Ilya Sorokin: From consensus top-3 goalie to mid

[Prairie Habs]

Shesterkin the stand alone elite goalie in todays game

16th in sv% among goalies with 20 or more starts. Almost as good as his 10th place last season.

 

[AlaBlueShirt]

Shesterkin the stand alone elite goalie in todays game

He's been solid as of late but let's not pretend like everyone including Stephen Valiquette made it known that Quick deserved a starting role until Shesty got his shit together.

 

[TGWL]

Play stupid defense. Win stupid goals against. It's really that simple. You can take a look around the league at goalies you would consider average performing well under teams that have a better defensive structure in front of them. Every team wants an elite goalie but eventually an elite goalie will stop bailing your team out every game.

Also, when you start losing a lot of games, it takes it's toll on you, mentally. For goalies, if you lose that confidence or you stop trusting the team in front of you, it's going to be a difficult time. When things go right we see that confidence in goalies but when it goes downhill, it's a struggle to dig yourself out of that.

 

[shaner8989]

This thread shows how trash goaltending really is. He’s officially lost his job and was considered a top goalie even earlier this year.

 

[Osakahaus]

Sorokins biggest issue THIS SEASON is that he's got the yips. Granted he's the best with high danger saves but holy crap the amount of weird fluke goals that he's given up is insane. Well also giving up the most shots in the NHL won't help either. Dont really feel *too* concerned but I understand why people can say he's mid.

 

[miscs75]

He’s ahead by close to 30 shots with the same SV% as Saros. He’s been burned out by the invisible defense infront of him. Even on a down year he’s still steady. If the team infront of him didn’t have a Doug Weight clone on the bench this season, it would be a completely different story. Roy should have honestly went to Varly earlier then he did to help let Ilya mentally refocus and adjust like how the Rangers did with Quick when Igor couldn’t stop the puck this season.

 

[Osakahaus]

View attachment 845424

He’s ahead by close to 30 shots with the same SV% as Saros. He’s been burned out by the invisible defense infront of him. Even on a down year he’s still steady. If the team infront of him didn’t have a Doug Weight clone on the bench this season, it would be a completely different story. Roy should have honestly went to Varly earlier then he did to help let Ilya mentally refocus and adjust like how the Rangers did with Quick when Igor couldn’t stop the puck this season.

I think the other issue is that his PK save percentage (and 5v6) is horrendous. But granted when the islanders refuse to clear the puck and constantly allow teams to linger, naturally you will give up more goals in the worst of ways.

 

[TheOne]

Islander team defense this year is much worse as they concentrate a bit more on scoring, so that is one problem. The second is I find him still amazing up close but it seems I seen to many goals from the black oval area(including redirects, but many outright goals as well).

View attachment 845331

According to his player page on nhl edge, he's given up about an equal amount of goals up close as well as the area you've circled.

Looking at his S%, he's actually better in the area you circled than up close

 

[Z-Diddy]

I think the other issue is that his PK save percentage (and 5v6) is horrendous. But granted when the islanders refuse to clear the puck and constantly allow teams to linger, naturally you will give up more goals in the worst of ways.

Also came here to make the point, for what the average HF poster would think about the NYI being a heavy team defense focus, the PK might and be the literally the worst in the league, think 31st last night, that helps no tendy.

 

[Bones45]

Isles Defense.

 

[isles55]

Goalies are voodoo is the lazy answer.

Compare the shots against charts, maybe they give more dangerous shots this year.

Check if he missed practice with maintenance/injury history

Sorokin hasn’t been injured and the Islanders were worse defensively last season.

Goalies are voodoo.

 

[MasterofGrond]

Yes been been unforgivably bad. Best thing to do is trade him to the Devils

 

[Osakahaus]

Yes been been unforgivably bad. Best thing to do is trade him to the Devils

Alright give us Bratt Holtz and Nemec

 

[MasterofGrond]

Alright give us Bratt Holtz and Nemec

Best I can do is 1st-Holtz-Casey

 

[boredmale]

According to his player page on nhl edge, he's given up about an equal amount of goals up close as well as the area you've circled.

Looking at his S%, he's actually better in the area you circled than up close

But how do those stats compare to other goalies? Looking at above average/below average by save percentage, that seems to line up exactly with what I say(great when the puck is close to the net, allowing alot of shots from the area I indicated(the 6 slots behind the face off circles). I am guessing most of the top 10 goalies probably get 910 if not 920 and better in those 6 slots.

 

[Machinehead]

Such is goaltending

 

[saintunspecified]

He hasn't been good. But even if one were to take that terrible PP SV%, and make it closer to average, it's only at most a 3 goal difference.

The real problem is that the Islanders are giving up .557 shorthanded shots per game more this year vs. last year. Multiply that by .13 (assuming 870 sv% shorthanded), and that's another 6 goals against.

Adding to this - the Islanders are giving up another 1.37 shots per game this year vs. last year. Even at a very high 93% ES save percentage, that'd be another 8 goals against.

What I'm saying is that it's a combination of things - the Islanders not controlling the play enough enough, and worse goaltending performances. But *not* controlling play enough is a bigger factor, probably by a factor of at least 2:1 over goaltending.

The key & most fixable problem for the Islanders is defensive play by the forwards. So many forwards are defensive liabilities, and a lot of this is due to age. And especially forwards who are counted on to defend in high leverage situations have taken huge steps back defensively. Guys like Lee, Palmieri, and Clutterbuck just don't get where they need to go to seal off the boards. (It's difficult to say whether the failures of Horvat or Nelson have been their own problems or having to play with Lee and/or Palmieri). And Pageau, especially, seems to lose every battle this year.

One thing - I think Sorokin is below average handling the puck, and passive. It's a weakness of his game, and it contributes. But it isn't any different from past years.

 

[MoreDifferentS]

Is it really a goalie thing? Forwards don't hit their top end production every year, and there are plenty of goalies who fulfill their expectations. I would like some kind of statistical proof that goalies are especially hard to rely on compared to other positions

I think it's more due to the margins for goaltenders being significantly thinner than it is for forwards. The difference between a .900 mediocre goalie and a .920 stud goalie is two shots over about the course of three games.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

System goalie

 

[SI90]

Shesterkin the stand alone elite goalie in todays game

He’s has a down year as well. If not for that recently hot streak his numbers were horrible. He lost the starting job for awhile to Quick.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Think Oettinger deserves this thread more than Sorokin

 

[Crow]

Think Oettinger deserves this thread more than Sorokin

I dunno I think sorokin has fallen harder. Ive never really thought oettinger was quite on his level. Oettinger had that one amazing playoffs and people lost their shit. Overall sorokin has been the better playoff goalie too.

 

[dgibb10]

Bob, Shesterkin, Vasilevskiy, Halleybuyck, Swayman, Demko, Hill….all better than Sorokin! I always thought he was a little overrated and I never buy into media hype!

Vasy has been brutal this year too

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Think Oettinger deserves this thread more than Sorokin

Oettinger has never been top 3 tho .

He was anointed after one playoff series which the Stars lost anyway

 

[Captain Mountain]

He's among the league leaders in "stolen" wins.

Islanders' D is pretty shallow and that'll lead to more variance with goaltenders performances.

At the point there isn't really a reliably elite goalie in the NHL anymore. Closest is Hellebuyck, but any goalie can shit the bed, some just do it rarely and others do it more often.