Speculation: Hronek to Philly

[The Zetterberg Era]

I would ask for a lot for him, given how well he has produced at such a young age on some bad teams.

And if I don't get anything that blows me away, I'd keep him. I have not really paid attention to Nolan Patrick for a few years, so can't say if that is a good idea or not. I would be open to trading Hronek for a young LD or Center. But that's about it. If something could be massaged for Werenski, I'd bite on that. Werenski is one of my favorite LD's.

Top 15 pick and Nolan Patrick might be a lot depending on how the Wings brass feel about Nolan Patrick assuming their doctors give it the green light. It is also the kind of trade Yzerman said he is open to right now which is important.

I think the harder part about doing it with Hronek, is for me it also sort of means you do this with Bertuzzi in the middle of next season assuming he proves healthy. Yzerman would have used his best inherited assets from Holland save just keeping local guy and always presumptive and now actual captain Larkin. It's bold but to flip Mantha for a 1st (not all hit but that is hopefully a nice piece) and Vrana, trade Hronek for a 1st (at 14 we better hit or our fault) and Patrick, trade Bertuzzi for a 1st and young NHL player that we like a lot.

It has some chance to it. But it is also the area most of us think Yzerman excels in. Big trades and drafting. I would be fascinated to watch it, I would give him a lot less grief. He can also role into free agency after the Wright draft with a ton of money. I can certainly see the long term thinking, we won't hit on everything there, but when you consider where our two picks should be in those drafts that is a ton of high end talent infusion.

 

[19 for president]

Granted Kronwall wasn't in the league at Hronek's age, injuries being a part of that... But Hronek has a long ways to go still to get to that level, especially in his own end.

Kronwall topped out as #1 D-man in this league, he was a top 15 D-man in the NHL for a decent little stretch. I just don't see that level in Hronek. I hope he proves me wrong, but find that idea to be kind of downgrading what Kronwall really was. Even when he occupied the role of second pairing guy he was a really high end first pairing reputation kind of guy with most around the league pretty much from 08 until the knees gave out.

I guess it is a nice goal to have. We will have to see what being slotted correctly does for him next year. I know there is the temper expectations crowd on Seider, but I really don't see how come New Years, Seider isn't our #1 D-man and playing the heaviest minutes on the team.

I don't necessarily disagree on Kronner but he also greatly benefitted from being able to get up to NHL speed behind guys like Lids and Chelios. He also didn't really come into his own until he got a solid partner in Brad Stuart.

I also think Kronner's best years were very much overshadowed by playing behind Lids, but there were questions about both his offensive and defensive games. Much like Hronek he wasn't your protypical PP QB or point shot guy.

Hronek's best partner since coming to Detroit has been a wonky back DDK. His PPG pace is right up there with many of Kronner's best seasons. He's never going to be your teams ideal shut down guys but get him another top 4 guy to play with and I think we'll see at least a Kronwall light career out of him.

 

[Gniwder]

Pass

If we were going to do this we should have done it last year and taken Drysdale with our 4th overall pick instead of Raymond. Drysdale is a much better prospect than Clarke.

Should've picked Drysdale anyways. Hronek can play the left side, he did it often after the TDL when Nemeth and Merrill got traded.

 

[Go Wings]

Should've picked Drysdale anyways. Hronek can play the left side, he did it often after the TDL when Nemeth and Merrill got traded.

That could be true
We will find out in 5 years

 

[Run the Jewels]

Granted Kronwall wasn't in the league at Hronek's age, injuries being a part of that... But Hronek has a long ways to go still to get to that level, especially in his own end.

Kronwall topped out as #1 D-man in this league, he was a top 15 D-man in the NHL for a decent little stretch. I just don't see that level in Hronek. I hope he proves me wrong, but find that idea to be kind of downgrading what Kronwall really was. Even when he occupied the role of second pairing guy he was a really high end first pairing reputation kind of guy with most around the league pretty much from 08 until the knees gave out.

I guess it is a nice goal to have. We will have to see what being slotted correctly does for him next year. I know there is the temper expectations crowd on Seider, but I really don't see how come New Years, Seider isn't our #1 D-man and playing the heaviest minutes on the team.

Ken Holland went after Ryan Suter because he knew Kronwall wasn't a high quality 1D. Like most things during the tail end of the Holland era, Kronwall was forced to play above his abilities, but his play fell off pretty quickly when he was forced into that 1D role. He was excellent as a 3D on those great teams from the late 2000s.

 

[Run the Jewels]

That's my thought process too. Selling young productive top 4Dmen needs overpayment at minimum.

B/w 4 of 7: AlJo, McIsaac, Wallinder, Lindstrom, Viro, Tuo, Sebrango we're ok.

Add: Werenski/top pair UFA & run 8D, now we're competitive.

Werenski-Seider
Power-Hronek
Johansson-Lindstrom

+2 of:
McIsaac/Viro/Wallinder (the left over is trade bait/GR)
Tuo/Sebrango (trade bait/GR/bust)

I can see moving Hronek if you think you have a pretty good shot at Werenski. I just wonder if we end up being too cap heavy on defense if we have Werenski, Seider, Power, and Hronek. Good problem to have though.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Ken Holland went after Ryan Suter because he knew Kronwall wasn't a high quality 1D. Like most things during the tail end of the Holland era, Kronwall was forced to play above his abilities, but his play fell off pretty quickly when he was forced into that 1D role. He was excellent as a 3D on those great teams from the late 2000s.

Kronwall put up four straight top 10 D-man scoring finishes while being a top 20ish guy in ice time. He was a #1 D-man for half a decade, really probably a couple years earlier but Lidstrom was still better and going. Holland going out to get Suter would have changed a lot of things, unfortunately it didn't happen. Yes that keeps us a true contender longer, Evgeny Malkin isn't really a #2 center either..... Kronwall was one of the best 30 D-man in the league for a good chunk of his career and easily top 60 for a decade. To pretend he wasn't a top pairing d-man with significant time as a #1 in the league just doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

I would be ecstatic to have another Kronwall, he is one of the best D-man in franchise history, which isn't a small statement, he was a terrific player once he got over those early injuries and before his career ending ones really took him. If we got a guy like him on the second pairing again we are likely a very good team. Hronek would have to come a ways yet to really be that kind of player.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't necessarily disagree on Kronner but he also greatly benefitted from being able to get up to NHL speed behind guys like Lids and Chelios. He also didn't really come into his own until he got a solid partner in Brad Stuart.

I also think Kronner's best years were very much overshadowed by playing behind Lids, but there were questions about both his offensive and defensive games. Much like Hronek he wasn't your protypical PP QB or point shot guy.

Hronek's best partner since coming to Detroit has been a wonky back DDK. His PPG pace is right up there with many of Kronner's best seasons. He's never going to be your teams ideal shut down guys but get him another top 4 guy to play with and I think we'll see at least a Kronwall light career out of him.

By who? Kronwall was a terrific skater up until his last few years in the league. His defensive game was pretty good and his offensive game was also solid. Obviously not as good as Lidstrom but Kronwall was a legit top pair defenseman in the league between 2007 and 2014 or 2015. Injuries and old age caught up to him, as well as the dwindling talent of the Red Wings roster.

His problem between 2007 and 2011 was being behind Lidstrom and Rafalski on the depth chart, then from 2012 until his retirement the guy had an anchor for a partner most of the time in Jonathan Eriksson. Kronwall was great but he wasn't so great that he could carry a dead weight partner like Lidstrom could night in and night out. Like the rest of the mortals in the league he needed a reliable partner.

Hronek and Kronwall are not really comparable, in my opinion.

 

[jaster]

By who? Kronwall was a terrific skater up until his last few years in the league. His defensive game was pretty good and his offensive game was also solid. Obviously not as good as Lidstrom but Kronwall was a legit top pair defenseman in the league between 2007 and 2014 or 2015. Injuries and old age caught up to him, as well as the dwindling talent of the Red Wings roster.

His problem between 2007 and 2011 was being behind Lidstrom and Rafalski on the depth chart, then from 2012 until his retirement the guy had an anchor for a partner most of the time in Jonathan Eriksson. Kronwall was great but he wasn't so great that he could carry a dead weight partner like Lidstrom could night in and night out. Like the rest of the mortals in the league he needed a reliable partner.

Hronek and Kronwall are not really comparable, in my opinion.

Hronek has a shot at further developing and getting closer to Kronwall's level than he is, and I think the guy is often underrated around here, but I agree, they are clearly in different tiers at this point.

This seems to be another case of people remembering too much of a player's final years, rather than their entire career, or their prime, or even the bulk of their career. Kronwall didn't have quite the longevity of a lot of other top dmen, but at his best was no doubt a #1 for a period of time, and a top-pairing level for most of his career.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Kronwall put up four straight top 10 D-man scoring finishes while being a top 20ish guy in ice time. He was a #1 D-man for half a decade, really probably a couple years earlier but Lidstrom was still better and going. Holland going out to get Suter would have changed a lot of things, unfortunately it didn't happen. Yes that keeps us a true contender longer, Evgeny Malkin isn't really a #2 center either..... Kronwall was one of the best 30 D-man in the league for a good chunk of his career and easily top 60 for a decade. To pretend he wasn't a top pairing d-man with significant time as a #1 in the league just doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

I would be ecstatic to have another Kronwall, he is one of the best D-man in franchise history, which isn't a small statement, he was a terrific player once he got over those early injuries and before his career ending ones really took him. If we got a guy like him on the second pairing again we are likely a very good team. Hronek would have to come a ways yet to really be that kind of player.

Kronwall's highest position in Norris Trophy voting was 10th and that was one time. He quickly faded and was no longer getting votes as of 2015. Ryan Suter has been a lock between the top 5 and top 10 in Norris voting for a long time. Ken Holland knew Kronwall wasn't going to cut it as a 1D.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I can see moving Hronek if you think you have a pretty good shot at Werenski. I just wonder if we end up being too cap heavy on defense if we have Werenski, Seider, Power, and Hronek. Good problem to have though.

This gives me an idea...Instead of working on a risk analysis that's due monday I'm being incredibly ADD and digging through capfriendly.

What should a team's cap percentage look like per position? Here's the breakdown of the top 8 teams in the league's cap hit % by position (Forward, Defense and goalie) not including players on IR and LTIR. Note that some of these numbers will exceed a combined total of 100% for teams going over the cap. Numbers are playoff cap numbers from Capfriendly. I'm choosing the top 8 teams in the standings due to their success.

Colorado
Forwards: 68
Defense: 23.8
Goalies: 9.7
*They have an additional 15.4% of cap total on IR or LTIR

Vegas
Forwards: 60.8
Defense: 30
Goalies: 15.8

Carolina
Forwards: 55.6
Defense: 35.5
Goalies: 9.8

Florida
Forwards: 46.7
Defense: 38.3
Goalies: 16.2
*Ekblad is on IR with a cap hit of 9.2%

Pittsburgh
Forwards: 66.9
Defense: 32.6
Goalies: 8.6

Toronto
Forwards: 72
Defense: 27
Goalies: 9.8

Washington
Forwards: 71.4
Defense: 33.7
Goalies: 5.1
*2 players on IR and LTIR that make up 4.9% of the cap.

Tampa Bay
Forwards: 72.5
Defense: 35
Goalies: 15
*2 players on LTIR that have a combined cap hit of 9.2%.

Average % on forwards: 64.24
Average % on defense: 31.99
Average % on goalies: 11.25

I think you can make a successful team with cap percentage breakdowns at or similar to the average +/- 3% to get it to 100 or less. (Luck and cap circumvention like Tampa Bay doesn't hurt either. Neither does picking up quality FAs for dirt cheap like Anthony DuClair or smart trades like Sam Bennett)

 

[MBH]

I'd hate this honestly. Think Patrick is is very damaged goods and I really doubt you get a player as good as Hronek at #14OA this year. I'd swerve 100%.

I don't see what we gain here other than prolonging the rebuild.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I can see moving Hronek if you think you have a pretty good shot at Werenski. I just wonder if we end up being too cap heavy on defense if we have Werenski, Seider, Power, and Hronek. Good problem to have though.

.........."Werenski, Seider, Power, and Hronek"
22-23: zwUFA + msELC (1yr from LT/bridge) + opELC + fhLT/Bridge

 

[Run the Jewels]

Good analysis, I do think that if Werenski, Seider, Hronek and Power were all here eventually they would combined cost you somewhere close to $28 mil. That doesn't leave much room for anyone other than replacement level guys or really young guys on ELCs.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Good analysis, I do think that if Werenski, Seider, Hronek and Power were all here eventually they would combined cost you somewhere close to $28 mil. That doesn't leave much room for anyone other than replacement level guys or really young guys on ELCs.

The only way that works is if 2 of them are on their ELCs or bridge contracts. Werenski is looking like a 7.5 mil guy. Prime Seider is going to push that limit or exceed it if he becomes as good as we think. Hronek is going to be a 4 to 5 mil guy. We're not sure what Power will be but if he comes as advertised then we'd expect another 6+ mil on defense. Let's go with your number of 28 million on 4 defensemen. We'll keep the cap limit the same at 81.5 mil.

4 defensemen at 28 mil make up 34.56% of the cap total. It's not necessarily a bad way to build but I think the smarter option would be to make that big 4 defense a big 3 and spread that around more on the 4th and 5th defensemen on the team while leaving the 6th and 7th spot for a cheap savvy vet or a youngster on an ELC.

 

[Tetsuo]

Kronwall put up four straight top 10 D-man scoring finishes while being a top 20ish guy in ice time. He was a #1 D-man for half a decade, really probably a couple years earlier but Lidstrom was still better and going. Holland going out to get Suter would have changed a lot of things, unfortunately it didn't happen. Yes that keeps us a true contender longer, Evgeny Malkin isn't really a #2 center either..... Kronwall was one of the best 30 D-man in the league for a good chunk of his career and easily top 60 for a decade. To pretend he wasn't a top pairing d-man with significant time as a #1 in the league just doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

I would be ecstatic to have another Kronwall, he is one of the best D-man in franchise history, which isn't a small statement, he was a terrific player once he got over those early injuries and before his career ending ones really took him. If we got a guy like him on the second pairing again we are likely a very good team. Hronek would have to come a ways yet to really be that kind of player.

Yeah Hronek could be that guy, but people forget than Kronner was a 1D in his own right for good half-decade. I'm not really confident Hronek gets there, no knock on him, so a mid-1st + definitely perks my interest. He can look off forwards on another team for the right price.

 

[jkutswings]

Can somebody please dig up the value chart for draft picks again? I'm curious what 14 overall and 25 overall would add up to. I'd guess around 8 overall, but seeing the numbers (and having to slightly overpay) would be interesting to see what that hypothetical Hronek deal could yield if packaged with the Washington pick from Mantha.

 

[Oddbob]

Can somebody please dig up the value chart for draft picks again? I'm curious what 14 overall and 25 overall would add up to. I'd guess around 8 overall, but seeing the numbers (and having to slightly overpay) would be interesting to see what that hypothetical Hronek deal could yield if packaged with the Washington pick from Mantha.

To me, the few spots you would actually get make it worth it to just keep your picks.

 

[jkutswings]

To me, the few spots you would actually get make it worth it to just keep your picks.

Most likely yes. But I'd hope that Yzerman and Co are always looking at all options.

 

[Gniwder]

To me, the few spots you would actually get make it worth it to just keep your picks.

There's a lot of intriguing players slotted to go in the second round that have only played a handful of games this season. I'd rather see the Wings keep their picks as well.

I think the team is well positioned in terms of picks, I don't see any reason to move up or down unless there's value added.

 

[kliq]

Kronwall's highest position in Norris Trophy voting was 10th and that was one time. He quickly faded and was no longer getting votes as of 2015. Ryan Suter has been a lock between the top 5 and top 10 in Norris voting for a long time. Ken Holland knew Kronwall wasn't going to cut it as a 1D.

I think this proves the point of @The Zetterberg Era more then your point. A #1 D-man really is a guy who is top 30 in the league (ie. good enough to b the #1 guy on a team) which placing top 10 in Norris voting kind of proves as true. It sounds to me like you are arguing that Kronwall wasnt an elite #1 D-man, that I agree with, him not being a #1? That was not true. Holland wasnt Suter because that would have given him an elite D man with another #1 which is a combination that most cup winners have their roster.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Can somebody please dig up the value chart for draft picks again? I'm curious what 14 overall and 25 overall would add up to. I'd guess around 8 overall, but seeing the numbers (and having to slightly overpay) would be interesting to see what that hypothetical Hronek deal could yield if packaged with the Washington pick from Mantha.

Here's the cost of trading up.

And another.

Draft pick success probabilities between 2000 and 2009.

From the draft to the NHL: A round-by-round look at the league's skaters and goalies
From 2018. Players in the league based on draft position. I find it interesting that there at the time of the article there were almost as many undrafted players in the league than guys drafted in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds combined.

 

[Run the Jewels]

I think this proves the point of @The Zetterberg Era more then your point. A #1 D-man really is a guy who is top 30 in the league (ie. good enough to b the #1 guy on a team) which placing top 10 in Norris voting kind of proves as true. It sounds to me like you are arguing that Kronwall wasnt an elite #1 D-man, that I agree with, him not being a #1? That was not true. Holland wasnt Suter because that would have given him an elite D man with another #1 which is a combination that most cup winners have their roster.

Well there are 31 #1Dmen in the NHL. The goal here wasn't to bag on Kronwall, who had a great career. It was to point out that Kronwall was a #1 Dman due to circumstance, that's all. He had a nice run for 3-4 years before the wear and tear took it's toll. He was at his best as a #3 dman and I feel like that is Hronek's best spot in Detroit.

 

[MBH]

Kronwall was 31 when he officially became the #1 defenseman on the Wings.
He went 5-24-29 in 48 games and was -5.
That's a solid 50 point pace.
He put up 49 points and 44 points at 32 and 33 and then started declining quickly.

Kronwall was a legit #1 defenseman from 10-11 to 14-15.
Not an "elite" top 10ish kind of guy.
In 10-11 and 11-12, he simply played behind Lidstrom,
From 12-13 to 14-15 he finished 10th, 13th and 14th in Norris voting.
Just outside of the top 10.
That's not elite. But it's clearly legit #1 territory.

 

[kliq]

Well there are 31 #1Dmen in the NHL. The goal here wasn't to bag on Kronwall, who had a great career. It was to point out that Kronwall was a #1 Dman due to circumstance, that's all. He had a nice run for 3-4 years before the wear and tear took it's toll. He was at his best as a #3 dman and I feel like that is Hronek's best spot in Detroit.

I guess now it’s 32.....but regardless, I won’t disagree with you that he was better as a #3 than as a #1 dman as playing against second pairing guys any top dman is going to excel, and if that’s the situation, then most likely you have a very solid team.