How many points will the Senators get with a new goalie?

[bert]

Mike Kelly was on TSN1200 this morning talking about the Blues and Sens,

Basically said that if you looked at the two teams and stripped away the names and records, asked which team was the better team based on the numbers, it would be Ottawa every time (he's a Sportlogiq guy, so likely on the merit of all that proprietary analytic stuff). Says Billington has quietly put in a top 5 goalie performance this season. StL is on pace for 90 pts, with an xGF% all situation of 46.06% (28th in the league), Ottawa is 8th in the league in all situation xGF% this year at 52.29%. Sportlogiq has it's own version of this stuff that's more sophisticated, not sure where they'd rank on that.

So, a bit of a simplistic way of thinking about it, but based on that, top tier goaltending can take a "bottom 5 team", and turn them into a bubble team, while bottom of the barrel goaltending can take a "top 10 team" and turn them int to a bottom 5 team.

Very simple way to evaluate it. But this is a prime example of why the eye test is a way more important tool in hockey evaluation. I don't know how anyone who watches this team could possibly believe goaltending is the sole and only reason this team is not a top 10 team in the league. It's a huge reason why they are bad but it's certainly not the only one. You'd have to truly not understand what you're watching to think otherwise. This team has no composure when pressure mounts. Compete level in the danger areas and winning small battles at both ends of the rink is as bad as any team in the league. That's where goals happen and that's where teams win games. Just watch the Bruins they are the antithesis of Ottawa. Similar talent levels opposite results. That's why their record with both goalies is basically identical.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Imagine watching this team and thinking goaltending is the only issue. It's clearly a problem I am by no means exonerating ot. But theres alot more going wrong.

Advanced stats are a nice tool but absolutely not how to evaluate a team and should never be the number 1 metric. 2 GM's have used it as a primary tool and have failed absolutely miserably. Chayka and Dubas. Dubas was even gifted generational talent and still managed to blow it by having no clue how to build a team that can win.

This isn't baseball. It's the opposite, hockey is the ultimate team sport. It's not individual based. There are metrics that are unmeasurable. Physicality, sacrifice and cohesion. This team is so weak in these areas. They also rarely consistently bring the same effort nightly. They don't do what it takes on the defensive side of the puck to win. They simply are not willing or able to make the sacrifices it takes to win in this league. The D core is incredibly flawed. Small, soft, easy to play against. Other teams forwards lick their chops when they see Ottawa on the schedule. They know it's going to be an easy night.

That’s something that I’ve thought of as well. When Pastrnak scored his first goal the other night, the thought that came to mind is here comes the hat trick LOL. I think the snipers see Ottawa as a good way to increase their point totals.

Boston only needed 3 goals to beat us that last game. But, they scored 4 more than we did. Were there 3 softies allowed by Korpisalo that game. I guess so if you subscribe to some of the conventional wisdom in here. I think there’s lots more to fix than goaltending though, although that’s an area that definitely does require addressing as well.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Very simple way to evaluate it. But this is a prime example of why the eye test is a way more important tool in hockey evaluation. I don't know how anyone who watches this team could possibly believe goaltending is the sole and only reason this team is not a top 10 team in the league. It's a huge reason why they are bad but it's certainly not the only one. You'd have to truly not understand what you're watching to think otherwise. This team has no composure when pressure mounts. Compete level in the danger areas and winning small battles at both ends of the rink is as bad as any team in the league. That's where goals happen and that's where teams win games. Just watch the Bruins they are the antithesis of Ottawa. Similar talent levels opposite results. That's why their record with both goalies is basically identical.

re: bolded. Interesting thought.

 

[Golden_Jet]

The thing that has killed this team is low danger shots that end up in the net.

Player	LDSV%	LD SA	LD GA
Korpisalo	.942	533	31
Forsberg	.955	267	12

64 goalies have played at least 18 games this season. Of those 64, the average LDSV% is .962. If we take the 800 low danger shots against and apply the .962 sv% to it, we end up with 30GA, compared to the 43GA we've realized.

If you isolate the stats to goalies who have played 24+ games this year, Forsberg is 39th in low danger sv% and Korpisalo is 49th (Gustavsson is last). That's just bizarre. I could see how 1 goalie could be that low if they're having a bad year but why both?

Which goalie do the Sens get for the poll.

 

[Micklebot]

Very simple way to evaluate it. But this is a prime example of why the eye test is a way more important tool in hockey evaluation. I don't know how anyone who watches this team could possibly believe goaltending is the sole and only reason this team is not a top 10 team in the league. It's a huge reason why they are bad but it's certainly not the only one. You'd have to truly not understand what you're watching to think otherwise. This team has no composure when pressure mounts. Compete level in the danger areas and winning small battles at both ends of the rink is as bad as any team in the league. That's where goals happen and that's where teams win games. Just watch the Bruins they are the antithesis of Ottawa. Similar talent levels opposite results. That's why their record with both goalies is basically identical.

I don't think anyone is suggesting goaltending is the only reason we aren't a top 10 team, or that the stats are a perfect representation of how teams are playing; the fancy stats have their limitations, and I think most people (especially those like Mike Kelly who work professionally with them) understand those limitations. What

In terms of why both goalies on the bruins have identical stats, Ulmark is putting up similar stats to his time in Buffalo, how do you reconcile that with the claim that compete in the danger areas is why Bruins goaltending is consistent across both guys?

 

[HSF]

Imagine watching this team and thinking goaltending is the only issue. It's clearly a problem I am by no means exonerating ot. But theres alot more going wrong.

Advanced stats are a nice tool but absolutely not how to evaluate a team and should never be the number 1 metric. 2 GM's have used it as a primary tool and have failed absolutely miserably. Chayka and Dubas. Dubas was even gifted generational talent and still managed to blow it by having no clue how to build a team that can win.

This isn't baseball. It's the opposite, hockey is the ultimate team sport. It's not individual based. There are metrics that are unmeasurable. Physicality, sacrifice and cohesion. This team is so weak in these areas. They also rarely consistently bring the same effort nightly. They don't do what it takes on the defensive side of the puck to win. They simply are not willing or able to make the sacrifices it takes to win in this league. The D core is incredibly flawed. Small, soft, easy to play against. Other teams forwards lick their chops when they see Ottawa on the schedule. They know it's going to be an easy night.

Watching the game does not also show the confidence that the players have in their goalie.

Having confidence in your goalie will change how you play and react especially in the defensive zone

Not saying that is the teams only issue but playing behind from a shitty goal takes a toll on teams over and over again.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Watching the game does not also show the confidence that the players have in their goalie.

Having confidence in your goalie will change how you play and react especially in the defensive zone

Not saying that is the teams only issue but playing behind from a shitty goal takes a toll on teams over and over again.

Does it not work both ways though?

 

[Micklebot]

That’s something that I’ve thought of as well. When Pastrnak scored his first goal the other night, the thought that came to mind is here comes the hat trick LOL. I think the snipers see Ottawa as a good way to increase their point totals.

Boston only needed 3 goals to beat us that last game. But, they scored 4 more than we did. Were there 3 softies allowed by Korpisalo that game. I guess so if you subscribe to some of the conventional wisdom in here. I think there’s lots more to fix than goaltending though, although that’s an area that definitely does require addressing as well.

It's worth noting that the "Fancy Stats" suggest that 5 of Boston's 6 goals were on High danger chances, and 1 was a medium danger chance. our High danger shots against/60 (not chances but actual shots that made it to the net) was roughtly double our season average, the eye test and the stats imo match pretty well, we fell apart defensively, and hung the goalie out to dry,

On the flip side, the night against Carolina, Forsberg allowed 2 HD goals on 5 shots (lower than our season average), 3 MD goals on 9 shots and 2 LD goals on 22 shots. We didn't play great against Carolina, but the goaltending wasn't good either.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

You give Korpisalo a good Team in front of him and his Save% will be .910-.920 as he has shown in the past many times. No debate about it

Will that team be able to cut down on low danger scoring opportunities?

Also we had a large stretch of great defensive hockey lol. His number still shit

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Mike Kelly was on TSN1200 this morning talking about the Blues and Sens,

Basically said that if you looked at the two teams and stripped away the names and records, asked which team was the better team based on the numbers, it would be Ottawa every time (he's a Sportlogiq guy, so likely on the merit of all that proprietary analytic stuff). Says Billington has quietly put in a top 5 goalie performance this season. StL is on pace for 90 pts, with an xGF% all situation of 46.06% (28th in the league), Ottawa is 8th in the league in all situation xGF% this year at 52.29%. Sportlogiq has it's own version of this stuff that's more sophisticated, not sure where they'd rank on that.

So, a bit of a simplistic way of thinking about it, but based on that, top tier goaltending can take a "bottom 5 team", and turn them into a bubble team, while bottom of the barrel goaltending can take a "top 10 team" and turn them int to a bottom 5 team.

Wasn’t that Johnson?

We are the favourites tonight. Acknowledging it’s a home game but still…. Maybe the bookies don’t know how bad our goaltending is?

I’m taking the Sens though.

 

[Micklebot]

Wasn’t that Johnson?

We are the favourites tonight. Acknowledging it’s a home game but still…. Maybe the bookies don’t know how bad our goaltending is?

I’m taking the Sens though.

Ah crap, maybe it was. I had it on in the background so I wasn't really focused in on it, my bad...

 

[bert]

Will that team be able to cut down on low danger scoring opportunities?

Also we had a large stretch of great defensive hockey lol. His number still shit

Absurd comment by the person you are answering. He has been horrid in ottawa. Lets in goals that would deflate any team that are inexcusable. Every 2nd or 3rd game theres a goal so bad 90% of the rest of the goalies wouldnt let in all season.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Absurd comment by the person you are answering. He has been horrid in ottawa. Lets in goals that would deflate any team that are inexcusable. Every 2nd or 3rd game theres a goal so bad 90% of the rest of the goalies wouldnt let in all season.

I had this chat with my buddies who don’t cheer for the sens. They laughed at the goal against the isles. I was like. This is a common occurrence. That was especially bad obviously but yeah. Every other game there is an atrocious goal. Where he seem to just miss the puck

 

[bert]

I had this chat with my buddies who don’t cheer for the sens. They laughed at the goal against the isles. I was like. This is a common occurrence. That was especially bad obviously but yeah. Every other game there is an atrocious goal. Where he seem to just miss the puck

It happened the first game of the season and has not stopped.

 

[Xspyrit]

Why would you leave out Dec. 18-Jan. 13 when Martin was the coach?

We're 41 games into his coaching tenure this season and the results are virtually the same as they were under DJ. We've figured out one thing this year: it was definitely not a coaching problem that this team had. I don't know why you keep trying to finesse the numbers to present this cherry-picked argument.

The answer is right in the post you quoted. With time and experience, I have learned that it's better to always preface things but I still get these questions anyway lol. Or maybe it wasn't clear enough? "were partially capable of fixing many issues in a few weeks"

I don't think anybody, or at least the vast majority, were expecting Martin to turn the ship around right away. The thought was that the team under DJ was clearly not playing the right way and were lacking attention to details and good 2-way habits. It would have been VERY naive to expect a quicker turnaround (even if partial) than that and January 13th was actually faster than I initially thought. Goaltending has been just as bad though and I'd say even worse since their task is a lot easier than under DJ. Oh and it really isn't about "the record" for me.

You don't have to "subscribe to it" if you don't want to but I think there's enough posters here who understand this argument and that it has nothing to do with cherry picking. Despite some improvements, they still had a 7 games losing streak after that date so again, not cherry picked.

Thinking this team would get 110+ is absurd

Over 100 is wild in and of itself, but at least has a slight possibility

Don't think anyone voted 110 seriously. Frankly, I have no idea how to answer this poll as I find it's impossible to answer for next year because there's a million other factors outside of goaltending. Maybe the question should have been an hypothetical for THIS season with different goaltending

Imagine watching this team and thinking goaltending is the only issue. It's clearly a problem I am by no means exonerating ot. But theres alot more going wrong.

Advanced stats are a nice tool but absolutely not how to evaluate a team and should never be the number 1 metric. 2 GM's have used it as a primary tool and have failed absolutely miserably. Chayka and Dubas. Dubas was even gifted generational talent and still managed to blow it by having no clue how to build a team that can win.

This isn't baseball. It's the opposite, hockey is the ultimate team sport. It's not individual based. There are metrics that are unmeasurable. Physicality, sacrifice and cohesion. This team is so weak in these areas. They also rarely consistently bring the same effort nightly. They don't do what it takes on the defensive side of the puck to win. They simply are not willing or able to make the sacrifices it takes to win in this league. The D core is incredibly flawed. Small, soft, easy to play against. Other teams forwards lick their chops when they see Ottawa on the schedule. They know it's going to be an easy night.

If you kept track on my posting this season (and even before), I never thought goaltending was the only issue and was actually arguing that some posters were putting too much blame/emphasis on the problem. That said, I have been forced to acknowledge this season that our goaltending has been terrible and way way below average. Just average goaltending would have made this team much more competitive.

I can't post all my posting history in every post but I have noted a lot of additional issues along the way (coaching, Hamonic, Kubalik, roster construction like making of the bottom-6, type of wingers we had, lack of elements in the D-squad, etc). I just can't repeat all of this in every post as it's not possible and some people already complain that some of my posts are too long lol

I also never said advanced stats are everything but I think expected goals should almost not been called as advanced stats anymore. Teams that TEND to outshot, outcorsi and outchance their opposition on a regular basis TEND to do well in the results over a long period of time. That's all there is to it. Teams like Oilers, Panthers, Canes, Stars... this is the teams I want the Sens to look like on the ice.