Speculation: How much do we regress, if at all?

[M2Beezy]

I can see us actually getting better if the team can get a higher winning percentage and then go further in the playoffs then last year. But if we cant do that then yeah we will definitely do worse

FACT

 

[lawrence]

how much of a step back do we take this coming season from last year’s finish?
Imo we are a lesser team now (without Marky, Tanev, and Tofoli) than we were to ens last season. I’m saying we fall out of a playoff team and finish next to Ottawa as the second worst team in the Canadian Division.

Markstrom and Tanev was replaced with Smitdt and Holtby. Somewhat lateral moves, Toffoli played 10 NHL games with us, and we managed to win 2 series without him although it's great to have him in the line up, he won't be considered a huge loss if you ask me.

teams are planning to use this season as a tank season I believe I don't think we will regress..... there are 4 playoff spots available and there are 7 teams, I think we can manage to take a top 4 spot. Kinda lucky actually every other div has 8 teams

An injury to Hughes or Pettersson and we're sunk.

a similar injury to any other team in our div will have the same effect.

 

[rypper]

a similar injury to any other team in our div will have the same effect.

I disagree. A similar injury would hurt other teams but they have the depth to shoulder the weight without it being catastrophic, something the Canucks lack.

 

[Diversification]

The biggest wildcard is in net. Marky came up huge for us last season, but priced and aged himself off the team (due to bad cap management).

If Demko can take the reins with Holtby spelling him off, we are in better shape.

Then it falls to our shallow defense where we need some of our prospects (or last minute cheap signing) to step up and secure the bottom pairing.

If both of those things go our way, we might even take a step forwards.

But all of those things are happening in the backdrop of a weird shortened all-Canada division season. This could work to our advantage in that the Canadian teams' systems don't do a good job of exposing our faults in defensive coverage in our own end. The exception to this is WPG.

 

[Hit the post]

...well, we likely aren't a playoff team last year if it isn't for Covid.

We essentially lost two injury prone guys in Markstrom and Tanev and got in a worse goalie and a better defenseman in Holtby and Schultz.

The reality is, in a non-shortened season, Tanev and Markstrom are both hurt to end last season and we miss the playoffs finishing bottom 5.

I think we do better than that but worse than our Covid assisted finish.

Marky had 60 starts in each of the previous two seasons before the COVID shortened season. Demko had *NEVER* played remotely close to 60 games in a season (amateur or pro career). I would be less worried about Marky’s ‘injury history’ than Demko’s lack of being tested over the marathon of a regular season even with Holtby as backup (who hardly put put great numbers lately).

 

[Pip]

Subtractions: Tanev, Markstrom, Stecher, Toffoli*
Additions: Schmidt, Holtby, Juolevi?

Players likely to improve: EP, Gaudette
Players likely to regress: Miller, Virtanen, Edler
Likely to perform around the same level: Hughes, Horvat, Pearson, Myers

I honestly think that goaltending is going to be a major factor here. Can this tandem give us similar play to what Markstrom did last year? I have my doubts

*Toffoli barely counts as a subtraction

 

[m9]

I think it's unlikely Demko/Holtby can play at the same level as Markstrom/Demko did last year.

I think the defense might be better or similar in terms of talent but it's unlikely they will be as healthy as last year.

Can they replace Toffoli's production? Can Miller match his career year? That will be tough.

If Holtby can play well and they stay healthy on the blueline, they can match last year. If not, they will be in a fight for that bottom spot.

 

[Peen]

That bottom pairing will have to be an improvement on what we had last season if they want to mitigate the loss of Markstrom. Schmidt doesn’t cover it completely.

And we haven’t even gotten into replacing Toffoli and Leivo with nothing as well.

I’ve seen a lot of optimism about this years team being as good as last years or better but I think it’ll be worse.

Probably still do about as well as they did last year - bubble team that squeaks in or just misses.

 

[Luck 6]

I personally don't think we're going to regress at all.. I say we make playoffs. The reasons why are as follows:

1) Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser, Virtanen, Horvat, and Gaudette are all young players who SHOULD improve year over year at this stage in their careers. I don't think they all will, but if a couple of these guys have career years and take a step forward it will easily cancel out our losses. More on this next.

2) We lost Toffoli, Tanev, and Stecher as notable players. Toffoli really only played 10 regular season games for us, and mostly while Boeser was injured. He then played 7 playoff games as well, but for the most part we succeeded in spite of him last season. I think he can be replaced by a deadline acquisition, or someone like Virtanen stepping up a bit. Losing Tanev hurts, but Schmidt is a far superior player, so I'd say this is a plus for us. Stecher was a warrior for us, but he was just a No. 5 defenseman; we should be able to either sign someone before the season starts, acquire someone at the deadline to fill this role, or hope that one of Juolevi / Rathbone / Rafferty perform better than expected.

3) The BIG loss is Markstrom, I'm not going to pretend that this one doesn't hurt the most on many levels. With that being said, I am HOPING that one of Holtby or Demko will be able to step up admirably to fill this role. Demko played actually quite good the last 5 starts that he made last season posting above 0.906 in all of them, and above 0.918 in 3 of them. He was starting to get used to the rigors of starting every night and he was showing progression. I personally think that he's going to do well for us this year, and that an internal goalie battle might do the team well in a congested schedule where we will need two good starting goalies to be successful.

So in summary, I think internal growth of our young core will cancel out any losses that we may have had. And, I think we can pick up any depth pieces that we may need along the way.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

The biggest wildcard is in net. Marky came up huge for us last season, but priced and aged himself off the team (due to bad cap management).

If Demko can take the reins with Holtby spelling him off, we are in better shape.

Then it falls to our shallow defense where we need some of our prospects (or last minute cheap signing) to step up and secure the bottom pairing.

If both of those things go our way, we might even take a step forwards.

But all of those things are happening in the backdrop of a weird shortened all-Canada division season. This could work to our advantage in that the Canadian teams' systems don't do a good job of exposing our faults in defensive coverage in our own end. The exception to this is WPG.

No denying we lost good players due to bad cap management, but Marky left because we couldn't offer him protection at the ED...Also, how do you blame his age on 'cap management'..?..He didnt demonstrate Vezina level goaltending until he was 29..?

 

[Diversification]

No denying we lost good players due to bad cap management, but Marky left because we couldn't offer him protection at the ED...Also, how do you blame his age on 'cap management'..?..He didnt demonstrate Vezina level goaltending until he was 29..?

I would argue that Marky was one of the good players we lost due to bad cap management. There was probably a deal to be had where we could give him a shorter term higher cap hit contract without ED protection were it not for the fact that LE, JB, BS, SB, and AR are taking up way too much capspace for what they bring to make that a possibility.

If we could, it would have made more sense to do that rather than Holtby on a 2-year term in that it gives us security in net and a bit more runway to decide on which goalie to stick with long term.

I hardly see this as a controversial position to take.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

I would argue that Marky was one of the good players we lost due to bad cap management. There was probably a deal to be had where we could give him a shorter term higher cap hit contract without ED protection were it not for the fact that LE, JB, BS, SB, and AR are taking up way too much capspace for what they bring to make that a possibility.

If we could, it would have made more sense to do that rather than Holtby on a 2-year term in that it gives us security in net and a bit more runway to decide on which goalie to stick with long term.

I hardly see this as a controversial position to take.

In his own words Marky said that security (a NMC) was one of the main reasons he signed in Calgary...so..no..cap space wasn't the decider...The Canucks $ were not that far off from Calgarys..

 

[Diversification]

In his own words Marky said that security (a NMC) was one of the main reasons he signed in Calgary...so..no..cap space wasn't the decider...The Canucks $ were not that far off from Calgarys..

Maybe. We'll never know because we didn't have the cap flexibility to try negotiate given our present situation.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Maybe. We'll never know because we didn't have the cap flexibility to try negotiate given our present situation.

We do know, because we could only retain one goalie...and the management went Demko...If we had offered Marky $5.5 M or whatever it was , and an NMC..he would be a Canuck.

 

[Diversification]

We do know, because we could only retain one goalie...and the management went Demko...If we had offered Marky $5.5 M or whatever it was , and an NMC..he would be a Canuck.

As opposed to the cap space to retain 2 on a shorter term that would afford us the time to choose which to go with.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

As opposed to the cap space to retain 2 on a shorter term that would afford us the time to choose which to go with.

Thats what the initial plan was...but Marky demanded an NMC (which he stated was important to him), which would nullify any options the Canucks could have had ..It's as simple as that.

 

[604]

Marky had 60 starts in each of the previous two seasons before the COVID shortened season. Demko had *NEVER* played remotely close to 60 games in a season (amateur or pro career). I would be less worried about Marky’s ‘injury history’ than Demko’s lack of being tested over the marathon of a regular season even with Holtby as backup (who hardly put put great numbers lately).

I don't like that we have two goalies that weren't starter level replacing a guy who was great - when he played - last year, either.

That being said, given the type of injuries Marky sustained last year, and his age, I would worry that his injuries last year are a trend rather then a one off (so I wouldn't have handed him the contract he got either).

The only guys we lost that I would have handed the same contracts to are Stetcher and Leivo...and I don't think we had that option on the latter.

 

[Canuckle1970]

Assuming our good players continue/improve, then the keys I'm watching out for:

1) Demko - with the condensed schedule, he needs to shoulder minimum 25 to 30 games with consistency (assuming Holtby is having a rebound season). Is he truly our goalie for the future, and can he stay healthy?

2) Juolevi - never forgot the negative reaction when he was drafted 5th over Tkatchuk and Nylander.
They said his strong point was his "transition game". For his and the team's sake, I hope the health issues are behind him and he gets to show us why he was drafted so high.

 

[M2Beezy]

Subtractions: Tanev, Markstrom, Stecher, Toffoli*
Additions: Schmidt, Holtby, Juolevi?

Players likely to improve: EP, Gaudette
Players likely to regress: Miller, Virtanen, Edler
Likely to perform around the same level: Hughes, Horvat, Pearson, Myers

I honestly think that goaltending is going to be a major factor here. Can this tandem give us similar play to what Markstrom did last year? I have my doubts

*Toffoli barely counts as a subtraction

I agree with this tho I think the Virtanen we saw in the playoffs will be the Virtanen we get this year which is a step back from the 2019-20 reg season

Also Rathbone is a wildcard here, and may get Vatanen. MAY

 

[Hit the post]

I agree with this tho I think the Virtanen we saw in the playoffs will be the Virtanen we get this year which is a step back from the 2019-20 reg season

Also Rathbone is a wildcard here, and may get Vatanen. MAY

I think M2B has regressed but that's just my opinion. Maybe it was just an off year and he'll rebound?

 

[M2Beezy]

I think M2B has regressed but that's just my opinion. Maybe it was just an off year and he'll rebound?

Your right, i should change my avatar

 

[StreetHawk]

Thats what the initial plan was...but Marky demanded an NMC (which he stated was important to him), which would nullify any options the Canucks could have had ..It's as simple as that.

If he was going to stay, he wanted a commitment that he was their guy. Who would supplant him in Calgary or if he signed in Carolina or some other team.

I'd demand the same thing in his position. I want to know where I'm going to be for the foreseeable future when I sign as a UFA.

I'd be ticked at the non-sense that went on in TB if I was Johnson. Full NTC for the upcoming season and they ask me for a list, which I opt to give them a short one because my MNTC next season is only limited to 10 teams I won't go to. But, to get waived by TB. Darn....

 

[Didalee Hed]

Your right, i should change my avatar

You have a name change coming up. Do you have any ideas yet? Maybe rellim ot tdimhcs ?

 

[Bad Goalie]

This will be the biggest deciding factor (and if he can't, then how well Holtby can play).

I would say the next biggest issue is the defensive depth -- how well does our bottom pairing play? Can Edler keep up his play and stay healthy? If injuries hit the top 4, will Benn/Juolevi/Rathbone be able to step it up and play top 4 minutes?

The last issue is how they address that empty RW spot in the top 6? Looks like Virtanen is going to be gifted it with an outside chance of Hoglander taking it, but until Podkolzin's season ends and he can join the team, the Canucks will hopefully be able to find someone better than Jake.

So, does the LW play RW as well? He is listed as a left shooting LW. Difficult enough trying to slot a 20-yr old kid with zero NA/NHL experience to try a new position as well.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

If he was going to stay, he wanted a commitment that he was their guy. Who would supplant him in Calgary or if he signed in Carolina or some other team.

I'd demand the same thing in his position. I want to know where I'm going to be for the foreseeable future when I sign as a UFA.

I'd be ticked at the non-sense that went on in TB if I was Johnson. Full NTC for the upcoming season and they ask me for a list, which I opt to give them a short one because my MNTC next season is only limited to 10 teams I won't go to. But, to get waived by TB. Darn....

I can understand that Marky wanted a commitment (deservedly so), but there's also the flip side argument that says 'do we commit to an aging goalie, at the expense of our goalie of the future..?'

Demko has some some big boots to fill.