Value of: If things go crazy, make your best offer for Dylan Larkin.

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I found a deal.
To Detroit.
Byram, Newhook, Annunen
To Colorado:
Larkin.
Who says no?

I'm assuming this is a joke right?


The Avs wouldn't even give that package up for Miller who is the significantly better player. 0% chance they're moving all of that for Larkin.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

based on that argument i would do zacha for seider. i would even allow you to add raymond.

in a trade like this lafreniere's past performances are nearly irrelevant. either you believe in his talents or you don't. if you don't, he is not in the trade at all.

Yikes dude. Zacha is not remotely close to the player Larkin is. Seider is already, currently a top 20 D in the league. Laf has a career PPG of .35.

Make a better comparison.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

based on that argument i would do zacha for seider. i would even allow you to add raymond.

in a trade like this lafreniere's past performances are nearly irrelevant. either you believe in his talents or you don't. if you don't, he is not in the trade at all.

Yeah right Zacha isn't even in Seiders league, I wouldn't move Seider for either Hischer or Hughes let alone a 3C like Zacha. Seider is already an elite franchise Dman you build your team around. Devils don't have a player i'd move Seider for. And that includes Hischier/Hughes and Holtz that's how much Seider means to us.

 

[TBF1972]

Yeah right Zacha isn't even in Seiders league, I wouldn't move Seider for either Hischer or Hughes let alone a 3C like Zacha. Seider is already an elite franchise Dman you build your team around. Devils don't have a player i'd move Seider for. And that includes Hischier/Hughes and Holtz that's how much Seider means to us.

You don't get it.

I am not seriously suggesting a Seider or Raymond trade. They are both untouchable. Just today in a trade involving Lafreniere the receiving party values him close to his pre-draft value or the Rangers wouldn't make him available. How much he already established himself in the league is not important. It's all about his potential.

And as good as Seider has been, he is not yet Top 20 in the NHL. He is on a very good way to climb even higher on that list. But he isn't there yet, as expected in his rookie season.

Edit: Top 20 comment is towards your colleague posting above. Sorry for clashing my replies.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

no, it still doesnt make any sense.

Neither did 2 1sts for Coleman but you really can't argue with 2 consecutive cup rings

 

[WingsMJN2965]

You don't get it.

I am not seriously suggesting a Seider or Raymond trade. They are both untouchable. Just today in a trade involving Lafreniere the receiving party values him close to his pre-draft value or the Rangers wouldn't make him available. How much he already established himself in the league is not important. It's all about his potential.

And as good as Seider has been, he is not yet Top 20 in the NHL. He is on a very good way to climb even higher on that list. But he isn't there yet, as expected in his rookie season.

Edit: Top 20 comment is towards your colleague posting above. Sorry for clashing my replies.

Seider is absolutely a top 20 D man in the league right now…

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

You don't get it.

I am not seriously suggesting a Seider or Raymond trade. They are both untouchable. Just today in a trade involving Lafreniere the receiving party values him close to his pre-draft value or the Rangers wouldn't make him available. How much he already established himself in the league is not important. It's all about his potential.

And as good as Seider has been, he is not yet Top 20 in the NHL. He is on a very good way to climb even higher on that list. But he isn't there yet, as expected in his rookie season.

Edit: Top 20 comment is towards your colleague posting above. Sorry for clashing my replies.

How much you want to wager that Seider is a top 20 Dman? You look at his Corsi numbers and he's easily top 20.

 

[nbwingsfan]

based on that argument i would do zacha for seider. i would even allow you to add raymond.

in a trade like this lafreniere's past performances are nearly irrelevant. either you believe in his talents or you don't. if you don't, he is not in the trade at all.

This is a really really weird example, since Seider is already playing like a top 15d. Lafreniere is playing like a 4th liner.

If you would have said Zacha for Byfield you may have a point.

 

[TBF1972]

This is a really really weird example, since Seider is already playing like a top 15d. Lafreniere is playing like a 4th liner.

If you would have said Zacha for Byfield you may have a point.

Byfield doesn't play for Detroit.

My post was about the value of potential versus current production. But as soon as you touch with an example the fanboy nerve a content discussion seems not possible.

 

[Random schmoe]

Gonna post this just in the spirit of crazy. Fun BS on a message board, not to be taken seriously. So those of you treat trade proposals as a personal insult, take a breath and calm down before you have a stroke. Any a-holes will just go straight to my ignore list.

Just for s&grins, I'd like to see what package the Caps could do to make this trade work. Note this would be considered an opening offer, to be negotiated back and forth further. And I'm doing this in a train of thought manner.

Caps start with McMichael and a 1st. That should at least get Yzerman to answer the phone.

The Caps will need to include some cap hit going back to Detroit to fit Larkin in, and they wouldn't need Lars Eller anymore. Backstrom could drop down to center the third line. Eller has a cap hit of $3.5M through the end of next season. While he'd look like a cap dump in this deal, he is still a really solid third line center.I understand that, for various reasons, he may not provide a ton of value long term to Detroit, based on his position/role, contract expiry, and age. Perhaps he could help mentor, perhaps Detroit could flip him to another team... whatever. I'd include a 3rd to compensate Detroit for taking the contract.

At this point the Caps still need to shave off another $1,580,833 in cap hit for the remainder of the season. I'd not to want ask Detroit to retain any salary ... in part because it'll cost a fair bit with the contract still having another year to go. I'd really prefer to find a player asset on the Caps who would be an asset for Detroit without trading a 'major' piece. But I'm just not seeing one.

Samsonov is an obvious thought, making $2M, but Detroit seems pretty happy with Nedeljkovic as their current goalie of the future. Caps could of course deal Sammy elsewhere, but then they'd need a decent backup, who would more than likely be making more than the savings. So unless Detroit WANTED Samsonov, that's not a good choice.

Hagelin is also an obvious candidate ... but he's on LTIR with a "significant eye injury", and his season may be over. So he's not currently causing a problem on their cap.

The only other guys on the Caps who might be expendable and make enough to balance the books are Justin Schultz ($4M, expiring) and Michal Kempny ($2.5M, expiring). Schultz hasn't been great this year, but he's still one of their regular 6 defensemen and I doubt they want to open a new hold. Kempny is acting as their 7th or 8th D, and it's valuable having a guy like him available ... but he's not a core component. The downside is that he'd be a pretty blatant cap dump here.

So I'd regretfully end up asking Detroit to EITHER retain 25%, and be willing to pay in a prospect like Alexeyev, Brent Johnson, or Vincent Iorio, or include Kempny as a dump, paying with a 2nd round pick in 2023 - a deep draft, one Detroit could package to move up.

So initial offer would be:
McMichael
Eller
Caps 1st 2022 Unprotected
Caps 3nd 2022

And either of:
Samsonov
-OR-
Kempny and Caps 2023 2nd.

Wings:
Larkin

Potential negotiation points from the Caps side:
Instead of the Eller 3rd and Kempny 2nd, would be willing to do the 2023 1st, top 10 protected.
Also instead of those picks, would be willing to pay with another solid-to-good prospect, depending on what the Wings pipeline needs: Leason, Alexeyev, Iorio, Johnson.. just not LaPierre.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Byfield doesn't play for Detroit.

My post was about the value of potential versus current production. But as soon as you touch with an example the fanboy nerve a content discussion seems not possible.

There’s a massive difference when that “potential” hasn’t been shown at all and keep diminishing versus Seider who’s already a top pair D with a ton of more potential.

Of course last accomplishments in the NHL matter when you’re 100+ games into your NHL career now and it hasn’t looked good

I understand what you’re trying to say, but Seider is already CURRENTLY a way better player than Zacha. Meanwhile Lafreniere isn’t even remotely close to Larkin. Just a bad example overall.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You don't get it.

I am not seriously suggesting a Seider or Raymond trade. They are both untouchable. Just today in a trade involving Lafreniere the receiving party values him close to his pre-draft value or the Rangers wouldn't make him available. How much he already established himself in the league is not important. It's all about his potential.

And as good as Seider has been, he is not yet Top 20 in the NHL. He is on a very good way to climb even higher on that list. But he isn't there yet, as expected in his rookie season.

Edit: Top 20 comment is towards your colleague posting above. Sorry for clashing my replies.

By almost every single statistic available to a D, and the eye test, he’s well within a top 20D.

 

[TBF1972]

There’s a massive difference when that “potential” hasn’t been shown at all and keep diminishing versus Seider who’s already a top pair D with a ton of more potential.

Of course last accomplishments in the NHL matter when you’re 100+ games into your NHL career now and it hasn’t looked good

I understand what you’re trying to say, but Seider is already CURRENTLY a way better player than Zacha. Meanwhile Lafreniere isn’t even remotely close to Larkin. Just a bad example overall.

Take Werenski for Seider or Hedman for Seider. You still say no because you value the untapped potential of Seider.
The Rangers probably still bet on Lafreniere. So a trade Larkin for Laf +(+) won't interest them. If the buyer isn't sold on Lafreniere's potential, you better try to form a trade around other pieces.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Byfield doesn't play for Detroit.

My post was about the value of potential versus current production. But as soon as you touch with an example the fanboy nerve a content discussion seems not possible.

Yeah, the problem is you compared a guy who has been exceeding expectations everywhere he’s gone to a guy that has been a massive disappointment since he was drafted lol.

 

[cslebn]

The discussion would begin and end with Kent Johnson.

I would love Dylan Larkin as he would fit with a core of Werenski and Laine, but I think the Jackets need to see what they have first in Johnson, Sillinger, etc. Also he's a UFA next summer so that's a huge gamble for whatever team would be acquiring him.

So you're saying we just wait for him to sign with his best bud as a UFA right?

 

[MBH]

I'm assuming this is a joke right?


The Avs wouldn't even give that package up for Miller who is the significantly better player. 0% chance they're moving all of that for Larkin.

Disagree with the notion that Miller is significantly better.
They're pretty similar.

In Larkin, you've got a guy with another year on his contract and the ability to sign longterm.
JT's contract ends next year... and he'll be 30 when his next contract starts.

Larkin will be 27.

I'm guessing The Avs GM might want to make a move that suggests he's going to try and win the cup.

 

[MBH]

Gonna post this just in the spirit of crazy. Fun BS on a message board, not to be taken seriously. So those of you treat trade proposals as a personal insult, take a breath and calm down before you have a stroke. Any a-holes will just go straight to my ignore list.

Just for s&grins, I'd like to see what package the Caps could do to make this trade work. Note this would be considered an opening offer, to be negotiated back and forth further. And I'm doing this in a train of thought manner.

Caps start with McMichael and a 1st. That should at least get Yzerman to answer the phone.

The Caps will need to include some cap hit going back to Detroit to fit Larkin in, and they wouldn't need Lars Eller anymore. Backstrom could drop down to center the third line. Eller has a cap hit of $3.5M through the end of next season. While he'd look like a cap dump in this deal, he is still a really solid third line center.I understand that, for various reasons, he may not provide a ton of value long term to Detroit, based on his position/role, contract expiry, and age. Perhaps he could help mentor, perhaps Detroit could flip him to another team... whatever. I'd include a 3rd to compensate Detroit for taking the contract.

At this point the Caps still need to shave off another $1,580,833 in cap hit for the remainder of the season. I'd not to want ask Detroit to retain any salary ... in part because it'll cost a fair bit with the contract still having another year to go. I'd really prefer to find a player asset on the Caps who would be an asset for Detroit without trading a 'major' piece. But I'm just not seeing one.

Samsonov is an obvious thought, making $2M, but Detroit seems pretty happy with Nedeljkovic as their current goalie of the future. Caps could of course deal Sammy elsewhere, but then they'd need a decent backup, who would more than likely be making more than the savings. So unless Detroit WANTED Samsonov, that's not a good choice.

Hagelin is also an obvious candidate ... but he's on LTIR with a "significant eye injury", and his season may be over. So he's not currently causing a problem on their cap.

The only other guys on the Caps who might be expendable and make enough to balance the books are Justin Schultz ($4M, expiring) and Michal Kempny ($2.5M, expiring). Schultz hasn't been great this year, but he's still one of their regular 6 defensemen and I doubt they want to open a new hold. Kempny is acting as their 7th or 8th D, and it's valuable having a guy like him available ... but he's not a core component. The downside is that he'd be a pretty blatant cap dump here.

So I'd regretfully end up asking Detroit to EITHER retain 25%, and be willing to pay in a prospect like Alexeyev, Brent Johnson, or Vincent Iorio, or include Kempny as a dump, paying with a 2nd round pick in 2023 - a deep draft, one Detroit could package to move up.

So initial offer would be:
McMichael
Eller
Caps 1st 2022 Unprotected
Caps 3nd 2022

And either of:
Samsonov
-OR-
Kempny and Caps 2023 2nd.

Wings:
Larkin

Potential negotiation points from the Caps side:
Instead of the Eller 3rd and Kempny 2nd, would be willing to do the 2023 1st, top 10 protected.
Also instead of those picks, would be willing to pay with another solid-to-good prospect, depending on what the Wings pipeline needs: Leason, Alexeyev, Iorio, Johnson.. just not LaPierre.

Neither offer makes the Wings stop and pause, let alone pull the trigger.
McMichael looks like a third line C, maybe.
Eller is an aging depth guy.
The pick will be around 20th overall. Throw a dart. Pick a year.
Half the time, the 20th overall is a bust or a 4th liner.

Wings aren't even going to consider trading Larkin unless it's the kind of offer that blows the roof off.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Take Werenski for Seider or Hedman for Seider. You still say no because you value the untapped potential of Seider.
The Rangers probably still bet on Lafreniere. So a trade Larkin for Laf +(+) won't interest them. If the buyer isn't sold on Lafreniere's potential, you better try to form a trade around other pieces.

You’re still not making any sense because the current play of Seider is almost Hedman level, and even above or the same as werenski. Lafreniere is playing a at about a 4th liner level, while Larkin is a #1C. In the case of Hedman for Seider, worst case for Tampa is they’re getting a pretty good #1D but potential for Norris level player. Worst case for Detroit is we get a 3rd/4th line player. Hope this helps explain it better.

A better example you’re looking for would be Stutzle for Larkin.

 

[Random schmoe]

Neither offer makes the Wings stop and pause, let alone pull the trigger.
McMichael looks like a third line C, maybe.
Eller is an aging depth guy.
The pick will be around 20th overall. Throw a dart. Pick a year.
Half the time, the 20th overall is a bust or a 4th liner.

Wings aren't even going to consider trading Larkin unless it's the kind of offer that blows the roof off.

Shrug, ok. I think if that's your valuation of McMichael then there's not likely to be anything the Caps would do bridge the divide.

 

[Debrincat93]

Neither did 2 1sts for Coleman but you really can't argue with 2 consecutive cup rings

got me there.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Byfield doesn't play for Detroit.

My post was about the value of potential versus current production. But as soon as you touch with an example the fanboy nerve a content discussion seems not possible.

Seider's current production is 11th in the league for defensemen. Like, I understand that people can get crazy about their own players and what not... but Seider isn't "projection" here. He's outscoring guys like Werenski (only by a point, but that's a vet), Brent Burns, Dahlin, etc. Moritz Seider isn't "going to be a 1D someday." He's a 1D now. Today.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Gonna post this just in the spirit of crazy. Fun BS on a message board, not to be taken seriously. So those of you treat trade proposals as a personal insult, take a breath and calm down before you have a stroke. Any a-holes will just go straight to my ignore list.

Just for s&grins, I'd like to see what package the Caps could do to make this trade work. Note this would be considered an opening offer, to be negotiated back and forth further. And I'm doing this in a train of thought manner.

Caps start with McMichael and a 1st. That should at least get Yzerman to answer the phone.

The Caps will need to include some cap hit going back to Detroit to fit Larkin in, and they wouldn't need Lars Eller anymore. Backstrom could drop down to center the third line. Eller has a cap hit of $3.5M through the end of next season. While he'd look like a cap dump in this deal, he is still a really solid third line center.I understand that, for various reasons, he may not provide a ton of value long term to Detroit, based on his position/role, contract expiry, and age. Perhaps he could help mentor, perhaps Detroit could flip him to another team... whatever. I'd include a 3rd to compensate Detroit for taking the contract.

At this point the Caps still need to shave off another $1,580,833 in cap hit for the remainder of the season. I'd not to want ask Detroit to retain any salary ... in part because it'll cost a fair bit with the contract still having another year to go. I'd really prefer to find a player asset on the Caps who would be an asset for Detroit without trading a 'major' piece. But I'm just not seeing one.

Samsonov is an obvious thought, making $2M, but Detroit seems pretty happy with Nedeljkovic as their current goalie of the future. Caps could of course deal Sammy elsewhere, but then they'd need a decent backup, who would more than likely be making more than the savings. So unless Detroit WANTED Samsonov, that's not a good choice.

Hagelin is also an obvious candidate ... but he's on LTIR with a "significant eye injury", and his season may be over. So he's not currently causing a problem on their cap.

The only other guys on the Caps who might be expendable and make enough to balance the books are Justin Schultz ($4M, expiring) and Michal Kempny ($2.5M, expiring). Schultz hasn't been great this year, but he's still one of their regular 6 defensemen and I doubt they want to open a new hold. Kempny is acting as their 7th or 8th D, and it's valuable having a guy like him available ... but he's not a core component. The downside is that he'd be a pretty blatant cap dump here.

So I'd regretfully end up asking Detroit to EITHER retain 25%, and be willing to pay in a prospect like Alexeyev, Brent Johnson, or Vincent Iorio, or include Kempny as a dump, paying with a 2nd round pick in 2023 - a deep draft, one Detroit could package to move up.

So initial offer would be:
McMichael
Eller
Caps 1st 2022 Unprotected
Caps 3nd 2022

And either of:
Samsonov
-OR-
Kempny and Caps 2023 2nd.

Wings:
Larkin

Potential negotiation points from the Caps side:
Instead of the Eller 3rd and Kempny 2nd, would be willing to do the 2023 1st, top 10 protected.
Also instead of those picks, would be willing to pay with another solid-to-good prospect, depending on what the Wings pipeline needs: Leason, Alexeyev, Iorio, Johnson.. just not LaPierre.

DOA here. McMichael and a 1st does not keep Yzerman on the line. So, he doesn't hear the rest of your offer. That offer is insultingly low, I don't even want to hear your first offer.

It needs to actually hurt if you're going to acquire a guy like Larkin who can, with good linemates, be a PPG C with a never-ending motor. I don't think McMichael and a 1st does that. And you're certainly not adding in "cap dumps" to fit the salary. Any and all pieces coming back in a Larkin deal would have to be adding value to Detroit or Detroit doesn't do the deal.

McMichael, a 1st, and add something pretty significant from there. Dunno enough about the Caps system to quantify an ask, but it would have to be a material asset and not someone you simply need to move because you don't have the cap space to take Larkin if you don't move him.