Is Dubnyk a top 5 goalie in the NHL?

[Regal]

This thread is a giant example of what happens when your conclusion comes before your evidence.

Dubnyk plays slightly below average on a famously bad Edmonton team, and it's used as evidence he sucks.

Dubnyk plays great on a good Minnesota team, and it's evidence that he's getting carried by the team.

So basically, the only way to be considered good is to be great on a terrible team. Weirdly enough, none of the other goalies named like Price, Rask, Quick, Holtby, etc., were ever on a team as bad as the Oilers, and some of them, like Quick, haven't really played behind a bad defense ever.

So basically, people decided Dubnyk was bad 5 years ago, and no matter what happens they'll never change their minds. Sad.

I wouldn't say it's impossible to change minds, just that it's harder to do it when a player has a long history of being average, and especially when his numbers were average again just last season. Plus, goalies are more prone to outlier seasons.

 

[Frank Drebin]

I wouldn't say it's impossible to change minds, just that it's harder to do it when a player has a long history of being average, and especially when his numbers were average again just last season. Plus, goalies are more prone to outlier seasons.

This. He was God awful 7 months ago in the playoffs. If he has a good playoffs this year I'll start to come around.

 

[Mubiki]

I think there are a few who if they are affected it's VERY minimal

Price comes the mind. I think if Carey Price were a leaf it wouldn't matter that he would have Polak and Hunwick and Marincin although Marincin is currently injured.

I think the way this team can score and for all it's issues it can score,and with how good Price is if those 2 elements came together Price would put up Similar numbers because he's that good.

Rask is another guy that comes to mind, he basically has Boston in a playoff spot by himself because he sure as hell isn't playing behind the 2011 Bruins D.

There aren't many but there are some goalies who aren't really impacted by their D

So why doesn't Montreal trade Weber for an all-star forward? Or any other team with a top 3 goalie?

 

[GordieHoweHatTrick]

I did not expect this turnaround; goalies probably have the hardest time regaining their confidence and the Oilers absolutely destroyed his.

I would know what destroying a goalie's confidence looks like--I'm a Leafs fan

 

[Trocity]

Price
Rask
Crawford
Jones
Lundpads

so no.

and Holtby is barely top 10.

I'm a massive Sharks fan, and honestly, there's no way Jones is a top 5 goalie in the league. He played well last year and was hot in the playoffs, but he's been average this year.

Price, Rask, Lundqvist are top 5. Crawford... Meh. He's top 10, I can't put him in that next tier of top 5, though.

 

[W75]

I did not expect this turnaround; goalies probably have the hardest time regaining their confidence and the Oilers absolutely destroyed his.

I would know what destroying a goalie's confidence looks like--I'm a Leafs fan

Respect, I'm a goalie fan and what's happening with Dubnyk is beautiful.

PS. Also understand the other side you're talking about. Followed Finnish goalies more closely since Kiprusoff, Toskala.. etc. Even though when was a kid and couldn't skate that well.. Still tried to stop pucks/balls in outdoor games and imagined being Kari Takko in the NHL

One day it'll get better in Toronto too if it hasn't already started.

 

[jedisports]

This thread is a giant example of what happens when your conclusion comes before your evidence.

Dubnyk plays slightly below average on a famously bad Edmonton team, and it's used as evidence he sucks.

Dubnyk plays great on a good Minnesota team, and it's evidence that he's getting carried by the team.

So basically, the only way to be considered good is to be great on a terrible team. Weirdly enough, none of the other goalies named like Price, Rask, Quick, Holtby, etc., were ever on a team as bad as the Oilers, and some of them, like Quick, haven't really played behind a bad defense ever.

So basically, people decided Dubnyk was bad 5 years ago, and no matter what happens they'll never change their minds. Sad.

You are bang on.

 

[AKL]

I wouldn't say it's impossible to change minds, just that it's harder to do it when a player has a long history of being average, and especially when his numbers were average again just last season. Plus, goalies are more prone to outlier seasons.

How many "outlier seasons" does he need to have with Minnesota before they are no longer outlier seasons?

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

How many "outlier seasons" does he need to have with Minnesota before they are no longer outlier seasons?

I am guessing something like 16 playoff wins and 16 playoff shutouts this season.

 

[BLONG7]

This guy is just lights out right now...he is absolutely a top goalie!! I don't watch many of their games, so is it him, is it the team, or probably a combination....but he is very deserving of some attention from the media....imagine just one second, if he plays for the Leafs...............

 

[BDizzle*]

To answer OP's question. Dubnyk is definitely a top 5 goalie, and I would go out as far as saying he is the best goalie in the league this season. I feel the Vezina is his to lose. Price will definitely make it interesting, but Dubnyk is having an incredible season and I think more Eastern Conference fans need to pay attention.

 

[BDizzle*]

Imagine if the Oilers still had him on their roster and he played at the same caliber that he is now. They would be scary good.

 

[57special]

Imagine if the Oilers still had him on their roster and he played at the same caliber that he is now. They would be scary good.

I'm loving what Dubnyk is doing, but part of his success is due to the D specifically, and the two way focus of the Wild as a whole, i.e. team D. Wild are getting outshot most nights, but not too many players get clean looks, though I'll say that's partly due to Doobs inhalation of rebounds.

It's kinda cool when your #5 dman is Scandella, and Folin(#6) has improved this year so he's quite solid...not a PMD, but solid.

EDM is improving defensively due to Larsson, but they still have a ways to go as a team. Dubnyk would not be putting up the same numbers with EDM. I have to say I wasn't that impressed with Kelfbom's defense the few times I've watched him this year...maybe that was just a bad few games?

Price is very, very good. He "looks" better than Dubnyk...more athletic. Doobs big thing is just getting in the way of the puck, then freezing it. Wasn't it Tretiak who said, "Stop puck, find puck, freeze puck." or something like that?

 

[W75]

To answer OP's question. Dubnyk is definitely a top 5 goalie, and I would go out as far as saying he is the best goalie in the league this season. I feel the Vezina is his to lose. Price will definitely make it interesting, but Dubnyk is having an incredible season and I think more Eastern Conference fans need to pay attention.

No, he isn't.

Phew, barely dodged the bullet..

 

[keppel146]

doobs should have had his 5th shutout against FLA the other night too...if it wasn't for a puck (would have gone wide of net) that went off brodin's skate with 4 mins. left in the 3rd period.

And yes, he's saved the wild's bacon a number of times this year. he should definitely be considered.

 

[Uberdachen]

doobs should have had his 5th shutout against FLA the other night too...if it wasn't for a puck (would have gone wide of net) that went off brodin's skate with 4 mins. left in the 3rd period.

And yes, he's saved the wild's bacon a number of times this year. he should definitely be considered.

It's too bad he couldn't be saved from the Wild's Bacon against Florida.

 

[Regal]

How many "outlier seasons" does he need to have with Minnesota before they are no longer outlier seasons?

You make it sound as if this has been his play for years. He had a 39 game stretch of elite play his first year with the team and now a 24 game stretch. That's still less games than last season where he put up slightly above average numbers. If he finishes the year strong and starts next year the same, then maybe it's time to talk about him being better.

 

[Mubiki]

You make it sound as if this has been his play for years. He had a 39 game stretch of elite play his first year with the team and now a 24 game stretch. That's still less games than last season where he put up slightly above average numbers. If he finishes the year strong and starts next year the same, then maybe it's time to talk about him being better.

The problem is the blatant team double standard.

If the team matters, then he was actually pretty good in Edmonton outside of one year. That team was awful.

My issue that they use a bad team against him, AND a good team against him. Can't have it both ways.

 

[Regal]

The problem is the blatant team double standard.

If the team matters, then he was actually pretty good in Edmonton outside of one year. That team was awful.

My issue that they use a bad team against him, AND a good team against him. Can't have it both ways.

Well, I don't think team effects are always black and white. Some teams might play to a goalie's strengths and help prop up his numbers more than if he was on a lesser team, whereas a different goalie might only be able to match those numbers on the good team (because it's difficult to put up much better ones), but put up better numbers on the lesser ones. Dubnyk wasn't bad in Edmonton outside of '13-14, and took more blame than he should, but he also wasn't great and seemed prone to weak, deflating goals. I don't think that version of Dubnyk puts up much better numbers simply by being on a better team. So I'd say either he's improved his physical and/or mental game, the team specifically helps his game, or he's been riding some pockets of unsustainable play. I haven't seen him enough with the Wild compared to his days in Edmonton to really notice what the difference is.

I generally agree with you though that it's really hard to shed old labels for some players, and specifically goalies. Brian Elliott is another case. Though, realistically, fans of the Wild shouldn't care how he'd play in another situation or where he should rank because of it. As long as he can put up the numbers in their situation, that's all that matters. Especially for 4.3 million.

 

[rynryn]

Crap, if the Wild can prop up a scrub like Dubnyk just think what they could do for one of the top 5 goalies. Don't let them get to free agency! Those guys would be beating down our door to put up HoF numbers here.

 

[Seanaconda]

This thread is a giant example of what happens when your conclusion comes before your evidence.

Dubnyk plays slightly below average on a famously bad Edmonton team, and it's used as evidence he sucks.

Dubnyk plays great on a good Minnesota team, and it's evidence that he's getting carried by the team.

So basically, the only way to be considered good is to be great on a terrible team. Weirdly enough, none of the other goalies named like Price, Rask, Quick, Holtby, etc., were ever on a team as bad as the Oilers, and some of them, like Quick, haven't really played behind a bad defense ever.

So basically, people decided Dubnyk was bad 5 years ago, and no matter what happens they'll never change their minds. Sad.

Dubnyk actually played above average on the oilers compared to the other tenders they got exept the year he got traded after mctavish blew his confidence. He had pretty great save percentages for the oilers if you remember how bad we were .

We had an awful defense and a bunch of rookie forwards leading the way what do you expect. He had one bad year

 

[nhlfan9191]

I did not expect this turnaround; goalies probably have the hardest time regaining their confidence and the Oilers absolutely destroyed his.

I would know what destroying a goalie's confidence looks like--I'm a Leafs fan

Dubnyk came out and admitted he was a big part of his decline in 2014. He got his poop in a group and listened to Burke when he hit rock bottom and turned his career around.

 

[hohosaregood]

Only if you can name 4 better.

 

[Spurgeon]

Records his 5th shutout tonight. Continues to lead the league in shutouts, SV% (.948), and GAA (1.55).

 

[MessierII]

I'd consider him the hart favorite. Who is dominating their position to this extent? There isn't anyone.