If we keep Pavelec, will you lose all hope for Chevy?

[White Out 403*]

Straight forward question. If we don't buy out Pavelec this off season, where will you sit with chevy? Will you maintain trust and faith in him or will you be ready to throw your hands up in the air out of frustration? Or does your turning point for this team and GM rest in how our late round picks develop over the next 2 seasons?

The more that this season transpired I admit I become more and frustrated with the direction of this team, but more so with the misguided fan and media trust. Everyone is so fixated on the slow rebuild mantra they haven't stopped to consider how Chevy has done in all roles of as GM. An NHL GM has to:

1) Draft well
2) Win trades
3) Play the waiver wire well
4) Sign free agents and RFA's well

Chevy has drafted well is something the media and fans tell us. What they wont tell us is that when TNSE announced we were getting Atlanta instead of Phoenix everyone was convinced we would have a better team because of our young pieces. Atlanta drafted mostly well in the 1st round and made some slick trades for Ladd and Buff. Phoenix, it was said, had their day in the playoffs and would not achieve the greatness we would and could with our core.

Whats my point? My point is that draft prospects are all opinions. You dont know what you have until you get the product on the ice. Bad teams draft bad in the 1st round. Teams that fail to make the playoffs but have a sniff like us do well in the 1st round but not elsewhere in the later rounds. And teams like Calgary and Edmonton wind up where they are by drafting bad even in the 1st round

So drafting Trouba and Scheifeille is all well and good but your supposed to get good players in the top half of the 1st round. That's nothing special. We don't know what Chevy has done in the drafting department until Petan O'Dell Comrie etc etc etc all prove something. Until we draft good beyond round 1, it's all speculation. No matter how blue in the face someone yells about chevys amazing drafting.

Has chevy won trades? I dunno, maybe the Frolik deal? Seto was a total bust. Otherwise chevy has basically traded small pieces for other small pieces. He's not a minus here, he's an even at best. No impact made.

Has he played the waiver wire well? Again Ill say no real impact was made here. Waiver wires are a tough place to build a team, and he hasn't signed anyone off the waiver wire who came in here and just blew us away.

Player signings from RFA's and UFA's ill handle in 2 seperate ways. For UFA's I'd say Chevy is a huge minus. His one big signature signing is... wait for it... Olli Jokinen. He's a giant fart someone ripped and then it's gone in a few seconds. He can have such huge impact then he just... disappears like a fart in the wind. Chevy has made no positive impact on this team with UFA signings. Zero. Zilch.

RFA's is the interesting one. he's signed our young guys to very affordable deal,s however, they're all tied down by NMC's. Despite what some posters will tell you, these deals are not trade friendly. They have a no movement clause which means if the player is comfortable they aren't leaving. It also means they can dictate the trade to their terms like Iginla and hamstring us. And let's not forget, the biggest debacle of them all, Ondrej Pavelec. This career and life long loser was given a huge extension.

Sorry for the rant. Just wanted to start a real dialogue about our GM that isn't instantly turned into a stupid argument that sounds like this:
"Chevy hasnt done anything"
"Well, he drafted well!"
"so what?!"
"YOU WANT RESULTS TOO FAST YOU HAVE NO PATIENCE!111"

Click to read more...

 

[truck]

I won't care about keeping Pav if they add Miller, Hiller or Halak.

...but more of the same would make me lose some faith.

 

[wpgsilver]

I won't be happy. But I won't lose faith, I'll feel he's making a mistake.
If he's not bought out it could be because TNSE doesn't feel it can/should pay a player to go away.
To some extent Pavs has us between a rock and a hard place.

 

[jamiebez]

I need another option: what if he keeps Pavs and brings in another "#1A" like Reimer?

Because I think that's what will happen

If it does, he gets another "meh" from me.

 

[larmex99]

Not a deal breaker for me. It will, however, define for me how Jets management will handle course corrections in the future. Denial is a river in North Africa, not a strategy for success in winning the Stanley Cup.

 

[seasontixholder*]

I'm still pissed he did nothing at the trade deadline. Signed Stu. Big deal.

 

[cbcwpg]

Hard for me to say until I know the answer to one question...

Has Chevy been trying to trade Pavs?

If Chevy has been calling every other team in the league trying to trade Pavs and has just not been able to AND buys him out this summer... than I still have faith. But... if Chevy has been trying to trade Pavs, has found out he is untradable, and does not buy him out... than I have no faith in his direction.

As well... if Chevy has not been trying to trade Pavs or change the goaltending situation.... then all hope is lost because Chevy is blind to bad play and will never admit to making a mistake. " Dammit... that square peg is going to fit in that round hole because I said so "

Wordy I know.. but basically...

If Pavs is still here next season as the designated #1 goalie.... the next move I want is to trade GMs.

 

[Grind]

i said yes, it would ruin my opinion of him, but that's not accurate.

I mean, he could keep Pavelec, swing some major wins, and have 3 of his draft picks make their way onto the roster, making the team a legitimate playoff contender in spite of it's goaltending ( a la pittsburgh/flyers)....but lets just say that's not very likely.

I will have a very hard time supporting this team for 3 years if they don't buy him out/trade him. Even the bringing in a "1a" situation to play with him doesn't make sense. you can get better performance FROM A BACKUP GOALTENDER for less if you buy him out and sign the backup.

Reimer + pavs buyout + different backup = cheaper + better then Reimer + Pavs

 

[Hank Chinaski]

I won't be happy. But I won't lose faith, I'll feel he's making a mistake.
If he's not bought out it could be because TNSE doesn't feel it can/should pay a player to go away.
To some extent Pavs has us between a rock and a hard place.

I think that's a different case altogether.

It's interesting how 'TNSE' often gets used interchangeably to describe the entire Jets operation, both the hockey and business side. My personal opinion is that the people who control the purse strings (Chipman, Ludlow, Thomson, etc.) should NEVER interfere with hockey ops decisions.

They can state to Cheveldayoff that they don't want player costs exceeding a given amount for a particular year, and that's fine. What they absolutely shouldn't be doing is saying that they won't buy a player out on principle.

Not that the details would ever come out, but I would be so disappointed to hear that a buyout decision was vetoed by upper management.

 

[ajmidd12]

You know (on topic) while I tend to tune out the big man Gary Lawless his discussion about Pavalec was worth talking about. Gary suggested there may be opportunity to swap goalies with Carolina. I wouldn't mind seeing Cam Ward in between the pipes for us.

Reason he thought this was a viable option, Carolina needs to dump salary for next season as they have to pay for some of their names. Ward is a $6M/season cap hit.

Ward / Montoya as our goaltending force looks great to me!

I like Pavalec, unfortunately he doesn't seem to be showing signs of improvement. Wondering if that has to do with Flaherty as the goalie coach.

 

[Gm0ney]

Well, I don't expect them to buy Pavelec out, so I won't be surprised if they don't.

IMO, Chevy has made 1 good trade for a player with modest impact (Frolik). Our D is worse, our forwards are marginally improved. Goaltending sucks, as ever. The team will end up approximately where it has since 2010-11 - and so it should, because they've been treading water for 3 years.

Drafting might be the area the GM has the least impact. There are a dozen scouts providing input into the process...the GM makes the ultimate decision, but if you think Chevy himself looked at all his scouts' reports in 2012 and put his finger on the name Jacob Trouba and said "This is our pick" then you're fantasizing. The scouts told him that Trouba was the 3rd best player in that draft...he didn't tell them.

Anyway...we'll see what he does this off-season, but AFIAC he's basically starting from square-1 here.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Lose trust.
Although (as others have pointed out) to me it's more a question of whether Pavs will be the primary goalie or not.

 

[garret9]

IMO, one decision does not make an opinion on a GM for me, but rather it is the aggregate of decisions.

That said, I would add it to the "bad decision pile".

 

[Hank Chinaski]

Lose trust.
Although (as others have pointed out) to me it's more a question of whether Pavs will be the primary goalie or not.

Then we'll have a backup goalie taking up $3.9M worth of cap space for the next three season.

Buyout or trade is the only thing that really makes sense from my perspective.

 

[buggs]

I suspect I'm simply too patient in the sense that Chevy and TNSE were up front with what they were going to do - take some time to evaluate the group they have. I think that should have been completed last year after the season, regardless of the lockout. You've had two seasons to evaluate the group so something needs to happen. And now a third with only limited improvement in the group's performance.

I enjoyed the early Maurice-era success but if you put a dress on a pig it's still a pig. There are serious deficiencies with this group on the whole. I think for the first time I agreed with a Puck Daddy (Ryan Lambert in this instance who I really get aggravated reading on most occasions) assessment of the Jets and he basically nailed all the stuff that's been suggested here (either was reading here or it's really obvious to those without a vested interest in the Jets).
That article referenced:
goaltending
possession
weak bottom six
Noel as a coach
poor drafting

Any of that sound familiar?

In order, goaltending needs to be addressed. They don't need to state anything publicly and they are following the course I would expect in supporting their players in the media. But it's a problem. Pavelec is clearly not the answer and it's quite unlikely that Montoya is, though he continues to largely outplay Pavs (he's laid out a stinker or two). The answer isn't in house yet and we need to bridge it out to the arrival of Hutchinson/Hellebuyck/Comrie/Kasdorf. Who that is I don't know, but the Jets need to do something - Ward/Halak/Elliott (not Reimer) as a bridge until the young guys are ready?

Possession. Well, that's a little outside my wheelhouse in terms of how to address beyond having consistent lines and better players. I still think we play to hard and fast with line shuffles and chemistry suffers for it, but I readily admit I know little.

Weak bottom six? Yeah, we should be thrilled to have Frolik down there. That's what a talented team used him for and they won a cup. That we're utilizing him on our top two lines is a pretty strong statement about our depth. Make no mistake, I like Frolik an awful lot and hope we sign him for 3-4 years as I think he's an excellent addition. But I think TNSE is kind of looking at it the wrong way - by this I mean they likely can't be both successful and a mid-cap team as they're potentially going to have to be willing to overpay some guys for the third line. And I don't mean the Jokinen-Setoguchi types. They're paying those guys as second liners and they're playing third. I think they need to re-adjust expectations and pay their third liners second line rates to get better players. I'd be fine with a Halischuk-Slater-Peluso fourth line but we need an entire line to fill out our roster - three players worth. Two if you can fit O'Dell as a third line center going forward. Those are big holes to fill because realistically we should preferentially drop Frolik to the third line meaning we're missing a top six winger.

Noel was not the answer. I'm just not convinced that Maurice is either. I'm happier with him but it will be interesting to see the full slate of statistics at the end of his "half" of the year and how different they are from Noel's. How much of Noel's losing record was poor puck luck and how much of Maurice's is good puck luck?

Poor drafting? As Resurrection says, you should be getting a player out of a top ten pick. What about the other guys? I think we'll get one or two of our goalies through. I think Lowry and Kosmachuk will play. I consider Petan a bit of a wild card though I'm very hopeful. I really think it is too early to judge Chevy on his drafting at this point as we're not following the Atlanta model of dumping them into the league right away. Chevy's had three years - good drafting would put two players per draft into the league as regulars, yes? I think he'll hit that and possibly exceed by a little. Lipon, Kichton, Copp? Any of those making it would push it a little over the top.

tl:dr again, shouldn't post during lunch.

Won't lose all faith if no major moves go forward this summer, but will seriously question the approach. You can't be completely stagnant and you have to win trades that involve more than just draft picks. Some guys need to be moved and several pieces (#2 LHD, top six winger, third line winger, goaltender) need to be acquired from somewhere other than the waiver wire.

 

[castle]

I need another option: what if he keeps Pavs and brings in another "#1A" like Reimer?

Because I think that's what will happen

If it does, he gets another "meh" from me.

I must have missed something. Who's the #1A right now? I thought the Jets only had #2s. Or maybe a #3 as well.

 

[Puckatron 3000]

Then we'll have a backup goalie taking up $3.9M worth of cap space for the next three season.

Buyout or trade is the only thing that really makes sense from my perspective.

Yep, I get that.

I just don't follow the business side of things closely enough to demand a trade/buyout rather than a backup scenario. I try not to jump on a bandwagon unless I understand where it's going.

Regardless, as long we have a good starter, I'm cool.

 

[Hollywood3]

...

An NHL GM has to:

1) Draft well
2) Win trades
3) Play the waiver wire well
4) Sign free agents and RFA's well

...

#1 - Drafting seems pretty good. Trouba and Scheifele were not consensus picks and yet the Jets spotted them, Time will tell re #2-#7 picks, which is where teams get their depth.

#2 - Trades have been simply drafts for players so no way to tell.

#3 - Waiver wire has worked well. But it shows how weak the depth was when so many cast-offs make the line-up.

#4 - Signing UFAs and RFAs has been better than average so far. Only the Pavelec contract cannot be moved.

 

[tbcwpg]

Slight correction: O'Dell was not drafted by Chevy.

I think too many people take the all or nothing approach with the Pavelec situation. If the option of keeping him and adding another goalie to play in tandem is more attractive than buying him out and having to scramble for two goaltenders next summer, than I would call it a win if the position is improved overall. I don't see the need to buy him out no matter what. If he can be moved (and who's to say that Chevy hasn't worked the phones on him), then move him. The buyout should be the last resort here, not the first option.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

After three years, Chevys body of work as a GM is far too thin. The best player for player trades make both teams better, but I can't recall him even making one. At the trade deadline this year while in the playoff hunt he pulled the trigger on a whopper - signing Mark Stuart which could have been done any other day of the week/month/year. Didn't sell because the prices were too low, and didn't buy because the prices were what, too high? Doesn't square.

At the end of the year, or in this case 3 years, the stat that counts is in the points column. Looking at the remaining schedule, I'd say this year is looking like a step backwards after treading water between years one and two. That coupled with the fact that we went the whole year with no player moves (not counting up and down from the minors) means that he isn't doing a GM's job.

But I think that he is safe for many years to come so we had better hope that winnipeg's draft and develop program is light years ahead of the rest of the league otherwise it will be 2022 before playoff bound.

 

[truck]

After three years, Chevys body of work as a GM is far too thin. The best player for player trades make both teams better, but I can't recall him even making one. At the trade deadline this year while in the playoff hunt he pulled the trigger on a whopper - signing Mark Stuart which could have been done any other day of the week/month/year. Didn't sell because the prices were too low, and didn't buy because the prices were what, too high? Doesn't square.

At the end of the year, or in this case 3 years, the stat that counts is in the points column. Looking at the remaining schedule, I'd say this year is looking like a step backwards after treading water between years one and two. That coupled with the fact that we went the whole year with no player moves (not counting up and down from the minors) means that he isn't doing a GM's job.

But I think that he is safe for many years to come so we had better hope that winnipeg's draft and develop program is light years ahead of the rest of the league otherwise it will be 2022 before playoff bound.

Chevy has not made an NHL player for NHL player trade as of yet.

The Jets are the only that that hasn't made such a trade within the last three seasons.

 

[Gm0ney]

After three years, Chevys body of work as a GM is far too thin. The best player for player trades make both teams better, but I can't recall him even making one. At the trade deadline this year while in the playoff hunt he pulled the trigger on a whopper - signing Mark Stuart which could have been done any other day of the week/month/year. Didn't sell because the prices were too low, and didn't buy because the prices were what, too high? Doesn't square.

At the end of the year, or in this case 3 years, the stat that counts is in the points column. Looking at the remaining schedule, I'd say this year is looking like a step backwards after treading water between years one and two. That coupled with the fact that we went the whole year with no player moves (not counting up and down from the minors) means that he isn't doing a GM's job.

But I think that he is safe for many years to come so we had better hope that winnipeg's draft and develop program is light years ahead of the rest of the league otherwise it will be 2022 before playoff bound.

Nobody's done less to improve a team that has obvious and glaring deficiencies. 3 prime years of Ladd, Little, Wheeler, Byfuglien and Enstrom have been wasted while Chevy was busy "evaluating", shuffling bottom-6 deck chairs and "stocking the cupboards". As someone put it the other day: when the Thrashers got here, their only close-to-NHL-ready prospects were Cormier, Postma, Redmond and Machacek - and today it's Postma, O'Dell, Cormier, and Redmond.

 

[Guerzy]

I just want to see him bring in viable competition. I don't expect Pavelec to be bought out, but I do expect Chevy to bring in a goaltender who can potentially be a no. 1.

I also want to see Chevy address other areas that are blatantly obvious in that they need addressed in order for this group to take the next step. This offseason is a big on, in my opinion.

 

[truck]

I just want to see him bring in viable competition. I don't expect Pavelec to be bought out, but I do expect Chevy to bring in a goaltender who can potentially be a no. 1.

I also want to see Chevy address other areas that are blatantly obvious in that they need addressed in order for this group to take the next step. This offseason is a big on, in my opinion.

What if Monty continues to play well?

He has outplayed Pavelec this season.

Can Chevy simply stick with the lesser of his two tenders (even if the difference is marginal) and add another? Unless he lands one of the big guns or Elliott odds are Pav goes into next season as the "starter".

 

[Guerzy]

What if Monty continues to play well?

He has outplayed Pavelec this season.

Can Chevy simply stick with the lesser of his two tenders (even if the difference is marginal) and add another? Unless he lands one of the big guns or Elliott odds are Pav goes into next season as the "starter".

I'm not sure. We've seen Monty, but does Chevy feel he can contend and be a no. 1? My hat is off to Monty for his play this season but in the grand scheme of things, I doubt he's a no. 1. I have a feeling we go into next season with Pavs. Possibly Monty too. Same tandem.