Is Dmitry Orlov the best Caps dman this season?

[HecticGlow]

I think the bigger problem was the Caps keeping Schmidt and Orlov together.

One thing that makes me wonder about orlov a little is the potential language barrier. I know his English isn't terrible, but one point Orpik made is that Schmidt's a great communicator - 'especially for someone his age'. Orpik-Orlov wasn't a great pair last year, and perhaps Orpik's comment about Schmidt just made me wonder. In the above clip no one is directing traffic and clearly Schmidt and Orlov aren't in sync - Orpik, Niskanen and Alzner always make sure they know who their guy is, and who their partner's guy. I just wonder if that's one of the reasons Schmidt-Carlson and Orpik-Schmidt have appeared better than Orlov did with those guys. Either way, pairing Orlov and Schmidt was a poor coaching decision during the playoffs - one I doubt we'll see repeated this year.

Hopefully when Niskanen returns we'll see some good chemistry between Niskanen and Orlov. Because I think Orpik-Schmidt is the best and most consistent third pair we can afford, and as others have pointed out the value of Schmidt's speed and defensive IQ (relative to his role) aren't to be underestimated.

(For what it's worth, I still think Schmidt with Niskanen or Alzner could be a great pairing.)

 

[trick9]

Schmidt getting scratched in favor of Mike Weber isn't an indictment of Schmidt, it's an indictment of Trotz.

And passing out of the zone is one of the best ways a D can actually play defense. I think people are still stuck on defense as blocking shots, clearing the crease, and hitting people instead of doing something far more important: preventing the other team from having the puck.

Not really.

In game 1 Schmidt and Orlov hit each other and the Penguins scored on that 2-on-0. Penguins tied the game late with Schmidt again on the ice and he re-directed that tying goal to his own net. In Game 3 he had that blunder that was already posted.

He was benched because he did his best to give away the games even with limited minutes. Some coach would have benched him already after Game 1.

 

[twabby]

And then Weber gave the game away in Game 4.

It would be one thing if Trotz had a suitable replacement for the guy who was struggling. But he didn't, he had Mike Weber. All of the risk and none of the upside of Schmidt.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Schmidt getting scratched in favor of Mike Weber isn't an indictment of Schmidt, it's an indictment of Trotz.

And passing out of the zone is one of the best ways a D can actually play defense. I think people are still stuck on defense as blocking shots, clearing the crease, and hitting people instead of doing something far more important: preventing the other team from having the puck.

Passing the puck out of the zone implies that you took control of it in your own zone, which means your team has already defended.

Moving the puck out is the transition. So Schmidt is good at transitions. That's still better than what Mike Weber can do, I'll give you that.

 

[Hivemind]

People doubling down on their ignorance of the value of the transition game.

Being able to establish a quick and effective breakout is crucial to both defensive and offensive hockey, even if it doesn't show up on the scoresheet. Getting the puck out of your own zone with speed and control is something the Caps in general have struggled with, but Nate Schmidt has been a bright spot in that regard. You need that kind of momentum from your defense in order to get quality offensive chances at even-strength. It's also essential for preventing your opponent from both maintaining pressure in your zone (as Orlov could do with a high-risk turnover) or quickly regaining possession (as most of the rest of our defense would do when they just dump the puck forwards). Keeping the puck out of your zone is the best way at preventing goals in the NHL. Bar none.

did you want to check who orlov was playing against vs what the others were? Carlson had 12pts in 12 games. Orlov took a scratch. Coaching bias?

My comment wasn't saying that Orlov was better than Carlson or that Orlov didn't deserve his scratch. Follow along the previous comments. Every Caps defenseman struggled in the Penguins series. The Penguins tore through the top two pairings just as much as the third.

 

[SpinningEdge]

People doubling down on their ignorance of the value of the transition game.

Being able to establish a quick and effective breakout is crucial to both defensive and offensive hockey, even if it doesn't show up on the scoresheet. Getting the puck out of your own zone with speed and control is something the Caps in general have struggled with, but Nate Schmidt has been a bright spot in that regard. You need that kind of momentum from your defense in order to get quality offensive chances at even-strength. It's also essential for preventing your opponent from both maintaining pressure in your zone (as Orlov could do with a high-risk turnover) or quickly regaining possession (as most of the rest of our defense would do when they just dump the puck forwards). Keeping the puck out of your zone is the best way at preventing goals in the NHL. Bar none.


My comment wasn't saying that Orlov was better than Carlson or that Orlov didn't deserve his scratch. Follow along the previous comments. Every Caps defenseman struggled in the Penguins series. The Penguins tore through the top two pairings just as much as the third.

We understand the importance of the transition game.... that's basically one of many possession statistics.

I think you're overrating Schmidts transition game. If he was so good at getting puck from defensive zone to offensive he'd have more points - or his possession numbers would be better.

If his transition game is so good at quickly generating possession - then his possession number is really concerning bc it shows actually getting the puck on defense isn't where it needs to be.

Just my opinion. Obviously Schmidt has some qualities as you're mentioning - but for you saying people are ignorant for not looking at the value of transition we can say it's ignorant for other people to not see the importance of generating offense, putting pucks on net, not being pushed around like a child in front of net, etc.

 

[Hivemind]

Schmidt has outperformed many other Capitals defensemen when it comes to showing up on the even strength score sheet. He's second on the Caps blueline with 0.96 Points/60 this season. He's been ahead of Niskanen in each of the past two seasons. Playing fewer minutes and no PP time is why Schmidt's raw totals are less.

As for his transition game, both the data and the eye test support him as a terrific transition player.
http://www.japersrink.com/2015/5/28/8636631/driving-the-bus-passing-microstats-and-the-caps

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Too bad terrific transition player doesn't translate into terrific NHL Defenseman. Love Schmitty, but he has a way to go.

 

[MrGone]

One of the team d leaders for points and plus minus while playing less minutes than Carlson and others.

What do Caps fans think? How is he looking compared to last year ?

I am just happy we are not paying him 6m a season to do it.

 

[artilector]

Orlov's combination of risk, reward, cap hit, and depth chart position is a nice fit.
Would be nice to retain him at "cheap/reasonable" salary, and then have him take another step as far as decision-making.
But alas, looks like decent odds for him to leave for Vegas.
Btw, if he really becomes the likely unprotected odd man out, why not trade him preemptively to some team that would have no problems protecting him?

 

[txpd]

Orlov's combination of risk, reward, cap hit, and depth chart position is a nice fit.
Would be nice to retain him at "cheap/reasonable" salary, and then have him take another step as far as decision-making.
But alas, looks like decent odds for him to leave for Vegas.
Btw, if he really becomes the likely unprotected odd man out, why not trade him preemptively to some team that would have no problems protecting him?

do you mean during the season?

 

[Hivemind]

Orlov's combination of risk, reward, cap hit, and depth chart position is a nice fit.
Would be nice to retain him at "cheap/reasonable" salary, and then have him take another step as far as decision-making.
But alas, looks like decent odds for him to leave for Vegas.
Btw, if he really becomes the likely unprotected odd man out, why not trade him preemptively to some team that would have no problems protecting him?

There's two issues with this, one specific to this scenario and one more general.

The general point is, every team is going to lose a player they'd rather keep in the expansion draft. If you trade away a player to avoid losing them, you end up without two players instead of just one. It really only makes sense in very specific situations (namely goaltenders, where Pittsburgh needs to move Fleury for a goaltender they can expose in his place in order to protect Murray).

Specifically, what's the market for teams that would be willing to protect Orlov? Almost every team is only going to be using the 3 defenseman protection option in order to protect more forwards (and the one or two who opt for 8 general skaters are doing so because they're already flushed on defense), leaving little room for Orlov to be protected. This is further compounded by NMC being auto-protects. I used Colorado as an example of this the last time it was discussed, as both Beauchemin and Erik Johnson have NMCs that mean they must be protected, and they wouldn't expose Barrie over Orlov. So even defensively strapped teams like Colorado don't have a spot to protect Dima. As a result, you're talking about very few teams that would have an interest in protecting Dima. And even those teams are going to do the calculation that in order to protect Orlov, they have to expose another player they'd rather protect. So in essence, that team would be giving up both the trade assets and the newly unprotected player in exchange for Orlov, which would obviously drive down their offer price.

 

[artilector]

There's two issues with this, one specific to this scenario and one more general.

The general point is, every team is going to lose a player they'd rather keep in the expansion draft. If you trade away a player to avoid losing them, you end up without two players instead of just one. It really only makes sense in very specific situations (namely goaltenders, where Pittsburgh needs to move Fleury for a goaltender they can expose in his place in order to protect Murray).

Specifically, what's the market for teams that would be willing to protect Orlov? Almost every team is only going to be using the 3 defenseman protection option in order to protect more forwards (and the one or two who opt for 8 general skaters are doing so because they're already flushed on defense), leaving little room for Orlov to be protected. This is further compounded by NMC being auto-protects. I used Colorado as an example of this the last time it was discussed, as both Beauchemin and Erik Johnson have NMCs that mean they must be protected, and they wouldn't expose Barrie over Orlov. So even defensively strapped teams like Colorado don't have a spot to protect Dima. As a result, you're talking about very few teams that would have an interest in protecting Dima. And even those teams are going to do the calculation that in order to protect Orlov, they have to expose another player they'd rather protect. So in essence, that team would be giving up both the trade assets and the newly unprotected player in exchange for Orlov, which would obviously drive down their offer price.

If no teams have "protection space" for Orlov, then sure, there's nothing to discuss. (Not being snarky -- I certainly haven't analyzed team rosters lately..)

 

[txpd]

If no teams have "protection space" for Orlov, then sure, there's nothing to discuss. (Not being snarky -- I certainly haven't analyzed team rosters lately..)

The other part of that is, what is the return particularly if this is to be done before the trade deadline this season. Do you want to remove a roster defenseman for futures and move Chorney and Ness or Bowey up?

If you trade him for a valuable roster addition, then very likely you are bringing in the asset that gets selected and you are in the same spot as when you add Orlov.

Of course you can do both. Trade Orlov and reduced your defensive lineup and acquire a good forward that you cant protect.

 

[ViD]

Time to bump this thread.

He's now second in points among Caps d men and second in +/- in the entire team while being the best offensive d man on the team as of late.

What do you say ? Caps extend and protect him ?

 

[twabby]

It's not even a question at this point IMO. Protect and extend him, and worry about Alzner after the expansion draft.

I'd even consider offering a long-term contract to keep the cap-hit down.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

He's a perfect fit for the system they've been running the last ~30 games.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

His playoff performance matters, but unless he absolutely craps the bed, he's earned a protection spot IMO.

 

[Hivemind]

They definitely extend and protect Orlov, but Niskanen is still the best Caps defenseman this season.

 

[txpd]

His playoff performance matters, but unless he absolutely craps the bed, he's earned a protection spot IMO.

I tend to agree with this. At minimum he is in the conversation with Alzner for the 3rd spot. Orlov is still not the best defenseman on the team by several steps.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

This is becoming a difficult situation. There are 4 defensemen that we want to protect but one has to go. It is between Orlov and Alzner. The player GMBM chooses to protect will clearly define the direction in which this franchise is going for the next few years. On one hand you have an offense first, high speed/creative player. On the other hand you have a defense first, stay at home D. The way it's been trending the past month, it looks like the system is more suitable for Orlov than Alzner.

Or, we sacrifice current and future assets to Vegas in order to keep all 4 Ds.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You have to wait on Alzner and hope you can work out a gentlemen's agreement to sign as an UFA. Will be very damaging next season and beyond if he's lost and Orlov doesn't get a LOT better defensively.

Systems come and go a lot more frequently than good players.

 

[Calicaps]

This is becoming a difficult situation. There are 4 defensemen that we want to protect but one has to go. It is between Orlov and Alzner. The player GMBM chooses to protect will clearly define the direction in which this franchise is going for the next few years. On one hand you have an offense first, high speed/creative player. On the other hand you have a defense first, stay at home D. The way it's been trending the past month, it looks like the system is more suitable for Orlov than Alzner.

Or, we sacrifice current and future assets to Vegas in order to keep all 4 Ds.

I'm not super knowledgeable about our prospect pool. Of the potential NHL D in the system, tho, I'd guess we have more Orlov types than Alzner types. Either way, tho, you have to think the potential for a kid to step into one of those empty spaces will factor into GMBM's decision-making.

 

[Raikkonen]

I'm not super knowledgeable about our prospect pool. Of the potential NHL D in the system, tho, I'd guess we have more Orlov types than Alzner types. Either way, tho, you have to think the potential for a kid to step into one of those empty spaces will factor into GMBM's decision-making.

8 & 19 are getting older each year. There are no ready defensemen in Hershey to be played at he SCF level. One way or another we need 4 top-4 dmen.

The best younger guy we have is currently injured and is projected as 3RD deep behind Niskanen and Carlson.

OK, now everybody knows we should trade Carlson while his value is high which will resolve this situation.

 

[Midnight Judges]

He still makes the occasional high risk pass in his own zone.