Is Darnell Nurse a #1D?

[goonybird]

Is Nurse one of the really really good ones?

There's loads of room for bickering, but I wouldn't put him in a tier with Pietrangelo Hedman Fox Makar Josi and Carlson. Maybe not even with Hamilton Hughes Theodore Ekblad Letang Rielly McAvoy (just throwing names out there), but I'd almost certainly have him in the top 32.

Whether he's a high/mid/low tier #1 is pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, as is his contract if we're only assessing talent.

 

[The Moose is Loose]

I still don’t think there is 32 dmen in the league that are better than him

He has one of the hardest assignments in the entire NHL- more 5v5/PK minutes than any other player in the league, playing with weak defensive partners like Barrie and Bouchard (who is still a green rookie), in a terrible defensive system and still putting up strong even strength numbers.

Is he the kind of dman who will ever be in serious Norris contention or someone you ideally build your entire dcore around? No.
But there are aren’t many dmen who can be swapped into his place and excel.
So sure if you only consider 10ish guys “#1 dmen” then no he’s not one obviously. But I’d absolutely argue he’s top 32.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Nurse is basically a poor man's Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf at his best (as a Flame paired with Hamrlik) anilliates Nurse at his best, not even close.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

He's overpaid by at least 3M

More like 4 mill when you see Devon Toews making half of what Nurse makes and he's better than Nurse.

 

[bsu]

I still don't agree with the first 32D are the best D in the league. Just like the first 32G's in the league aren't all superstars. Boston has 3G's better than every goalie on the Oilers. Arizona has starters but you'd be hard pressed to convince me they are the better than some teams backups.

As a simple example... that would eliminate one of the Top D from the Avs. It is very possible that several teams in the NHL do not have a primo number 1 and some teams have more than one. Eg. last year, the leading goal scorer and minutes guy for Detroit was Filip Hronek. Led the entire team in points and minutes. I love Hronek and he's the best Czech defender but I don't think he's a #1D in the NHL. I'm fairly certain Seider will pass him soon and never look back. Even if you believe Seider is better today (and he very well maybe).. is Seider top 32 today because he is the 1 in Detroit? Is the 1 in Arizona better than the 2 in Colorado? Is the 1 in Buffalo better than the 2 in Vegas?

The list for minutes and the list for points don't have many guys in common.

Here is top 10 by minutes:

View attachment 496673

Here are top 10 by points

View attachment 496675

Only 2 guys (Hedman and Letang) on both lists. For scoring, TDA is higher than Slavin on the Canes. Which one do you want? Barrie outscored Nurse last season on the Oil.. which one do you want?

Basically, my stance hasn't changed.. Nurse would be a 2 on a Stanley Cup team. He is top pair for sure. He is excellent for sure. I don't have him up there with the Makars, Hedman's, Slavins of the world though and I dont' feel there are 32 guys in the NHL that are the top tier. I'd say the top tier is about 10 guys. Nurse is in the second tier. No way he walks on the Avs and gets 26 minutes a night.. or the Bolts.. or the Canes.. or the Knights. His minutes are a reflection of his shitty GM and a weak D core.

9 Mill for him next year will also make him a whipping boy in Edmonton but people won't believe that till next Xmas.lol

If he were a forward he'd be Pastrnak and not Drai.

Stop, if he were a forward he would not be Pastrnak he would be Landeskog/Hertl level player. I don't care about his scoring I would score with Connor and Drai they play/score so much all you need to do is hope you touch the puck.

 

[Czechboy]

Pastrnak he would be Landeskog/Hertl

I have no idea this means... I'd put all 3 on the same type of tier.... but I'm actually not sure if you are saying Pastrnak is better or worse than HertlLandeskog?

 

[bsu]

I have no idea this means... I'd put all 3 on the same type of tier.... but I'm actually not sure if you are saying Pastrnak is better or worse than HertlLandeskog?

This season maybe, but overall I think Pasta is definitely on a different tier.

 

[Regal]

Stop, if he were a forward he would not be Pastrnak he would be Landeskog/Hertl level player. I don't care about his scoring I would score with Connor and Drai they play/score so much all you need to do is hope you touch the puck.

Should be noted his defensive metrics this year are far better. I do think Barrie and playing with McDrai so much broke the model to some degree. He’s a more rounded player imo (worse offensively, better defensively) than those metrics suggested.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Nurse is a 1 D. He just isn't a good 1D and he's paid like he's elite.

 

[Llamamoto]

I don't understand why the results are suddenly skewed towards "no".

He plays 26-27 minutes a night, and shots/chances/expected goals are tilted in his favour while on the ice. There's a huge discrepancy between his expected goal% and his actual goal%, mostly due to the fact that the Oilers have some of the worst goaltending in the league.

Regardless, here are some of his stats while playing huge minutes against elite competition on a bad team:

CF%: 55.64
SCF%: 53.47
xGF%: 56.01

If you look at xGF% relative to a players' team, Darnell Nurse is 2nd in the entire league in comparison to his team. (Among players who have played significant time—15+ games). Of course you have to take into account how bad the rest of the Oilers defense is, buts its also testament to how important Nurse is to our team. Without him our defense would be dead last in the entire league.

He might not be worth 9.25 million, but he's still clearly a #1D and his value to the Oilers is immeasurable.

 

[stl76]

Bump. Can't believe how many people got fooled by a Covid season where he shot at an absurd rate.

You really bumped a year old poll to pat yourself on the back like this?

Next time spare us all the autofellatio and create a new poll like a decent human being.

 

[bobbyking]

advanced stats in hockey are for the biggest weirdos and are useless . nurse is not bad defensively as those stupid numbers would suggest

 

[jonlin]

advanced stats in hockey are for the biggest weirdos and are useless . nurse is not bad defensively as those stupid numbers would suggest

Well, he is not bad defensively and he is good offensively. He is still not elite at either, but gets paid as such. At 7-7,5M he would be paid according to skill. He is essentially the "Marner" of D:s.

 

[Llamamoto]

advanced stats in hockey are for the biggest weirdos and are useless . nurse is not bad defensively as those stupid numbers would suggest

Advanced stats aren't useless at all. They can't be taken without context, but they do provide a decent measure of how a player is performing.

And those "stupid numbers" don't at all suggest Nurse is bad defensively. Quite the opposite if you're going by this year. You'll notice that all the JFresh charts that people are posting are from last year.

 

[Muffin]

advanced stats in hockey are for the biggest weirdos and are useless . nurse is not bad defensively as those stupid numbers would suggest

Don’t need advance stats to tell you that his shooting % last year was not sustainable. He’s getting paid like an elite offensive defenseman but he scores like 10 goals a year. Another **** up by Holland extending Nurse after his career season, I don’t think there’s a chance in hell Nurse gets that kind of money if he signs this year.

 

[Paul4587]

Look at his TOI and the QoC that he plays against. He's in one of the toughest positions in the league and is somehow succeeding in it.

He isn't worth 9.25 million but he most certainly isn't a #3/4 D. I'd comfortably pay him 7-7.5 million a year.

Look at his on ice results when McDavid or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice. They’re brutal.

 

[34]

Look at his on ice results when McDavid or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice. They’re brutal.

Yeah, Nurse is brutal.

 

[Llamamoto]

Look at his on ice results when McDavid or Draisaitl aren’t on the ice. They’re brutal.

Umm... do you actually have stats for that or was it just an assumption?

Nurse without McDavid/Draisaitl at 5v5 this season has an xGF%, SCF%, and HDCF% all above 50%. Considering our lack of depth up front, that's actually extremely impressive.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Tough to argue that he isn't in the league's top 32. He's top 32 in points and 5v5 possession and plays a tonne of minutes.

So he's at worst a lower end #1, but if you evenly redistributed top dmen from across the league he'd be in the first round of placements.

This. Horrible contract and not the type of player you’d want to be your 1D, but he’s top 32.

 

[Paul4587]

Umm... do you actually have stats for that or was it just an assumption?

Nurse without McDavid/Draisaitl at 5v5 this season has an xGF%, SCF%, and HDCF% all above 50%. Considering our lack of depth up front, that's actually extremely impressive.

This year there’s hardly enough sample to convolute anything. I was referring to last season where his numbers without them are brutal.

 

[Cup or Bust]

advanced stats in hockey are for the biggest weirdos and are useless . nurse is not bad defensively as those stupid numbers would suggest

I agree. Hockey has so many moving parts and there are so many situations that can cause a player to play well or struggle beyond just what they are doing on the ice, specifically what others are doing on the ice with them. Most people that constantly quote advanced stats are people that know nothing about hockey and it is the only way they can validate a hockey opinion as they do not have any knowledge to formulate and explain an opinion. People that know hockey well can watch a player play, analyze a player's hockey skills, analyze the team, and understand what is happening on the ice, the causes and effects of good and poor play. They don't need advanced stats to make that analysis. They are a nice tool but should always be a secondary source of information.

Probably the dumbest thing I have seen posted is his numbers when McDavid and Draisaitl are not on the ice. Any player on the Oilers that is on the ice with the third or forth line whether they are a forward or defenseman will have bad numbers.