How many points to make West playoffs 2013/2014?

[enarwpg]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Central/Winnipeg.html

To reach the elusive 93 points, and having only a 77% chance of making the playoffs, the Jets need to win 10 of their remaining 11 games.

Possible? Absolutely
Probable? NO

 

[CaptainChef]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Western/Central/Winnipeg.html

To reach the elusive 93 points, and having only a 77% chance of making the playoffs, the Jets need to win 10 of their remaining 11 games.

Possible? Absolutely
Probable? NO

Given the caliber of teams we have left, chances of winning even 9 of 11 (which wouldn't even give us a 50/50 chance) is somewhere between slim and none. I'm still cheering for a top 6 draft pick.

 

[Derfel*]

They will need 92 points. That is within reach.

 

[KingBogo]

Given the caliber of teams we have left, chances of winning even 9 of 11 (which wouldn't even give us a 50/50 chance) is somewhere between slim and none. I'm still cheering for a top 6 draft pick.

I guess to each there own. I just can't bring myself to cheer for a draft order when we got an actual team in front of us fighting to find a way to make it to the playoffs. Is it a long shot, sure but at least its a shot. Last night's game was a blast to be at. A bit sloppy at times but they kept fighting.

Besides it is far from a guarantee a 6th overall pick will end up being better then a 10-14 pick if they end up giving it a run but come up short. You just need to go back 2 years to the 2012 draft to see a pretty drastic turnover of draft position if a re-draft was to happen today. Drafting 18 yo is a crap-shot at best.

 

[ps241]

I guess to each there own. I just can't bring myself to cheer for a draft order when we got an actual team in front of us fighting to find a way to make it to the playoffs. Is it a long shot, sure but at least its a shot. Last night's game was a blast to be at. A bit sloppy at times but they kept fighting.

Besides it is far from a guarantee a 6th overall pick will end up being better then a 10-14 pick if they end up giving it a run but come up short. You just need to go back 2 years to the 2012 draft to see a pretty drastic turnover of draft position if a re-draft was to happen today. Drafting 18 yo is a crap-shot at best.

I agree with your statement on balance but I have no problem separating my emotions for wanting to win every game, cheering for the boys hard while being comfortable with the fact we won't make the playoffs this season and hoping for a higher quality pick. I believe with our talent in drafting the higher we pick the better chance we have to get the higher BPA on "TNSE's" list. I want to win every night but I also want a better quality pick so I am torn and celebrate the positives in either outcome.

 

[wpgsilver]

AFAIC every game is a win-win.
If we win, we win.
If we lose, our draft position improves.

Win-win.

 

[KingBogo]

I agree with your statement on balance but I have no problem separating my emotions for wanting to win every game, cheering for the boys hard while being comfortable with the fact we won't make the playoffs this season and hoping for a higher quality pick. I believe with our talent in drafting the higher we pick the better chance we have to get the higher BPA on "TNSE's" list. I want to win every night but I also want a better quality pick so I am torn and celebrate the positives in either outcome.

I totally understand come draft day we love picking as early as possible, but after approx the first 3-5 picks its a real crap-shoot picking 18 yo kids. It would be like the NFL picking high school seniors instead of college seniors/juniors. Who in the hell actually knows. If you you look at the historical draft lists picks 6-25 might as well been randomly picked for the likelihood of getting an impact player.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/draft/

 

[boanst]

Wow so many 1st overalls from the 70s that I've never heard of.
That stretch of 92-96 was pretty craptastic too.

 

[knorthern knight]

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr | Max |
CENTRAL
St Louis|71|103|1.451|119|125
Chicago|72|97|1.347|110|117
Colorado|71|94|1.324|109|116
PACIFIC
Anaheim|71|99|1.394|114|121
San Jose|73|101|1.384|113|119
Los Angeles|72|88|1.222|100|108
WILD CARD |||||| GBW
Minnesota|72|85|1.181|97|105|-2.5
Dallas|71|79|1.113|91|101|0
Phoenix|72|80|1.111|91|100|0
Vancouver|73|76|1.041|85|94|2.5
Nashville|72|72|1|82|92|4
Winnipeg|73|73|1|82|91|4
Calgary|72|67|0.931|76|87|6.5
Edmonton|72|59|0.819|67|79|10.5

Well, this is the semi-official end of the season. If the Jets win all 9 remaining games, they'll have averaged 1.10976 points per game. Meanwhile Minnesota is currently averaging 1.18056 and Dallas 1.11268 and Phoenix 1.11111.

 

[KingBogo]

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr | Max |
CENTRAL
St Louis|71|103|1.451|119|125
Chicago|72|97|1.347|110|117
Colorado|71|94|1.324|109|116
PACIFIC
Anaheim|71|99|1.394|114|121
San Jose|73|101|1.384|113|119
Los Angeles|72|88|1.222|100|108
WILD CARD |||||| GBW
Minnesota|72|85|1.181|97|105|-2.5
Dallas|71|79|1.113|91|101|0
Phoenix|72|80|1.111|91|100|0
Vancouver|73|76|1.041|85|94|2.5
Nashville|72|72|1|82|92|4
Winnipeg|73|73|1|82|91|4
Calgary|72|67|0.931|76|87|6.5
Edmonton|72|59|0.819|67|79|10.5

Well, this is the semi-official end of the season. If the Jets win all 9 remaining games, they'll have averaged 1.10976 points per game. Meanwhile Minnesota is currently averaging 1.18056 and Dallas 1.11268 and Phoenix 1.11111.

I think we are at the point where we are more likely to be caught be the Flames.

 

[Derfel*]

We will catch Dallas. Unfortunately, Vancouver will get the last spot. Watch.

 

[Tarks]

We will catch Dallas. Unfortunately, Vancouver will get the last spot. Watch.

Neither are happening.

 

[knorthern knight]

We will catch Dallas. Unfortunately, Vancouver will get the last spot. Watch.

Neither are happening.

Minnesota and Phoenix are in the catbird seat for the wildcard spots. Catching Dallas and Vancouver is not enough. For all intents and purposes, Winnipeg is eliminated. The "tragic number" versus the Coyotes is 4. If Winnipeg loses their next 3 games, including a 4-pointer at Phoenix, it becomes official. We can at least say that we lasted into April before being officially eliminated. Shades of 2011-2012 http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20112012&type=CON&date=04/01/2012

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr | Max |
CENTRAL
St Louis|73|107|1.466|120|125
Colorado|73|98|1.342|110|116
Chicago|75|99|1.32|108|113
PACIFIC
Anaheim|73|102|1.397|115|120
San Jose|75|103|1.373|113|117
Los Angeles|74|92|1.243|102|108
WILD CARD |||||| GBW
Minnesota|74|85|1.149|94|101|-0.5
Phoenix|74|84|1.135|93|100|0
Dallas|73|81|1.11|91|99|1
Vancouver|75|79|1.053|86|93|3
Winnipeg|74|75|1.014|83|91|4.5
Nashville|75|75|1|82|89|5
Calgary|74|69|0.932|76|85|7.5
Edmonton|74|61|0.824|68|77|11.5

 

[knorthern knight]

Results after Monday March 31. We can officially no longer catch Minnesota for a wild card spot. Our "tragic number" against Phoenix is 2.5. Any combination of Phoenix wins and/or Winnipeg losses totalling 2.5 officially eliminates us. On the futility sweepstakes...

• Buffalo can get 65 points by winning all its remaining games
• Edmonton can get 75 points by winning all its remaining games
• Florida can get 74 points by winning all its remaining games

Tonight's loser point gives us 76, so we can't get better than 4th position, and we're currently on track for #6.

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr | Max |
CENTRAL
St Louis|74|107|1.446|119|123
Colorado|74|100|1.351|111|116
Chicago|76|99|1.303|107|111
PACIFIC
Anaheim|75|106|1.413|116|120
San Jose|76|103|1.355|111|115
Los Angeles|76|94|1.237|101|106
WILD CARD |||||| GBW
Minnesota|76|89|1.171|96|101|-2
Dallas|74|83|1.122|92|99|0
Phoenix|75|84|1.12|92|98|0
Vancouver|76|79|1.039|85|91|3
Nashville|76|77|1.013|83|89|4
Winnipeg|76|76|1|82|88|4.5
Calgary|75|69|0.92|75|83|7.5
Edmonton|75|61|0.813|67|75|11.5

 

[knorthern knight]

OK, we're officially eliminated on April 3rd, 2014. The maximum we can get by winning out is 86 points. Dallas and Phoenix currently both have 85. They play each other on the 13th. One of them must get 2 points out of that game, for at least 87. Minnesota has 90, so we can't catch them.

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr | Max |
CENTRAL
St Louis|76|111|1.461|120|123
Colorado|75|102|1.36|112|116
Chicago|77|101|1.312|108|111
PACIFIC
Anaheim|76|108|1.421|117|120
San Jose|77|105|1.364|112|115
Los Angeles|77|96|1.247|102|106
WILD CARD |||||| GBW
Minnesota|77|90|1.169|96|100|-2
Dallas|76|85|1.118|92|97|0
Phoenix|77|85|1.104|91|95|0.5
Vancouver|77|79|1.026|84|89|3.5
Nashville|76|77|1.013|83|89|4
Winnipeg|78|78|1|82|86|4.5
Calgary|77|71|0.922|76|81|7.5
Edmonton|77|61|0.792|65|71|12.5

 

[pegjets]

Just taking a look at the numbers here, the playoff number we needed ended up being 92 points (Dallas ended up with 91).. a far cry from the 100 points that we predicted in November. As always, things normalize after enough games are played. This ended up being a low to average cutoff for the playoff line.

Based on the poll, only 11% of us got it right. I think people underestimated the number of in-division games towards the stretch, which meant that points were being traded between playoff contenders and it kept the overall point accumulation relatively low.

The greatest amount of points the Jets were projected to end with was around 87 points (in early March, prior to the Olympic break). For most of the season, the Jets were projected to end with 77-85 points, and finally ended up with 84.

At no point in the season, except for maybe after the first 2-3 games were the Jets ever on course to make the playoffs based on trending performance. The performance was pretty consistent to be in the lower end of the 3rd quartile to upper end of the 4th quartile.

 

[Tarks]

Just taking a look at the numbers here, the playoff number we needed ended up being 92 points (Dallas ended up with 91).. a far cry from the 100 points that we predicted in November. As always, things normalize after enough games are played. This ended up being a low to average cutoff for the playoff line.

Based on the poll, only 11% of us got it right. I think people underestimated the number of in-division games towards the stretch, which meant that points were being traded between playoff contenders and it kept the overall point accumulation relatively low.

The greatest amount of points the Jets were projected to end with was around 87 points (in early March, prior to the Olympic break). For most of the season, the Jets were projected to end with 77-85 points, and finally ended up with 84.

At no point in the season, except for maybe after the first 2-3 games were the Jets ever on course to make the playoffs based on trending performance. The performance was pretty consistent to be in the lower end of the 3rd quartile to upper end of the 4th quartile.

Meh.

Dallas stumbled to the finish line or they would have finished in the 95-99 point range. They lost 4 of their last 7 games to Carolina, Florida, Columbus and Phoenix. All in regulation.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

6 in 5 would have done it.

The pace early in the season has never been sustained in the past. The likelihood that there was going to be 'regression' was pretty high. In any event, I enjoyed following your thread knorthern - some good number crunching, and some eye opening trends early on. Reminds me that I should put the final numbers up for the 6 in 5 stuff - the graph looks pretty ugly at the end. They touched the line, then diverged sharply as they went into their losing skid.

 

[pegjets]

Meh.

Dallas stumbled to the finish line or they would have finished in the 95-99 point range. They lost 4 of their last 7 games to Carolina, Florida, Columbus and Phoenix. All in regulation.

They also went on a tear for 7-8 games before that - these things tend to even out in the end. As Maurice side, you're only as good as your record. Technically, if the Jets had beat Dallas in RT again, then the playoff line could have been 90 points (we can come up with an unlimited # of could have scenarios).

 

[KingBogo]

Just taking a look at the numbers here, the playoff number we needed ended up being 92 points (Dallas ended up with 91).. a far cry from the 100 points that we predicted in November. As always, things normalize after enough games are played. This ended up being a low to average cutoff for the playoff line.

Based on the poll, only 11% of us got it right. I think people underestimated the number of in-division games towards the stretch, which meant that points were being traded between playoff contenders and it kept the overall point accumulation relatively low.

The greatest amount of points the Jets were projected to end with was around 87 points (in early March, prior to the Olympic break). For most of the season, the Jets were projected to end with 77-85 points, and finally ended up with 84.

At no point in the season, except for maybe after the first 2-3 games were the Jets ever on course to make the playoffs based on trending performance. The performance was pretty consistent to be in the lower end of the 3rd quartile to upper end of the 4th quartile.

That's us

 

[knorthern knight]

Under the heading of woulda/coulda/shoulda; if 3 games had turned out differently, we'd be in the playoffs. We lost 3 games in regulation to Dallas http://jets.nhl.com/club/teamvsteamdetails.htm?season=20132014&team=DAL If we convert...

• one of those regulation losses to a regulation victory
• and any other 2 regulation losses to ANY team into victories (even OT or SO)
• we end up with 90 points
• Dallas and Phoenix end up with 89

 

[wpgsilver]

We will catch Dallas. Unfortunately, Vancouver will get the last spot. Watch.

This does not make me feel good about your prediction skillz.