.000.94
250.920.97
260.780.89
270.650.88
280.640.81
290.700.75
300.600.85
310.680.66
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
They both peaked from ages 23 through 25. Player 1 takes a tumble at age 26 and another at age 27, maintaining that new level for a while, while player 2 gradually drops to the roughly same relative level (with the exception of a last hurrah at age 30). Guess who?

Spoiler-y data follows:

AgePlayer 1 Adj. GPPlayer 1 Adj. PTSPlayer 2 Adj. GPPlayer 2 Adj. PTSPlayer 1 Adj. PTS/GPPlayer 2 Adj. PTS/GP
1881991.222
1979122811171.5441.444
205378821271.4721.549
2177106821561.3771.902
2281117821591.4441.939
234171761631.7322.145
242241821661.8642.024
2562106821701.7102.073
2680116811551.4501.914
277793661241.2081.879
288096801391.2001.738
297598751201.3071.600
308291801461.1101.825
3179100761081.2661.421
3244521.182
33791191.506
3482831.012
3580971.213
36821011.232
37821031.256
3870701.000
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
AgePlayer 1 Rel. Adj. PTS/GPPlayer 2 Rel. Adj. PTS/GP
180.66
190.830.67
200.790.72
210.740.89
220.770.90
230.931.00
241.000.94
250.920.97
260.780.89
270.650.88
280.640.81
290.700.75
300.600.85
310.680.66
320.55
330.70
340.47
350.57
360.57
370.59
380.47
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
In case there's any doubt, player 1 is Sidney Crosby, and player 2 is Wayne Gretzky. It is worth noting that the relative drop-off for Gretzky at age 25 isn't that different from his drop-off at age 28. His biggest drop-off, of course, comes after the Suter hit... but honestly, ignoring that bump in 1990-91, it's looks suspiciously like a gradual linear decline... (Of course, ES numbers tell a different tale... plus the usual caveats apply to "adjusted stats".)

Back on-topic, even using the most basic of adjustment methods (goals per game ratio), Gretzky's 175 in 60 translates to 161 in 60 in 1992-93 (175 x 7.25 / 7.89)...
 

blogofmike

Registered User
Dec 16, 2010
2,178
926
Because there’s this narrative that the supposed best player ever was out of his prime at 27-28 years old. He played 60% of the 88-89 season as a 27 year old.

Most superstar scorers peak around 23-25.

But here is an exercise.

Rank Wayne Gretzky's seasons from best to worst. If you think his 88-89 season is in his top 6, you are very wrong.

So he was outscored in his 7th-11th best season, despite virtually tying the Art Ross winner at even strength with a team that was 4th worst the year before, and only getting blown away by PP points by guy who's on a team that was the Wayne Gretzky of powerplay opportunities.

In Lemieux's 5th best year, he lost the scoring race by 74 points. He lost the point race to Gretzky's assist totals despite the Penguins leading the NHL in PP chances and the Oilers finishing last. Gretzky's 143 even strength points was more than Lemieux scored total points. If Gretzky took a break and went on a season ending cruise at the all star break, he'd have won the Art Ross over one of Lemieux's top 5 seasons.
 

Nathaniel

Registered User
Oct 18, 2013
13,603
4,969
Most superstar scorers peak around 23-25.

But here is an exercise.

Rank Wayne Gretzky's seasons from best to worst. If you think his 88-89 season is in his top 6, you are very wrong.

So he was outscored in his 7th-11th best season, despite virtually tying the Art Ross winner at even strength with a team that was 4th worst the year before, and only getting blown away by PP points by guy who's on a team that was the Wayne Gretzky of powerplay opportunities.

In Lemieux's 5th best year, he lost the scoring race by 74 points. He lost the point race to Gretzky's assist totals despite the Penguins leading the NHL in PP chances and the Oilers finishing last. Gretzky's 143 even strength points was more than Lemieux scored total points. If Gretzky took a break and went on a season ending cruise at the all star break, he'd have won the Art Ross over one of Lemieux's top 5 seasons.
Higher scoring season
 

The Panther

Registered User
Mar 25, 2014
19,110
15,573
Tokyo, Japan
ES Goals​
ES Points​
1980​
37​
100​
1981​
36​
104​
1982​
68​
147​
1983​
47​
132​
1984​
55​
135​
1985​
54​
146​
1986​
38​
143​
1987​
42​
124​
1988​
26​
91​
1989​
38​
100​
1990​
26​
96​
1991​
33​
103​
1992​
17​
63​
1993​
14​
38​
1994​
20​
62​
1995​
8​
23​
1996​
16​
54​
1997​
19​
65​
1998​
17​
60​
1999​
6​
32​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
I thought this was really interesting (if off-topic) about Gretzky's ES goals. (I also think we should consider his SH goals, which in his heyday was a big part of his production, too.) We often read about his ES points, but not his goals in isolation. Indeed, it does point to his goal-production being better after 1989 or so than is commonly thought... at least if you accept the theory put forward that he certainly could have scored more goals on the PP than he did, as he was consistently putting up huge assists on it and had no problem scoring ES goals (which seems a logical theory -- if you can score goals at ES, you can score goals on the PP).

Anyway, I attempted to revise blogofmike's chart a bit to focus strictly on goals. And then to combine ES goals and SH goals. And then to compare this total to (what I guess is) the NHL leader (correct me if I made any mistakes) and to show how Gretzky ranked:

YearGretzky ES + SH Goals = NHL rankNHL ES + SH Goals Leader
198038 = 5th45 (Leach)
198140 = 1st40 (Babych, Bossy, Gretzky)
198274 = 1st74 (Gretzky)
198353 = 1st53 (Gretzky)
198467 = 1st (pacing for 72 in full season)67 (Gretzky)
198565 = 1st65 (Gretzky)
198641 = 2nd52 (Kurri)
198749 = 1st49 (Gretzky)
198831 = 10th (pacing for 39 in full season)48 (Lemieux)
198943 = 4th54 (Lemieux)
199030 = 13th (pacing for 33 in full season)46 (Yzerman)
199133 = 6th57 (Hull)
199219 = ? (pacing for 21 in full season)50 (Hull)
199316 = ? (pacing for 30 in full season)53 (Lemieux)
199424 = 29th43 (Fedorov)
19958 = ?24 (Jagr)
199617 = ?45 (Mogilny)
199719 = ?43 (Tkachuk)
199817 = 39th42 (Selanne)
19996 = ?34 (Jagr)
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Some of these look higher if you focus on only ES goals (i.e., not SH). As BlogOfMike mentioned, Wayne was 4th in ES goals in 1991 (and one away from third, which was Robitaille, whom Wayne set up for several of his), but anyway I think this is an interesting way to look at his goal-scoring. It certainly seems to be a thing that Gretzky did not make any undue effort to score goals on the PP. I mean, look at 1985, where he scores 73 goals and only 8 are on the PP....!!? Like, how is that even possible?

It's a bit odd in a way, though, because you'd think Gretzky, in later career, would have borne-down to get more of his goals on the PP, which presumably would have been easier than scoring them at ES.
 
Last edited:
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Albatros

Registered User
Aug 19, 2017
12,274
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Ostsee
Maybe related to the generally poor level of the NHL in the 1980s. The league is much better now, and so are individual players.
 

Pominville Knows

Registered User
Sep 28, 2012
4,477
333
Down Under
Most superstar scorers peak around 23-25.

But here is an exercise.

Rank Wayne Gretzky's seasons from best to worst. If you think his 88-89 season is in his top 6, you are very wrong.

So he was outscored in his 7th-11th best season, despite virtually tying the Art Ross winner at even strength with a team that was 4th worst the year before, and only getting blown away by PP points by guy who's on a team that was the Wayne Gretzky of powerplay opportunities.

In Lemieux's 5th best year, he lost the scoring race by 74 points. He lost the point race to Gretzky's assist totals despite the Penguins leading the NHL in PP chances and the Oilers finishing last. Gretzky's 143 even strength points was more than Lemieux scored total points. If Gretzky took a break and went on a season ending cruise at the all star break, he'd have won the Art Ross over one of Lemieux's top 5 seasons.
'Fifth best season', come on now. I understand what you rely on, but this is Lemieux so this season more surely is his "fifth" best season.
 

blogofmike

Registered User
Dec 16, 2010
2,178
926
'Fifth best season', come on now. I understand what you rely on, but this is Lemieux so this season more surely is his "fifth" best season.

I don't know if you're saying it is or isn't?

If compared to the partial years where he was nearing 2.1 PPG, Mario was close to that at 1.9 PPG through 59-64 games of 85-86. Then Lemieux actually finished the season, with his scoring rate dropping through the usual attrition. As it did in 1988-89, when Lemieux outscored his 92-93 pace through 60 games, then declined. As Gretzky's pace did when he went from 3 PPG in the season in question. down to 2.77 over 74 games.

Scoring an actual 141 in 79 actual games, is better then scoring 121 in 64, and then imagining the 150-point season he would have been on pace for.
 

Pominville Knows

Registered User
Sep 28, 2012
4,477
333
Down Under
I don't know if you're saying it is or isn't?

If compared to the partial years where he was nearing 2.1 PPG, Mario was close to that at 1.9 PPG through 59-64 games of 85-86. Then Lemieux actually finished the season, with his scoring rate dropping through the usual attrition. As it did in 1988-89, when Lemieux outscored his 92-93 pace through 60 games, then declined. As Gretzky's pace did when he went from 3 PPG in the season in question. down to 2.77 over 74 games.

Scoring an actual 141 in 79 actual games, is better then scoring 121 in 64, and then imagining the 150-point season he would have been on pace for.
What i'm saying is that was not close to peak Lemieux, so we might as well compare to peak Stastny here.
How far was he off of Gretzky?
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
53,362
83,425
Vancouver, BC
Power-play points
35 - Gretzky
32 - Daoust (Yes, Dan Daoust of the Leafs!)
28 - Federko

In a discussion about Gretzky's greatest season, the thing I'm actually blown away by most in this thread is this stat. Over 2/3 of a season at Gretzky's absolutely peak, Dan Daoust was keeping up with him point-for-point on the PP. The same Dan Daoust who was a 20-point 4th line center two years later.

The final couple months of the season obviously didn't go as well, as he finished with 34 PP points total.
 

blogofmike

Registered User
Dec 16, 2010
2,178
926
What i'm saying is that was not close to peak Lemieux, so we might as well compare to peak Stastny here.
How far was he off of Gretzky?

Indeed. But he was about as close as Gretzky 88-89 was to the Gretzky with the 51 game point streak, or 47 point playoff run, or 50 goals in 39 games, or wherever you determine Gretzky's peak was.
 

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