Interesting. So you see the same sort of split in opinion over Pavelec that persists to this day, but the percentages have flipped...and then some.
I like the comment about those hacks over at AIH...
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Interesting. So you see the same sort of split in opinion over Pavelec that persists to this day, but the percentages have flipped...and then some.
I like the comment about those hacks over at AIH...
Positive
Enjoy your flight
You could argue, though the odds of a 7th or 8th seeded team having a deep run in the playoffs are slim, the odds of a 4th or 5th round pick developing into good NHL-caliber players is also pretty slim. There was an old study that theorized that 65% of 1st rounders might make the NHL, 25% of 2nd rounders, and 12% of third-rounders. 4th and 5th round is anyone's guess.
Anyways, the SCF finalists in recent years, who won, and how they were seeded going into the playoffs:
Year: Stanley Cup Finalists
2013: (1) CHI over (4) BOS
2012: (8) LAK over (6) NJD
2011: (3) BOS over (1) VAN
2010: (2) CHI over (7) PHI
2009: (4) PIT over (2) DET
2008: (1) DET over (2) PIT
2007: (2) ANA over (4) OTT
2006: (2) CAR over (8) EDM
2004: (1) TBL over (6) CGY
2003: (2) NJD over (7) ANA
2002: (1) DET over (3) CAR
2001: (1) COL over (1) NJD
2000: (4) NJD over (2) DAL
1999: (1) DAL over (7) BUF
1998: (2) DET over (4) WAS
1997: (3) DET over (2) PHI
1996: (2) COL over (4) FLA
1995: (5) NJD over (1) DET
1994: (1) NYR over (7) VAN
The last 19 years, number of times the top seed of a conference has won the cup:
1: 7
2: 6
3: 2
4: 2
5: 1
6: 0
7: 0
8: 1
Anyways, not great odds either way. But I'd have more fun with the city going bonkers for a week than with watching a 4th pick develop, IMHO.
Hank Chinaski
Registered User
Hahaha.
Now I know what those insufferable indie-rock snobs feel like when they look back at "Favorite Band: Nickelback" from Grade 10.
Hahaha.
Now I know what those insufferable indie-rock snobs feel like when they look back at "Favorite Band: Nickelback" from Grade 10.
I tried so hard not to do this...
I really tried to muster some self-control...
But...
One of their guys is on Twitter saying it would have been smarter to make a play for Bobrovsky, as a "cheaper, comparable talent".
Guess he's right about the cheaper part.
Hank Chinaski
Registered User
Thanks Silver. 
I don't think I ever typed it up here (thankfully), but my favourite wrong prediction was in 2006, when I told my Blackhawks fan friend that Toews would top out as a #2C.
I don't think I ever typed it up here (thankfully), but my favourite wrong prediction was in 2006, when I told my Blackhawks fan friend that Toews would top out as a #2C.
Thanks Silver.
I don't think I ever typed it up here (thankfully), but my favourite wrong prediction was in 2006, when I told my Blackhawks fan friend that Toews would top out as a #2C.
Well I'm glad you typed it here now... and book marked!
JC Numminen
#goldrush
I wasn't a member here at the time, but I liked the deal as well. Felt it was fair and Pavs had potential to be a top league starter.
On to the OP:
I said I would lose all faith. He has had 3 years to show us he is a NHL starter worth that kind of cash, and he seems to have just gotten worse. If he is a member of this team in 6 months, I will feel management is blind to his play. Or that they are just way to patient and afraid to make a big move.
If we can't make a trade, buy him out. I am sure we can find SOMEONE, even if he is just as skilled as Pavelec, who is cheaper, and on a shorter contract.
truck
Registered User
I believe my first HF post came in that thread.Interesting. So you see the same sort of split in opinion over Pavelec that persists to this day, but the percentages have flipped...and then some.
I like the comment about those hacks over at AIH...
That was my genesis!!
Lol. Looking back there were some harsh words from Huffer, but now we are HF like besties.
Damn Ben. Damn Dan too. Damn them to hell for not liking Ondrej Pavelec or Lukas Sutter.
My thoughts on the possibility of Pav signing for 4MM are in the comment sections here:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012...-is-seeking-a-multi-year-4m-yr-deal#105671665
and here:
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2012...-does-ondrej-pavelec-deserve-hint-not-4m-year
My opinion on him hasn't changed much, apart from my little bit of optimism eroding.
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CaptainChef
Registered User
Thanks. I think we will agree to disagree on the value of simply getting into the playoffs vs the long-term value of stocking up on any and all opportunities to load up on draft picks. I think as others have pointed out that Chevy preaches patience and building through the draft, yet he contradicts that by failing to load up on draft picks when the opportunity presents itself.
He can rectify all or most of these bad feelings by making a move or two this summer, starting with the goalie situation. Basically, if he doesn't make any attempt to fix our starter goalie vacuum this summer, he'll be up against fan/public opinion big time.
Well, we might as well not bother even making the playoffs if we don't finish at least 4th seed in the Conference.
Evil Little
Registered User
- Jan 22, 2014
- 6,311
- 2,739
Could the time travellers please use spoiler alerts? Those of us trying to discuss possibilities on a discussion board would appreciate continuing to do so without omniscient narrators telling us we're stupid for considering various options.
CorgisPer60
Barking at the net
Buying out Pavelec requires 2 things:
1) Chevy admitting he made a mistake.
2) Having an owner realise that mistake and be willing to pay for it.
I think both are very possible.
1) Chevy admitting he made a mistake.
2) Having an owner realise that mistake and be willing to pay for it.
I think both are very possible.
DarthMonty
F*** CANCER
I voted "lose my trust right away", but that doesn't accurately portray how I'll feel - I won't lose all my trust right away, but a big portion of it will be eroded if the goalie situation remains status quo.
I realize that the Jets are a top 4 RHD, minimum two bottom six and at least one top six player away from being a real contender, but the biggest hole is the one between the pipes. We have three years of stats and comparisons and "fancy stats" in addition to our own "eye tests" to know that Pavelec is not a legitimate starting goaltender in the NHL. Period. A NHL average goaltender would have given the Jets the playoffs this year, and almost certainly last season. Add to that the argument that buying him out and signing an average goaltender would be a financially good move, and that has put me solidly in the anti-Pavs camp.
As to all the other perceived faults of the GM, I'm willing to give him one more complete calendar year to effect some roster changes, whether through trades, UFA signings, brilliant waiver wire pick-ups, ninja like drafting and development, anything, I suppose. As long as the known and identified short-comings are dealt with in a logical and timely manner, I will retain some patience.
We need to see progress, and by this time next year, a playoff berth.
I realize that the Jets are a top 4 RHD, minimum two bottom six and at least one top six player away from being a real contender, but the biggest hole is the one between the pipes. We have three years of stats and comparisons and "fancy stats" in addition to our own "eye tests" to know that Pavelec is not a legitimate starting goaltender in the NHL. Period. A NHL average goaltender would have given the Jets the playoffs this year, and almost certainly last season. Add to that the argument that buying him out and signing an average goaltender would be a financially good move, and that has put me solidly in the anti-Pavs camp.
As to all the other perceived faults of the GM, I'm willing to give him one more complete calendar year to effect some roster changes, whether through trades, UFA signings, brilliant waiver wire pick-ups, ninja like drafting and development, anything, I suppose. As long as the known and identified short-comings are dealt with in a logical and timely manner, I will retain some patience.
We need to see progress, and by this time next year, a playoff berth.
irunthepeg
Board man gets paid
If they can't analyze the last 3 years and realize that with even average goaltending this team would have had at least one playoff berth, if not more, then the people making this decision are incompetent.
I mean, even with Al Montoya in goal for 2 weeks (and while losing games) this team is climbing power rankings that are compiled statistically, that's how poor Pavelec has been.
If it is some kind of worry about optics or honour that makes the decision on not moving on from a deficient player, especially given the opportunity of the compliance buyout, that is just as worrisome IMO.
I mean, even with Al Montoya in goal for 2 weeks (and while losing games) this team is climbing power rankings that are compiled statistically, that's how poor Pavelec has been.
If it is some kind of worry about optics or honour that makes the decision on not moving on from a deficient player, especially given the opportunity of the compliance buyout, that is just as worrisome IMO.
If Chevy could
KCjetsfan
Registered User
reading that thread now is kind of... i don't know... seems like a lot of us were still in the honeymoon phase.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
From that I get:
* A lot of people didn't like AIH because of one opinion piece by Ryan re: Trouba where in the comments section not all the AIH authors agreed with him (hi Huffer)
* People thought the notion of Bobrovsky likely being better than Pavelec as crazy (hi Hank)
* Only one really thought that Pavelec was not going to be better than the numbers (hi supahdupah)
AIH won this battle.
From that I get:
* A lot of people didn't like AIH because of one opinion piece by Ryan re: Trouba where in the comments section not all the AIH authors agreed with him (hi Huffer)
* People thought the notion of Bobrovsky likely being better than Pavelec as crazy (hi Hank)
* Only one really thought that Pavelec was not going to be better than the numbers (hi supahdupah)
AIH won this battle.
well lets just say i'm now happy i had the good sense to through a couple "IF's" in there...
upon further reading.... i wasn't Terribly off
except i'd call that contract horrible. I'd also defend myself by not including a stipulation on regressing
EDIT 2: golly i'm having some masochistic fun here.
#thingsiwouldneversaynow
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this offseasons approach to the goaltending situation will weigh a lot of my opinion of chevy
3 years of missing the playoffs without any form of "rebuild" is pretty rough, regardless of what the cupboards looked like IMO. If goaltending can get us over the hump he needs to do something
- either he failed to acquire the RIGHT pieces to take this core group to the next level or....
- overvalued some of the talent he had in the beginning
- or actually planned on not being that good while we developed players which IMO is a huge waste of our core players prime years and we should have traded pieces for future assets sooner
3 years of missing the playoffs without any form of "rebuild" is pretty rough, regardless of what the cupboards looked like IMO. If goaltending can get us over the hump he needs to do something
- either he failed to acquire the RIGHT pieces to take this core group to the next level or....
- overvalued some of the talent he had in the beginning
- or actually planned on not being that good while we developed players which IMO is a huge waste of our core players prime years and we should have traded pieces for future assets sooner
pegjets
Oh Canada
- Apr 4, 2013
- 977
- 4
I didn't vote cause I thought the options were a little too strong.
I don't expect Pavelec to be bought out because my gut feeling is that it isn't only Chevy's call and ownership won't like the idea. The Jets aren't rolling in dough and I just don't see it happening.
However, if Montoya isn't upgraded in the off-season, and the approach isn't to play another goaltender more, then I will lose a lot of faith.
I think goaltending is our #1 problem (we do have other problems, and this is #1) and 3 years is enough time to evaluate this problem.
I don't expect Pavelec to be bought out because my gut feeling is that it isn't only Chevy's call and ownership won't like the idea. The Jets aren't rolling in dough and I just don't see it happening.
However, if Montoya isn't upgraded in the off-season, and the approach isn't to play another goaltender more, then I will lose a lot of faith.
I think goaltending is our #1 problem (we do have other problems, and this is #1) and 3 years is enough time to evaluate this problem.
For those who have already lost it with Chevy you are in for a long long ride. He just upped up for 5 years and will likely be around a lot longer than the average HF poster. Before going on I'd like to thank WpgSilver for bumping the Pavs re-signing thread. Pretty much everyone was on side at the time. Pavs as not developed as hoped and I share most people's views we need to find an alternative for our #1 goalie. That being said it is only in retrospect that it has been as a mistake of Chevy's.
But in terms of the OP criteria for judging Chevy:
1) Draft well
2) Win trades
3) Play the waiver wire well
4) Sign free agents and RFA's well
1) You can downplay his drafting if you like but his first 2 # 1 picks look to be on the fast track to #1 C and top pairing D-man status. His 3rd #1 pick (Morrissey) gets continuing drooling from many posters in the prospects thread and I wouldn't be surprised if one day soon he is 1-2 with Trouba. On top of that it looks like over the next few years there will be multiple other picks in the lineup including but not limited to: Petan, Lowry, Kosmo, Hellybuyk, Comrie, Lipon, Copp. And how much do you want to bet this years first will be another solid hit? Definite "A" here. Even with Scheifele and Trouba in the lineup we have moved into the top third of prospect ratings.
2) Mixed results here and an area where Chevy needs to start making moves. The biggest obvious win was Frolik for a 3rd and 5th.
3) Regretfully being a bottom half team you need to play the waiver wire game. But we have made several improvements at no cost. Why wouldn't you take free players if they are a net improvement for your team.
4) In terms of UFA's not a lot of them. Olli at the time seemed okay. If you count Enstrom a definite win keeping him. RFA's well they signed all of their own at somewhere around market value. But thank God we didn't hamstring ourselves over the next 7 years with a Clarkson type signing.
Really this is all about Pavs but everything else Chevy has done has got dragged it. Yes we need better goaltending. But yes this team also is much better positioned to move forward in every other area.
But in terms of the OP criteria for judging Chevy:
1) Draft well
2) Win trades
3) Play the waiver wire well
4) Sign free agents and RFA's well
1) You can downplay his drafting if you like but his first 2 # 1 picks look to be on the fast track to #1 C and top pairing D-man status. His 3rd #1 pick (Morrissey) gets continuing drooling from many posters in the prospects thread and I wouldn't be surprised if one day soon he is 1-2 with Trouba. On top of that it looks like over the next few years there will be multiple other picks in the lineup including but not limited to: Petan, Lowry, Kosmo, Hellybuyk, Comrie, Lipon, Copp. And how much do you want to bet this years first will be another solid hit? Definite "A" here. Even with Scheifele and Trouba in the lineup we have moved into the top third of prospect ratings.
2) Mixed results here and an area where Chevy needs to start making moves. The biggest obvious win was Frolik for a 3rd and 5th.
3) Regretfully being a bottom half team you need to play the waiver wire game. But we have made several improvements at no cost. Why wouldn't you take free players if they are a net improvement for your team.
4) In terms of UFA's not a lot of them. Olli at the time seemed okay. If you count Enstrom a definite win keeping him. RFA's well they signed all of their own at somewhere around market value. But thank God we didn't hamstring ourselves over the next 7 years with a Clarkson type signing.
Really this is all about Pavs but everything else Chevy has done has got dragged it. Yes we need better goaltending. But yes this team also is much better positioned to move forward in every other area.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
I disagree only in retrospect.
There were very powerful and predictive indications that it was a poor decision at the time...
There were very powerful and predictive indications that it was a poor decision at the time...
truck
Registered User
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