Costs more money to keep him, especially if a strong challenger is brought in (likely making in the $2 million range if not more).
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Costs more money to keep him, especially if a strong challenger is brought in (likely making in the $2 million range if not more).
pegjets
Oh Canada
- Apr 4, 2013
- 977
- 4
One thing to consider in a buyout is it extends the effect of the contract for another 3 years, so the Jets would be hit with a $1.5M cap it in years 4,5,6 from now versus another move which might be shorter term.
The cap hit in years 4-6 isn't a worry because the team won't be close to the cap. Paying 2/3 of the value over 6 seasons vs the whole ticket over 3 seasons is a pretty easy decision if Pavelec isn't going to be a starting goaltender. It's more expensive to keep him anyway you slice it.
even then if you condense the three additional years of 1.4 (not 1.5, i believe) into the first three your looking at 2.8 per year. You can still get decent goaltending for under 1 mil, meaning it is STILL cheaper to buyout Pavelec.
Buying out Pavelec and going into free agency with ZERO experienced goaltenders is a great idea 
I think we should also trade all our draft picks for the upcoming draft to Detroit for all their picks in the 2021 draft year.
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Pavs here to stay until Hellebuyck, Hutch or Comrie are ready. Deal with it or cheer for the Leafs!
I think we should also trade all our draft picks for the upcoming draft to Detroit for all their picks in the 2021 draft year.
[mod]
Pavs here to stay until Hellebuyck, Hutch or Comrie are ready. Deal with it or cheer for the Leafs!
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StronGeer
Registered User
Like many here, I'll only lose faith if the goaltending stays status quo. I'm ok keeping Pavelec if we get someone to challenge/take his job. See: Miller, Halak etc.
Buying out Pavelec and going into free agency with ZERO experienced goaltenders is a great idea
I think we should also trade all our draft picks for the upcoming draft to Detroit for all their picks in the 2021 draft year.
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Pavs here to stay until Hellebuyck, Hutch or Comrie are ready. Deal with it or cheer for the Leafs!
Who cares if a goalie has experience if he is useless?
Should we keep Setoguchi until we find another 3rd line right winger?
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Buying out Pavelec and going into free agency with ZERO experienced goaltenders is a great idea
I think we should also trade all our draft picks for the upcoming draft to Detroit for all their picks in the 2021 draft year.
[mod]
Pavs here to stay until Hellebuyck, Hutch or Comrie are ready. Deal with it or cheer for the Leafs!
Ok. should we pay 3.9 million for a goaltender that we know is garbage, or should we pay 2 million for a goaltender that may be betterr but at wost is equally garbage?
jesus. I don't understand this logic. If your cars broken do you fix it? or do you just keep it around for the sake of having a broken car?
you want an experienced ****** goaltender? buyout pavelect and sign nabokov for 600k. there. save yourself 1.4 mil. problem solved.
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StronGeer
Registered User
That depends. How many terrible years as a starting goaltender does the broken car have? Did it make many highlight reel saves?
Watched the Phx Pitt game tonight. I would realllly like to see Greiss in a Jets uni next season
Two totally different options. If I was Chevy I'd be trying to change the goaltending situation, but I wouldn't bother insulting a fellow GM's intelligence by trying to trade Pavelec. The phone call would be worthy of a Bob Newhart comedy skit.
Because of his back-loaded contract, Pavelec earns $4.2 million per, for the next 3 years. The most salary we can take back in a trade is 50%, so any team that gets Pavelec from us will pay him AT LEAST $2.1 million per for the next 3 years. If I was an opposing GM, I'd sooner wait till free agency time, and offer Montoya $2.1 million per year as a UFA. If the Jets extend him before UFA time, that'll mean that one of Hutchinson or Pasquale will be on the waiver-wire in September. Pavelec is untradeable.
Lose all hope? No. Be more disappointed, absolutely...
Chevy has done well with drafting in the first round, he's not all bad!
I'd like to see Pavelec gone though and grab someone in FA. Or at least someone to challenge him for the position. I like Montoya, but he's not the answer to our goal tending in my opinion. He's a great back up though.
Chevy has done well with drafting in the first round, he's not all bad!
I'd like to see Pavelec gone though and grab someone in FA. Or at least someone to challenge him for the position. I like Montoya, but he's not the answer to our goal tending in my opinion. He's a great back up though.
theamazingchris
Registered User
The problems on this team aren't particularly difficult to see. Lack of depth and poor goaltending. If Chevy doesn't at least attempt to make changes to address both of these areas he either a) doesn't know that they are the problem or b) can't make the changes that need to be made.
Either way, I'm not feeling too confident. My confidence doesn't hinge on a buyout per se, but it does hinge on at least changing our goalie picture in some significant fashion and doing something about our depth, both on forward and defence. If not, I'll join the #firechevy crowd.
Either way, I'm not feeling too confident. My confidence doesn't hinge on a buyout per se, but it does hinge on at least changing our goalie picture in some significant fashion and doing something about our depth, both on forward and defence. If not, I'll join the #firechevy crowd.
tbcwpg
Moderator
- Jan 25, 2011
- 16,194
- 19,055
The logic is to not go into July with two goalies who haven't played a minute of NHL hockey between them. If we're using the broken car analogy, Pavelec is like the car that still runs, just not very well. In that scenario, then I would rather keep that car around since I know it will at least work a little bit, until I get a new one, rather than get rid of it and hope I can find a new one that's worthwhile.
Puckatron 3000
Glitchy Prototype
That was enlightening.
Most people posted "fair" to "AWESOME!" in response to the deal.
I guess hindsight is 20/20. But that thread surprises the hell out of me. His sv% sucked, and wasn't trending up. I really don't understand what people were thinking. It's an obvious case of failed perception, and a testament to statistical analysis - the AIC article How Much Does Ondrej Pavelec Deserve? (June 21, 2012) - concluded "not much".
Still, given the general excitement around Pavs' contract at the time, it's hard to fault Chevy quite as much as we have been. At the very least, whatever fooled him seemed to fool almost everyone else too. (Again, weird.)
Regardless, the problem remains. Pavelec is not a starting goaltender. The past is the past, but we/Chevy need a new solution going forward.
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I won't be happy about it, but that alone won't let me lose faith.
For instance, if he keeps Pavelec, but trades Buff for younger player(s) with good potential, gets a backup that we will actually play, and secures a FA that can actually help the team (top 6 er, top 4 d) then I will feel like he still has hope.
If he sits on his hands and stays with his draft and develop line I will know he's out of his depth. There is more to being a GM than that and he HAS to recognize his core is aging.
For instance, if he keeps Pavelec, but trades Buff for younger player(s) with good potential, gets a backup that we will actually play, and secures a FA that can actually help the team (top 6 er, top 4 d) then I will feel like he still has hope.
If he sits on his hands and stays with his draft and develop line I will know he's out of his depth. There is more to being a GM than that and he HAS to recognize his core is aging.
The problem with that logic is that it assumes a shortage of goalies at or above Pavelec's level. The compliance buyout window closes June 26, so if you go with keep Pavelec until you replace him, you're going to end up holding the bag of ****, his contract.
tbcwpg
Moderator
- Jan 25, 2011
- 16,194
- 19,055
It's a big risk. If we can't address the problem prior to the draft then I think you almost have to hold on to him.
McDrailers
Registered User
My view on all this is if someone toke Devan Dubnyk. Someone will take Pavelic. All-be-it you probably won't get a lot back. (I'm impressed with Hendricks FWIW). But you still rid yourself of a bad goaltender. Theres going to be some guys looking for a new job soon. Guys like Neuvirth. Halak. Cam Ward. Josh Harding/Nik Backstom/Bryzastor. Brian Elliot/James Reimer. Martin Broduer
All these names are going to be available. The thing is finding the right fit for Winnipeg. Personally, I'd love to see Neuvirth/Ward/Backstrom/Halak. In order from best fit to worse
All these names are going to be available. The thing is finding the right fit for Winnipeg. Personally, I'd love to see Neuvirth/Ward/Backstrom/Halak. In order from best fit to worse
tbcwpg
Moderator
- Jan 25, 2011
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Neuvirth is not good enough, Ward has been terrible for 2 and a half years (last week's game was an anomaly for him recently), Backstrom is old and prone to injury. I'd say Halak is the BEST fit of the four goalies, while Neuvirth is more of the same of what we're getting now.
Dubnyk does not have the same contract as Pavelec, and is not really any worse than him, so getting rid of him was much easier than Pavelec.
Lawless suggested maybe a Pavelec for Cam Ward trade. If Carolina are satisfied with Khudobin as their #1 going forward then they have a lot invested in Cam Ward. This would have to be a salary dump by Carolina. He's going to cost them $6.7 and $6.8 in the next two seasons, but Pavs is signed for one additional year.
Personally, I don't see Carolina doing that unless they are really in a cash/cap crunch.
Personally, I don't see Carolina doing that unless they are really in a cash/cap crunch.
McDrailers
Registered User
As it stands now yes, Dubynk has a cap hit of 900k. When he was traded to the Preds he had a cap hit of 3.5 and the oil retained salary. So Pavelic has a 3.9 cap hit. Obviously you'd have to retain some cap. But if someone will take Dubynk after his abysmal season at 1.75+ then someone will take Pav and 2 mill. 2 mill for a backup capable of stealing games isn't great. But with the cap going up it won't be that bad.
I don't find Halak to be all that good TBH. Inconsistent, injury prone and just hasn't been able to win THAT game since the MTL run a few years back. At least with Neuvirth he has the age/potential to break out of this funk
Hank Chinaski
Registered User
Buying out Pavelec and going into free agency with ZERO experienced goaltenders is a great idea
I think we should also trade all our draft picks for the upcoming draft to Detroit for all their picks in the 2021 draft year.
[mod]
Pavs here to stay until Hellebuyck, Hutch or Comrie are ready. Deal with it or cheer for the Leafs!
Here:
http://capgeek.com/ufa-finder/?position_id=G
Pick any goalie off that list (we can exclude Brodeur, Giggy is probably done as well). Tell me what you think the Jets would sign them for in dollars and term. Now - factoring in EVERYTHING, so age, salary, performance - tell me how that would be a step back from Ondrej Pavelec.
Go.
tbcwpg
Moderator
- Jan 25, 2011
- 16,194
- 19,055
It's the length of contract when it comes to Dubnyk. He's a UFA after this season. Pavelec is signed to 2016-17. That's where the contract comes in. The cap hit wasn't something I was thinking of necessarily.
Neuvirth and Pavelec are both 26 (Neuvirth just turned 26). Halak is 28. Their ages aren't that much different. If Pavelec "is what we think he is", than so is Neuvirth - a .911 goalie in the NHL. And Neuvirth has failed in the playoffs just as much as Halak has, maybe more.
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