I'm not sure I would look at it that way (I'm playing devil's advocate). Carle at $5.5 million replacing Holden would fill up the same roster spot as Holden out of 23 players, while Carle having salary retained and keeping Holden takes up two roster spots. So you still need a depth defensemen if you trade Holden, and that takes up cap space. Also, it would upset the cap structure by having a mediocre D at $5.5 million.
Okay okay... let me explain further... I condensed 2 situations into a simpler explanation. I probably shouldn't have done that.
You are not getting a better defensemen for 4.5m over 3 years in the UFA market. Oduya will likely command more than that amount for 5 years. Carle isn't great, but he is still a top 4 puck mover who can be good on the PP. That helps solve two issues with the Avs. It doesn't solve them fully, but it does help. It is like getting a cheaper UFA that isn't going to hurt the team in 4-5 years.
Sending Holden or Stuart out sends out a contract that potentially is an issue in 16-17. It is essentially dumping one of those contracts to get a discount on getting Carle. Effectively only increasing the cap it by the 3.85 and 1.9m over them. Kills two birds with one stone. It adds the same player who can be in the top 4 and help the PP while getting rid of a contract that is detrimental. Now, the Avs don't
have to backfill the defensive spot. They can easily roll with 7 defensmen instead of 8 or 22 players instead of 23, they have done it with injuries many times over the past two seasons. But if they did, that player is likely making less than a million and the Avs still are saving money compared having Holden or Stuart on the roster. Not as much, but still some. It would be more like having Carle at a ~4.7/2.7 salary (cut the difference between Holden/Stuart and Bigras/Siemens), but over 3 years... that is also a pretty good situation and it clears a bottom pairing spot out for a kid to slide in.
Ideally you get $1m retained AND get rid of a bad contract, but the Avs would probably have to give something pretty decent to get that deal through.
What's a likely free agent contract for Paul Martin? Someone goes insane like teams usually do on July 1st and offers him a bizarre long-term deal or will we see 2-3 years with a $5-6M cap hit?
5x5 is probably a good expectation.
The way I see it, Carle is not a top pairing defenseman and he's not going to play with Barrie, which leaves him on the bottom pair. Which is pretty much where he should be, and he's not such a significant upgrade on Holden to justify paying him 3.85M extra to play him in the same position. I like Holden more actually, as long as he is sheltered. I like Redmond to an extent too, but only as a 7th D with someone trustworthy beside him when he's playing, which we currently don't really have on the left side. Redmond and Holden are sort of the same though, we should only have 1 of them. Guenin & Berra are the 2 contracts we need to get rid of if possible. If we found a way to shed 3 of those contracts this offseason would be win just for that.
None of the UFA options are top pairing either... and you'd have to pay them more for longer. You can debate Sekera, but I think he is a 2/3 sort or a high end 3... also he is going to get 6.5m+.