How many points will the Senators get with a new goalie?

[UglyPuckling]

How many points will the Senators get next year if they have a new goalie:

a. Less than 100

b. Between 100 to 109

c. Over 110 points

Assume it's at least an average to above average goalie but not a Hasek/Roy/Brodeur/Hellebuyck level goalie.

This is my first poll, so hopefully I did it correctly.

Click to read more...

 

[Answer]

Same amount obviously

The Team defense is just bad

 

[PlayOn]

I don’t know how anyone can possibly answer this question without knowing who the goalie is. The answer is wildly different if it’s Ullmark or Campbell.

We also have no idea what the roster will look like. This question might be better asked in September.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

21 games below .850. 21

 

[UglyPuckling]

I don’t know how anyone can possibly answer this question without knowing who the goalie is. The answer is wildly different if it’s Ullmark or Campbell.

We also have no idea what the roster will look like. This question might be better asked in September.

Its just for fun so don’t worry about it.

Just assume its a good goalie and much better than the ones we have currently.

Given there’s a lot of talk about our bad goaltending, how much better do you think the Senators will be if they had better goaltending?

21 games below .850. 21

The poll didn’t ask for save percentage data.

 

[bicboi64]

95

 

[Answer]

Its just for fun so don’t worry about it.

Just assume its a good goalie and much better than the ones we have currently.

Given there’s a lot of talk about our bad goaltending, how much better do you think the Senators will be if they had better goaltending?


The poll didn’t ask for save percentage data.

You give Korpisalo a good Team in front of him and his Save% will be .910-.920 as he has shown in the past many times. No debate about it

 

[Dan Patrick]

21 games below .850. 21

Using this breakdown if we get consistent goaltending above .880 save % we win more than 50% of our games. If we directly apply that to the 28 games where our goaltending was dog water and just go .500 we’d be a 40 win team right now and firmly in the first wildcard spot. I still say we finish just shy of 100 but we’d be in the playoffs for sure.

 

[Dan Patrick]

You give Korpisalo a good Team in front of him and his Save% will be .910-.920 as he has shown in the past many times. No debate about it

Korpi has let in plenty of goals this season that have nothing to do with team defence. Bad goaltending can also turn into a vicious cycle where the team plays with low confidence because they know every mistake is going to cost them a goal. Guys on D are gripping their sticks too tight which leads to bad breakouts and turnovers.

 

[PlayOn]

Its just for fun so don’t worry about it.

Just assume its a good goalie and much better than the ones we have currently.

Given there’s a lot of talk about our bad goaltending, how much better do you think the Senators will be if they had better goaltending?


The poll didn’t ask for save percentage data.

With this years roster and a good but not elite goalie? Still under 100 points. But I would say in the 90s range.

I think they’re in the mix to potentially get a wild card spot basically.

 

[Answer]

Korpi has let in plenty of goals this season that have nothing to do with team defence. Bad goaltending can also turn into a vicious cycle where the team plays with low confidence because they know every mistake is going to cost them a goal. Guys on D are gripping their sticks too tight which leads to bad breakouts and turnovers.

Every goalie gives soft goals here and there. We have scored our share of weak goals, as well, against other goalies.

A goalie deflating a Teams confidence can also go the other way, too. A team bad defensive structure/coverages for a long period of time could really derail a goalie's confidence too. That is why we have 2 goalies (who have shown great numbers in the past) both struggling with their Save% and are hovering around the same save percentage which is a good .10-.15 behind their career percentages. This stat alone tells a very telling story within itself

A goalie's stats is directly coalited with Teams defense over a 60+ games, especially when we have 2 different goalies as a subject matter.

Anyhow that is my logical take on the situation

 

[bicboi64]

You give Korpisalo a good Team in front of him and his Save% will be .910-.920 as he has shown in the past many times. No debate about it

He's had 3 seasons about .900, and 2 above .910. I know he played on some crap Columbus rosters, but he's been a mid back up as best, and that's being generous

 

[Loach]

Its just for fun so don’t worry about it.

Just assume its a good goalie and much better than the ones we have currently.

Given there’s a lot of talk about our bad goaltending, how much better do you think the Senators will be if they had better goaltending?


The poll didn’t ask for save percentage data.

Just for fun? There's no fun on HF Sens.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Just for fun? There's no fun on HF Sens.

Voting is fun. Haha. LOL.

 

[Answer]

He's had 3 seasons about .900, and 2 above .910. I know he played on some crap Columbus rosters, but he's been a mid back up as best, and that's being generous

He has 3 over 910 (1 is 920) and 1 over 900, playing 8 seasons with Columbus, of all teams. He also played 11 games with Kings where he registered .921

Now I am not saying he worth a long term contract that we signed him for but I can't also blame him for out bad season. I do see he has potential to put up decent numbers or even more than that if playing behind a good defensive Team

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Using this breakdown if we get consistent goaltending above .880 save % we win more than 50% of our games. If we directly apply that to the 28 games where our goaltending was dog water and just go .500 we’d be a 40 win team right now and firmly in the first wildcard spot. I still say we finish just shy of 100 but we’d be in the playoffs for sure.

Not quite because the results obviously improve the higher you go past .880.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Not quite because the results obviously improve the higher you go past .880.

So, how did you vote? 100 - 109, or 110 & above?

 

[starling]

Our goalie trio combined for 36 goals below expected (per moneypuck.com model). We basically start every game 0.5 goal behind the opponent.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Our goalie trio combined for 34 goals below expected (per moneypuck.com model). We basically start every game 0.5 goal behind the opponent.

Yes, we’ve seen many stats about goaltending. So, if we have a better goaltender next year, how much improvement can we expect? Assume the team is as good as we are this year in terms of its composition of players. Our goaltending draws the most attention and ire, so I wonder what people’s expectations are and how much of an improvement folks anticipate with a new tender.

 

[starling]

That separation from the second. 36 vs 13. Damn.

 

[bicboi64]

Man 10-15 goals less against, maybe we're not a playoff team, but we're at least fighting for a wildcard spot in the last quarter of a season which would be more stomachable than whatever we have now

 

[HoweHullOrr]

That separation from the second. 36 vs 13. Damn.

View attachment 837789

I think you are trying to say there’s a big gap when it comes to the 2nd place NJD (with a 13.06 goals against above expected) and the overall worst Senators with a 36.26 goals against above expected.

The poll poses an interesting question. How much better would we be with better goaltending. Nothing more result oriented than standing points. I wonder how many people won’t vote though given that any answer is so black & white and requires conviction.

Man 10-15 goals less against, maybe we're not a playoff team, but we're at least fighting for a wildcard spot in the last quarter of a season which would be more stomachable than whatever we have now

This is where expectations are important and can vary widely. If we barely making the playoffs, and do nothing once in, are we a good team?

 

[Xspyrit]

That separation from the second. 36 vs 13. Damn.

View attachment 837789

Seriously, I think that with normal goaltending, different GMing/coaching from the start and no Kubalik and Hamonic, this team would have been a playoffs team, despite Chabot and Norris injuries and Pinto suspension.

It's crazy because I found goaltending was much better under DJ's mess but turned into sieves once Martin coached the team.

Can you check if that is reflected in expected goals?

 

[bicboi64]

This is where expectations are important and can vary widely. If we barely making the playoffs, and do nothing once in, are we a good team?

I'm aiming low to avoid disappointment. If we started the season off as bad as we did, if we were just in the fight for the playoffs after a coaching change, I'd like to believe I'd take it.

 

[Adrianopolous]

This team is still a 95 point team unless guys make big strides