Speculation: How would things have been different...

[SoupNazi]

I'm curious on opinions here: how would this team look today if Holland had done stepped down in 2010 and been replaced by Yzerman, or even in 2012 and been replaced by Nill?

Would we have rebuilt earlier? Would we have stayed the course for the sake of the streak?

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[aar000n]

Hard to say Holland was caught in no mans land with the streak. He could have kept the steak alive had they gone for goal scorers but he also wanted playoff wins so he went for a bunch of defensive players and when he could not do that he signed a bunch of slow people. Ie Bert, sammy, cleary etc etc

 

[Spirit19]

No significant difference.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Isn’t it rumored that Illitch wanted the streak alive at all costs? Either way we would be in a better position now if Holland had stepped down earlier.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Considering the position Holland put the Wings in (basically only making short term moves at the expense of the long-term health of the franchise, I would guess that the Wings would be in a better position. How much better is hard to say. Luck plays such a huge factor.

Basically, every move he made from 2010 until the end of his tenure with the Wings was a mistake, and you can't debate that hindsight is 20/20. The moves he made were widely panned the second they happened.

Simply doing nothing would have put the Wings in a better position.

 

[ricky0034]

would be difficult to be worse that's for sure, I doubt it would have been THAT big of a difference though

in any case the Yzerman stuff has always been super unrealistic, he was a year removed from back to back Cup Finals trips one of which was a win, no GM in the league is stepping down in a situation like that unless they already actively want to retire due to age or health or whatever

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

We would be like TB

 

[ShanahanMan]

all depends if Shane Wright was still in charge of drafting. If so, we’d be in the same position. We have very little to show from his tenure.

 

[Gniwder]

all depends if Shane Wright was still in charge of drafting. If so, we’d be in the same position. We have very little to show from his tenure.

You mean Tyler Wright....

He was hired in 2013 by Kenny from CBJ, if Kenny wasn't here then Tyler wouldn't have been either. Chances are that Stevie would have revamped the scouting staff like he has done recently so the entire makeup of the team would be different from 12 years of different drafting philosophy.

 

[MBH]

I'm curious on opinions here: how would this team look today if Holland had done stepped down in 2010 and been replaced by Yzerman, or even in 2012 and been replaced by Nill?

Would we have rebuilt earlier? Would we have stayed the course for the sake of the streak?

Hard to say.
Nill is a pretty good trader. Not so great as a drafter.

Yzerman? I'm guessing we would have seen a much different decade.

 

[Oddbob]

I say, we would have stayed the course, as Mike Illitch didn't want to rebuild and watch that kind of hockey. He wanted a competitive team, and any GM has to follow what the owners want, which is really what Ken Holland did. That said, Steve would have been more agressive in trades to keep us good and maybe we never even needed such a drastic bad rebuild. Ken was and is extremely passive with roster changes during the season, especially involving roster players leaving.

 

[Ricelund]

Two things come to mind:

1. The Wings would be in a much different place if they'd done better in the 2015-18 drafts. They ended up with Svechnikov, Cholowski, Rasmussen, and Zadina. Obviously we don't know who Yzerman and his team would've chosen but there were some great players picked after these guys. I never really liked Tyler Wright. Even if they'd only hit on one of those picks with a 1C/2C, they'd be in a much better place.

2. I think Yzerman would've been less reluctant to make aggressive trades when it was clear the team was on the downswing.

 

[Dotter]

I think there was a reason why Yzerman wasn't named GM when Mike was still alive. Holland was his guy.

Let's say Mike passed sooner and Yzerman became GM then, I think Wings would be more advanced in the rebuild both because Mike passed and Yzerplan implemented sooner.

 

[Ricelund]

I think there was a reason why Yzerman wasn't named GM when Mike was still alive. Holland was his guy.

Let's say Mike passed sooner and Yzerman became GM then, I think Wings would be more advanced in the rebuild both because Mike passed and Yzerplan implemented sooner.

Ilitch asked Holland if he’d be willing to step down for Yzerman to take his place. Holland declined and Yzerman went to Tampa.

 

[kliq]

I think nothing changes, or at least nothing positive. If anything, I think Yzerman butts heads with Illitch over the re-build, and ends up leaving. I think things played out the way they should have.

 

[Henkka]

I once did a "alternative universe" scenario, where Wings would start the rebuild at 2013-14 season, when the playoff hopes were most in jeopardy.

That would have meant not trading for Legwand etc. , accepting to fall out from the playoffs at least at that season, and trading Datsyuk to NY Rangers with equal value Tampa got for Martin St. Louis, who was traded in reality to NY Rangers.

Then drafting some guys with the extra picks. The rebuild would have started 3 years earlier, Datsyuk leaving did start it. He was the key element. Zetterberg would have maybe retired sooner etc.

The difference on the team when starting a rebuild 3 years earlier, was surprisingly small.

PS. NYR would have won that 2014 Cup with Datsyuk, insted of assets used on Martin St. Louis.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I think there was a reason why Yzerman wasn't named GM when Mike was still alive. Holland was his guy.

Let's say Mike passed sooner and Yzerman became GM then, I think Wings would be more advanced in the rebuild both because Mike passed and Yzerplan implemented sooner.

Mike Ilitch thought of Steve Yzerman like a son. He stripped Jimmy D and Scotty Bowman of big personnel decisions for trying to trade him to Ottawa. This idea you're putting out is inaccurate.

A part of what I have heard on this was Holland, didn't really want to step aside, but he was also struggling with jumping Jim Nill at the time of the Yzerman approach.

I mean obviously there would be some differences, but we were on the way down and the mandate from ownership was to make the playoffs. Now could Yzerman's standing both locally and with the Ilitch family have convinced them of the hard truths? I don't know, I mean they trust Devellano and Holland who have both been on record that they made the case after the Boston playoff loss that the end was near. I think the hindsight was you hope Holland just goes against the grain and accepts the punishment, hell ticking off Mike's wishes was how he rose to power himself as outlined above. The team would have likely been handed over, but by the time he reached where that would have happened both Stevie and Jim Nill had already left the building. So the narrative where Holland throws down his sword and jumps on it for the rebuild always misses the picture that Ryan Martin gets handed the reigns and we are actually incredibly probably in an even worse spot...

These things happen, it doesn't make these people bad people or bad at their job. I know that will be the narrative, but a chunk of this is out of your control and luck does play an important role. It's hard when you're outside of that room to really truly know. I have heard differing opinions and rational from people I know very close to the team. We had a quarter century of winning and even somehow rose above league rules designed at harming us. Father time is undefeated though, we were eventually going to spend time at the bottom, Yzerman, Nill, Holland or otherwise. I really believe that, I know others won't.

 

[Dotter]

Ilitch asked Holland if he’d be willing to step down for Yzerman to take his place. Holland declined and Yzerman went to Tampa.

Mike Ilitch thought of Steve Yzerman like a son. He stripped Jimmy D and Scotty Bowman of big personnel decisions for trying to trade him to Ottawa. This idea you're putting out is inaccurate.

A part of what I have heard on this was Holland, didn't really want to step aside, but he was also struggling with jumping Jim Nill at the time of the Yzerman approach.

I mean obviously there would be some differences, but we were on the way down and the mandate from ownership was to make the playoffs. Now could Yzerman's standing both locally and with the Ilitch family have convinced them of the hard truths? I don't know, I mean they trust Devellano and Holland who have both been on record that they made the case after the Boston playoff loss that the end was near. I think the hindsight was you hope Holland just goes against the grain and accepts the punishment, hell ticking off Mike's wishes was how he rose to power himself as outlined above. The team would have likely been handed over, but by the time he reached where that would have happened both Stevie and Jim Nill had already left the building. So the narrative where Holland throws down his sword and jumps on it for the rebuild always misses the picture that Ryan Martin gets handed the reigns and we are actually incredibly probably in an even worse spot...

These things happen, it doesn't make these people bad people or bad at their job. I know that will be the narrative, but a chunk of this is out of your control and luck does play an important role. It's hard when you're outside of that room to really truly know. I have heard differing opinions and rational from people I know very close to the team. We had a quarter century of winning and even somehow rose above league rules designed at harming us. Father time is undefeated though, we were eventually going to spend time at the bottom, Yzerman, Nill, Holland or otherwise. I really believe that, I know others won't.

Which would suggest Kenny was Mike's boy. I mean, he asked... wasn't told, wasn't fired. Mike knew the risk of losing Yzerman. He chose Kenny by letting Yzerman walk.

 

[Henkka]

What comes to my scenario (Datsyuk traded and rebuild started at 2014 deadline)

Tampa Bay got 2x 1st round picks + Ryan Callahan for Martin St. Louis.

Ler's expect Yzerman/Holland would have got same trade value for Datsyuk at 2014.

That 2014 NYR 1st turned to be 30.overall, Yzerman traded that down at 2014 draft, getting two 2nds at #35 + #57.overall. Drafted defenceman Dominik Masin and defenceman Jonathan MacDonald with those picks. Both busted.

That 2015 NYR 1st turned to be 28th overall, and again Yzerman traded that down at draft, getting 2nd+3rd as #33 + 72.overalls. Drafted Michell Stephens and Anthony Cirelli with those picks.

Also, 2015 TBL own 1st round pick turned to be 29th overall, and Yzerman traded that 1st + Radgo Gudas + 3rd for Braydon Coburn at trade deadline.

Imo, quite a big overpay for Coburn. They reached the finals, but don't think Coburn was any kind of factor. Anthony Beauvillier was drafted to NYI (after multiple trades between multiple teams, pick ended to NYI) with that Tampa 1st.

Trading Datsyuk for two 1sts + Callahan:

Datsyuk
<>
Callahan
2014 1st (busting picks Masin + MacDonald)
2015 1st Cirelli + Stephens

So Datsyuk would have converted to 2nd line Center and borderline 4th line Center + cap dump (Callahan).

Lots of variables on the play, but just one example, how these could go.

**

And story continues, you don't trade for David Legwand. So you keep Patrick Eaves, Calle Järnkrok + 2nd (Julius Bergman, bust)

Sent out:
Datsyuk
don't get David Legwand

<>

Got/kept:
Ryan Callahan
Patrick Eaves
Calle Järnkrok
2nd (busting julius Bergman)
2014 1st (busting picks Masin + MacDonald)
2015 1st Cirelli + Stephens

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Which would suggest Kenny was Mike's boy. I mean, he asked... wasn't told, wasn't fired. Mike knew the risk of losing Yzerman. He chose Kenny by letting Yzerman walk.

I think you're missing the fact that rightfully he can be close with all of these guys. At the time of the 2010 approach, we are coming off back to back finals appearances, Holland isn't really old and they are jumping his actual #2... When Yzerman left he went and saw the Ilitch family personally and Marian Ilitch was said to be so despondent she stayed in another room in tears. They have a very close relationship with him, they talked through and ultimately rejected Minnesota as a group when Yzerman was approached by them. At the time of Ilitch making the Red Wings approach you were asking the best GM in hockey to step aside who was still relatively young. I think that speaks volumes to just how much they think of him.

To those around the team, it was then go learn this somewhere else and we will hopefully bring you back in the future... Which happened and you know thankfully for us we didn't have to watch Yzerman helm the sinking ship, he got to come back with tons more leeway (obviously a ton of that earned from Tampa) and enact his own vision. I wish the last 5 to 6 years were a lot more fun, but I still love the Red Wings and I still have tremendous admiration for all the men we are talking about in this thread. They built the best team in the sport for 25 years and I have confidence Yzerman will build it again, though I have a lot less faith in Chris Ilitch than I did his father... Still I think it happened the way it was supposed to.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Had to check the date on the thread to make sure the forum update hadn't somehow dug up a thread from 5 years ago. Sorry, but this hypothetical has been debated so much.

I think the general consensus in prior discussions has been that ownership had no interest in a true tear-down rebuild back then. With that said a different GM would almost certainly have navigated certain things differently but I think it's anyone's guess if the ultimate outcome would have been all that different. Yes, maybe we start rebuilding a little faster, but does that lead to a better result? Who knows.

all depends if Shane Wright was still in charge of drafting. If so, we’d be in the same position. We have very little to show from his tenure

Shane Wright is a draft eligible prospect this year so I doubt he would have been running our draft back then.
Tyler Wright came in 2014, so he also wouldn't have had anything to do with the team in 2010.

 

[Dotter]

I think you're missing the fact that rightfully he can be close with all of these guys. At the time of the 2010 approach, we are coming off back to back finals appearances, Holland isn't really old and they are jumping his actual #2... When Yzerman left he went and saw the Ilitch family personally and Marian Ilitch was said to be so despondent she stayed in another room in tears. They have a very close relationship with him, they talked through and ultimately rejected Minnesota as a group when Yzerman was approached by them. At the time of Ilitch making the Red Wings approach you were asking the best GM in hockey to step aside who was still relatively young. I think that speaks volumes to just how much they think of him.

To those around the team, it was then go learn this somewhere else and we will hopefully bring you back in the future... Which happened and you know thankfully for us we didn't have to watch Yzerman helm the sinking ship, he got to come back with tons more leeway (obviously a ton of that earned from Tampa) and enact his own vision. I wish the last 5 to 6 years were a lot more fun, but I still love the Red Wings and I still have tremendous admiration for all the men we are talking about in this thread. They built the best team in the sport for 25 years and I have confidence Yzerman will build it again, though I have a lot less faith in Chris Ilitch than I did his father... Still I think it happened the way it was supposed to.

It's no secret the Ilitch family loves Yzerman. My entire point was Mike chose Kenny over Yzerman by letting Yzerman walk. The reason's you listed are valid points.

And I did say if Holland did step down and Yzerman took over sooner, I do think we'd be further along in a rebuild. I think Kenny (and Mike) were stuck on keeping the streak going, I doubt Yzerman would have been. But I think Yzerman would needed to have a long conversation with Mike and convince him a scorched earth rebuild was the best way. Question is, would Mike sign off on it....

EDIT: should mention a scorched earth rebuild should not have happened until Lidstrom retired 2012.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Ilitch asked Holland if he’d be willing to step down for Yzerman to take his place. Holland declined and Yzerman went to Tampa.

Yup. That's what makes Holland's moves even more frustrating.

Holland wouldn't accept a promotion so Yzerman could be GM, then he spent the ensuing years crippling the team.

 

[Snuggs]

I really think what gets glossed over like it's fine wine is and was how bad Ken Holland was with the cap that he was able to use to sign players. Signings were down right terrible imo, and what lead to these prolonged years of being real bad. Frazen over Hossa started it and it basically never got better and he seemed to double down on himself even.

IMO, Someone else dealing out money wouldn't of paid guys like Abdelkader/Helm/Dekeyser/Howard/Nielson/Weiss/Daley among some others and those choices by Holland really lead to the spiral down the tubes type rebuild we've felt. (IMO, again).

IF, some of those players were signed for half the term, half the money, or straight up different players all together... I think things would of shake'n out a lot different, and Red Wings needed someone other than Ken Holland leading/making the choices.

A lot of the trades were even bad/mediocre at best near the end.(The one's when Red Wings were buyers not sellers.)

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

With Yzerman running the team from 2010 on, we probably still mortgage the future to make the playoffs, but we probably don't offer terrible albatross contracts to vets and there's a good chance we draft Kucherov in 2011. Yzerman would have likely leaned on Hakan a lot more for drafting.

The biggest thing that is holding the rebuild back is the fact that the Wings literally only drafted 12 players that would see legit NHL playing time out of 70 picks from 2010-2018, only drafted 4 players that were legit top-6 forwards or top-4 defense, and busted on 5 of 7 first round picks. Forget Holland's bad deals, the fact is he hired Wright and froze out Hakan and our drafting suffered for it. Even the Euros we drafted came out of the North American system.