Speculation: How we fit under the cap in 21-22
- Thread starter WatchfulElm
- Start date
SOLR
Registered User
It's coming. A few teams could go bankrupt in the next 2-3 years.
OldCraig71
Registered User
I think that the NHL more than the other big 3 sporting leagues needs this pandemic to end. The NHL does not have the type of income from tv that the other big sports have and a lot of its small market/fanbase teams might not survive this.
CauZuki
Registered User
- Feb 19, 2008
- 12,339
- 12,171
Danault could be a goner and perhaps even Tatar/Byron as well.
Team might look something like this in 2021-2022:
Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Toffoli - KK - Gallagher
Armia - Poehling - Caufield
Lekhonen - Evans - Hillis
Romanov - Weber
Edmundson - Petry
Chiarot - Mete/Juulsen/Brook
Price
Allen
Team might look something like this in 2021-2022:
Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Toffoli - KK - Gallagher
Armia - Poehling - Caufield
Lekhonen - Evans - Hillis
Romanov - Weber
Edmundson - Petry
Chiarot - Mete/Juulsen/Brook
Price
Allen
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Losing Tatar and Danault will make this team much worse. Byron will likely be sacrificed to fit under the cap and Weal buried unless both are claimed through waivers before opening night. Highly doubt they get picked though. Byron can also be dealt for a pick but his high caphit will get you a slim return and makes him very difficult to move.
I think if Drouin can step it up this year, Tatar will definitely be gone. Honestly though, I think Drouin is the weakest link on a very well balanced team right now. I am not so sure, management wants to part ways with Danault.
I see a Drouin buyout coming, likely exposed to Seattle. Tatar has been great ever since coming here.
CauZuki
Registered User
- Feb 19, 2008
- 12,339
- 12,171
Drouin had some real nice chemistry with Suzuki , I don't like players that completly disappear in playoffs.
Roadhouse
Bring me back to 2006...
So, we're up against the cap right now. What if Geoff wants to add a UFA next year?
+1.1M raise for Lehkonen
+2.4M raise for KK
+1.5M raise for Danault
+1.0M (little less) for Caufield coming in
_________________________
Total: +6.5M AAV
-700K in not qualifying Mete, LHD overload
-4.8M for letting Tatar walk
-1.4M for letting Weal walk
-2.0M in net Alzner savings
-1.4M in Allen savings
_________________________
Total: -10.3M AAV
Net difference = keeping Armia & adding a small piece OR letting Armia go and signing 1 bigger piece.
Weal and Mete will not be on our starting roster this year IMO so the only swap is Tatar out - Caufield in, with one of Toff/Cole playing the left side. Half our D will be on a contract year in 21-22, with prospects pushing hard to come in on their own ELCs.
To me that's what it comes down to, not knowing what the Kraken will do... in my mind one of Allen/Edmundson will leave for Seattle. We have depth in the farm system to replace either, it doesn't have an impact other than giving us cap space since Edmundson's replacement would be on ELC (Primeau as well, if Allen leaves).
If we let Armia go at the end of the year and say Edmundson is picked at the draft, we'll have an amount in the 5-6.5M range to throw at a LW UFA - an amount which seems to be Bergevin's sweet spot for top 6 forwards. Get that quality forward for 21-22, take a year to adapt, bring Norlinder in / Kulak out then win the Cup in the Summer of 2023 for our 30th anniversary. Profit.
+1.1M raise for Lehkonen
+2.4M raise for KK
+1.5M raise for Danault
+1.0M (little less) for Caufield coming in
_________________________
Total: +6.5M AAV
-700K in not qualifying Mete, LHD overload
-4.8M for letting Tatar walk
-1.4M for letting Weal walk
-2.0M in net Alzner savings
-1.4M in Allen savings
_________________________
Total: -10.3M AAV
Net difference = keeping Armia & adding a small piece OR letting Armia go and signing 1 bigger piece.
Weal and Mete will not be on our starting roster this year IMO so the only swap is Tatar out - Caufield in, with one of Toff/Cole playing the left side. Half our D will be on a contract year in 21-22, with prospects pushing hard to come in on their own ELCs.
To me that's what it comes down to, not knowing what the Kraken will do... in my mind one of Allen/Edmundson will leave for Seattle. We have depth in the farm system to replace either, it doesn't have an impact other than giving us cap space since Edmundson's replacement would be on ELC (Primeau as well, if Allen leaves).
If we let Armia go at the end of the year and say Edmundson is picked at the draft, we'll have an amount in the 5-6.5M range to throw at a LW UFA - an amount which seems to be Bergevin's sweet spot for top 6 forwards. Get that quality forward for 21-22, take a year to adapt, bring Norlinder in / Kulak out then win the Cup in the Summer of 2023 for our 30th anniversary. Profit.
Let Armia, Tatar walk. Edmundson or Allen claimed in the ED.
Extend Danault $5m x 6 years, Kotkaniemi $5.5m x 6 years, Lehkonen $2m x 4 years, Poeling $1M x 2
Sign Caufield, Harris, Norlinder, Mysak, Ikonen
Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Toffoli - Kotkaniemi - Gallagher
Poeling - Danault - Caufield
Lehkonen - Evans - Byron
Chiarot - Weber
Romanov - Petry
Edmundson - Fleury
Price
Primeau
I believe Kotkaniemi and Suzuki will both prove themselves to be every day top 6 centres by the end of this season and will be due substantial raises. Habs seem to like to sign their young core players to 6 year deals (Pacioretty, Gallagher, Price, Drouin all signed 6 year deals their first time up with Bergevin) so I'm guessing a 6 year deal for KK.
Hopefully by the time Suzuki is up the cap has moved a little, plus the Habs can move the Byron contract, even if they have to pay to do it. Chiarot will be up by then so that should be enough to sign Suzuki to a 6 year deal somewhere around $6-7M.
Gallagher got 6 years on his UFA contract so I'm predicting the same for Danault. That's the same contract as Pageau's deal and I think that's a good comp for Danault.
For complimentary players, the Habs tend to prefer 4 year deals (Byron, Desharnais, Alzner, Toffoli, Edmundson), which is why I think Lehkonen will likely get a 4 year deal.
I think with Covid, term is actually the best way forward for teams. By giving term, they keep the AAV low to weather the cap storm now, but when the cap finally goes up, it will only make the value better. This only works if you're signing the right guys, which I think there's doing a lot better now than they were a few years ago.
I think the idea of bridging Kotkaniemi or Suzuki is a little risky, much like the Subban bridge. If you bridge a guy and he explodes, now you're in cap hell. If Subban had been offered a 6 year deal instead of a bridge maybe you get him for $5M x 6. You give KK a 2-year bridge at 21 and he hits 23 and he's a 6'2" PPG 200-ft player...now you're not looking at $5-6M, you're looking at 9-10M.
Similarly, the risk is reasonably low, even if KK or Suzuki doesn't explode, but sort of plateau's as a solid 2C.
I like this team and I think the core pieces could be here for a long time - KK, Suzuki, Danault, Gallagher, Anderson, Drouin, Weber, Petry, Romanov, Price. This structure also the core to stay together and be complimented by good players like Toffoli, Chiarot, Lehkonen, Evans. I like the group of D coming in - Norlinder, Guhle, Harris. I think the goaltending looks good. Finally, this team is starting to look like a proper program again.
Extend Danault $5m x 6 years, Kotkaniemi $5.5m x 6 years, Lehkonen $2m x 4 years, Poeling $1M x 2
Sign Caufield, Harris, Norlinder, Mysak, Ikonen
Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Toffoli - Kotkaniemi - Gallagher
Poeling - Danault - Caufield
Lehkonen - Evans - Byron
Chiarot - Weber
Romanov - Petry
Edmundson - Fleury
Price
Primeau
I believe Kotkaniemi and Suzuki will both prove themselves to be every day top 6 centres by the end of this season and will be due substantial raises. Habs seem to like to sign their young core players to 6 year deals (Pacioretty, Gallagher, Price, Drouin all signed 6 year deals their first time up with Bergevin) so I'm guessing a 6 year deal for KK.
Hopefully by the time Suzuki is up the cap has moved a little, plus the Habs can move the Byron contract, even if they have to pay to do it. Chiarot will be up by then so that should be enough to sign Suzuki to a 6 year deal somewhere around $6-7M.
Gallagher got 6 years on his UFA contract so I'm predicting the same for Danault. That's the same contract as Pageau's deal and I think that's a good comp for Danault.
For complimentary players, the Habs tend to prefer 4 year deals (Byron, Desharnais, Alzner, Toffoli, Edmundson), which is why I think Lehkonen will likely get a 4 year deal.
I think with Covid, term is actually the best way forward for teams. By giving term, they keep the AAV low to weather the cap storm now, but when the cap finally goes up, it will only make the value better. This only works if you're signing the right guys, which I think there's doing a lot better now than they were a few years ago.
I think the idea of bridging Kotkaniemi or Suzuki is a little risky, much like the Subban bridge. If you bridge a guy and he explodes, now you're in cap hell. If Subban had been offered a 6 year deal instead of a bridge maybe you get him for $5M x 6. You give KK a 2-year bridge at 21 and he hits 23 and he's a 6'2" PPG 200-ft player...now you're not looking at $5-6M, you're looking at 9-10M.
Similarly, the risk is reasonably low, even if KK or Suzuki doesn't explode, but sort of plateau's as a solid 2C.
I like this team and I think the core pieces could be here for a long time - KK, Suzuki, Danault, Gallagher, Anderson, Drouin, Weber, Petry, Romanov, Price. This structure also the core to stay together and be complimented by good players like Toffoli, Chiarot, Lehkonen, Evans. I like the group of D coming in - Norlinder, Guhle, Harris. I think the goaltending looks good. Finally, this team is starting to look like a proper program again.
Roadhouse
Bring me back to 2006...
^^this line is really weird
I agree with a lot of what you said, though I'm wondering if you meant Ylonen here instead of Ikonen. I think it's best for our cap structure and for Cole's development that we wait until next year to bring him in... as for Harris I think he's a future NHLer but spends another year, maybe two in university. Very smart kid, received a scholarship. Mysak will likely stay in juniors for a little while, but I'm glad to read that he was loaned to a Czech club. Poehling less than a year ago was still raving about a 3-man team on Fortnite with Fleury and Evans, and was passed over by the coaching staff in the last camp/playoffs; I see him as a bottom 6 LW, only 1 to 3 years from now. Same timeline for Norlinder IMO. Lehkonen will get more money than $2M AAV because of how versatile and valuable he is. He tends to get underrated and he's clutch in the most unexpected moments (though you'd expect more consistency), like the GWG against the Pens this year. Lehkonen also gets in players' heads if I go by Couturier's cheap shot here, which got him all kinds of 'baby' and sore loser posts on here.
MasterD
Giggidy Giggidy Goo
- Jul 1, 2004
- 5,623
- 5,002
Would suck for those markets, but great for the league's product. Talent is really diluted, there's a bunch of teams with players on their 2nd lines that shouldn't be there. Wish there were 24 teams with talent more concentrated.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I'm a fan of the soft style Drouin but it's not zero chance we expose him. No more excuses. Our top 9 is deep and Drouin will get a solid shot with Suzuki and Anderson so if he can't put up 60 pts or be consistent for a full year, there is a chance he is not protected.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Wild cards are...
1) Who we loose in the expansion draft.
2) What does Kotkaniemi do and do we bridge him or sign him long term. On a bridge, AAV should not be higher than $5M and I'm hoping it's around $4M.
^^this line is really weird
I agree with a lot of what you said, though I'm wondering if you meant Ylonen here instead of Ikonen. I think it's best for our cap structure and for Cole's development that we wait until next year to bring him in... as for Harris I think he's a future NHLer but spends another year, maybe two in university. Very smart kid, received a scholarship. Mysak will likely stay in juniors for a little while, but I'm glad to read that he was loaned to a Czech club. Poehling less than a year ago was still raving about a 3-man team on Fortnite with Fleury and Evans, and was passed over by the coaching staff in the last camp/playoffs; I see him as a bottom 6 LW, only 1 to 3 years from now. Same timeline for Norlinder IMO. Lehkonen will get more money than $2M AAV because of how versatile and valuable he is. He tends to get underrated and he's clutch in the most unexpected moments (though you'd expect more consistency), like the GWG against the Pens this year. Lehkonen also gets in players' heads if I go by Couturier's cheap shot here, which got him all kinds of 'baby' and sore loser posts on here.
Thanks yeah, I know that Poeling-Danault-Caufield line looks like a strange line on it's face. I see it as an opportunity for Danault to mentor 2 young kids and get them playing the right way while giving us 3 offensive lines. Don't forget, this lineup is for 2021-22, so Caufield both will have another year of development. I could easily see him still playing a year of AHL if he doesn't make the team but I personally think he'll be on the roster in 21-22. Poeling may play 20-21 in the AHL but I would be surprised if he's not a full time player in Montreal by 21-22. Danault would likely move to more of a shutdown role in the playoffs, so I could see the wingers moving around a bit.
Personally I think by 21-22 Caufield and Poeling will be ready to be everyday top 9 players who can move around the lineup. But if they're not they can easily play AHL or further down the lineup and guys like Lehkonen can move back into the top 9. Long term, I see Caufield moving into the top 6, paired with Suzuki or KK as a shooter, but a 1-2 year apprenticeship with Danault may help round out his game.
Ylonen is already signed which is why he wasn't included in the "moves" I listed. The Habs will need to sign Ikonen by Jun 21. I like the idea of bringing he and Norlinder over for the 21-22 season to play in Laval, along with Ylonen, Hillis, Harris, and Guhle. But certainly, they'll only sign Ikonen if he plays well this year. Norlinder I could see staying another year but I'd rather see him continue his development in an NA rink. Maybe playing 1-2 full seasons in Laval before graduating.
Harris I think could stay for his senior year but I'd be inclined to try to sign him after next year and not risk having him become a UFA. He's a Boston kid so I think there's a danger of losing him to a US team if he's allowed to play 4 years of NCAA. I see Harris and Caufield signing after their 20-21 NCAA seasons are over, burning a year off their respective ELCs. I agree, it would be ideal to delay their ELCs to at least the start of the 21-22 season but NCAA guys have some leverage in terms of controlling when they turn pro and can always just play their 4 years and walk to UFA. So I think it's worth it to burn a year, like they did with Poeling and Romanov. I would expect Harris to play 1-2 seasons in Laval before graduating, like Norlinder (I think they'd make good partners).
I really like the idea of having some young guys come up together through Laval, like a lot of the TB guys did. If they can play important roles on a winning AHL team they're more likely to contribute in Montreal when they finally get the call.
I don't see Lehkonen getting much more than $2M on a 4 year deal just because he doesn't have the raw numbers. Unless he scores 20 next year I think he's somewhere between $2-3M on a 4 year deal. I think that's an affect of the C19 budgeting. Normally, he might get $3m+ but I think players like him are and will continue to get squeezed. I love him as a player but that's just how I see the economics playing out.
