Prospect Info: Is Adam Brooks that good?

[Anthrax442]

What is his actual size?

 

[Fogelhund]

his draft +1 season he had 62 points in 64 games, that isnt really "good" numbers

But what it is, is stats watching without understanding how it happened. Look into that and you might change your mind.

This was a kid who was buried behind older guys, and then shone when given a chance. They traded away a bunch of older kids, and then his numbers were very good in the latter part of the season. Think fourth line time, with fourth line players most of his early years... and then was top of the team after the trades.

I'm not saying he is going to be great, or even a NHL player... but context is critical. He's a little like Brown, in that he's succeeded against the odds, through hard work. He'll be in the AHL next year, and we will have a couple of years to see if he can elevate his game to compete at higher levels.

 

[seventieslord]

Connor Brown.

Not a bad comparison, numbers wise. Brown turned 20 halfway through his big junior season, Brooks was 8 months older, so it's not perfect, but decent. Also, Brown is pretty much the best case scenario for a player like this.

let's hope lightning strikes twice.

Who knows, the Leafs were trying to exploit a flaw in other teams thinking last year by drafting all those 19yr olds...it could pay off in a couple years.

I think it can and will. I trust analytics and they identified a market inefficiency. I think they'll hit the jackpot on one or two of those guys, and Brooks could be one of them.

This will depend on his ice time. Generally rookies will be given bottom six minutes, and he may have to learn to PK (assuming he didn't pk in the WHL). Timashov is a good example of this, as he really wasn't given the chance to produce this year, but he'll move up the lineup next season and likely be a 0.5 - 0.8 PPG player.

Players that dominate in junior generally translate to the AHL fairly well, it's the NHL that's the big question. Big speed difference between the two leagues, and that's where Brooks may struggle in winning a spot with the Leafs in the future.

I agree that points will obviously depend on ice time. The reason that junior and AHL scoring are reasonable predictors of future upside is because if the player is that good, he will earn that ice time and then score those points. It's not as common that you see a player who's so good, he could be scoring a PPG in the AHL but he's buried on the 4th line scoring 20.

My argument has always been this; if we picked Adam Brooks in his draft year (4th round, same draft as Willy) and produced the way he has in the past 2 seasons how would we feel?

I think pretty excited for a 4th round pick. Lets look at our actual 4th round pick that year, JJ Piccinich. Who would we rather have today? Probably Brooks. In fact, go back to that whole 4th round and there are probably only 2-3 sure bet picks over Brooks and that is cause they have already played in the NHL (one of which was also 3 years older than the draft age, Viktor Arvidsson)

I think that due to the market inefficiency the Leafs identified, Brooks has proven and will continue to prove to be one of the best picks of the 4th round. The problem is, the median performance of a 4th round pick is to never play in the NHL. And even the best ones are rarely special. the forwards with the most GP from the 4th rounds of the 1999-2005 drafts are:

Tootoo 723
Malone 647
Callahan 638
Mitchell 606
Boll 569
Kennedy 529
Dwyer 416
Sobotka 382
Janssen 336
Jones 334
Pyatt 327
McGrattan 317
Vandevelde 278
Porter 249
Kolnik 240
Bissonnette 202
Ouellet 193

...that's everyone with 135 NHL GP - 17 out of 115 forwards drafted in the 4th round in 7 years. To break it down further, we have:

- 1 player who is legitimately valuable (Callahan)
- 1 player who was very useful (Malone)
- 4 players who were ok role players (Tootoo, Kennedy, Mitchell, Dwyer)
- 4 goons (Boll, Janssen, McGrattan, Bissonnette)
- 4 players who were/will be decent contributors for a short time (Sobotka, Jones, Pyatt, Vandevelde)
- 3 players who were given a shot but didn't really work out (Porter, Kolnik, Ouellet)
- 98 players with 135 or fewer NHL GP (most zero)

Since I think the Leafs drafted really smartly in 2016, I expect Brooks to be a better than average 4th rounder, even much better than average, but let's remember what even above average 4th round picks achieve. Technically, Michel Ouellet is in the top 15% of 4th round picks, Vladimir Sobotka is in the top 10%, and Jordan Tootoo is in the top 5%.

While his offensive output is impressive, a big strike against him is that he was sent back to the WHL as a 20 year old for his 5th CHL season.

After putting up 120 points and leading the WHL in scoring in 2015-16 before the Leafs drafted him, you would think that since he was already 20 years old (& completed his mandatory 4 years of CHL service), Leafs would have turned him pro and Brooks played for the Marlies and not back in Regina.

What would a player that already lead the league is scoring have left from junior hockey to prove, and what was the reason Leafs management sent him back?

The future potential of a player that plays 5 years in CHL is questionable, and usually reserved for only undrafted players that really have no place else to go.

All that said, lets hope Brooks is a late bloomer and Leafs get some value from this draft pick, as there is little risk involved and only potential reward here from using a mid round pick on a small, but high scoring junior player.

that's all true.

 

[Damisoph]

What is his actual size?

according to hockey db - 5'10 175

 

[Anthrax442]

according to hockey db - 5'10 175

That hasn't been updated in 2 years

 

[hotpaws]

That hasn't been updated in 2 years

how do you know that ?

 

[Mess]

Same figures on the Pats team site:

http://reginapats.com/players/26506

PS: 20/21 year olds are generally finished grow up, only filling out is left.

 

[New Leaf]

PS: 20/21 year olds are generally finished grow up, only filling out is left.

Most biologists today would tell you that you don't really stop until ~24-25yo

 

[glue]

While his offensive output is impressive, a big strike against him is that he was sent back to the WHL as a 20 year old for his 5th CHL season.

After putting up 120 points and leading the WHL in scoring in 2015-16 before the Leafs drafted him, you would think that since he was already 20 years old (& completed his mandatory 4 years of CHL service), Leafs would have turned him pro and Brooks played for the Marlies and not back in Regina.

What would a player that already lead the league is scoring have left from junior hockey to prove, and what was the reason Leafs management sent him back?

The future potential of a player that plays 5 years in CHL is questionable, and usually reserved for only undrafted players that really have no place else to go.

All that said, lets hope Brooks is a late bloomer and Leafs get some value from this draft pick, as there is little risk involved and only potential reward here from using a mid round pick on a small, but high scoring junior player.

Its a valid point, but I think one of the reasons they couldn't quite consider promoting him was this last year they had to bury quite a few veterans with the Marlies, creating less of an opportunity for him to really develop there. I would be shocked if he's not promoted to the Marlies next year.

 

[Damisoph]

That hasn't been updated in 2 years

lol well get out your measuring tape

 

[Mess]

Its a valid point, but I think one of the reasons they couldn't quite consider promoting him was this last year they had to bury quite a few veterans with the Marlies, creating less of an opportunity for him to really develop there. I would be shocked if he's not promoted to the Marlies next year.

He is ineligible for CHL next year so it would have to be AHL or ECHL for him.

 

[glue]

He is ineligible for CHL next year so it would have to be AHL or ECHL for him.

ECHL to me is a step down from the AHL, so hopefully AHL is where he is going if that's the case.

 

[seventieslord]

ECHL to me is a step down from the AHL, so hopefully AHL is where he is going if that's the case.

ECHL to everyone is a step down from the AHL

 

[X66]

I know Button is high on Brooks as well.

His coach even said prior to his arrival Brooks wasn't given the right role to succeed, so it might explain his poor numbers before, because he put up some big numbers when he was younger.

I think people need to get over the fact that he's an over age player, you know why the team took him, guess you have to wait and see if they were right or not.

 

[Randy Randerson]

according to hockey db - 5'10 175

the WHL site has him at the same, Elite Prospects at 5'11" 176lbs - never going to be a big guy but if he gains 10lbs he's in the normal range of the bell curve

 

[Finnish your Czech]

You can't expect anything more out of Brooks. It's basically not possible to get more points than he already did. That doesn't make him a star prospect but it still makes him pretty good.

A comparable (to a lesser degree) situation would be W. Nylander vs Ehlers in their draft + 1 year. Ehlers scored a lot of points in the QMJHL, but didn't get the credit for it because it was the QMJHL (even though he basically got the most you can expect out of a player), while Nylander got a decent amount of points in the AHL. Most people considered Nylander to be the much better prospect even though they're around the same level.

 

[MagicalRazor]

I've talked to some of my connection and they labeled him as a Connor brown skill level at best , a work horse that competes and has some skill but no Number 1 . Im a huge brown fan so im happy with this evaluation

 

[Anthrax442]

I've talked to some of my connection and they labeled him as a Connor brown skill level at best , a work horse that competes and has some skill but no Number 1 . Im a huge brown fan so im happy with this evaluation

He should give them some depth in the Marlies next year. THey had a huge issue with lack of center depth in the AHL

 

[67Cup]

Having seen Brooks from reasonably close up in Calgary, I would guess the 5'10" measurement is close to accurate. If anything it might be an inch exaggerated. But not by any more than that. He's below the NHL average size but not a midget.

To repeat something I wrote earlier, the advantage that Brooks might have over other high scoring junior grads is that he plays a very sound defensive game. He doesn't need to make the top six on a team to contribute. That could work in his favour

 

[Iapyi]

I'm aware that happened, but even if one was to strike those games from the record completely, his production wasn't up to his usual standards.

Stats and numbers aren't everything - but when we're talking about a junior aged player, their offensive numbers relative to their age has actually been a surprisingly strong predictor of what their NHL level upside will be.

i wonder how many players keep thje same PPG average in the plauyoffs that they had in the regular season. my guess is not very many

 

[Mickey Marner]

I don't know if Brooks plays the same game as Brownie, but this is a good comparison otherwise. Later round picks, not expected to have their junior production translate to the pro game. Who knows, the Leafs were trying to exploit a flaw in other teams thinking last year by drafting all those 19yr olds...it could pay off in a couple years.

I think the decision to dedicate a draft to the short game was calculated from a cap structure point of view. You lose out on higher potential players that won't be ready when the big three get there raises. But you gain cheap soldiers that can replace the fat trimmed in order to ice a competitive, cap compliant roster. They enter a youth-friendly environment and they need only be productive for 2 or 3 seasons before the cap rises and the long-term projects are ripe and ready.

 

[HockeyGuruPitka]

Ive watched him a few times and came away thinking that hes a very economical player. Not overly skilled but has a very high iq. Able to see the ice and find open space. Puts the pucks into places for his line-mates to clean up. He is a good skater and good at both ends of the ice.

I see him as a Bozak type player should he reach his potential.

 

[seventieslord]

i wonder how many players keep thje same PPG average in the plauyoffs that they had in the regular season. my guess is not very many

You're right, it's not very many. But a near 50% drop is also well outside of the normal range.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You're right, it's not very many. But a near 50% drop is also well outside of the normal range.

I don't think it was a near 50% drop, he was dressed but didn't actually get ice time in 4-5 games, around a 1.5ppg pace if you remove the games that he didn't have a shift - so closer to a 25% drop. Those games didn't all happen together either, so seems like there's a pretty strong case that a bunch of his playoff games were played hurt as well

He came out of the gate with 9pts in his first 5 games, then got hurt early in game 2 of the second series which lots of sources were calling "worrying" and "not good", then had 9 pts in his remaining 12 games
http://leaderpost.com/sports/hockey/regina-pats/adam-brooks-injury-leads-to-wondering-and-worrying

His playoff production last year was actually better than his regular season production, so I think it's fair to say that this playoff production deserves a huge asterisk

 

[Territory]

He reminds me of Connor Brown.

Big scorer who spent a lot of time in Junior and always has people discrediting his production. (Overage, plays with McDavid, etc.)

The team will take their time with him like they did with Brown. He'll marinate in the AHL for 2+ seasons and if he's ready he'll be an NHLer.