Speculation: Hronek value?

[The Zetterberg Era]

Draft class comparables (all best scoring defenceman from 2016 class)

Players over 100 career games

Points per game and TOI
1. Adam Fox - (0.71 ppg) - 21:27min - playing on ELC
2. Jakob Chychrun - (0.56) - 22:53 - 4.6M caphit, 4 years left
3. Samuel Girard - (0.56) - 22:05min - 5.0M caphit, 5 years left
4. Charlie McAvoy - (0.53) - 23:31min - 4.9M caphit, 1 year left
5. Mikhail Sergachev - (0.51) - 21:05min - 4.8M caphit, 2 years left
6. Filip Hronek - (0.47) - 23:40min - RFA
7. Ryan Lindgren - (0.27) - 18:09min - 3.0M, 3 years left
8. Dante Fabbro - (0.22) - 19:08min - 2.4M, 2 years left

He is quite there with ~4.5M caphit, a little bit lesser production that those 2.-5. guys. And 3-year deal keeps him as RFA, that's what Yzerman is probably targeting.

Also, in three years we will see how big role Seider is gonna take (his ELC would end at same point), and can match their salaries better, if Hronek is also part of the future.

Now where would you rank Hronek defensively, albeit with some really tough matchups? Because that should be a part of this cap hit for me. I mean better than Fabbro, how willing are we to go on anybody else, Chychrun does struggle in his own end at times, but I think we can say the other guys on the list are all better in their own end some of them by significant margins.

I mean I am not worried about moving Hronek either though, so I think this signing has that flexibility similar to Mantha, so if Yzerman gives him more years I just kind of expect him to get more out of the asset if it comes to that.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I think it's unreasonable to expect a player's point production to stay the same while their icetime decreases. There's plenty of evidence to prove that when you play less, you score less with very few exceptions.

Cutting 3 minutes of Hronek's icetime per game probably cuts his scoring by 0.10 to 0.15ppg. On top of that Hronek won't be the focal point of the offense coming from the back end as much either because we will have Leddy.

We have been such a low scoring team though. Hronek absolutely has the potential to put up big point totals on a functional powerplay, and to be more effective at even-strength offense if he's not forced to play the toughest minutes against the best players.

Hronek is a secret weapon type of d-man, much like Kronwall was back in the day. As a #3D he's gonna be fantastic.

 

[deca guard]

We have been such a low scoring team though. Hronek absolutely has the potential to put up big point totals on a functional powerplay, and to be more effective at even-strength offense if he's not forced to play the toughest minutes against the best players.

Hronek is a secret weapon type of d-man, much like Kronwall was back in the day. As a #3D he's gonna be fantastic.

yes , this . he doesnt have elite iq or perfect size , but his competitivness makes everything alright

 

[Henkka]

yes , this . he doesnt have elite iq or perfect size , but his competitivness makes everything alright

Too bad Edvinsson isn't more ready yet.

He would be perfect partner for Hronek. They would compliment each other very well.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

I’ve just never been a big fan of hronek, his decision making and sedans in his own end is completely brutal sometimes. I don’t ever think he will really be a positive defender and I’m not looking for that for the future of the team. Now that doesn’t mean I say trade him that’s just dumb but let him keep developing before he gets his bag. I say 5.2 x 3 years.

 

[Henkka]

Now where would you rank Hronek defensively, albeit with some really tough matchups? Because that should be a part of this cap hit for me. I mean better than Fabbro, how willing are we to go on anybody else, Chychrun does struggle in his own end at times, but I think we can say the other guys on the list are all better in their own end some of them by significant margins.

I mean I am not worried about moving Hronek either though, so I think this signing has that flexibility similar to Mantha, so if Yzerman gives him more years I just kind of expect him to get more out of the asset if it comes to that.

Plusminus is quite tough to notice from that 2016 class group:

Last 2 seasons
----------------
McAvoy, +46
Adam Fox, +41
Lindgren, +36
Sergachev, +20
Girard, +16
Chychrun, -2
Fabbro, -8
Hronek, -56

As we know, plusminus is not the best possible stat to judge people, especially when biggest part of this 2-season data come from one of the most abysmal NHL seasons.

Like, McAvoy has played behind Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak most of the time, Lindgren-Fox behind Panarin etc.

 

[deca guard]

now lets put mcavoy-sergachev-girard on detroit and hronek on tbay and look at +/-

hroneks team and partner have been VERY weak his entire career while hes had to play against opponants top units ,
with weak partners and forward units hroneks had to spend millions of minutes in own end trying to prevent
damage plus get puck out . this does not lead to pretty numbers . but he passes the eye test in my book

hes made to play on 2nd pair with a d responsible partner so he can look to help the offense , in that condition
he would bring points while also still be solid when opponant has puck . a scrappy player that doesnt shy away
from physical conflicts . hronek / edvinsson looks to be a top notch 2nd pairing of the future

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

As at @Henkka pointed out I am not a big +/- guy. I think you can blame some of that number on his team. The other part when I said Hronek was not good defensively was just watching him every game thus far. Now he isn't wash out of the league bad in terms of how Cholowski never took the step to be passable or at least hasn't yet. But it isn't a strength of his game and it isn't just playing a little over his head. While that doesn't help, he makes poor reads and does things that wouldn't be good in Tampa.

Seider coming up and probably by Mid-season displacing him, should help him a lot in terms of slotting into a second pairing. Having a partner that can take up more slack defensively in the future should help him. Reducing his minutes should lesson his defensive issues though it can also slightly dip his offensive impact. We will see, but Hronek isn't going to be better than McAvoy in his own end ever for instance.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I’ve just never been a big fan of hronek, his decision making and sedans in his own end is completely brutal sometimes. I don’t ever think he will really be a positive defender and I’m not looking for that for the future of the team. Now that doesn’t mean I say trade him that’s just dumb but let him keep developing before he gets his bag. I say 5.2 x 3 years.

Give it a few months. When Seider has started taking tougher matchups and Hronek gets reduced minutes and responsibility he will all of a sudden look so much better.

 

[deca guard]

some are acting as if at age 23 without having yet played a full 82 game schedule hroneks ceilinged out . but i see the competitor , talent and ruggedness mix in this guy and believe hes still learning the ropes ands due this season for a break out year . not saying hes a star , saying hes a rock solid 2nd pairing guy that doesnt grow on trees and eventually we'd all be ecstatic to have him on a long term at 6+ . and im all for him being a long term core peice

 

[Hen Kolland]

As at @Henkka pointed out I am not a big +/- guy. I think you can blame some of that number on his team. The other part when I said Hronek was not good defensively was just watching him every game thus far. Now he isn't wash out of the league bad in terms of how Cholowski never took the step to be passable or at least hasn't yet. But it isn't a strength of his game and it isn't just playing a little over his head. While that doesn't help, he makes poor reads and does things that wouldn't be good in Tampa.

Seider coming up and probably by Mid-season displacing him, should help him a lot in terms of slotting into a second pairing. Having a partner that can take up more slack defensively in the future should help him. Reducing his minutes should lesson his defensive issues though it can also slightly dip his offensive impact. We will see, but Hronek isn't going to be better than McAvoy in his own end ever for instance.

I think for a while we (collectively as a fan base) may have overrated Hronek's defensive ability because he was scrappy and a battler in his own end. You couldn't knock him for looking uninterested or zoned out. But really the last two years really started to show the warts that he has in his own end. It's a lot of movement with not a whole lot of substance.

The fear for me is that the offensive numbers were really nice, but very less impressive in total as to how they came about this past year. The shot is becoming more reminiscent of Frk than it is Ovechkin for the sake of simplicity. His shots have the potential to be dangerous, but the consistency that he puts the shot on net in dangerous locations is just underwhelming. I still don't view him as a natural powerplay quarterback. I think ideally he would be "sheltered" by playing the second pairing with a defensively capable partner. Let him play the left flank on the 2nd powerplay unit. Limit his minutes so you can leverage his best skills when the time calls for it.

He's a nice player. A player I would like to see locked up for a decent amount of term. Try to buy his entire prime with a nice raise without overcommitting financially or locking up the decline years.

 

[Hen Kolland]

some are acting as if at age 23 without having yet played a full 82 game schedule hroneks ceilinged out . but i see the competitor , talent and ruggedness mix in this guy and believe hes still learning the ropes ands due this season for a break out year . not saying hes a star , saying hes a rock solid 2nd pairing guy that doesnt grow on trees and eventually we'd all be ecstatic to have him on a long term at 6+ . and im all for him being a long term core peice

He's done absolutely nothing to command a long term $6 million contract. Especially if you view him as a 2nd pairing guy.

 

[Henkka]

He's done absolutely nothing to command a long term $6 million contract. Especially if you view him as a 2nd pairing guy.

Anyways, short-term is the way to go, so we will see how our defence will sort itself with Seider and Lindström coming regulars.

I think our right side has quite ideal potential, like Seider becoming the future Norris candidate as all-around defenceman with highest minutes, Hronek being offensive 2nd pair guy, and Lindström being defensive 3rd pair guy.

Those would really slot well, if all develop well, but I also understand if they are used as trade baits (except Seider).

 

[deca guard]

He's done absolutely nothing to command a long term $6 million contract. Especially if you view him as a 2nd pairing guy.

- if you pay him long term now you avoid him going ufa in his prime , or paying him huger coin when the ufa time arrives . its a gamble for detroit , but on hronek i take that gamble . and for him it sets him up for life creating a loyal lifer wing attitude on the roster . and 6$ three years from now becomes a bargain for detroit when he start needing cap space ...

 

[golffuul]

- if you pay him long term now you avoid him going ufa in his prime , or paying him huger coin when the ufa time arrives . its a gamble for detroit , but on hronek i take that gamble . and for him it sets him up for life creating a loyal lifer wing attitude on the roster . and 6$ three years from now becomes a bargain for detroit when he start needing cap space ...

If you don’t pay him long term and keep the cap hit lower, you hedge your bets against him not being as “productive” being in a lesser role and his cap hit, later, won’t be as large. And you also get a better gauge as to how he fits long-term within Yzerman’s plans. I think it’s either a 3 year deal or a 5 year bridge. Anything more just has too much uncertainty to it.

 

[Hen Kolland]

- if you pay him long term now you avoid him going ufa in his prime , or paying him huger coin when the ufa time arrives . its a gamble for detroit , but on hronek i take that gamble . and for him it sets him up for life creating a loyal lifer wing attitude on the roster . and 6$ three years from now becomes a bargain for detroit when he start needing cap space ...

I think if you went with a lot of term and a modest raise, you could get him locked up. I don't think you'd have to offer $6M to lock him up. Maybe like $4M would be ideal. Keep in mind he's coming off a deal that paid him less than $1M because it was the ELC.

If you came to the table and said, take this deal... $20 million for 5 years. It's a substantial raise for him, it isn't super far off the contracts that Henkka brought up. It allows us to buy this early prime up, and if he doesn't improve, we don't end up on an albatross deal. If he improves, he gets to go the UFA route and collect a pay day. And nothing stops us from being the team that gives him that pay day if Yzerman and Co. continue to manage the cap structure of this team in a very pragmatic way.

 

[Henkka]

- if you pay him long term now you avoid him going ufa in his prime , or paying him huger coin when the ufa time arrives . its a gamble for detroit , but on hronek i take that gamble . and for him it sets him up for life creating a loyal lifer wing attitude on the roster . and 6$ three years from now becomes a bargain for detroit when he start needing cap space ...

I think what will and could happen in future is like this:

We sign Hronek for 3-years. Will still be RFA after that contract.

Right-side guys at 2021-22 season:
----------------------
Hronek, 3 years 4.5M
Seider, 3 years, ELC 925k
Lindström, 2 years, 850k deal

After 2 years, Lindström will get extended, cheap, 2.5M multiple years, and still 3rd pair defenceman.

Season 2023-24
-------------------
Seider, ELC, 1 year left
Hronek, 4.5M, 1 year left
Lindström, 2.5M, extended for 4-5 years

Season 2024-25
-----------------
Seider extended for 8 years, 8 million
Antti Tuomisto comes from college, ELC, 2 years 925k
Lindström, 2.5M 3-4 years left.

Hronek traded at off-season.

On that point, we have 23-year old 6'4 Seider, 23-year old 6'4 Tuomisto and 25-year old 6'2 Lindström on the right side.

21- year-old 6'5 Edvinsson could be knocking a spot as LD. 23-year-old Albert Johansson as well.

 

[golffuul]

I think what will and could happen in future is like this:

We sign Hronek for 3-years. Will still be RFA after that contract.

Right-side guys at 2021-22 season:
----------------------
Hronek, 3 years 4.5M
Seider, 3 years, ELC 925k
Lindström, 2 years, 850k deal

After 2 years, Lindström will get extended, cheap, 2.5M multiple years, and still 3rd pair defenceman.

Season 2023-24
-------------------
Seider, ELC, 1 year left
Hronek, 4.5M, 1 year left
Lindström, 2.5M, extended for 4-5 years

Season 2024-25
-----------------
Seider extended for 8 years, 8 million
Antti Tuomisto comes from college, ELC, 2 years 925k
Lindström, 2.5M 3-4 years left.

Hronek traded at off-season.

That's my gut feeling as well. While I would love for him to pan out as a long-term player for this team, I just think that if we have even 2 more of our D prospects pan out, that Hronek will eventually be a cap casualty, because the Cap won't go up significantly until '25-'26 season.

 

[Henkka]

Merge these threads.

 

[Shaman464]

Hronek's value is what you'd expect from a #4 d-man. He's not great in his own zone, but he's not Cholo band. His offense will make/break his game. It'll be good to pair him with a defensive dman.

 

[Revenge of Gru]

We have been such a low scoring team though. Hronek absolutely has the potential to put up big point totals on a functional powerplay, and to be more effective at even-strength offense if he's not forced to play the toughest minutes against the best players.

Hronek is a secret weapon type of d-man, much like Kronwall was back in the day. As a #3D he's gonna be fantastic.

I agree. He's like a Kronwall/Rafalski hybrid. Slotted properly and with talent around him he is gonna be very good. Unfortunately he isn't a giant so he doesn't really fit the Yzerman preferred type of defenseman. Hopefully his skill will keep him from being traded.

 

[Henkka]

Draft class comparables (all best scoring defenceman from 2016 class)

He is quite there with ~4.5M caphit, a little bit lesser production that those 2.-5. guys. And 3-year deal keeps him as RFA, that's what Yzerman is probably targeting.

I think what will and could happen in future is like this:

We sign Hronek for 3-years. Will still be RFA after that contract.

Right-side guys at 2021-22 season:
----------------------
Hronek, 3 years 4.5M
Seider, 3 years, ELC 925k
Lindström, 2 years, 850k deal

I was wrong.

Yzerman had the balls to put it even lower.