Speculation: Hronek value?

[golffuul]

I'm pretty much in the boat of: We don't know what we have in Hronek until we put players on the team that put us in a position to win. It's easier to get points when you're the best offensive d-man on a very poor offensive team and all of the offense is running through you. But what happens when you go from #1 to #3 minutes and the offense no longer runs through you? Maybe last year was an outlier and everything conspired against him being as effective as he could be. But he's had 23, 31, and 26 points as a defenseman and this past year he did not look good at all. So I'm not sure he's earned much more than a bridge deal, especially since he's still 23. Let the next couple of years sort themselves out and we'll see what kind of player we have as we continue to get better players on the team.

 

[FMichael]

 

[Revenge of Gru]

True. D-men weren't exactly signing bargain deals in this market.

To be clear I'm not even saying Hronek is a core piece or untradeable. If the price is right the Wings are still in a position where almost anyone on the team is worth moving. But the defense has had a crapload of turnover and been duct taped together for several seasons now.

The certainty by some people here that Hronek will be dumped for assets and we needn't worry because all our prospects will work out is a bit ridiculous.

He will for sure be traded because our window is very far away.

 

[wingfan]

I don't see Hronek getting $9m AAV and I'm assuming the two sides were not far off given that he did not file for arbitration. If we lock him up long term to 7/8 years and buy all of his prime years, I wouldn't be upset if he was in the $7m AAV ballpark.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

Little surprised at how undervalued Hronek is around here. Maybe I shouldn't be. I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed

Every player sucks until Yzetman gives his blessing. At this point draft picks that will never see NHL ice are far superior to Hronek.

 

[better Red than Dead]

I like Hronek, but I wouldn’t be against trading him for Evan Bouchard if that trade presents itself.

 

[Oddbob]

Yeah okay.

Yeah okay, what? Not one person would say it was a good deal, 100% GUARANTEED!

 

[BinCookin]

Near as I can tell the bulk of the posters here worship Yzerman and believe he can do no wrong. Even questioning his decision making is blasphemy. Of course there seems to be this other side where players that haven't dominated the NHL at 20 are garbage. It's weird. Its like maybe they don't really follow......hockey. Maybe that's just my 1st impression but I have aeen some pretty rude behavior when suggested that we need stud centers or that we weren't gonna be contenders in 3 years.

Oaf I know you think that everyone here will just do whatever Yzerman says.

But there is some key points here:

He has not signed ANYONE to a horrible contract yet.
He has not blown a huge trade yet.

You make it seem like there is a lot to criticise.
Your main criticisms are things he has NOT done. (like sign some UFA etc).

I.E. He has most people's support, because he is mostly doing a good job so far.

 

[BinCookin]

IMHO paying Hronek anything over 5.5M is going to be a huge mistake. Because when his ice time goes down in a few years, that deal will look bad.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

I don't see Hronek getting $9m AAV and I'm assuming the two sides were not far off given that he did not file for arbitration. If we lock him up long term to 7/8 years and buy all of his prime years, I wouldn't be upset if he was in the $7m AAV ballpark.

Hronek isn't eligible for arbitration, Players with like 2 RFA years left are eligible.

 

[Henkka]

IMHO paying Hronek anything over 5.5M is going to be a huge mistake. Because when his ice time goes down in a few years, that deal will look bad.

Short-term-deal solves the thing. Those have been generally cheap for defencemen on that age.

On next contract, we'll see the real level, and then next extension will be in line. (if he doesn't become trade bait before that)

 

[RedWingzz]

Pionk just got paid by the Jets...4 years at 5.875. Seems to be a lot, I wonder what this does for Hronek? I'd say Pionk is a bit ahead in his development than Hronek, and is a couple years older, but for the most part I think they are pretty comparable.

Wouldn't mind signing him for a while, I think I'd be comfortable doing 5x5 right now, although I doubt that gets it done.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

Pionk just got paid by the Jets...4 years at 5.875. Seems to be a lot, I wonder what this does for Hronek? I'd say Pionk is a bit ahead in his development that Hronek, and is a couple years older, but for the most part I think they are pretty comparable.

Wouldn't mind signing him for a while, I think I'd be comfortable doing 5x5 right now, although I doubt that gets it done.

Yeah I agree. Yzerman isn't signing anyone to be here in the future. Hronek will be moved for futures to try to somehow get some franchise players into the system someday.

 

[ricky0034]

IMHO paying Hronek anything over 5.5M is going to be a huge mistake. Because when his ice time goes down in a few years, that deal will look bad.

is he gonna go down to third pairing ice time in a few years?

because there's already like 50 Defensemen at 5.5M right now and presumably that number will only increase over time

 

[ThankGord]

A lot of questionable contracts going to defensemen recently, hope it doesn't cause issues here. We've relied on him a lot in the past couple seasons but I think he's a second pair guy when it's all said and done so I wouldn't want to go over something like 4x4 or 5x5.

 

[Konnan511]

Blah Blah Blah bunch of garbage. Blah garbage. Garbage Blah blah blah.

<-----------------------------------------

 

[Henkka]

Anyone else worried that all of these outrageous D man contracts (of 9M+ ) is inflating the signing price for Hronek??

Draft class comparables (all best scoring defenceman from 2016 class)

Players over 100 career games

Points per game and TOI
1. Adam Fox - (0.71 ppg) - 21:27min - playing on ELC
2. Jakob Chychrun - (0.56) - 22:53 - 4.6M caphit, 4 years left
3. Samuel Girard - (0.56) - 22:05min - 5.0M caphit, 5 years left
4. Charlie McAvoy - (0.53) - 23:31min - 4.9M caphit, 1 year left
5. Mikhail Sergachev - (0.51) - 21:05min - 4.8M caphit, 2 years left
6. Filip Hronek - (0.47) - 23:40min - RFA
7. Ryan Lindgren - (0.27) - 18:09min - 3.0M, 3 years left
8. Dante Fabbro - (0.22) - 19:08min - 2.4M, 2 years left

He is quite there with ~4.5M caphit, a little bit lesser production that those 2.-5. guys. And 3-year deal keeps him as RFA, that's what Yzerman is probably targeting.

Also, in three years we will see how big role Seider is gonna take (his ELC would end at same point), and can match their salaries better, if Hronek is also part of the future.

 

[Gniwder]

Draft class comparables (all best scoring defenceman from 2016 class)

Players over 100 career games

Points per game and TOI
1. Adam Fox - (0.71 ppg) - 21:27min - playing on ELC
2. Jakob Chychrun - (0.56) - 22:53 - 4.6M caphit, 4 years left
3. Samuel Girard - (0.56) - 22:05min - 5.0M caphit, 5 years left
4. Charlie McAvoy - (0.53) - 23:31min - 4.9M caphit, 1 year left
5. Mikhail Sergachev - (0.51) - 21:05min - 4.8M caphit, 2 years left
6. Filip Hronek - (0.47) - 23:40min - RFA
7. Ryan Lindgren - (0.27) - 18:09min - 3.0M, 3 years left
8. Dante Fabbro - (0.22) - 19:08min - 2.4M, 2 years left

He is quite there with ~4.5M caphit, a little bit lesser production that those 2.-5. guys. And 3-year deal keeps him as RFA, that's what Yzerman is probably targeting.

Also, in three years we will see how big role Seider is gonna take (his ELC would end at same point), and can match their salaries better, if Hronek is also part of the future.

His ice time and points will go down because:
- Seider ES
- Lindstrom PK
- Leddy PP1

I'd like to see a one year deal for $4.25M, then sign him longer term when his points go down, lol.

 

[golffuul]

Pionk's contract doesn't help Yzerman at all, in terms of leverage. But at least Hronek is only 23. So getting him on a 3-4 year deal at a lower hit than Pionk's is more doable. Anything longer and you're 5.5+, IMO. I still think somewhere between 3.5 and 4.5 AAV depending on term.

I forget. He has to get to 27 for UFA, yes? Because he slid twice? Cause it's 7 years or 27, IIRC. That makes this contract interesting. Does Yzerman do a 2-3 year "show me" or does he go for 5 years and buy a UFA year. I can see both possibilities, but probably preferring the latter of the two. So a 5 year deal at a much easier cap hit cause of only one year of UFA and coming off of ELC which would give him a 4X salary increase at around 4M AAV.

 

[deca guard]

my predictions yzerman wants hronek long term , but not longer than 6 . 5 or 6 X 5.75 or 6 .

 

[Gniwder]

my predictions yzerman wants hronek long term , but not longer than 6 . 5 or 6 X 5.75 or 6 .

I don't think so, Stevie type is big smooth skating D. I'm guessing bridge deal of some sort.

Only 30 Dmen make $6M or more, and Hronek is not a top pair D on a playoff team. Considering he's RFA and his numbers are likely to go down because of Leddy, Seider and Lindstrom, it would be a mistake to sign him for over $5M regardless of term.

 

[SirloinUB]

Low 4s for the next 2 or 3 years makes sense.

closer to 6 if we go long term

 

[Oddbob]

Are there any legit rumours of a Hronek deal being close? What about money and term?

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Are there any legit rumours of a Hronek deal being close? What about money and term?

Haven't heard a word on the Hronek front yet, Now that the Vrana deal is done. I'd imagine Hronek is next he has no leverage. So i'd imagine it can't be too long.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Haven't heard a word on the Hronek front yet, Now that the Vrana deal is done. I'd imagine Hronek is next he has no leverage. So i'd imagine it can't be too long.

Erne has a deadline, granted he got a late arbitration date, but it wouldn't surprise me just from an urgency standpoint if that is the one Yzerman does next. Gives him a few weeks on Hronek after as well before training camp. I guess we will see, sort of curious to see how he does, D-man contracts haven't really been going well if you're looking at it from the NHL organizational perspective in my opinion. Guessing Hronek has been liking what he is seeing.