Speculation: Hronek value?

[golffuul]

I'm not sure how that works. Are the TV deals not already signed and sealed? That money is already calculated into cap projections going forward. Plus the players still owe like a billion dollars in escrow. I don't see how a sharp increase is possible without some new unforseen source of HRR coming into play.

Money doesn’t hit until the year after the deal starts

 

[ricky0034]

What has he done to deserve 5M? Put up garbage points?

he lead the team in points yes

he also has a multiple year track record of putting up points now,played 23 minutes a night(for multiple years in a row as well), kills penalties etc

there's 58 Defensemen with a cap hit of 5M+ right now it's hardly some huge number

he was 18th in the league among Defensemen in time on ice last year and 26th this year, 48th/36th in points despite playing on the worst offensive team in the league by far last year and the second worst narrowly better than the worst this year etc

 

[Henkka]

he lead the team in points yes

he also has a multiple year track record of putting up points now,played 23 minutes a night(for multiple years in a row as well), kills penalties etc

there's 58 Defensemen with a cap hit of 5M+ right now it's hardly some huge number

he was 18th in the league among Defensemen in time on ice last year and 26th this year, 48th/36th in points despite playing on the worst offensive team in the league by far last year and the second worst narrowly better than the worst this year etc

It more of:

"putting up points, especially 2nd assists and only scored goals are empty netters"

"played 23min a night with poor effort"

"killed penalties in a weak pk unit, with great PK players like Glendening and Helm"

Big ice-time doesn't make him good. It was just a test, which showed him being quite poor.

Sorry guys, that's the truth and Yzerman will sell him with high price.

It's great that we drafted Hronek and Stevie will trade him for some great deal to fix another position.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

I'm not sure how that works. Are the TV deals not already signed and sealed? That money is already calculated into cap projections going forward. Plus the players still owe like a billion dollars in escrow. I don't see how a sharp increase is possible without some new unforseen source of HRR coming into play.

I'm not an authority on the subject for sure but I think ratings might be a factor and perhaps revenue in the deal rises in year 2? I dunno.

 

[Syckle78]

I'm not an authority on the subject for sure but I think ratings might be a factor and perhaps revenue in the deal rises in year 2? I dunno.

I guess additional advertising could be bring in a bonus. Never thought of that.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Hronek is good not great and should be paid accordingly.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

I guess additional advertising could be bring in a bonus. Never thought of that.

Advertising is at the core of every dollar in the capitalist world.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Hronek is good not great and should be paid accordingly.

He sucks defensively, But he's putting up nearly .05 PPG over an 82 game schedule that alone will get him at least in the $6,000,000 to $7,000,000 mil per year range.

 

[jaster]

Just all depends on how Tanguay wants the PP to operate. I’d rather have Hronek’s shot at the top of the 2nd PP shooting into traffic versus trying to sit in the Ovechkin spot where we would have to put 2 D on the power play set.

I've got no issue with 2 dmen on the same PP unit, as long as their skills align with the PP system, and there is another PP guy for the other unit (Oesterle?). As you say, it largely depends on what Tanguay wants to do. But part of the problem with Hronek on the point in most systems is that he doesn't have a RH triggerman to feed on the left flank. His point shot has value up top either way, but for one-timers he's left making a pass to a lefty on the right flank, which takes longer because he's RH. Gives the goalie more time to set up. Perhaps Tanguay implements a system that solves this issue, but otherwise, that is why I was an advocate for Hronek on the flank last season. Having only one RH with a good shot on the roster is pretty limiting.

If Leddy is QBing the first unit, I'd like to see Seider try QBing the 2nd unit at some point, with him feeding Hronek one-time smashes at that left flank. Could be deadly.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

No I’m not worried at all. He’s nowhere near that level and if he absolutely has to have that kind of money, bon voyage

That said

The let’s trade all our talented roster players for magic beans and weaponize cap space trend is going to get old

 

[Ricelund]

On my eye, he is not decent defensively.

Yzerman will want

A) size
B) defence at defence

Hronek won't offer either.

But he'll find a taker easily, because some other GM will overvalue points.

Agree with this. I think Hronek will end up being traded for a center or another defenseman more in the Yzerman mold some time in the next year or two.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Why would he trade him exactly?

I'm all for dealing players to accumulate draft picks but at some point you have to hang on to good ones. Hronek is a good defenseman and he's 23 years old. He's not a top pair guy but he's a solid middle pair.

These depth/security players are just as important to have locked down as your stars; but based on the recent ridiculous signings I can see him asking for upwards of 6 million and yeah, no thanks

 

[Martinez]

I could deal with 5.25 long term, any more id bridge and trade him

 

[Oddbob]

Anyone else worried that all of these outrageous D man contracts (of 9M+ ) is inflating the signing price for Hronek??

After seeing the prices, absolutely worried what he will get. I like him, but I also lean more toward he is a a #2-4 guy than a #1 and don't want to see anything higher than 5.5 long term.

 

[Oddbob]

He was forced to play 25-27 minutes. He'll be getting 2nd pair minutes, this season, if Seider plays well, which is about what Hronek should be paid for. Outlier years should always be considered as such, especially for d-men.

Edit: Upon further review of his stats, he has averaged 23 min/game, the last two seasons, but they are still outliers as we have yet to have fielded a competent defense corps. Detroit should be careful in offering him more than what his value to the team (going forward) will be worth. I have no problems trading him if Hronek feels differently. Now's not the time to be handing out big contracts that will have adverse effects on our team when they are competing.

People really need to temper the Seider ice time thing. The kid is still a rookie, and rookies need adjustment time. He may not be ready for more than 15-18 a night this year, and that also wouldn't be a negative thing, as defence is a hard position to adjust to in the NHL. People thinking he is just coming in and swooping up 23-26 minutes a night are just setting themselves up for disappointment. As a matter of fact, if he was playing that much this year, I would think that would mean we have significant injuries to overcome.

 

[Oddbob]

Also wanted to add, that Hedman the premiere defender in the NHL right now, didn't play 23 minutes a night until his 3rd season in the league and even then he wasn't exactly the Hedman we see today. Hedman wasn't Norris level until at least his 5th season in. Not trying to rain on Seider as I hope just like everyone here, that he is a Norris level guy for years to come, but expecting him to dominate right from the start is silly. Tampa was also a .500 and better team right off the start of Hedman's career, while Seider is joining a team thin on the blueline and everywhere else.

 

[Pavels Dog]

People really need to temper the Seider ice time thing. The kid is still a rookie, and rookies need adjustment time. He may not be ready for more than 15-18 a night this year, and that also wouldn't be a negative thing, as defence is a hard position to adjust to in the NHL. People thinking he is just coming in and swooping up 23-26 minutes a night are just setting themselves up for disappointment. As a matter of fact, if he was playing that much this year, I would think that would mean we have significant injuries to overcome.

Let's look at what some rookies have done for us:

Filip Hronek (D+3) - 19:58
Dennis Cholowski (D+3) - 18:15
Alexei Marchenko (D+5) - 16:50
Xavier Ouellet (D+6) - 17:58
Brendan Smith (D+6) - 18:24
Jakub Kindl (D+6) - 13:37
Niklas Kronwall (D+6) - 20:31
Nick Jensen (D+9) - 17:45


15-18 minutes would put him above Kindl, below Brendan Smith and Dennis Cholowski and on par with Marchenko/Ouellet/Jensen.

Call me crazy, but I expect Moritz Seider to outperform those players.

 

[Winger98]

If we want to try to sign Hronek for a longer term, I think you're looking at $5.5-6m for five or six seasons. Bridge would be around $4.5-4.7m, at least that's my guess. Also, I'm not sure I'd be all in on the Yzerman only likes size train. He drafted de Angelo, not exactly a big guy. Matt Carle, Radko Gudas, Anton Stralman, Jason Garrison, Dan Girardi, and Ryan Mcdonagh all played for different parts of at least a few seasons under Yzerman and none are taller than 6'1''.

The biggest knock on Hronek isn't his size, it is that he isn't great defensively. But I think those shortcomings are overstated and become a lot less of an issue if/when Seider slots in ahead of him and Hronek is bumped down to a lower QOC and a couple fewer minutes.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Hronek is not a guy that you keep on your team if you want long term success. Just because he played first pair minutes for our dumpster fire teams does not make him a first pair defenseman.

Here's a list of the top paid defensemen in the NHL.

NHL Rankings

Paying Hronek 6 to 6.5 makes him the 25th to 35th highest paid defenseman in the league, and there is no way he belongs in the discussion for being a top 35 guy in the league. Hell, I don't think he belongs in the discussion for top 60. For reference, CHARLIE MACAVOY is #60 on the defense pay scale. #50 is Shea Theodore, #40 is old man Duncan Keith narrowly edging Colton Parayko.

There are maybe 2 guys in the 40 to 60 range that Hronek is better than; Danny DeKeyser and Anton Stralman.

Additionally, Hronek isn't so good that you want to make him untradeable. 6+ million for a guy makes him really hard to move. Impossible if you're dumb enough to give him a NMC when he's nowhere near a franchise cornerstone player.

Giving Hronek that kind of contract is how you end up perpetually bad, and we're trying to not be that.

I think you can trade him for that contract I suggested while also having the contract age well if his production improves. He will be in his prime for the entire contract if you sign him for say 6 years. You also need to keep in mind he has been playing on one of the worst teams with the worst power play for his entire NHL carer. I suppose you could trade him before his next contract expires if you go the bridge deal route, that would be a reasonable plan. I do think his production will improve with Disco Dan no longer butchering the power play and more talent being added to the roster.

I am not 100% sold on keeping Hronek, even though he is one of the few legacy guys who actually developed; if Yzerman wants to recoup some value from him via trade I'm fine with that.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

No reason he won't be at least close to that mark. With an improving roster, less defensive responsibilities in the near future, and no real threat to his PP time, he should easily continue to put up points.

I think it's unreasonable to expect a player's point production to stay the same while their icetime decreases. There's plenty of evidence to prove that when you play less, you score less with very few exceptions.

Cutting 3 minutes of Hronek's icetime per game probably cuts his scoring by 0.10 to 0.15ppg. On top of that Hronek won't be the focal point of the offense coming from the back end as much either because we will have Leddy.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

These depth/security players are just as important to have locked down as your stars; but based on the recent ridiculous signings I can see him asking for upwards of 6 million and yeah, no thanks

True. D-men weren't exactly signing bargain deals in this market.

To be clear I'm not even saying Hronek is a core piece or untradeable. If the price is right the Wings are still in a position where almost anyone on the team is worth moving. But the defense has had a crapload of turnover and been duct taped together for several seasons now.

The certainty by some people here that Hronek will be dumped for assets and we needn't worry because all our prospects will work out is a bit ridiculous.

 

[newfy]

Man this board has some brutal takes these days.

Right handed, 23 year old dman that over the course of 3ish seasons has produced at a pretty consistent 40 point pace on a bad team. People are talking about trading him because theyre worried about the cap?

Trading your proven, good, young NHL players because theyve earned a solid contract is a great way to end up a dog shit team for a long time. Yes, he plays a lot of mins because he has to on a bad team, he also has never had a partner worth anything and hes still always productive. Hes easily trending to being a top 2 dman but probably should trade him because he earned a solid bag of money playing well

 

[Run the Jewels]

Man this board has some brutal takes these days.

Right handed, 23 year old dman that over the course of 3ish seasons has produced at a pretty consistent 40 point pace on a bad team. People are talking about trading him because theyre worried about the cap?

Trading your proven, good, young NHL players because theyve earned a solid contract is a great way to end up a dog shit team for a long time. Yes, he plays a lot of mins because he has to on a bad team, he also has never had a partner worth anything and hes still always productive. Hes easily trending to being a top 2 dman but probably should trade him because he earned a solid bag of money playing well

Yeah, I proposed signing him for 6 years to get the best AAV and it would take Hronek through what you could reasonably expect to be his prime. He may age well, but you can make that decision when he hits 28 or 29 on whether he is still a core part of your team. Also I don't think you'd have any problem moving that contract if it comes to that. Offensive d-men are usually pretty easy to move if that is the route Yzerman wants to go.

 

[jaster]

Man this board has some brutal takes these days.

Right handed, 23 year old dman that over the course of 3ish seasons has produced at a pretty consistent 40 point pace on a bad team. People are talking about trading him because theyre worried about the cap?

Trading your proven, good, young NHL players because theyve earned a solid contract is a great way to end up a dog shit team for a long time. Yes, he plays a lot of mins because he has to on a bad team, he also has never had a partner worth anything and hes still always productive. Hes easily trending to being a top 2 dman but probably should trade him because he earned a solid bag of money playing well

Little surprised at how undervalued Hronek is around here. Maybe I shouldn't be. I'm not mad, I'm just disappointed

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Hronek is the best defenseman we've developed since Nik Kronwall. Yes, I recognize that's as much a statement on how poor our blueline development has been as it is a statement on Hronek, but that's reality.

The only prospect who looks clearly poised to surpass Hronek is Seider, who cost a #6 pick. Hopefully Edvinsson joins that camp on the opposite side.

Realistically, we will be very lucky if Johansson, Tuomisto, Buium, Wallinder, Viro, McIsaac, etc. reach Hronek's level.

I get that people don't love every aspect of his game, but it's kind of wild to me how many act as if he's dispensable considering a) it's taken us a decade to develop a top 4 RHD, and b) we have nobody poised to replace him if he goes. Had we drafted Drysdale or Clarke then it's a different scenario, but at the moment any trade where Hronek goes leaves us with a glaring hole at RHD behind Seider (unless you get a similar calibre player or prospect coming back).

Assuming Seider can develop into a top pairing role, I feel like we'll have finally sorted a position (RHD) that's taken us ages to sort. Personally I'd prefer to lock up Hronek long-term. I don't have a strong enough understanding of the cap to put a hard number on it, but I think folks hoping for under 4 mil are going to be disappointed. Personally I'd bet on a deal in the 4.75-5.25m range.

Edit: On analytics- I don't think they should be ignored, but I also don't think they accurately reflect the context surrounding Hronek's performance.