Speculation: How will the Ducks do in 2019-2020 season?

[Ducks DVM]

Bubble team. They’ll go as far as the goaltenders can take them. They’ll fail as far as the trainers can’t keep them healthy this year. Depth (proven depth) is very poor.

 

[GreatBear]

I am trying to figure out the difference between barely miss playoffs and miss playoffs and get a 6 - 15 pick. Since if you barely miss the playoffs you could get a 14 or 15 pick, so the two categories seem to overlap. I made my vote on the basis that barely miss the playoffs meant finish 9th in the Conference, while the other category meant finishing 10th - 13th.

 

[IDuck]

I am trying to figure out the difference between barely miss playoffs and miss playoffs and get a 6 - 15 pick. Since if you barely miss the playoffs you could get a 14 or 15 pick, so the two categories seem to overlap. I made my vote on the basis that barely miss the playoffs meant finish 9th in the Conference, while the other category meant finishing 10th - 13th.

agree....thats how I took it as well

 

[snowave]

Bubble. Will all depend on if we get a couple younger guys to make the next step up, and also a couple vets having rebound seasons. Obviously, GT will play a part, too as well as our new coach.

Lots of variables as always, but either way, I don't see us being a realistic contender.

 

[Mallard]

Bubble team. Think the second half of the season will be a lot better than the first.

 

[alcolol]

For those of you who subscribe to the Athletic, what do you make of this article?
Projecting the 2019-20 NHL standings: How does each roster...

The authors took prospective lineups according to each team's beat writer, ran it through Sean Tierney's lineup tool, then compared the corresponding WAR data to estimate how next season's standings might shake out. Anaheim finishes 5th to last according to this model.

Nearly 70% of those who voted in this thread's poll think Anaheim will either make the playoffs or barely miss. Personally, I think we're in for another rough season and we're not yet playoff-contenders.

 

[cheesymc]

There’s only a handful of teams that will definitely be starting worse off than the Ducks: Ottawa, Wild, Coyotes, and probably Canucks, and maybe other dysfunctional team like the Oilers or Sabres.

I see us anywhere from 6 to 14 and it’s gonna be all about chemistry.

 

[DavidBL]

For those of you who subscribe to the Athletic, what do you make of this article?
Projecting the 2019-20 NHL standings: How does each roster...

The authors took prospective lineups according to each team's beat writer, ran it through Sean Tierney's lineup tool, then compared the corresponding WAR data to estimate how next season's standings might shake out. Anaheim finishes 5th to last according to this model.

Nearly 70% of those who voted in this thread's poll think Anaheim will either make the playoffs or barely miss. Personally, I think we're in for another rough season and we're not yet playoff-contenders.

That tool is largely influenced by last years results. I don't think we can take it too seriously.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

I believe our forwards will have good season but that defense is in shambles

 

[alcolol]

There’s only a handful of teams that will definitely be starting worse off than the Ducks: Ottawa, Wild, Coyotes, and probably Canucks, and maybe other dysfunctional team like the Oilers or Sabres.

I see us anywhere from 6 to 14 and it’s gonna be all about chemistry.

These are the teams I think are objectively worse on paper: Ottawa, Edmonton, Detroit. Teams that are in the "not much better but it's go-time" category, IMO, include Vancouver, Arizona, and Buffalo. Teams that undeniably improved going into next season include New Jersey, Philadelphia, and New York Rangers. Minnesota is a total toss up but ownership seems to want a "yes man" GM who will squeeze that roster for all it's worth. That leaves Los Angeles and Anaheim as the two remaining teams from last season's bottom-11. Both markedly underperformed relative to expectations so perhaps each might rebound a bit next season.

In a vacuum, I think Anaheim has reason to be optimistic given the changes to personnel and coaching. Not in a vacuum though, I think Anaheim will struggle to keep up with the rest of the conference.

That tool is largely influenced by last years results. I don't think we can take it too seriously.

Any prediction tool should be largely influenced by the prior year's results. I understand this past season was an anomaly for a large part of our roster but we have just as many question marks going into next season.

 

[OCSportsfan]

Stanley cup or bust.

I think BM will make a trade at the deadline for a veteran D that may push them to the next level. I actually think we will be one of the better scoring teams. Adding a solid top 4 Veteran D via trade, and a different coach, I am expecting some success.

7 of the top 9 should be better. Wild card is Sprong

Bounce back years
Getz
Rakell

Break out year
Kase
Ritchie

Expected improvement from last year
Terry
Steel
Jones

Similar year
Henrique
Silferberg

 

[GeraldDucksworth]

There’s only a handful of teams that will definitely be starting worse off than the Ducks: Ottawa, Wild, Coyotes, and probably Canucks, and maybe other dysfunctional team like the Oilers or Sabres.

I see us anywhere from 6 to 14 and it’s gonna be all about chemistry.

You’re so wrong about the Coyotes. They have a great f***ing team. Miles ahead of the Ducks.

 

[MilesNewton]

I cast a vote for winning the 1st round, because I believe we can. The Ducks have a lot of things going for them this season: a new coach, who likes a puck-movement game; a solid core of returning vets who are better than they showed last season, and want to demonstrate that; a healthy goaltender who doesn't have to be overworked, with a great backup; a crop of skilled kids who want to make their mark, and a LOT of enthusiasm and buy-in. That last part will make the biggest difference - 2 years ago Vegas showed us what buy-in can do for a team.

Of course we'll be more fun to watch - RC is gone. But we're going to win games. ALL the teams in the Pacific have issues, and I think the Ducks and the Coyotes are probably the most balanced teams in the division. No reason we can't finish in the top 3 of the division.

So is there a puck moving defenceman?

 

[Paul4587]

For those of you who subscribe to the Athletic, what do you make of this article?
Projecting the 2019-20 NHL standings: How does each roster...

The authors took prospective lineups according to each team's beat writer, ran it through Sean Tierney's lineup tool, then compared the corresponding WAR data to estimate how next season's standings might shake out. Anaheim finishes 5th to last according to this model.

Nearly 70% of those who voted in this thread's poll think Anaheim will either make the playoffs or barely miss. Personally, I think we're in for another rough season and we're not yet playoff-contenders.

That WAR is way too influenced by last year’s results where we had one of the worst coaches in the NHL behind the bench. Our forward depth is actually really good - Getzlaf and Rakell assuming good health will bounce back somewhat and our youngsters should continue to grow. Unless Getzlaf regresses/misses huge amounts of time I’m not worried about scoring goals even if we were woeful at it last year.

The D is worrying - we have 3 nhl level dmen and a huge drop off after number 3. If anyone gets injured on the backend we are screwed.

 

[GeraldDucksworth]

That WAR is way too influenced by last year’s results where we had one of the worst coaches in the NHL behind the bench. Our forward depth is actually really good - Getzlaf and Rakell assuming good health will bounce back somewhat and our youngsters should continue to grow. Unless Getzlaf regresses/misses huge amounts of time I’m not worried about scoring goals even if we were woeful at it last year.

The D is worrying - we have 3 nhl level dmen and a huge drop off after number 3. If anyone gets injured on the backend we are screwed.

Lol. The Ducks have zero forward or defensive depth. So much depth, yet no one can score a damn goal. The Ducks can’t even put together a legit #1 line.

I also saw comments about not using last year’s results to forecast this season because it was one down year after years of success... Well, guess what?!?! The f***ing roster is completely different than the team that won the Cup and won the division year after year. This roster is bottom of the league. It’s hilarious so many people picked this team as making the playoffs, let alone winning a round.

 

[Paul4587]

Lol. The Ducks have zero forward or defensive depth. So much depth, yet no one can score a damn goal. The Ducks can’t even put together a legit #1 line.

I also saw comments about not using last year’s results to forecast this season because it was one down year after years of success... Well, guess what?!?! The ****ing roster is completely different than the team that won the Cup and won the division year after year. This roster is bottom of the league. It’s hilarious so many people picked this team as making the playoffs, let alone winning a round.

What have you done for me lately?

 

[GeraldDucksworth]

What have you done for me lately?

When the majority of the roster wasn’t there 3 years ago it’s applicable

 

[bsu]

Bottom 8 team

 

[Mr Rogers]

Similar to last year IMO. Maybe slightly better. I think the team will be a lot more interesting to watch however.

 

[DavidBL]

When the majority of the roster wasn’t there 3 years ago it’s applicable

And its also very different from last year. So if the team is so different why are we usuing any past criteria? It comes down to if you think the new players or returbing players will improve over their previous years counterparts. Its not crazy to think prospects that few by leaps and bounds within the season(Steel and Terry) and stars lile Rakell and Getzlaf and Lindholm bouncing back should produce better results. Doesnt seem that confusing to me.

 

[Spazkat]

That WAR is way too influenced by last year’s results where we had one of the worst coaches in the NHL behind the bench. Our forward depth is actually really good - Getzlaf and Rakell assuming good health will bounce back somewhat and our youngsters should continue to grow. Unless Getzlaf regresses/misses huge amounts of time I’m not worried about scoring goals even if we were woeful at it last year.

The D is worrying - we have 3 nhl level dmen and a huge drop off after number 3. If anyone gets injured on the backend we are screwed.

So which part of their assessment are we disagreeing with? L1 /L2 should probably be switched in terms of ice time, but other than that? Left wing is a disaster after Rakell, unless we're assuming that 30ish points is acceptable 2nd line production. Kase has been great, but he's apparently made of glass, so expecting a full season's production out of his seems ambitious.

There's just not a lot of point production there unless you're counting on a handful of 1st year players to all debut with 50+ points. And god knows that D isn't going to keep much out Gibby's face

 

[GeraldDucksworth]

And its also very different from last year. So if the team is so different why are we usuing any past criteria? It comes down to if you think the new players or returbing players will improve over their previous years counterparts. Its not crazy to think prospects that few by leaps and bounds within the season(Steel and Terry) and stars lile Rakell and Getzlaf and Lindholm bouncing back should produce better results. Doesnt seem that confusing to me.

It’s not much different than last year. Probably got worse losing Perry, but that will be okay in the long run. There were no signings of note. No one that will be a difference maker or sniff anywhere close to top line minutes. The prospects played significant games last year and showed nothing.

Troy Terry 32 games (4 goals, 9 assists)
Sam Steel 22 games (6 goals, 5 assists)
Max Jones 30 games (2 goals, 3 assists)

Those are the guys most likely to crack the roster. None of them will fill the scoring void the Ducks are facing. Even if one of them scores 20 goals, there are major problems with this roster competing next season.

 

[MMC]

There’s some things wrong with this video, notably the omission of Hakanpaa, and I don’t think Lundestrom or Mahura will spend much time in the NHL next season, but otherwise I pretty much agree with everything THG says here

 

[DavidBL]

It’s not much different than last year. Probably got worse losing Perry, but that will be okay in the long run. There were no signings of note. No one that will be a difference maker or sniff anywhere close to top line minutes. The prospects played significant games last year and showed nothing.

Troy Terry 32 games (4 goals, 9 assists)
Sam Steel 22 games (6 goals, 5 assists)
Max Jones 30 games (2 goals, 3 assists)

Those are the guys most likely to crack the roster. None of them will fill the scoring void the Ducks are facing. Even if one of them scores 20 goals, there are major problems with this roster competing next season.

Perry and Kesler were terrible last year. Replacing their last year versions is not going to be difficult. Both Steel ans Terry made huge strides between their callups. Its not exactly unreasonable to expect continued growth. For arguments sake Terry was close to a 30 pt pace and steel was at 41 pt pace. I actually don't expect Jones to make the roster. I expect both Getz and Rakell to bounce back to 70+ pt players. If Ritchie takes another step he could be 40-50 pts. He was already at a 40 pt pace on that abysmal team last year. One of our biggest questions is if Kase can stay healthy. If he does he is easily 50+ pt player.
So:
Getz-70
Raks-70
Kase -55
Rico-45
Ritchie-45
Silf-45
Steel-40
Terry-30
Shore- 20
Sprong- 20
Grant- 20
Rowney- 20
Its not super exciting but I dobt think any of those numbers are unreachable. That's 480 pts out of our top 12 forwards. If you assume 3 pts per goal there is 160 goals there. Not including the D. We all know that not every goal results in 2 assists. For reference our team had 512 pts combined last year. Thats roughly 2.6 pts per goal. So if we apply that rate to those 480 pts and we're looking at 184 goals out if 12 of 21 active roster players. If we get 90 pts out of Lindholm Fowler and Manson we end up with a other 35 goals roughly that the D helps contribute to. Mind you that doesn't mean that those players score all of those goals. By by my count that is 219 goals out of the top 15 players on the roster. Obviously there are a lot of assumptions here but its just rough math. These numbers put us around the top 20. Im hope that with those and better team D we'll improve our situation. For instance after we fored Carlyle we allowed 68 goals in 26 games which equates to 214 goals allowed. With these swings we are back into a positive goal differential. Is it really so hard to se the Ducks achieve some of these numbers? I rrally dont think these are so outlandish. Maybe I'm wrong but it has me being optimistic.

 

[JonathnTaylorTavares]

i don’t even care about not making the playoffs this season. Almost every one of our guys has something to prove and it will be fun to watch those storylines unfold. Esp the new guys. Playoffs will just be a bonus