If you were the GM and had to do the 1st round draft all over again

[puck stoppa]

You're kind of proving my point here - 2/3rds of the assembled wisdom of this board were wrong on Pavelec in May of 2013. And yet this collection of assorted Jets fans could've drafted about as well as Chevy, without the millions of dollars spent on scouting and the years of experience building winners in the IHL.

And teams whiffing on high picks doesn't prove anything. The chances of it happening are greatly reduced the higher you draft - and the Jets have had the 3rd highest average draft position in the NHL from 2011-2016.

I still like what they've done, later rounds were some good picks too.

 

[Gm0ney]

Trouba was an under rated pick, not many around here had him pegged there, he was jets top 5, that to me was one of their better ones next to scheif.

How much worse off are the Jets though if they'd taken Hamilton/Forsberg instead of Scheifele/Trouba?

 

[puck stoppa]

How much worse off are the Jets though if they'd taken Hamilton/Forsberg instead of Scheifele/Trouba?

Well, I like both our guys better, but that's just me. But point is, all those d that went ahead of trouba were mostly talked about, not so much Jacob. Jets had him two or three right behind Murray, not many others did. We could've ended up with different d there, but we had trouba ahead of all others.

 

[puck stoppa]

How would you like to be caps:
Forsberg for erat

 

[Whileee]

Ditto the bolded. Everytime I go through the "if only Chevy had _____" exercise I quickly get to the realization that better sooner would have cost us most of our best prospects.

Also, the way to get better sooner often means trading your picks and prospects for "now" players to supplement your core. There are a lot of NHL teams that have done that, lacking the patience to truly draft and develop.

I'll take the occasional goofy roster decision (Stuart, Pavs) over a few years as long as the management doesn't completely misread the roster and do some unwise building around the wrong players.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

In 2011 Chevy and everybody was praising Dale Hawerchuck for giving us the heads up on Schiefele as he had coached him in his d-1 year.

Why couldn't chucky go a bit further and re come d we take a flyer on Tanner Pearson in the 7 th round in 2011 ( also coached by Hawerchuk ) . He was drafted with the last pick in the 1 st round (30) in 2012 as an overager. I wanted him to fall to the Jets pick in the 2 nd round #39 th OA. But we ended up with Sutter so it was not........ Never mind.

 

[Whileee]

You're kind of proving my point here - 2/3rds of the assembled wisdom of this board were wrong on Pavelec in May of 2013. And yet this collection of assorted Jets fans could've drafted about as well as Chevy, without the millions of dollars spent on scouting and the years of experience building winners in the IHL.

And teams whiffing on high picks doesn't prove anything. The chances of it happening are greatly reduced the higher you draft - and the Jets have had the 3rd highest average draft position in the NHL from 2011-2016.

That's not my point, actually. My point is that this board (like every other board) forgets when they were wrong, and remembers when they were right (even when they actually weren't at the time). If this board was drafting by consensus we'd have someone like Gauthier instead of Morrissey and Couturier instead of Scheifele.

This board also tends to remember when Chevy was wrong, and forget when he was right (or maybe ascribe it to "luck").

I think it goes with the territory, so no big deal, really.

 

[garret9]

I still like what they've done, later rounds were some good picks too.

I like what they've done, but if they just took the kid with the best numbers, which again isn't what they should do but an idea of a threshold expectancy of quality work, the Jets would have had Gostisbehere, Bjorkstrand, Shore, McCabe, and a bunch of probably instead of Lowry, Copp, and a bunch of probably AHLers.

Again (not for you specifically but some reading this post) I want to stress that the Jets shouldn't draft by blind numbers, and I'm not suggesting they do. However, it gives an idea of what they should be surpassing.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

That's not my point, actually. My point is that this board (like every other board) forgets when they were wrong, and remembers when they were right (even when they actually weren't at the time). If this board was drafting by consensus we'd have someone like Gauthier instead of Morrissey and Couturier instead of Scheifele.

This board also tends to remember when Chevy was wrong, and forget when he was right (or maybe ascribe it to "luck").

I think it goes with the territory, so no big deal, really.

But each of us remembers his/her own wins and forgets own losses. It is probable that each of us also believes that we are even handed in our perceptions of Chevy. I think you tend to leave out something in your assessment (JMO). When Chevy is right he doesn't gain any bonus points. He is supposed to be right and expected to be right most of the time. When he is wrong he gets penalized because .... see preceding sentence.

I also disagree with your concept of how luck plays a part (Note:a part - not the whole thing). Reaching for a pick, even if it is only a few places in the ranking and being right as in the Scheifele pick is simply being right, making a good pick. Having Connor fall into your lap is luck. It doesn't matter how smart you are you can't pick him if he is already gone. There is nothing you can do to influence the events that brought him to you. It is luck. In that case Chevy still had to be smart enough to grab the opportunity. He made the right pick so he gets credit for it but luck played a part. In that case a big part.

I think a definitive rating of Chevy as a drafter will have to wait several more years. When drafting top 10 he has done well. A bunch of fans could have done nearly as well. For drafting later the results are not yet in. I think we can safely say he has been no worse than average but we can't yet say that he has been better than average either.

The sum total of his team building has brought us an exciting collection of young players. I prefer to rate that sum total over rating each individual action and adding them up. By that method and comparing what the org had 5 years ago to what it has today how can we give him any less than an A? Analyzing each individual element he probably gets a C or C+, average or slightly better. He has made some clear mistakes along with his wins. He is not a drafting savant but he has built a very promising pool of players.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

The great thing about being a poster here is the opportunity to continuously critique Chevy and the Jets for their mistakes (yes, they make some bad ones), but conveniently forget all of the dumb ideas we have had.

Imagine if Chevy had followed the collective wisdom of this board and had drafted Gauthier in 2013. We'd still be having thread after thread castigating him for the stupidity.

By the way, in 2013 the assembled wisdom of this board had some sage advice for Chevy about what to do about the Jets goaltending situation. Now, I'm sure that everyone remembers fondly about how we are collectively so much smarter than Chevy, so let's look at the results, with the benefit of some hindsight.

Which goaltender option is best? (May 14, 2013)

View attachment 91115

To summarize:

The leading option was Pavelec and Emery/Scrivens (48.57%)
The second option was Pavelec and Montoya (27.14%)
The third option was two of Emery/Scrivens/Bernier/Someone else (24.29%)

Only you know how you voted at the time.

What exactly is your point here? That about a small number of Jets fans who don't get paid to manage the team were just as wrong about Pavelec in May 2013 as Chevy was in May 2013 and continues to be to this day in 2016?

This thread demonstrates quite clearly that most anyone could've come out of the first round with virtually the same level of talent that Chevy has. I suppose if I were someone interested in defending Chevy's honour, this realization might make me try to turn this into a thread about dubious anti-Chevy posters and how they manipulate the narrative. [mod]

 

[Whileee]

What exactly is your point here? That about a small number of Jets fans who don't get paid to manage the team were just as wrong about Pavelec in May 2013 as Chevy was in May 2013 and continues to be to this day in 2016?

This thread demonstrates quite clearly that most anyone could've come out of the first round with virtually the same level of talent that Chevy has. I suppose if I were someone interested in defending Chevy's honour, this realization might make me try to turn this into a thread about dubious anti-Chevy posters and how they manipulate the narrative. [mod]

I think you are still missing my point. Chevy's draft record has to be assessed in relation to other GMs first. In that, there is pretty wide acknowledgement outside of Jets fans that Chevy has amassed a top-end prospect list, both through drafting and trades. There are plenty other GMs who haven't drafted as well, even with equivalent or better draft positions. At the very least, he performed about as well as he could have in terms of 1st round picks, and that's usually enough.

This thread is specifically predicated on comparing Chevy's first round draft performance to posters on this board. I've merely pointed out that we would have ended up with a couple of clear downgrades (Couturier < Scheifele, Gauthier < Morrissey) if the consensus of this board had guided the 1st round picks, even though one might not get that impression from this thread so far. So, your point about most anyone being able to come out of the 1st round with the same talent as Chevy is probably not true for the consensus opinion of this board.

I'm not sure why it seems that any time someone posts anything that supports Chevy's performance it has to be personalized into phrases like "defending Chevy's honor". It has nothing to do with his "honor", but rather an assessment of his performance, in this case his 1st round picks. If you disagree with the assessment, say so and tell us all why. That's how it's supposed to work around here. In this case, if you can find evidence showing that the majority of fans posting here would have made as good or better picks than Chevy, just bring the evidence instead of the other stuff.

 

[Whileee]

But each of us remembers his/her own wins and forgets own losses. It is probable that each of us also believes that we are even handed in our perceptions of Chevy. I think you tend to leave out something in your assessment (JMO). When Chevy is right he doesn't gain any bonus points. He is supposed to be right and expected to be right most of the time. When he is wrong he gets penalized because .... see preceding sentence.

I also disagree with your concept of how luck plays a part (Note:a part - not the whole thing). Reaching for a pick, even if it is only a few places in the ranking and being right as in the Scheifele pick is simply being right, making a good pick. Having Connor fall into your lap is luck. It doesn't matter how smart you are you can't pick him if he is already gone. There is nothing you can do to influence the events that brought him to you. It is luck. In that case Chevy still had to be smart enough to grab the opportunity. He made the right pick so he gets credit for it but luck played a part. In that case a big part.

I think a definitive rating of Chevy as a drafter will have to wait several more years. When drafting top 10 he has done well. A bunch of fans could have done nearly as well. For drafting later the results are not yet in. I think we can safely say he has been no worse than average but we can't yet say that he has been better than average either.

The sum total of his team building has brought us an exciting collection of young players. I prefer to rate that sum total over rating each individual action and adding them up. By that method and comparing what the org had 5 years ago to what it has today how can we give him any less than an A? Analyzing each individual element he probably gets a C or C+, average or slightly better. He has made some clear mistakes along with his wins. He is not a drafting savant but he has built a very promising pool of players.

There's no such thing as a "drafting savant". Every GM has some black marks on their resume.

Drafting success is relative to other GMs. You can say it's "lucky" that a player dropped, but that's not different than saying it's "lucky" that Chevy wasn't as inept as other the other GMs that passed on Connor (remember, it wasn't just Boston that passed on Connor). If it's "lucky" that Chevy isn't as inept as a lot of the other GMs in the draft, then I'll take that kind of luck any day.

Personally, I think that Chevy and his scouts have been steady in the draft, without very many missteps (Sutter and maybe Stanley). In the NHL, that's probably enough to out-draft many teams. Nabbing a player like Scheifele with a pick that took a bit of inspiration and foresight can be a franchise-changing decision. You don't need to do that very often to change the fortunes of the franchise.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

I think you are still missing my point. Chevy's draft record has to be assessed in relation to other GMs first. In that, there is pretty wide acknowledgement outside of Jets fans that Chevy has amassed a top-end prospect list, both through drafting and trades. There are plenty other GMs who haven't drafted as well, even with equivalent or better draft positions. At the very least, he performed about as well as he could have in terms of 1st round picks, and that's usually enough.

Yes, well I am not going to nitpick much here. The fact that league offices are full of bumbling executives who don't have the education or business experience to operate a lemonade stand - has already been established and is a matter of public record, most recently in the leaked emails of Colin Campbell and his band of nitwits that run the league.

So if you want to say - well Chevy has not demonstrated that level of inepititude in the first round of the draft, I would agree with that wholeheartedly. TNSE seems to have a good list in the first round, particularly if we don't count the Logan Stanley pick - which I think is bad, but in the grand scheme, likely wont make a huge difference.

This thread is specifically predicated on comparing Chevy's first round draft performance to posters on this board. I've merely pointed out that we would have ended up with a couple of clear downgrades (Couturier < Scheifele, Gauthier < Morrissey) if the consensus of this board had guided the 1st round picks, even though one might not get that impression from this thread so far. So, your point about most anyone being able to come out of the 1st round with the same talent as Chevy is probably not true for the consensus opinion of this board.

This is where you lose me. I don't remember any consensus polls that had us taking Gauthier over Morrissey - although I could be mistaken. I rarely participate in the HFJ polls or put much weight into them. Like the Pavelec poll you posted earlier from May of 2013 had about 250 votes. I didn't vote in it and niether did the other 4750 HFJ members...but I find it extremely difficult to believe that a majority of posters wanted Pavelec to be the starter going into 2014. If I recall correctly, the board was demanding/expecting/hoping for him to be bought out.

In any case, as someone who is not usually on the side of the majority when it comes to evaluating the Jets and particularly Chevy, I would never be comfortable with a "consensus majority" being the determining factor of anything.

I'm not sure why it seems that any time someone posts anything that supports Chevy's performance it has to be personalized into phrases like "defending Chevy's honor". It has nothing to do with his "honor", but rather an assessment of his performance, in this case his 1st round picks. If you disagree with the assessment, say so and tell us all why. That's how it's supposed to work around here. In this case, if you can find evidence showing that the majority of fans posting here would have made as good or better picks than Chevy, just bring the evidence instead of the other stuff.

Losing me again. I posted my picks from 2011 through to 2016 and some rationale. You responded in 3 or 4 follow-up posts about Lee Stempniak and classic anti-Chevy nitpicking, fan consensus on Ondrej Pavelec from some dubious poll, how the anti-Chevy crowd is never happy and lies about our record and twists and spins the narrative. Who is bringing the other stuff again?

 

[Whileee]

Yes, well I am not going to nitpick much here. The fact that league offices are full of bumbling executives who don't have the education or business experience to operate a lemonade stand - has already been established and is a matter of public record, most recently in the leaked emails of Colin Campbell and his band of nitwits that run the league.

So if you want to say - well Chevy has not demonstrated that level of inepititude in the first round of the draft, I would agree with that wholeheartedly. TNSE seems to have a good list in the first round, particularly if we don't count the Logan Stanley pick - which I think is bad, but in the grand scheme, likely wont make a huge difference.

This is where you lose me. I don't remember any consensus polls that had us taking Gauthier over Morrissey - although I could be mistaken. I rarely participate in the HFJ polls or put much weight into them. Like the Pavelec poll you posted earlier from May of 2013 had about 250 votes. I didn't vote in it and niether did the other 4750 HFJ members...but I find it extremely difficult to believe that a majority of posters wanted Pavelec to be the starter going into 2014. If I recall correctly, the board was demanding/expecting/hoping for him to be bought out.

In any case, as someone who is not usually on the side of the majority when it comes to evaluating the Jets and particularly Chevy, I would never be comfortable with a "consensus majority" being the determining factor of anything.

Losing me again. I posted my picks from 2011 through to 2016 and some rationale. You responded in 3 or 4 follow-up posts about Lee Stempniak and classic anti-Chevy nitpicking, fan consensus on Ondrej Pavelec from some dubious poll, how the anti-Chevy crowd is never happy and lies about our record and twists and spins the narrative. Who is bringing the other stuff again?

Ummm... I just needed to go back one page to figure this out. After a couple of pages of pretty low-key discussion about the thread subject, we were presented with this from you.

Now, look at my list or the dozens of other lists on here. A blind squirrel with no scouting budget or other staff would have ended up with virtually the same pool of talented young prospects if we were drafting from the same position that Chevy has. Most of us all would've bought out Pavelec in 2013 and wouldn't have extended Stuart, Thorburn, Peluso. We probably wouldn't have ended up with Hellebuyck either....because none of us wouldve heard of him.

Like all magic, the magic of Chevy's drafting is an illusion.

This might refresh your memory about some of the sentiments around who the Jets should draft (which is exactly the subject of this thread)....

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1457525&highlight=gauthier&page=13

Some sentiment for Wennberg, but lots of support for Shinkaruk, Zadorov, Gauthier and even Zykov. The board exploded with anger and disbelief when Chevy selected Morrissey. Not many in this thread seem to remember supporting Gauthier or Shinkaruk or Zykov at the time, which is sort of my point. I guess the "blind squirrel" got luckier than posters here.

You brought up the point about Pavs in this thread, saying that the assembled wisdom of this board would have bought out Pavs in 2013. When I actually posted results of a poll about the Jets goaltending situation taken in May 2013, your response is that it didn't actually represent the views of this board, without actually providing any of your own evidence to support that.

Not much more to say, except....

 

[Gm0ney]

That's not my point, actually. My point is that this board (like every other board) forgets when they were wrong, and remembers when they were right (even when they actually weren't at the time). If this board was drafting by consensus we'd have someone like Gauthier instead of Morrissey and Couturier instead of Scheifele.

Ah. Well the Pavelec poll stuff seemed to me to be a separate sidebar to your point that we all forget our own dumb ideas. And even if that's the point you're trying to make, the Pavelec poll results undermine the idea that Chevy's done a much better job of drafting than us regular joes.

[mod]

 

[Whileee]

Ah. Well the Pavelec poll stuff seemed to me to be a separate sidebar to your point that we all forget our own dumb ideas. And even if that's the point you're trying to make, the Pavelec poll results undermine the idea that Chevy's done a much better job of drafting than us regular joes.

[mod]

A poster other than me brought in the Pavs' sidebar, presumably to bolster the credibility of this board. I brought in evidence from this board c. 2013 to illustrate that we didn't all get it right about goaltending. Leave aside Pavs, there was pretty strong sentiment that suitable potential replacements included Emery and Scrivens.

My initial commentary about this thread relates to the tendency for them to focus on opinions that in hindsight look good, leaving out the opinions that in hindsight look less insightful. So, for example, if one were to read only this thread one might come to conclusion that there wasn't a strong sentiment against Morrissey in 2013, with considerable support for picking someone like Shinkaruk, Zadorov, Zykov or Gauthier instead. That results in a somewhat skewed perspective.

On balance, I don't think that is a shortage of commentary to remind everyone of Chevy's mistakes.

 

[truck]

I like what they've done, but if they just took the kid with the best numbers, which again isn't what they should do but an idea of a threshold expectancy of quality work, the Jets would have had Gostisbehere, Bjorkstrand, Shore, McCabe, and a bunch of probably instead of Lowry, Copp, and a bunch of probably AHLers.

Again (not for you specifically but some reading this post) I want to stress that the Jets shouldn't draft by blind numbers, and I'm not suggesting they do. However, it gives an idea of what they should be surpassing.

It would he interesting to see which team has drafted closest to the numbers.

 

[garret9]

It would he interesting to see which team has drafted closest to the numbers.

Depends which numbers you are using, obviously.

The above for example was just using the best PCS (v 1.0) player who was picked within 20 spots after the Jets selection.

I know that Calgary had best PCS relative to position for drafting last year. Jets the year prior.

 

[arby18]

2011
We picked: Scheifele
Would have picked: Couturier

2012
We picked: Trouba
Would have picked: Forsberg

2013
We picked: Morrissey
Would have picked: Mantha

2014
We picked: Ehlers
Would have picked: Ehlers

2015
We picked: Connor
Would have picked: Connor

We picked: Roslovic
Would have picked: Kylington

2016
We picked: Laine
Would have picked: Laine

We picked: Stanley
Would have picked: Anybody other than Stanley (Rubtsov, Johansen & Cholowski were in my mix at 22)

 

[PhilJets]

How much worse off are the Jets though if they'd taken Hamilton/Forsberg instead of Scheifele/Trouba?

I think Jets will be thinking how to get a 1C to replace Little in the future.

Schiefele fits the JETS like a glove, Hamilton might have bolted (traded).

Value to the team, IMO Schiefele/Trouba were/are still the better picks.
Especially if Trouba signs a long term sometime in August before the World Cup.

 

[heilongjetsfan]

In 2011 Chevy and everybody was praising Dale Hawerchuck for giving us the heads up on Schiefele as he had coached him in his d-1 year.

Why couldn't chucky go a bit further and re come d we take a flyer on Tanner Pearson in the 7 th round in 2011 ( also coached by Hawerchuk ) . He was drafted with the last pick in the 1 st round (30) in 2012 as an overager. I wanted him to fall to the Jets pick in the 2 nd round #39 th OA. But we ended up with Sutter so it was not........ Never mind.

I really wanted Pearson in that draft, too. I always try to wiggle him away from the kings in any trade proposals that come up with them.

My heart sank a little when he went off the board at 30th, but the truth is he was a very different player in 10-11 than in 11-12, and he credited Scheifele's work ethic for inspiring him over the course of that season to learn as much as he could about the game and to push his fitness levels as much as possible.

I'm not sure Ducky would have recommended him at the 2011 draft.