Speculation: If Landy DOES Sign

[StreetHawk]

Landy is already slowing down, so anything long term could seriously cripple this team if it's not kept at a low AAV. I'd just prefer for them to move on, but I have a hard time seeing it happen.

He’s going for term. At his age there is no value to him in hitting free agency again at age 32. Most leverage he has is now and getting max term is key for him. Guaranteed money thus he’s assured to collect the majority of it even if he gets bought out near the end of it.

 

[The Merchant]

Is he slowing down? In pretty much every way, Landy was better this year than last year. Better this year than any other year in his career beyond 18-19. He's to the age where a slow down will happen, but he is showing big time signs of fading like Duchene was.

To my eye he was slower to pucks and battles this year. The production will be there as long as he plays with the players he does. But Landy simply isn't the type that's going to age gracefully in a game that's getting faster and faster.

 

[henchman21]

To my eye he was slower to pucks and battles this year. The production will be there as long as he plays with the players he does. But Landy simply isn't the type that's going to age gracefully in a game that's getting faster and faster.

He created more chances himself and his shot assists were up this year. He had a career year in 18-19 that won't be replicated, but outside that year, he was as good as he's ever been.

I'd argue that Landy is much more the type that is going to age gracefully compared to some (to be clear, he's going to regress... but more to a 2nd line guy at 33 than a 4th line guy). His game is built around solid 2 way play with anticipation, breaking plays up, smartly moving to more talented players, and some physicality. He doesn't rely on burning speed or really his skating at all. He doesn't play overly physical to have that wear and tear on his body. Hasn't had major injury issues. I think too often people equate that not having supreme physical skill means they won't age well... I think it is the exact opposite. Players like Duchene (and this will ruffle feathers... MacK) who rely on something supremely above anybody else, when that part of the game starts to slide... they don't adjust well. Yet somebody like Alfredsson, who was never a pure specimen aged like a fine wine.

I know other point to Dustin Brown what Landy will age into, but two things. Landy doesn't play as rough and tumble as Brown ever did. Injuries and some long, all our playoffs with scars to show slowed Brown. Beyond that though, he's been pretty good the last 4 seasons. Actually not far off of his peak. He has adjusted to a league that you'd think with the wear and tear on his body, plus his skating that he'd have no business playing in because he plays smart complimentary hockey.

 

[flyfysher]

He created more chances himself and his shot assists were up this year. He had a career year in 18-19 that won't be replicated, but outside that year, he was as good as he's ever been.

I'd argue that Landy is much more the type that is going to age gracefully compared to some (to be clear, he's going to regress... but more to a 2nd line guy at 33 than a 4th line guy). His game is built around solid 2 way play with anticipation, breaking plays up, smartly moving to more talented players, and some physicality. He doesn't rely on burning speed or really his skating at all. He doesn't play overly physical to have that wear and tear on his body. Hasn't had major injury issues. I think too often people equate that not having supreme physical skill means they won't age well... I think it is the exact opposite. Players like Duchene (and this will ruffle feathers... MacK) who rely on something supremely above anybody else, when that part of the game starts to slide... they don't adjust well. Yet somebody like Alfredsson, who was never a pure specimen aged like a fine wine.

I know other point to Dustin Brown what Landy will age into, but two things. Landy doesn't play as rough and tumble as Brown ever did. Injuries and some long, all our playoffs with scars to show slowed Brown. Beyond that though, he's been pretty good the last 4 seasons. Actually not far off of his peak. He has adjusted to a league that you'd think with the wear and tear on his body, plus his skating that he'd have no business playing in because he plays smart complimentary hockey.

I hope you’re right. When Landeskog is playing poorly though it’s really noticeable.

 

[henchman21]

I hope you’re right. When Landeskog is playing poorly though it’s really noticeable.

Oh yeah, when he plays bad, he's very noticeably bad. Much like Girard I think that is symptomatic of how much the team relies on them in their roles. I would say the Avs lean too much on him and that needs reduced now, but especially over time.

 

[Pokecheque]

So if he wants $10,000,000 per year for 6 years you think Sakic signs him? I don't.

Let's settle down. I really do not think he's going to demand Rants money.

 

[TheForsbergShow]

You resign him and deal with his contract in 5 years. In that time span you hope they at least have 1 cup, if not then something went seriously wrong aka Sakic didn't address the needs of the team to succeed beyond the 2nd in the playoffs (better c Depth and a bit more playoff grit/skill in our bottom six). It is not like we lost to a bad team, knights were cup contenders from the start and they showed why this series.

It is crazy how fast people will turn on him. I remember reading how amazing he was and played his best games as an Av just like two weeks ago. Now that he had a few stinkers (yes bad timing) people want him to walk away from him? We are already thin with top 6 players, especially ones that have a little jam to their game. He is a lot more important to the team than just points and offense, and with Johnson not around for much longer I am sure his off ice stuff will be even more important for the team.

You lose him for nothing, then you are looking at Sakic needing to replace a PPG defensively sound, top 6 wing that is a big part of one of the best lines in the league. A new 2nd line center. A replacement for Saad(or if your resign him you still need another legit top 6 wing). A bit more jam in our bottom 6. A potential top4 RD that will play a simple game and a new starting goalie all in one offseason. We don't have that many high quality trade chips, and as good as Sakic can be at offseason trading we also know he likes to be patient.

That is just way too many moving parts and only so much salary to go around in a flat cap. So unless Sakic is willing to deal Girard/Byram and Newhook who are all going to be vital to keeping our teams window open, you just can't afford to let him walk as long as the deal is reasonable.

 

[flyfysher]

You resign him and deal with his contract in 5 years. In that time span you hope they at least have 1 cup, if not then something went seriously wrong aka Sakic didn't address the needs of the team to succeed beyond the 2nd in the playoffs (better c Depth and a bit more playoff grit/skill in our bottom six). It is not like we lost to a bad team, knights were cup contenders from the start and they showed why this series.

It is crazy how fast people will turn on him. I remember reading how amazing he was and played his best games as an Av just like two weeks ago. Now that he had a few stinkers (yes bad timing) people want him to walk away from him? We are already thin with top 6 players, especially ones that have a little jam to their game. He is a lot more important to the team than just points and offense, and with Johnson not around for much longer I am sure his off ice stuff will be even more important for the team.

You lose him for nothing, then you are looking at Sakic needing to replace a PPG defensively sound, top 6 wing that is a big part of one of the best lines in the league. A new 2nd line center. A replacement for Saad(or if your resign him you still need another legit top 6 wing). A bit more jam in our bottom 6. A potential top4 RD that will play a simple game and a new starting goalie all in one offseason. We don't have that many high quality trade chips, and as good as Sakic can be at offseason trading we also know he likes to be patient.

That is just way too many moving parts and only so much salary to go around in a flat cap. So unless Sakic is willing to deal Girard/Byram and Newhook who are all going to be vital to keeping our teams window open, you just can't afford to let him walk as long as the deal is reasonable.

You have a point. But when the chips were on the line as the Avs C, where was he?

 

[hoserthehorrible]

Let's settle down. I really do not think he's going to demand Rants money.

Settle down? What are you talking about? I put that out there as an example that Landeskog should be signed but not for outrageous money or too long of term. That, to me, would be outrageous money for too long of term.

 

[henchman21]

You have a point. But when the chips were on the line as the Avs C, where was he?

Landy wasn't great last night... but here's some food for thought from last night's game:

1st on the team in shots on net
3rd on the team in iCF behind MacK and Makar
2nd on the team in scoring chances behind MacK
2nd on the team in high danger chances behind Nuke
9 of 10 on faceoffs

He wasn't great, but there is a tendency to overlook the good he did.

 

[TheForsbergShow]

You have a point. But when the chips were on the line as the Avs C, where was he?

You can say the same thing about Mack too, he wears an A and should be one of the key leaders of the team yet he is one of the biggest culprits of pouting and moping around when he doesn't get a call. If a few bad games dictates whether we keep or let one of our core guys walk, what happens to Mack in two years time when he asks for 12million/per if he disappears again for a few games when we needed him to step up most? Do we just let him walk too?

I'm not saying Landy is irreplaceable, but he would also leave a massive hole in this roster. We already have some fairly soft wingers and losing him would just make that more even more apparent. Just realistically speaking, there is only so many major moves a GM will make, especially with a team as good as ours. People will show all these trades they would make and signings like its NHL 20 but in reality that big of roster shakeups never happen to top end teams.

Imo this was our first true years of being legit contenders (last year we had a chance but still were a bit green). This team has something here, Sakic just needs to insulate a few weaknesses that many of us could spot at the trade deadline.

 

[hoserthehorrible]

We have to get guys under contract for team friendly deals, similar to Tampa. The cap will go up in the coming years, so there will be some relief there as well. Say Landeskog signs 7x7, or 8x6 (somewhere in that range). By the time he is declining to a 'third line player' (a) the cap will be up and a third line player will make more than the current 3m dollars (roughly) (b) We will have kept a guy who is probably worth around 9m+ on a short term deal for our entire window at a low (relative) AAV (c) our window will probably be closed, so who cares.

Who do you think replaces Landeskog for less money? Saad @ 5m? That's a worse player, who is also going to decline, and now once again you have to re-sign a player to replace Saad's current role.

The problem is that the Avs can't give all important RFAs/UFAs a big raise and stay under the salary cap. I don't think they can sign Landeskog, Makar, Saad (or similar), and Grubaur (or similar) to big raises and stay under the cap. That's not even considering Jost, Timmins, and other RFAs that the team might want to keep as well.

I'm pretty certain Makar is getting a really big raise; like maybe 10X more money.

Grubaur or some other #1 goalie is going to get a raise from what Grubauer's cap hit was this year. Hell, even Dubnyk's cap hit for the whole year was more than Grubaur's was.

Saad or similar top 6 winger with Stanley Cup winning experience is likely going to want somewhat more than what Saad's cap hit was this year.

Timmins should get a raise although nowhere near the raise Makar will get.

Keep Jost and he will want a raise.

Landeskog's cap hit was $5.5. He's clearly going to want, and deserve, more but how much more can the Avs afford? $1 million more? $2 million more? $3 million more?

At some point the Avs don't have the cap space unless they can somehow dump some other "significant" salaries and replace players with a much cheaper version. If the Avs could somehow get rid of Johnson's and Grave's contracts and go with Byram and Barron they would free up quite a chunk of change but moving those players may be easier said than done.

 

[SirLoinOfCloth]

In the last few years the Avs have lost some big locker room favorites in Barrie and Zadorov. EJ too, in a way. Losing Landy would be worse that all of them combined. He's the heart and soul of this team and such a big personality. Keep him around or watch this core crumble away.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Landy wasn't great last night... but here's some food for thought from last night's game:

1st on the team in shots on net
3rd on the team in iCF behind MacK and Makar
2nd on the team in scoring chances behind MacK
2nd on the team in high danger chances behind Nuke
9 of 10 on faceoffs

He wasn't great, but there is a tendency to overlook the good he did.

Turnovers.

They don’t get accurately tracked, but turnovers are the thing that derails Landeskog’s game and did so against Vegas.

His puck management is the reason I think he was among the worst players on the team against the Knights.

 

[henchman21]

Turnovers.

They don’t get accurately tracked, but turnovers are the thing that derails Landeskog’s game and did so against Vegas.

His puck management is the reason I think he was among the worst players on the team against the Knights.

You're right, not accurately tracked and he didn't do a good job of it last night. He was still one of the best players about creating chances too. Right now there is a lot of vitriol and that is clouding how important Landy is to this team (and others).

 

[Oblivion Beckons]

Yikes. I sure it’s nothing near 7x7.

$5m for 4 years

That is absolutely hilarious if you believe he would get that. I expect around $7 million for him, probably a little over. Look at Evander Kane, Pacioretty and Nylander who have similar production. If we're talking $8 million that is Wheeler territory. Landeskog's production isn't that good but I bet there are some teams that will pay that. Term will also be important at his age.

 

[Foppa2118]

Landy's probably going to get around $7M long term.

It looked like he might be able to command more after his regular season and how he started the playoffs, then he had some bad turnovers, including one that cost them, and that negated his ability to command more.

So he's probably back to costing around $7M.

 

[Avsboy]

7 million AAV would be fair.

Going into lurker mode. See y’all in a few weeks

 

[Gurglesons]

I feel like the Avs would be much better served letting Landeskog walk. He’s going to command a ton and I feel like at best he has two years of prime performance before his game hits a wall.

Great player, one any team would be lucky to have, but it’s time for the Avs to move forward with MacK and Makar as their core leadership.

 

[Barklez]

I feel like the Avs would be much better served letting Landeskog walk. He’s going to command a ton and I feel like at best he has two years of prime performance before his game hits a wall.

Great player, one any team would be lucky to have, but it’s time for the Avs to move forward with MacK and Makar as their core leadership.

You sound like someone who hasn’t watched much of the Avs when Mack and Mikk0 are playing without Landy.

 

[katfude]

$7x5 seems very, very fair for everyone to me.

 

[Pokecheque]

He had a rough game 6 (but he wasn’t the only one) and a truly horrible turnover in game 5 as well. But I think mistakes from him are magnified because he’s usually the guy making up for other players’ mistakes. There really aren’t guys doing that for him. And as Henchy pointed out, the same kind of applies to Girard.

 

[StreetHawk]

$7x5 seems very, very fair for everyone to me.

Not happening for 5 years. We are talking guaranteed money here and there is little leverage for him on the open market when he is 33.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

I feel like the Avs would be much better served letting Landeskog walk. He’s going to command a ton and I feel like at best he has two years of prime performance before his game hits a wall.

Great player, one any team would be lucky to have, but it’s time for the Avs to move forward with MacK and Makar as their core leadership.

The issue is that without Landeskog the Avs forward group takes a definite step back. They don’t really have a plethora of offensive weapons at forward. I’d also be worried about how players would view the organization if they didn’t extend him.

No doubt this contract is going to age poorly, but losing him would hurt.

 

[dahrougem2]

He had a rough game 6 (but he wasn’t the only one) and a truly horrible turnover in game 5 as well. But I think mistakes from him are magnified because he’s usually the guy making up for other players’ mistakes. There really aren’t guys doing that for him. And as Henchy pointed out, the same kind of applies to Girard.

The thing about Landeskog is his mistakes are avoidable. They're almost always bad turnovers.

Girard's mistakes are not avoidable. He's not going to magically grow 4 inches and put on 30 pounds of muscle. Teams will continue to abuse him in the playoffs and he won't be able to do anything about it.