WatchfulElm
Former "Domi a favor"
With the growing number of long term contracts that are being signed, I feel we now have a clearer picture of what is considered to be the core of the team, and of what it may look like in 2021-22. And the way I see it, it's almost possible to keep with core intact for a few years, even with a flat cap, by replacing expensive 4th line and bottom pair players with youngsters.
Players signed for 2021-22 :
1-Drouin
2-Anderson
3-Toffoli
4-Gallagher
5-Byron
6-Suzuki
7-Evans
1-Weber
2-Petry
3-Chiarot
4-Edmundson
5-Kulak
6-Romanov
1-Price
2-Allen
Cap space : 15,55 M$ (15 players)
RFA
We have 3 RFA, but I expect only KK will get a rise. It will depend how good he plays this season, but we can probably expect a cheaper bridge contract anyway. For Lehkonen, I could see a lower salary if the economic situation remains the same.
8- Kotkaniemi : 3 M$
9- Lehkonen : 2 M$
7- Mete : 0,750 M$
Cap space : 9,8 M$ (18 players)
UFA + rookies
We need to add 5 forwards for that price. I think Danault has to be signed, because nobody can do what he does as well as him in the system. I will even add Armia, even if we could decide to move on from him at this point.
10- Danault : 5 M$
11- Armia : 3,5 M$
And I think we can expect a few youngsters to make the team. I'll add 3 of them.
12- Caufield : 0,850 M$
13- Poehling : 0,925 M$
14- Ylonen : 0,881 M$
Cap space : 3,644 M$ (23 players)
Expansion draft
Here comes the unpredictable part. One of our signed players will be drafted by Seattle, freeing cap space for us. I think the most likely scenario is that we protect 7 forwards (Drouin, Anderson, Toffoli, Gallagher, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Armia), 3 defensemen (Weber, Petry, Chiarot) and 1 goalie (Price). That leaves Lehkonen, Byron, Edmundson, Kulak and Allen exposed. Lehkonen and Allen are probably the 2 most likely candidates to be drafted. Let's say it's Allen, and we replace him with Primeau.
Cap space after expansion draft : 5,64 M$
Then we replace Allen with Primeau.
Drouin - Suzuki - Caufield
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Ylonen - Kotkaniemi - Anderson
Lehkonen - Evans - Armia
Byron, Poehling
Romanov - Weber
Chiarot - Petry
Edmundson - Mete
Kulak
Price
Primeau
-------------------
Where does that leaves us?
We lose Tatar and Weal, but are easily able to retain all the other core players and more. And we still have over 5 millions in cap space. We could easily get more cap space by not signing Armia, or by trading Byron or Lehkonen. This would give us enough dollar to re-sign Tatar, or even a more expensive LW.
In conclusion, keeping our core intact absolutely won't be a problem, even with a flat cap, especially with the expansion draft coming.
The challenge might only come in 2022-23, if Suzuki needs a big raise. But until then, this team won't be in cap hell.
Players signed for 2021-22 :
1-Drouin
2-Anderson
3-Toffoli
4-Gallagher
5-Byron
6-Suzuki
7-Evans
1-Weber
2-Petry
3-Chiarot
4-Edmundson
5-Kulak
6-Romanov
1-Price
2-Allen
Cap space : 15,55 M$ (15 players)
RFA
We have 3 RFA, but I expect only KK will get a rise. It will depend how good he plays this season, but we can probably expect a cheaper bridge contract anyway. For Lehkonen, I could see a lower salary if the economic situation remains the same.
8- Kotkaniemi : 3 M$
9- Lehkonen : 2 M$
7- Mete : 0,750 M$
Cap space : 9,8 M$ (18 players)
UFA + rookies
We need to add 5 forwards for that price. I think Danault has to be signed, because nobody can do what he does as well as him in the system. I will even add Armia, even if we could decide to move on from him at this point.
10- Danault : 5 M$
11- Armia : 3,5 M$
And I think we can expect a few youngsters to make the team. I'll add 3 of them.
12- Caufield : 0,850 M$
13- Poehling : 0,925 M$
14- Ylonen : 0,881 M$
Cap space : 3,644 M$ (23 players)
Expansion draft
Here comes the unpredictable part. One of our signed players will be drafted by Seattle, freeing cap space for us. I think the most likely scenario is that we protect 7 forwards (Drouin, Anderson, Toffoli, Gallagher, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Armia), 3 defensemen (Weber, Petry, Chiarot) and 1 goalie (Price). That leaves Lehkonen, Byron, Edmundson, Kulak and Allen exposed. Lehkonen and Allen are probably the 2 most likely candidates to be drafted. Let's say it's Allen, and we replace him with Primeau.
Cap space after expansion draft : 5,64 M$
Then we replace Allen with Primeau.
Drouin - Suzuki - Caufield
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Ylonen - Kotkaniemi - Anderson
Lehkonen - Evans - Armia
Byron, Poehling
Romanov - Weber
Chiarot - Petry
Edmundson - Mete
Kulak
Price
Primeau
-------------------
Where does that leaves us?
We lose Tatar and Weal, but are easily able to retain all the other core players and more. And we still have over 5 millions in cap space. We could easily get more cap space by not signing Armia, or by trading Byron or Lehkonen. This would give us enough dollar to re-sign Tatar, or even a more expensive LW.
In conclusion, keeping our core intact absolutely won't be a problem, even with a flat cap, especially with the expansion draft coming.
The challenge might only come in 2022-23, if Suzuki needs a big raise. But until then, this team won't be in cap hell.