Not a bad comparison, numbers wise. Brown turned 20 halfway through his big junior season, Brooks was 8 months older, so it's not perfect, but decent. Also, Brown is pretty much
the best case scenario for a player like this.
let's hope lightning strikes twice.
Who knows, the Leafs were trying to exploit a flaw in other teams thinking last year by drafting all those 19yr olds...it could pay off in a couple years.
I think it can and will. I trust analytics and they identified a market inefficiency. I think they'll hit the jackpot on one or two of those guys, and Brooks could be one of them.
This will depend on his ice time. Generally rookies will be given bottom six minutes, and he may have to learn to PK (assuming he didn't pk in the WHL). Timashov is a good example of this, as he really wasn't given the chance to produce this year, but he'll move up the lineup next season and likely be a 0.5 - 0.8 PPG player.
Players that dominate in junior generally translate to the AHL fairly well, it's the NHL that's the big question. Big speed difference between the two leagues, and that's where Brooks may struggle in winning a spot with the Leafs in the future.
I agree that points will obviously depend on ice time. The reason that junior and AHL scoring are reasonable predictors of future upside is because if the player is that good, he will earn that ice time and then score those points. It's not as common that you see a player who's so good, he could be scoring a PPG in the AHL but he's buried on the 4th line scoring 20.
My argument has always been this; if we picked Adam Brooks in his draft year (4th round, same draft as Willy) and produced the way he has in the past 2 seasons how would we feel?
I think pretty excited for a 4th round pick. Lets look at our actual 4th round pick that year, JJ Piccinich. Who would we rather have today? Probably Brooks. In fact, go back to that whole 4th round and there are probably only 2-3 sure bet picks over Brooks and that is cause they have already played in the NHL (one of which was also 3 years older than the draft age, Viktor Arvidsson)
I think that due to the market inefficiency the Leafs identified, Brooks has proven and will continue to prove to be one of the best picks of the 4th round. The problem is, the median performance of a 4th round pick is to never play in the NHL. And even the best ones are rarely special. the forwards with the most GP from the 4th rounds of the 1999-2005 drafts are:
Tootoo 723
Malone 647
Callahan 638
Mitchell 606
Boll 569
Kennedy 529
Dwyer 416
Sobotka 382
Janssen 336
Jones 334
Pyatt 327
McGrattan 317
Vandevelde 278
Porter 249
Kolnik 240
Bissonnette 202
Ouellet 193
...that's everyone with 135 NHL GP - 17 out of 115 forwards drafted in the 4th round in 7 years. To break it down further, we have:
- 1 player who is legitimately valuable (Callahan)
- 1 player who was very useful (Malone)
- 4 players who were ok role players (Tootoo, Kennedy, Mitchell, Dwyer)
- 4 goons (Boll, Janssen, McGrattan, Bissonnette)
- 4 players who were/will be decent contributors for a short time (Sobotka, Jones, Pyatt, Vandevelde)
- 3 players who were given a shot but didn't really work out (Porter, Kolnik, Ouellet)
- 98 players with 135 or fewer NHL GP (most zero)
Since I think the Leafs drafted really smartly in 2016, I expect Brooks to be a better than average 4th rounder, even much better than average, but let's remember what even above average 4th round picks achieve. Technically, Michel Ouellet is in the top 15% of 4th round picks, Vladimir Sobotka is in the top 10%, and Jordan Tootoo is in the top 5%.
While his offensive output is impressive, a big strike against him is that he was sent back to the WHL as a 20 year old for his 5th CHL season.
After putting up 120 points and leading the WHL in scoring in 2015-16 before the Leafs drafted him, you would think that since he was already 20 years old (& completed his mandatory 4 years of CHL service), Leafs would have turned him pro and Brooks played for the Marlies and not back in Regina.
What would a player that already lead the league is scoring have left from junior hockey to prove, and what was the reason Leafs management sent him back?
The future potential of a player that plays 5 years in CHL is questionable, and usually reserved for only undrafted players that really have no place else to go.
All that said, lets hope Brooks is a late bloomer and Leafs get some value from this draft pick, as there is little risk involved and only potential reward here from using a mid round pick on a small, but high scoring junior player.
that's all true.