Hronek, Filip

[raymond23]

Looks like its just expected goals for and against to me? Am I missing where it takes quality of competition into account?

I believe it’s mentioned somewhere in that Twitter thread. Or maybe I’m mistaken and it’s straight up xGF

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Oh come on, man...

yeah he's not exactly making an apples to apples comparison there.

Brett Lebda playing 14 to 16 minutes a night on a Wings team that had Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Kronwall, Stuart, the good versions of Filppula and Helm is not quite the same as Hronek playing 24 minutes a night on this dumpster fire.

 

[NotLeddy]

Trading Hronek for a young, legit 2C will be Yzerman's Drouin for Sergachev trade for Detroit this summer

 

[MBH]

Prasanth asked his twitter followers if Stecher has been Detroit's best defenseman and like 75 percent said yes.
That's a kool-aid drinking bunch if I ever saw one.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Prasanth asked his twitter followers if Stecher has been Detroit's best defenseman and like 75 percent said yes.
That's a kool-aid drinking bunch if I ever saw one.

I've been pleasantly surprised with how physical he is for a smaller guy but I can't say I could make any sort of case he's been their best Dman.

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

yeah he's not exactly making an apples to apples comparison there.

Brett Lebda playing 14 to 16 minutes a night on a Wings team that had Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Lidstrom, Kronwall, Stuart, the good versions of Filppula and Helm is not quite the same as Hronek playing 24 minutes a night on this dumpster fire.

Hronek's is facing 1st pair competition playing with a guy who is a 3rd pairing d-man on a decent team and Hronek is still young and developing.
Hopefully the hard times will make him stronger.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I've been pleasantly surprised with how physical he is for a smaller guy but I can't say I could make any sort of case he's been their best Dman.

Feel pretty opposite. Stecher has been the best of the defensemen this year. Like notably so for my taste. Doesn’t mean he’s the best defenseman on the team, but he’s outplayed everyone in my eyes.

 

[NotLeddy]

I've been pleasantly surprised with how physical he is for a smaller guy but I can't say I could make any sort of case he's been their best Dman.

Best skater among defensemen on the team

Best rate at retreiving the puck and getting it out of the zone and ending opposition plays quickly

Arguably best offensive instincts on the team among defenseman

One of the best supressors of shots/shot attempts on the team

Currently lowest expected goals against/60 on the team among defensemen who have played more than 10 minutes at 5v5, 3rd best on the entire Red Wings for players that have played all games so far.

There is absolutely a case that he is the best defenseman on the Red Wings. Nemeth might have a case too, but really that's only last year's very good shot supression to go off of, and he wasn't like that in Colorado/Dallas and so far he's not having the greatest year this season. I personally think Merrill is, but let's see how he and Stecher compare as the season go on.

All that's for certain is the best defenseman on the Red Wings is definitely not Hronek. Hronek is allowing almost an entire expected goal against 60, and believe it or not, Stecher is playing more minutes at 5v5 this season so far than Hronek is.

 

[Frk It]

Feel pretty opposite. Stecher has been the best of the defensemen this year. Like notably so for my taste. Doesn’t mean he’s the best defenseman on the team, but he’s outplayed everyone in my eyes.

The guy being more sheltered looks better?

Ya don’t say.

 

[NotLeddy]

The guy being more sheltered looks better?

Ya don’t say.

He leads the team in 5v5 icetime per 60, playing the toughest minutes on the team and considerably outplaying Hronek so far

Exact opposite of sheltered. So far the guy being sheltered at 5v5 is Djoos.

 

[Frk It]

You

View attachment 391833

He leads the team in 5v5 icetime per 60, playing the toughest minutes on the team and considerably outplaying Hronek so far

Exact opposite of sheltered. So far the guy being sheltered at 5v5 is Djoos.

You think they’re getting the same quality of competition in those 17 min?

Cause only one of those guys is on the top pair... and it’s not Stecher

 

[NotLeddy]

You


You think they’re getting the same quality of competition in those 17 min?

Cause only one of those guys is on the top pair... and it’s not Stecher

Why Quality of Competition doesn’t matter to analytics experts anymore - Vancouver Is Awesome

Here's a good article.

Stecher and Hronek are both playing against the opposition's best players, and Hronek being on the "top pairing" means nothing if Stecher is playing more minutes at 5v5 than him. Teams rolls out all their lines against all pairings, so it's not like Hronek excusively is matched up against the top lines every night, he's struggling against most of the lines that he's up against.

This is the percentage of how much "Quality of Competition" icetime Red Wings defensemen have played against so far this season (credit to @TomasHertlsRooster ). The difference between Stecher and Hronek's quality of competition is very miniscule, it doesn't justify Hronek's poor defensive results or take away from Stecher's very good results.

 

[DetroitRed]

Hronek faced some critics in here earlier in the season. So, it's worth looking at where he's at now.

He's leading the team in points, assists, and in power play points... as a defender.

Currently, he ranks 13-18 for total assists among all NHL defenders. Also, it's worth noting that he's tied at 25-28 over all for total points among all NHL defenders.

I didn't know I would ever say about him "leading the team in points, assists, and in power play points..."

In addition to leading the team in power play points, Hronek is also leading the team in even strength points...as a defender.

We thought he would be an offensive defender. I think he's proved he's more dimensional than just that. Moreover, although we thought he would be an offensive defender, did anyone picture him being this talented?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Hronek faced some critics in here earlier in the season. So, it's worth looking at where he's at now.

He's leading the team in points, assists, and in power play points... as a defender.

Currently, he ranks 13-18 for total assists among all NHL defenders. Also, it's worth noting that he's tied at 25-28 over all for total points among all NHL defenders.

I didn't know I would ever say about him "leading the team in points, assists, and in power play points..."

In addition to leading the team in power play points, Hronek is also leading the team in even strength points...as a defender.

We thought he would be an offensive defender. I think he's proved he's more dimensional than just that. Moreover, although we thought he would be an offensive defender, did anyone picture him being this talented?

I think when Seider & another 1st/2nd pairing Dmen are added, he'll be a 50pt, + player @ 20-22 TOI. PP1/2. I'd keep him off PK to save him for 5on5 & PP.

 

[SoupGuru]

I think most of his points come more from his ice time than anything else. I can't think of many goals his assist was really essential in creating. Not trying to knock him for the points... I just don't see some sort of offensive zone wizardry at play. His play on the ice seems to get things moving in the right direction and he's getting rewarded with some good stats.

But his play in his own zone is pretty bad. You said he leads the team in even strength points... while having the second worse plus/minus on the team.

 

[DetroitRed]

I think when Seider & another 1st/2nd pairing Dmen are added, he'll be a 50pt, + player @ 20-22 TOI. PP1/2. I'd keep him off PK to save him for 5on5 & PP.

Right on! I think so, too.

Another point in support of him being capable of much higher totals, although it almost goes without saying is that Hronek is where is in points/assists after a long stretch without Larkin and Bertuzzi. Obviously, those two were the team's best scorers until they were injured.

Hronek is actually averaging 23.41 minutes a game - a big workload for a guy who's game has been more focused on being a 2nd. So, he's thriving in a less than ideal situation.

If we could rewind somehow, knowing what we know about him now, I think Hronek would be in the all-star conversation with Bernier, Larkin and Bertuzzi. I certainly see him as one of our new core guys.

 

[DetroitRed]

I think most of his points come more from his ice time than anything else. I can't think of many goals his assist was really essential in creating. Not trying to knock him for the points... I just don't see some sort of offensive zone wizardry at play. His play on the ice seems to get things moving in the right direction and he's getting rewarded with some good stats.

But his play in his own zone is pretty bad. You said he leads the team in even strength points... while having the second worse plus/minus on the team.

I see what you're saying, but it seems easier to attribute a bad plus/minus to ice time than it is to write off his points to ice time.

You could've also said that he's played more games, although that's kind of its own positive. However...he hasn't played so many more games that you could expect him to be leading the team in points as a defender.

Likewise, the reason why I don't think you can write off his points to his higher ice time is that he is a defender. Defenders tend to get more ice time, but they don't tend to get more points. Also, like we were saying just above, if he was rested more, not used how he has been, he might have more energy to use in the offensive zone - so, he could be even better.

I would say that he's getting it done quietly. So, I kinda agree on that, maybe. We aren't seeing mind-blowing passes from him, for the most part. It's more of a case of he just knows who to give it to when and he makes the passes he's supposed to make. But you can make a hell of a career out that, if you have a special talent for it. Right?

When he was still in GR, the story line on him was that he might be entirely one-sided. Moreover, if you had a 1st defender out there with him, his plus/minus wouldn't be what it is. He's having to try to be that guy for us. That's why I think his plus/minus is where it is. But defensively, I still say he's better than we thought.

He is a pretty young player to be where he's at, not just offensively. Who knew he would be thrust into having to act as a 1st so soon?

 

[Mlotek]

I see what you're saying, but it seems easier to attribute a bad plus/minus to ice time than it is to write off his points to ice time.

You could've also said that he's played more games, although that's kind of its own positive. However...he hasn't played so many more games that you could expect him to be leading the team in points as a defender.

Likewise, the reason why I don't think you can write off his points to his higher ice time is that he is a defender. Defenders tend to get more ice time, but they don't tend to get more points. Also, like we were saying just above, if he was rested more, not used how he has been, he might have more energy to use in the offensive zone - so, he could be even better.

I would say that he's getting it done quietly. So, I kinda agree on that, maybe. We aren't seeing mind-blowing passes from him, for the most part. It's more of a case of he just knows who to give it to when and he makes the passes he's supposed to make. But you can make a hell of a career out that, if you have a special talent for it. Right?

When he was still in GR, the story line on him was that he might be entirely one-sided. Moreover, if you had a 1st defender out there with him, his plus/minus wouldn't be what it is. He's having to try to be that guy for us. That's why I think his plus/minus is where it is. But defensively, I still say he's better than we thought.

He is a pretty young player to be where he's at, not just offensively. Who knew he would be thrust into having to act as a 1st so soon?

2019-20 Hronek got worse and worse defensively as season went on.

2021 he is still meh defensively. Not as bad as end of last season but he isn't great there.
At this point I'm not sure how much it's him or the system/feedback from coaching staff.

DKK regressed defensively when Houda got hired as the D coach. It was only after a long injury did he get better at defensive position, magically the time away from coaching staff.

Offensively Hronek has been making a lot of dumb decisions with the puck. Deciding when to shoot and his breakout passes in particular leave a lack to be desired this season. That's something he previously excelled at. At least he's putting up points somehow.


Honestly, I think it boils down to this team now knowing how to develop D at all. Currently have 0 trust in Houda to help the young guys at NHL level.

Are there any D that improved in Detroit the last 5 seasons?
Would argue Hronek hasn't improved (at least defensively) and this season his decision making for offense is MIA.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think when Seider & another 1st/2nd pairing Dmen are added, he'll be a 50pt, + player @ 20-22 TOI. PP1/2. I'd keep him off PK to save him for 5on5 & PP.

I don’t. I think when Seider comes in Hronek gets pushed down the lineup, sees a reduction in ice and then drops to a 30ish point guy.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I don’t. I think when Seider comes in Hronek gets pushed down the lineup, sees a reduction in ice and then drops to a 30ish point guy.

With Seider getting arguably way more DZS & Hronek being fresher as a result, like spring breeze fresher a la Irish Spring, his pts/gp & advanced stats should improve, imo. Right now he's stretched way too thin & doesn't always get the prime opps.

See exhibit A:
(pre-Seider Hronek-left & post-Seider Hronek-right)

RD
20-22+ TOI Seider
20-22max TOI Hronek
16 TOI (Stecher/Lindstrom)

Keep him off the PK (or only use in dire need) & give him all 5on5/PP1 (after he sings his med-long term extension) w/60%+ OZS.

 

[Gniwder]

2019-20 Hronek got worse and worse defensively as season went on.

2021 he is still meh defensively. Not as bad as end of last season but he isn't great there.
At this point I'm not sure how much it's him or the system/feedback from coaching staff.

DKK regressed defensively when Houda got hired as the D coach. It was only after a long injury did he get better at defensive position, magically the time away from coaching staff.

Offensively Hronek has been making a lot of dumb decisions with the puck. Deciding when to shoot and his breakout passes in particular leave a lack to be desired this season. That's something he previously excelled at. At least he's putting up points somehow.


Honestly, I think it boils down to this team now knowing how to develop D at all. Currently have 0 trust in Houda to help the young guys at NHL level.

Are there any D that improved in Detroit the last 5 seasons?
Would argue Hronek hasn't improved (at least defensively) and this season his decision making for offense is MIA.

The team chases the puck on D, and the PK sucks as well. I have no idea what Houda is doing.

Back to the subject, I think Hronek played better last season with worse partners. At the same time, I think that's messed with his head, because sometimes he'll play the pass instead of taking the puck carrier. It's like he's playing against a 2 on 1 even when his partner's there.

Unfortunately I really think we're gonna get one more season of all 3 coaches.

 

[DetroitRed]

2019-20 Hronek got worse and worse defensively as season went on.

2021 he is still meh defensively. Not as bad as end of last season but he isn't great there.
At this point I'm not sure how much it's him or the system/feedback from coaching staff.

DKK regressed defensively when Houda got hired as the D coach. It was only after a long injury did he get better at defensive position, magically the time away from coaching staff.

Offensively Hronek has been making a lot of dumb decisions with the puck. Deciding when to shoot and his breakout passes in particular leave a lack to be desired this season. That's something he previously excelled at. At least he's putting up points somehow.


Honestly, I think it boils down to this team now knowing how to develop D at all. Currently have 0 trust in Houda to help the young guys at NHL level.

Are there any D that improved in Detroit the last 5 seasons?
Would argue Hronek hasn't improved (at least defensively) and this season his decision making for offense is MIA.

I think you're right on the coaches, but I don't think we can explain away a defender leading a team in points as luck. Nor can luck explain where he's at in assists in comparison to other defenders in the league. Simple ice time doesn't get you that far, especially not on a team so challenged offensively, like Detroit is.

I think almost everyone on the team is experiencing that same kinda sophomore slump as Hronek and for some of our players that slump has lasted for years. But it's also probably explainable.

When a player first comes up, they're just exited to be in the NHL and they want to prove they belong. Soon after that though, what happens on this team is the reality of being on a bottom team gets to them and the coaching the team has adds to the problem because the coaches impact how the individual players play (generally worse).

So yeah, I think I see the same thing going on, but not just with him. Even still, no matter what you can say about that, his O numbers are team-leading and are highly respectable on a league level as well. That's too significant to be luck. He's doing something right.

 

[14ari13]

Hronek has 14 points, then the next 3 defencemen combined 15, and all other 7 defencemen 26.

 

[jaster]

Hronek is probably #1 on my list of Red Wings who are having their game suppressed the most by this awful roster. My opinion on him hasn't changed the past couple seasons. He's a solid #3/4 who, on a good team and with the right partner, should easily log 20+ medium-difficulty minutes with top PP time and ring in 40+ points as one of the team's top-2 defensemen in terms of offensive production; all while not being a liability in his own end. A guy like Seider one day (won't be next season, so some people might be disappointed) pushing him down the roster and into the role I just described will only help Hronek. In the meantime, he's being relied on too heavily on a really bad roster, and he's paying for that by getting exposed too often.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Hronek is probably #1 on my list of Red Wings who are having their game suppressed the most by this awful roster. My opinion on him hasn't changed the past couple seasons. He's a solid #3/4 who, on a good team and with the right partner, should easily log 20+ medium-difficulty minutes with top PP time and ring in 40+ points as one of the team's top-2 defensemen in terms of offensive production; all while not being a liability in his own end. A guy like Seider one day (won't be next season, so some people might be disappointed) pushing him down the roster and into the role I just described will only help Hronek. In the meantime, he's being relied on too heavily on a really bad roster, and he's paying for that by getting exposed too often.

Agreed 100%, well put. I'd add that it'll keep his next contract reasonable, b/c his pts/60 won't be great, but still pretty good overall production vs. NHL. I imagine his advanced could look ugly & have somewhat of a negative effect on negotiations also. Though I do think he'll be our top point producing Dman when we're better stocked, barring an absolute 1st pairing stud. I could see Seider having similar but lesser pts., more TOI, way more DZS, PP2, PP1 & the toughest QoC%. With Seider on unit #2, there's less chance for a SHGA, or momentum changer 5on5 GA after our PP2 goes for a line change...stabilizes the back end.

Note OZS/DZS only account for ~10% variance in production, not as much as people seem to think. I was surprised when I read it myself.