This morning heard Mirtle in the Athletic put the percentage of Rielly being traded at 0.1%. Andy was at 65%. Perhaps somebody can come up with the full list??
We’re into trade SZN, as Botch would say.
Roughly one-third of the NHL is capped out right now. There are set to be well north of 120 unrestricted free agents hitting the market next week. And another 100-plus restricted free agents need new contracts.
All of that is going to be compressed into a short window here after the longest NHL season in league history finally concluded on Monday.
It’s going to lead to a very busy trade market, the results of which we’ve seen the past few weeks, with more trades – eight, including the Leafs’ blockbuster with Pittsburgh involving Kasperi Kapanen – occurring during the playoffs than we’ve seen in years.
The Leafs are going to be active in this period. They’ll be pursuing free agents, big and small. They’ll need to sign their key RFAs – namely Ilya Mikheyev and Travis Dermott. And, yes, they will make trades.
Trades to clear cap space. And trades aimed at improving (and changing) the roster.
What follows is a ranking of 16 key trade assets that Leafs GM Kyle Dubas to deal. They range from depth prospects to star players, and their likelihood of being moved ranges from very low to very probable.
Not listed here are players who will not be traded under any circumstance this offseason. In this group, I’m including: Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and Jake Muzzin. Tavares and Muzzin both have no-movement clauses. Matthews effectively has one given he is one of the best players in the NHL. The Leafs GM, meanwhile, has said publicly that trading Marner is not on the table.
What does that leave? Well, much of the roster. All of the picks. And all of the prospect pool.
This is obviously mostly a fun exercise, but I’ll use what intel I have to make some educated assumptions, too. I do believe a lot of things are on the table for the front office right now, as they attempt to remake the blue line and improve this team’s depth.
Tier 1: The elite assets
1. Morgan Rielly
Before you fill the comments with hate, please note this one is extremely unlikely. The Leafs need to improve their defence, not subtract from it, and moving their biggest minute defencemen hardly seems to help. The only way moving Rielly would make sense is if the return was spectacular. It is worth noting, however, that he only has two years remaining on his bargain of a contract. At 28 years old, Rielly will require a huge commitment, in dollars and term, to bring back. A problem for another day. Likelihood of being dealt: 0.1%
2. William Nylander
Again, this likely isn’t happening. And it’s unfortunate this has been talked about so ridiculously often over the years that it’s basically become a meme in the market. “Leafs need a defenceman? Trade Nylander!” Here’s the reality: The Leafs don’t want to do this. Other teams aren’t offering them enough to justify doing it. Unless something dramatic changes, it won’t happen this offseason. Put your money on the Core Four coming back. Likelihood of being dealt: 0.5%
3. Rasmus Sandin
To echo the Rielly entry: If you need to fix the blue line, don’t deal away your top young hope for the future on defence. That said, you have to give to get. If the Leafs are dealing with a rebuilding team (or a team trying to shed payroll) for a top-end defenceman, they are going to want elite assets going the other way. Sandin qualifies. Still, moving a defender who was playing in the NHL at 20 years old last year has to be a last-resort option. Likelihood of being dealt: 0.3%
4. The 2020 first-round pick (15th overall)
Dubas is on the record saying this pick could be moved. And that makes sense. While the Leafs need to restock the prospect pool, the player picked here isn’t impacting the lineup for another three or four years, in most scenarios. By that point, who knows where the current core is. And the 15th overall pick is going to be a persuasive asset in any trade for a top defenceman. The only way they don’t trade it, in my opinion, is if they fill their hole on right defence in free agency and not trade. Likelihood of being dealt: 50%
5. The 2021 first-round pick (unknown)
This one hasn’t been talked about a lot, but if the Leafs can convince a trade partner to take next year’s first rounder, that would obviously be preferable. It would allow the Leafs to still pick 15th overall, for one, next week. And the 2021 pick is likely to be later in the draft and take longer to impact the NHL lineup. Likelihood of being dealt: 10%
6. Timothy Liljegren
More likely to be moved than Sandin. But still not very likely. Liljegren had a strong season in the AHL but struggled in the NHL in depth minutes, so it’s difficult to forecast what comes next. This is a pivotal development year for him, at age 21, but there still isn’t a likely hole available to him to make the Leafs this coming season, either – not with how many defencemen are ahead of him. Does that make him more expendable? Or do you move someone else to open up a slot to get him NHL minutes? (See below for some candidates…) Likelihood of being dealt: 3%
Tier 2: The good value assets
7. Zach Hyman
To say this has never been talked about or thought about in the front office would be inaccurate. There are those there who believe it makes some sense, given Hyman is entering the final year of a bargain contract and would have considerable trade value. I don’t think those voices will win out, but it’s not entirely out of the question. But how do you find a player as good as Hyman for how inexpensive he’ll be? To play on your top line, with your best player, while making $2.25 million? And how do you not explore
a steep hometown discount on an extension, given he’s likely to be interested in signing it? Likelihood of being dealt: 2%
8. Frederik Andersen
I’m less certain now
than I was a few weeks ago that the Leafs would move on from Andersen. What’s changed is Vegas is going to re-sign Robin Lehner and Anton Khudobin’s play in the postseason probably hiked his value far enough to take him out of contention. There are still a lot of options out there, and I do believe the Leafs’ exploration of this change has been real, but we’ll see how hard they pursue it given a new face in goal isn’t their greatest need. Andersen has a lot of value given he’s only owed $1 million in cash now that his signing bonus was paid, but it only makes sense to deal him if you have a replacement you’re comfortable with. (Just to add some chaos to the mix: What about Jacob Markstrom as a fit if the Canucks don’t manage to get a deal done? Some other teams believe that’s a route the Leafs could go.) Likelihood of being dealt: 65%
9. Ilya Mikheyev
The only way you move on from Mikheyev is if the contract talks are completely unproductive. He’s only played 39 NHL games. He struggled in the playoffs (understandably, given the injury). The reality is all he’s earned is a short, show-me contract that’s for $2 million a season or less. And realistically that’s all the Leafs can afford to give him right now. Because of his age, he has arbitration rights, so maybe they end up there. Or maybe he goes back to Russia? But I doubt it. Likelihood of being dealt: 2%
10. Travis Dermott
Another player in need of a new contract. Dermott does not have arbitration rights, so the Leafs could really play hardball if they wanted to. He also doesn’t have a great case for a big raise, given he’s only played third-pair minutes. (Connor Carrick’s $1.3 million deal two years ago comes up
as one of the best comparables, which sounds about right.) Toronto’s cap situation is so tight, too, that they will have to squeeze him into a contract close to that figure. The other option would be a trade. It’s possible, given the addition of Mikko Lehtonen from the KHL and the logjam facing Sandin, Liljegren and the organization’s other prospects and depth D. Don’t rule this out if contract talks go sideways. Likelihood of being dealt: 8%
Tier 3: The depth assets
11. Alexander Kerfoot
Maybe they move him, if they need the $3.5 million in space. But every good team in this league in this era has three strong centres. Much like dealing a good defenceman, moving out Kerfoot opens a hole that will have to then be filled – and that newcomer will cost at least as much if not more in most plausible scenarios. Kerfoot also played hurt for a decent stretch of the season and may well have more to give. Likelihood of being dealt: 15%
12. Andreas Johnsson
Really the only reason I have Johnsson this likely to be dealt is the fact the Leafs are going to need more cap space to add a quality defenceman. And it’s hard to open up space if the Leafs are unwilling to deal any of their biggest contracts, as appears likely. Johnsson could well have a bounce-back season next year, so selling low wouldn’t be ideal. They just don’t have a ton of options to shed payroll. Likelihood of being dealt: 65%
13. Justin Holl
Maybe Holl isn’t the ideal top-four defenceman, but he’s a right shot, who isn’t making big money, who played some very good stretches last season on a shutdown pair with Muzzin. Hard to replace that on the open market. Even if you might lose him in the expansion draft next year. Likelihood of being dealt: 1%
14. Filip Hallander
The Leafs new Fil The Thrill only just got here, but as an alternative to moving the first-round pick, maybe a team likes the look of a 20-year-old two-way centre playing well in the Swedish league right now? Maybe. Likelihood of being dealt: 3%
15. Pierre Engvall
Sources I trust say Engvall is on the block and the Leafs are looking to potentially free up the $550,000 he makes over the league minimum. I don’t think they’ll just give him away, however, and there might not be a huge trade market. But this shouldn’t shock anyone if it happens. Another player who they could potentially lose in the expansion draft next year if he stays. Likelihood of being dealt: 30%
16. Frederik Gauthier
It doesn’t make a lot of sense not to qualify The Goat next week when the QO deadline hits. The big reason? Other teams like him, especially those in the East who have played against him the past few years. Do they like him enough to trade something of value for him? We might find out. Likelihood of being dealt: 40%
Other potential assets
These are either extremely unlikely to be dealt (i.e. Robertson) or of lesser value, but they are nonetheless pieces the Leafs could theoretically put in play:
Nick Robertson, rights to UFA players like Tyson Barrie, second-round picks (2020 and 2021), other picks in later rounds, Mikko Lehtonen, Alexander Barabanov, Jack Campbell, Denis Malgin, Mikhail Abramov, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Egor Korshkov, Joseph Woll, Calle Rosen, Nic Petan, Jeremy Bracco.
