How many points will the Senators get with a new goalie?

[Micklebot]

Maybe reading GDT posts gives one a jaded impression. It seems like the vast majority of the comments made by numerous people are about the goaltending.

Well, that's because goaltending is pretty clearly the biggest issue, just not the only one.

 

[Big Muddy]

So let's assume average goaltending gets us in the 95-99 pts range for arguments sake.

The question then becomes how many pts increase can we get from:

1. The right HC
2. A top 4 RHD (think DeMelo or Pesce)
3. A vet two way middle six guy to replace Tank
4. Improved bottom pair and 4th line

I don't think any of those changes are unreasonable, and I could see a combination of them contributing say 10 pts in the standings if done right, which puts us in legit contender range.

The challenge is finding the right mix of changes, tweaks if you will, that are able to fit under the cap given we can't magically disappear our current goalies to replace them with an average tandem.

The four things you list would certainly help and should improve the team. I debate #3 a bit more as I’m not sure that is an obvious improvement, but perhaps more of lateral move as Tarasenko played pretty well for us. Having said that, this is more of a tangent.

Ideally we’d do all of those 4 things plus get a better goalie. I’m not sure if there’s anyone who doesn’t want better goaltending and I know I certainly do.

Its hard to know or quantify how many more points a team will get if certain improvements are made. It certainly isn’t an exact science.

I guess I do wonder if those 4 (or 3) things you’ve listed would be enough to make the playoffs. I don’t have a definitive answer, but it might.

I guess it's tempting to at least consider this as we don’t know whether our goaltender situation will evolve & change for the better. To make things even more murky, Bruce said they don’t plan on buying out Korpisalo, and Staois made positive sounding comments about our goaltending situation.

Hopefully we find a way of doing those 4 things plus the goaltender upgrade. That’s what I’m hoping for.

 

[Big Muddy]

Well, that's because goaltending is pretty clearly the biggest issue, just not the only one.

Well, team D was a relatively close 2nd and a pretty big issue as well, although we have seen some improvement in the later part of the season after Jacques Martin became the coach. I think JM was correct when he said you have to learn to play team D if you want to win in the NHL. This and other things didn’t get nearly as much attention though.

Ideally & hopefully we will get a better goaltender plus the other improvements.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

To be fair, we had 99 pts under MacLean, and 98 under Boucher, both those teams had issues with personnel on D beyond Karlsson, and scored less than the current roster (albeit era adjusted the 2015 team under MacLean scores a touch more)

The difference is they came together as a team, and got significantly better goaltending (Anderson was well above average both years).

I think if you add a DeMelo type to this roster in place of Chychrun, and an above average goalie, with a new voice at HC this roster could make some noise and push for 100 pts.

Anderson is absolutely the key there.

Look at the last 4 games alone lol. Solid goaltending. 3 wins. Bad goaltending blow out loss

 

[Wondercarrot]

You're getting stuck on something.

The key is this 3rd paragraph: "What I was referring to was that I thought people were more optimistic about the team. I get the impression that people think the players that we have are by and large pretty good (not all, but most of them), and that the only, big thing that was holding them back was goaltending."

If fans thought the players and hence team was really good and all that was holding them back was goaltending, then I thought there’d be more optimism and votes for the “between 100 to 109” points. Another way of saying the same thing is that I thought more people did think that we were (at least) the 12th best team if we had better (good) goaltending. There was lots of off-season discussion in here & in the media on our potential and how good our players were.

The bolded part of your last sentence is actually what I had anticipated more people thought in here and tends to confirm what I was thinking.

I guess I should probably vote lol

I think this year has just beaten so much optimism out of the fan base here that everyone is gun shy.

 

[bert]

To be fair, we had 99 pts under MacLean, and 98 under Boucher, both those teams had issues with personnel on D beyond Karlsson, and scored less than the current roster (albeit era adjusted the 2015 team under MacLean scores a touch more)

The difference is they came together as a team, and got significantly better goaltending (Anderson was well above average both years).

I think if you add a DeMelo type to this roster in place of Chychrun, and an above average goalie, with a new voice at HC this roster could make some noise and push for 100 pts.

The poll didnt ask if they had 98 or 99 points it asked for 100 points which is alot. They still havent had 100 points since 2007. Its 2024. It was a lofty expectation and to expect those results after missing the playoffs for 7 straight seasons and currently being in last. With just a goalie switch, its not realistic. Its a team game. Yeah the goaltending is horrible but there are many other areas that need to be improved. But that doesnt mean there isnt reason to be optimistic.

If they get new goaltending and 3 new D men and a new coach sure they could push for a playoff spot. But those are massive if's all around. I think there is a large culture problem and with no prospects coming I dont expect a 100 point team any time soon. I think they need a pretty big retool.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Hard to answer
Are they getting one of the best goalies or one of the worst available.

 

[K1900L]

92

 

[bert]

Maybe reading GDT posts gives one a jaded impression. It seems like the vast majority of the comments made by numerous people are about the goaltending.

They arent wrong, but there its lots more wrong than just goaltending. Losing culture is the hardest thing to shake. A great goalie would go a long way but i dont see any available or any that this team can actually fit in given what they have commited to the worst tandem in years.

 

[Big Muddy]

I guess I should probably vote lol

I think this year has just beaten so much optimism out of the fan base here that everyone is gun shy.

Yep, I agree with that. I find that I have this internal debate with myself on how good this team is. On one hand, we have some good young players. But on the other hand, the standings show us that there still is a sizable gap between us and the good teams. Its hard to know what to think.

I think there could have been a lower point option in this poll something like 95/94 points or less. It would have been more interesting to see how people vote if that option had been available. 100 points is too high as the lowest option.

 

[Micklebot]

The poll didnt ask if they had 98 or 99 points it asked for 100 points which is alot. They still havent had 100 points since 2007. Its 2024. It was a lofty expectation and to expect those results after missing the playoffs for 7 straight seasons and currently being in last. With just a goalie switch, its not realistic. Its a team game. Yeah the goaltending is horrible but there are many other areas that need to be improved. But that doesnt mean there isnt reason to be optimistic.

If they get new goaltending and 3 new D men and a new coach sure they could push for a playoff spot. But those are massive if's all around. I think there is a large culture problem and with no prospects coming I dont expect a 100 point team any time soon. I think they need a pretty big retool.

I guess the point I was trying to make is small changes can make bigg differences.

We went from 88 pts one yr, to 99 the next, then back to 85, then 98 a yr after that.

NJD had 63 pts two years ago, up to 112 last year, and are pacing at 82 this yr.

VGK had 94 pts two yrs ago, 111 and won the cup last year, and are pacing at 96 this year

The league is all about parity, health and goaltending are often the two biggest factors in how a team performs.

 

[UglyPuckling]

The poll didnt ask if they had 98 or 99 points it asked for 100 points which is alot. They still havent had 100 points since 2007. Its 2024. It was a lofty expectation and to expect those results after missing the playoffs for 7 straight seasons and currently being in last.

Yep, I agree with that. I find that I have this internal debate with myself on how good this team is. On one hand, we have some good young players. But on the other hand, the standings show us that there still is a sizable gap between us and the good teams. Its hard to know what to think.

I think there could have been a lower point option in this poll something like 95/94 points or less. It would have been more interesting to see how people vote if that option had been available. 100 points is too high as the lowest option.

Yes, in retrospect, I agree.

There should have been another option with lower points. Something like 94 points or less would have been good.

My bad. I did mention this point yesterday as well.

Hard to answer
Are they getting one of the best goalies or one of the worst available.

The OP said: "Assume it's at least an average to above average goalie but not a Hasek/Roy/Brodeur/Hellebuyck level goalie”.

 

[bert]

I guess the point I was trying to make is small changes can make bigg differences.

We went from 88 pts one yr, to 99 the next, then back to 85, then 98 a yr after that.

NJD had 63 pts two years ago, up to 112 last year, and are pacing at 82 this yr.

VGK had 94 pts two yrs ago, 111 and won the cup last year, and are pacing at 96 this year

The league is all about parity, health and goaltending are often the two biggest factors in how a team performs.

VGK has a winning culture these situations are polar opposites. Those sens teams were also way closer than this one. I am not saying they wont improve but suggesting a jump to 100 points due to simply goaltending isnt being realistic. Its about as realistic as Dorion was being trading top 10 picks when they are a lottery team. This wont be a quick fix here, anyone expecting one is going to be disappointed and it wont be sustainable. The core is very young the team is getting a really good prospect this year, this needs to be a methodical approach. Small market teams dont just get good from a few free agency signings or trades the only way these types of markets have success in this league is by being frugal and building from within.

 

[Xspyrit]

Only 3 voters out of 32 have the right answer so far...

One of the big problems was coaching. Sure we have interim coaching but even then were partially capable of fixing many issues in a few weeks.

After January 13th :

14-11-4 (0.552 P%, 17th)
CF% : 52.50 (7th)
SF% : 53.49 (5th)
GF% : 47.28 (22nd)
xGF% : 55.45 (3rd)
xGF/60 : 3.30 (6th)
xGA/60 : 2.65 (2nd)
SV% : 88.16 (30th)

xGA/60 was 3.14 before January 13th...

Imagine that team with 0.910 SV%

Even better once you get rid/trade of Korpisalo/Forsberg, Hamonic, Kubalik, Chychrun and bring in some relentless/physical players

 

[Micklebot]

VGK has a winning culture these situations are polar opposites. Those sens teams were also way closer than this one. I am not saying they wont improve but suggesting a jump to 100 points due to simply goaltending isnt being realistic. Its about as realistic as Dorion was being trading top 10 picks when they are a lottery team. This wont be a quick fix here, anyone expecting one is going to be disappointed and it wont be sustainable. The core is very young the team is getting a really good prospect this year, this needs to be a methodical approach. Small market teams dont just get good from a few free agency signings or trades the only way these types of markets have success in this league is by being frugal and building from within.

NJD 63 pts were way closer than our 60 in 66 games?

The chart I posted above suggests our goaltending has cost us about 35 goals from expected, that's essentially what average goaltending should have gotten us and takes into account shot quality.. What if we got the kind of goaltending Anderson was giving us, in 2017 he had an GSAx of +10, so a 45 goal swing, what if we got the goaltending STL is getting based on that chart, a +27, adding to a 62 goals against swing?

We had 86 pts just last year and ostensibly improved the roster but goaltending got significantly worse. The team is clearly suffering from lack of confidence in the net, give them someone they can believe in and the results will improve in a hurry.

The reality of this league is the middle of the pack is extremely volatile, big swings happen every year because of a combination of parity, Heath and goaltending.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

You could look at the advanced standings, or look at the standings. The juxtaposition of the two (advanced stats and the traditional point system) is interesting.

Bruins are 1st in the Eastern Conference, and the Canes are 4th. The advances stats could suggest that we are good. But, we got clobbered by those 2 teams in our most recent games. Maybe it isn’t that complicated & that a quick glance at the standings reveals a lot. The NHL tradition of determining who the best team is based on the team that has scored the most goals in a game seems to be valid & solid.

And, hockey is a team game. All of the players contribute to the team's success. Whether it's scoring more goals, or preventing the other team from scoring goals, all of the players on the ice play a role. The teams that get superior contributions from all of its players, that pull the rope together, that know & execute their responsibilities, those are the teams that always seem to do better. It doesn’t look like our team is ready or capable yet of being one of the more successful teams in the league. I seem to have used the word team a lot.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Only 3 voters out of 32 have the right answer so far...

One of the big problems was coaching. Sure we have interim coaching but even then were partially capable of fixing many issues in a few weeks.

After January 13th :

14-11-4 (0.552 P%, 17th)
CF% : 52.50 (7th)
SF% : 53.49 (5th)
GF% : 47.28 (22nd)
xGF% : 55.45 (3rd)
xGF/60 : 3.30 (6th)
xGA/60 : 2.65 (2nd)
SV% : 88.16 (30th)

xGA/60 was 3.14 before January 13th...

Imagine that team with 0.910 SV%

Even better once you get rid/trade of Korpisalo/Forsberg, Hamonic, Kubalik, Chychrun and bring in some relentless/physical players

Why would you leave out Dec. 18-Jan. 13 when Martin was the coach?

We're 41 games into his coaching tenure this season and the results are virtually the same as they were under DJ. We've figured out one thing this year: it was definitely not a coaching problem that this team had. I don't know why you keep trying to finesse the numbers to present this cherry-picked argument.

 

[BondraTime]

Thinking this team would get 110+ is absurd

Over 100 is wild in and of itself, but at least has a slight possibility

 

[Micklebot]

Thinking this team would get 110+ is absurd

Over 100 is wild in and of itself, but at least has a slight possibility

Agreed, given the parameters of the question (only goalie change) 100 pts is a high benchmark to hit. Possible with the right goalie I think, but you'd still need to get some good fortune coming your way.

110 though? only 11 different teams have hit 110 pts in the previous 5 seasons, and it's only happened 14 times. So are we a top 3 team in the league with better goaltending, I think the answer to that is pretty straight forward regardless of who we have in net.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Goaltending and coaching are the biggest needs, and can have cascading effects on all other issues with the team.

A more balanced and physically tougher D and bottom 6 would be nice, but some of that can come from confidence and coaching.

Its hard to play a hard physical game when you are completely out of the playoffs, unless an in game situation fires you up.

Coaching and goaltending are the biggest needs this off season. Trading Chych for a solution on in the top 4 RD position is a tier down third.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Why would you leave out Dec. 18-Jan. 13 when Martin was the coach?

We're 41 games into his coaching tenure this season and the results are virtually the same as they were under DJ. We've figured out one thing this year: it was definitely not a coaching problem that this team had. I don't know why you keep trying to finesse the numbers to present this cherry-picked argument.

I don't think them getting similar records necessarily brings us to the definitive conclusion that coaching was not also an issue. Maybe Jacques wasn't able to get the desired results either, but I personally don't see how it puts to rest the idea that coaching potentially wasn't up to snuff previously. It does seem clear it was not the only problem and maybe the other problems were too big to overcome.

 

[BankStreetParade]

I don't think them getting similar records necessarily brings us to the definitive conclusion that coaching was not also an issue. Maybe Jacques wasn't able to get the desired results either, but I personally don't see how it puts to rest the idea that coaching potentially wasn't up to snuff previously. It does seem clear it was not the only problem and maybe the other problems were too big to overcome.

I don't see how there's really any other conclusion to draw. We're 41 games into Martin coaching this team - a good amount of time to evaluate - and we're right around the same record. Some things are a little bit better, some things are a little bit worse. Generally speaking, mostly the same.

This is not an exoneration of DJ. I've said since the beginning of this season that this team had confidence problems and a new voice in the locker room, early on in the season, was the potential recipe to turn things around. But there's just no way to look at what's happened and to continue hearing people say that the biggest problem this team had was coaching. If that's the conclusion people are still drawing, then the guy that replaced him with nearly identical results would logically also currently be the biggest problem.

 

[Micklebot]

Mike Kelly was on TSN1200 this morning talking about the Blues and Sens,

Basically said that if you looked at the two teams and stripped away the names and records, asked which team was the better team based on the numbers, it would be Ottawa every time (he's a Sportlogiq guy, so likely on the merit of all that proprietary analytic stuff). Says Billington has quietly put in a top 5 goalie performance this season. StL is on pace for 90 pts, with an xGF% all situation of 46.06% (28th in the league), Ottawa is 8th in the league in all situation xGF% this year at 52.29%. Sportlogiq has it's own version of this stuff that's more sophisticated, not sure where they'd rank on that.

So, a bit of a simplistic way of thinking about it, but based on that, top tier goaltending can take a "bottom 5 team", and turn them into a bubble team, while bottom of the barrel goaltending can take a "top 10 team" and turn them int to a bottom 5 team.

 

[Micklebot]

I don't see how there's really any other conclusion to draw. We're 41 games into Martin coaching this team - a good amount of time to evaluate - and we're right around the same record. Some things are a little bit better, some things are a little bit worse. Generally speaking, mostly the same.

This is not an exoneration of DJ. I've said since the beginning of this season that this team had confidence problems and a new voice in the locker room, early on in the season, was the potential recipe to turn things around. But there's just no way to look at what's happened and to continue hearing people say that the biggest problem this team had was coaching. If that's the conclusion people are still drawing, then the guy that replaced him with nearly identical results would logically also currently be the biggest problem.

There are some issues comparing coaching,

DJ coached at a time when the team was legitimately in the race, and games mattered, while Martin came in when the season was "done" and saw players get traded off at the deadline. It's a lot harder to stay motivated in the later situation, imo.

While I do think there were longstanding issues that DJ was not able to address, he takes far more heat than deserved. He's not by any means a top end coach, there are better candidates out there and I've been a proponent of moving on from him since before the start of last season, but the claims of no system and terrible coach are really just scapegoating when expectations aren't met.

That said, I do think there have been signigicant igns of improvment uder Jacques after a slow start. Our underlying numbers have all improved in the last 30 games (even with those last two outings...). The one thing that hasn't improved is team sv%.


these are 5v5 numbers from 12 Jan to present, CF, CA, CF%, FF, FA, FF%, xGF, xGA, xGF%, SCF, SCA, SCF%, HDCF, HDCA, and HDCF% are all top 10 in the league for that period. Sv% is 2nd last, and sh% is 7th last.

Coach​

GP​

TOI​

W​

L​

OTL​

ROW​

Points​

Point %​

CF​

CA​

CF%​

GF​

GA​

GF%​

xGF​

xGA​

xGF%​

SCF​

SCA​

SCF%​

HDCF​

HDCA​

HDCF%​

SH%​

SV%​

Jacques Martin​

30​

1833.13​

14​

12​

4​

12​

32​

0.533​

64.83​

58.49​

52.57​

2.91​

3.37​

46.35​

3.31​

2.66​

55.43​

31.25​

26.47​

54.14​

12.79​

10.34​

55.3​

9.15​

87.81​

 

[bert]

Only 3 voters out of 32 have the right answer so far...

One of the big problems was coaching. Sure we have interim coaching but even then were partially capable of fixing many issues in a few weeks.

After January 13th :

14-11-4 (0.552 P%, 17th)
CF% : 52.50 (7th)
SF% : 53.49 (5th)
GF% : 47.28 (22nd)
xGF% : 55.45 (3rd)
xGF/60 : 3.30 (6th)
xGA/60 : 2.65 (2nd)
SV% : 88.16 (30th)

xGA/60 was 3.14 before January 13th...

Imagine that team with 0.910 SV%

Even better once you get rid/trade of Korpisalo/Forsberg, Hamonic, Kubalik, Chychrun and bring in some relentless/physical players

Imagine watching this team and thinking goaltending is the only issue. It's clearly a problem I am by no means exonerating ot. But theres alot more going wrong.

Advanced stats are a nice tool but absolutely not how to evaluate a team and should never be the number 1 metric. 2 GM's have used it as a primary tool and have failed absolutely miserably. Chayka and Dubas. Dubas was even gifted generational talent and still managed to blow it by having no clue how to build a team that can win.

This isn't baseball. It's the opposite, hockey is the ultimate team sport. It's not individual based. There are metrics that are unmeasurable. Physicality, sacrifice and cohesion. This team is so weak in these areas. They also rarely consistently bring the same effort nightly. They don't do what it takes on the defensive side of the puck to win. They simply are not willing or able to make the sacrifices it takes to win in this league. The D core is incredibly flawed. Small, soft, easy to play against. Other teams forwards lick their chops when they see Ottawa on the schedule. They know it's going to be an easy night.