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How many points to make West playoffs 2013/2014?

knorthern knight

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
4,120
0
GTA
Results including games played on Wednesday, Dec 11. I use points-per-game to sort, so games-in-hand can cause teams with fewer points to be ranked higher.

We need "only" 11 consecutive wins to beat Vancouver's+Minnesota's Points-Per-Game to get a wildcard spot. If the Central Division standings look weird, remember that Colorado has 4 games-in-hand on Minnesota, and and Phoenix has 3. Vancouver+Minnesota have same points and games played. Vancouver, with the help of a 5 game win streak, gets the edge with higher ROW. Here are the numbers...

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr CENTRAL
Chicago|34|51|1.5|123
St Louis|29|43|1.483|122
Colorado|29|40|1.379|113
PACIFIC
Los Angeles|32|46|1.438|118
Anaheim|34|49|1.441|118
San Jose|31|44|1.419|116
WILD CARD
Phoenix|30|39|1.3|107
Vancouver|33|41|1.242|102
Minnesota|33|41|1.242|102
Dallas|29|33|1.138|93
Winnipeg|32|32|1|82
Nashville|31|31|1|82
Calgary|30|26|0.867|71

And here is the wild card battle in baseball format.

Team | GBW | Comments
Phoenix|----|107 pts
Vancouver|----|102 pts; Beats Minnesota on ROW
Minnesota|----|102 pts
Dallas|2.0
Winnipeg|4.0
Nashville|4.0
Calgary|6.0
Edmonton|7.5
 
GJF

GJF

Beaver Jedi
Sep 26, 2011
8,813
2,497
Heidelberg, GER
knorthern knight said:
We need "only" 11 consecutive wins to beat Vancouver's+Minnesota's Points-Per-Game to get a wildcard spot. If the Central Division standings look weird, remember that Colorado has 4 games-in-hand on Minnesota, and and Phoenix has 3. Vancouver+Minnesota have same points and games played. Vancouver, with the help of a 5 game win streak, gets the edge with higher ROW. Here are the numbers...
Click to expand...

fc2fca5cc8833d35c92822a6af386914480a4e7c2411a6329d9742eb6bc89110.jpg
 

knorthern knight

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
4,120
0
GTA
Results including games played on Wednesday, Dec 18. I use points-per-game to sort, so games-in-hand can cause teams with fewer points to be ranked higher.

We need 14 consecutive wins to beat Minnesota's Points-Per-Game to get a wildcard spot. I really doubt that happens. Barring an improbable Jets winning streak, this will probably be my last post in this thread. Here are the numbers...

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr CENTRAL
Chicago|37|55|1.486|122
St Louis|33|48|1.455|119
Colorado|33|45|1.364|112
PACIFIC
Anaheim|36|53|1.472|121
Los Angeles|35|50|1.429|117
San Jose|34|48|1.412|116
WILD CARD
Vancouver|36|46|1.278|105
Minnesota|36|45|1.25|103
Phoenix|33|41|1.242|102
Dallas|33|37|1.121|92
Nashville|34|35|1.029|84
Winnipeg|36|35|0.972|80
Calgary|34|31|0.912|75
Edmonton|36|25|0.694|57

And here is the wild card battle in baseball format.

Team | GBW | Comments
Vancouver|------
Minnesota|------
Phoenix|0.5
Dallas|2.5
Nashville|4
Winnipeg|5
Calgary|6
Edmonton|9
 
pegjets

pegjets

Oh Canada
Apr 4, 2013
977
4
Points|11/4/2013|11/12/2013|11/20/2013|12/9/2013|1/14/2014
105|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%
104|99.9%|100%|100%|100%|100%
103|99.9%|99.8%|99.5%|99.3%|100%
102|99.9%|99.5%|98.6%|97.7%|99.9%
101|99.6%|98.6%|96.8%|95.1%|99.6%
100|98.9%|96.6%|93.1%|90.0%|98.9%
99|97.3%|93.2%|86.5%|81.5%|97.3%
98|94.0%|87.1%|77.0%|70.2%|94.3%
97|88.2%|78.8%|65.0%|57.3%|89.3%
96|79.4%|67.5%|51.1%|43.4%|81.9%

Updated the point line as of today. As you can see, after more games things normalize a little more. It is almost certain at this point that the playoff line is not going to be 100 points. Right now if a team reaches 97 points, they will have a 9 in 10 chance of making the playoffs.

If I had to take a guess at this point, I think the playoff line is going to be either 96 or 97 points. In Jets terms, we have 45 points right now with 34 games remaining. To actually the playoffs, and if the playoff line is 97 points, then we would need the following type of record to get there for the remaining games:

34-0-0
31-0-3
31-1-2
31-2-1
30-2-2
29-2-3
29-3-2
28-3-3
27-3-4
27-4-3
26-4-4
26-5-3
25-5-4
25-6-3
24-6-4

We would need a lot of :help: getting there :P
 
meedle

meedle

Registered User
May 17, 2011
4,985
91
Winnipeg
puck stoppa said:
actually its 24. and why not!
Click to expand...

Because they haven't proven in 3 years to be able to play defensive hockey nor put streaks together for long periods of time. Just based on goaltending alone they will lose 10 games, nevermind bad bounces and other crap like that.
 
puck stoppa

puck stoppa

Registered User
Jul 5, 2011
12,916
6,525
Winnipeg
meedle said:
Because they haven't proven in 3 years to be able to play defensive hockey nor put streaks together for long periods of time. Just based on goaltending alone they will lose 10 games, nevermind bad bounces and other crap like that.
Click to expand...

Debbie downer, I was kidding around but can't a guy be optimistic for one day.
 
DarthMonty

DarthMonty

F*** CANCER
Aug 21, 2011
3,112
335
Optimismville
They're going 35-0 under the new coach.

I kid, I kid.

The possibility exists that the Jets could somehow sneak into the last wildcard spot, but the probability is laughably low. 1%, maybe?

And I'm an optimist. The reality is that the playoffs became a pipe dream after the 5 game losing streak.
 
pegjets

pegjets

Oh Canada
Apr 4, 2013
977
4
Since it's a slow day at work... here is the full list of potential combinations that will get us to between 94-99 points from the last 34 games.

94 points is still possible at this point as the wildcard spot number (but a less than 50% chance at the moment). I capped the combinations to 99 points as, even though this whole post is unrealistic, us reaching 100 points isn't going to happen.

Wins|Losses|SO/OT|Points Gained|Total End of Season Points
15|0|19|49|94
16|1|17|49|94
17|2|15|49|94
18|3|13|49|94
19|4|11|49|94
20|5|9|49|94
21|6|7|49|94
22|7|5|49|94
23|8|3|49|94
24|9|1|49|94
16|0|18|50|95
17|1|16|50|95
18|2|14|50|95
19|3|12|50|95
20|4|10|50|95
21|5|8|50|95
22|6|6|50|95
23|7|4|50|95
24|8|2|50|95
25|9|0|50|95
17|0|17|51|96
18|1|15|51|96
19|2|13|51|96
20|3|11|51|96
21|4|9|51|96
22|5|7|51|96
23|6|5|51|96
24|7|3|51|96
25|8|1|51|96
18|0|16|52|97
19|1|14|52|97
20|2|12|52|97
21|3|10|52|97
22|4|8|52|97
23|5|6|52|97
24|6|4|52|97
25|7|2|52|97
26|8|0|52|97
19|0|15|53|98
20|1|13|53|98
21|2|11|53|98
22|3|9|53|98
23|4|7|53|98
24|5|5|53|98
25|6|3|53|98
26|7|1|53|98
20|0|14|54|99
21|1|12|54|99
22|2|10|54|99
23|3|8|54|99
24|4|6|54|99
25|5|4|54|99
26|6|2|54|99
27|7|0|54|99
 

knorthern knight

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
4,120
0
GTA
Must... resist... temptation.. to... post... Maurice's hiring has filled me with optimism... either that, or I've given up on giving up :help:. Here goes again, after last night's improbable (under Noel) victory. Results including games played on Monday, Jan 13. I use points-per-game to sort, so games-in-hand can cause teams with fewer points to be ranked higher.

We need 12 consecutive wins to beat Minnesota's Points-Per-Game to get a wildcard spot. I really doubt that happens. Here are the numbers...

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr CENTRAL
St Louis|44|67|1.523|125
Chicago|48|70|1.458|120
Colorado|45|61|1.356|111
PACIFIC
Anaheim|48|75|1.563|128
San Jose|46|62|1.348|111
Los Angeles|47|61|1.298|106
WILD CARD
Vancouver|47|57|1.213|99
Minnesota|48|55|1.146|94
Phoenix|45|51|1.133|93
Dallas|45|47|1.044|86
Nashville|47|45|0.957|79
Winnipeg|48|45|0.938|77
Calgary|46|38|0.826|68
Edmonton|48|35|0.729|60

And here is the wild card battle in baseball format; games behind Minnesota. The "standings" for Minnesota/Phoenix/Dallas/Nashville/Winnipeg are eerily similar to my December 18th post.

Team | GBW | Comments
Vancouver|------
Minnesota|------
Phoenix|0.5
Dallas|2.5
Nashville|4.5
Winnipeg|5
Calgary|7.5
Edmonton|10
 
pegjets

pegjets

Oh Canada
Apr 4, 2013
977
4
Points|11/4/2013|11/12/2013|11/20/2013|12/9/2013|1/14/2014|1/22/14
105|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%
104|99.9%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%
103|99.9%|99.8%|99.5%|99.3%|100%|100%
102|99.9%|99.5%|98.6%|97.7%|99.9%|100%
101|99.6%|98.6%|96.8%|95.1%|99.6%|100%
100|98.9%|96.6%|93.1%|90.0%|98.9%|99.8%
99|97.3%|93.2%|86.5%|81.5%|97.3%|99.0%
98|94.0%|87.1%|77.0%|70.2%|94.3%|97.6%
97|88.2%|78.8%|65.0%|57.3%|89.3%|95.2%
96|79.4%|67.5%|51.1%|43.4%|81.9%|90.0%
95|--|--|--|--|--|83.0%
94|--|--|--|--|--|72.3%
93|--|--|--|--|--|60.2%
92|--|--|--|--|--|46.7%
91|--|--|--|--|--|33.5%

Poor performance by the west against the east means that the potential playoff line continues to drop for the wildcard spot. Right now it is looking like 94 points is likely.

For the Jets, we still need to put this in perspective - to get to 94 points, we are looking at a record of something like 20-8-3 to get there. Essentially we need to win 3 out of every 4 for the entire end of the season... still not very probable but the 4 game winning streak is making it a little more plausible.
 
pegjets

pegjets

Oh Canada
Apr 4, 2013
977
4
Points|11/4/2013|11/12/2013|11/20/2013|12/9/2013|1/14/2014|1/22/14|1/27/14
105|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%
104|99.9%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%|100%
103|99.9%|99.8%|99.5%|99.3%|100%|100%|100%
102|99.9%|99.5%|98.6%|97.7%|99.9%|100%|100%
101|99.6%|98.6%|96.8%|95.1%|99.6%|100%|100%
100|98.9%|96.6%|93.1%|90.0%|98.9%|99.8%|99.8%
99|97.3%|93.2%|86.5%|81.5%|97.3%|99.0%|99.5%
98|94.0%|87.1%|77.0%|70.2%|94.3%|97.6%|98.7%
97|88.2%|78.8%|65.0%|57.3%|89.3%|95.2%|96.2%
96|79.4%|67.5%|51.1%|43.4%|81.9%|90.0%|92.0%
95|--|--|--|--|--|83.0%|85.0%
94|--|--|--|--|--|72.3%|74.5%
93|--|--|--|--|--|60.2%|60.9%
92|--|--|--|--|--|46.7%|46.1%
91|--|--|--|--|--|33.5%|31.8%

Updated as of games tonight. We continue to see that playoff line drop.. right now 94 points has a 74.5% change of being the wildcard spot for the Jets. Personally, if I had to crystal ball it, I think we'll need 95 points to get there.

That means we need 20 wins from 28 games, or 18 wins with 4 OT losses (or a couple other combinations).

Winning 3 games out of every 4 would get us there. Losing a back to back would probably end our playoff hopes statistically. Losing to a conference opponent in the mix (ie Preds, Nucks, Yotes, Wild, Stars) would also almost be that final nail.

Still extremely unlikely, but stranger things have happened (see Jackets last year!).
 
alchemyindex

alchemyindex

vereor nox
Jan 20, 2013
2,864
16
Winnipeg
In comparison to the beginning of the season, the next two months don't have nearly as many games against really "heavy" opponents. I am not going to let myself get too hopefully, I'm just going to enjoy some good hockey!
 
truck

truck

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
10,992
1,583
www.arcticicehockey.com
Nerd stats suggest the Jets have the 6th most difficult remaining schedule - or did on the 13th. Thankfully most of the heavies came within the last week.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2014/1/13/score-adjusted-fenwick-and-remaining-strength-of-schedule

alchemyindex said:
In comparison to the beginning of the season, the next two months don't have nearly as many games against really "heavy" opponents. I am not going to let myself get too hopefully, I'm just going to enjoy some good hockey!
Click to expand...
 
winterpeg

winterpeg

Sharp Dressed Man
Feb 20, 2013
1,211
0
Winnipeg
truck said:
Nerd stats suggest the Jets have the 6th most difficult remaining schedule - or did on the 13th. Thankfully most of the heavies came within the last week.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2014/1/13/score-adjusted-fenwick-and-remaining-strength-of-schedule
Click to expand...

We also don't have to move many tenths of a point to get a LONG way to the easier side. I also bet that those three games against the ducks, sharks, and chicago were SERIOUSLY affecting the average.

I think you're right that our schedule is probably a lot easier on average now that we've just finished playing 3 of the top teams in the league in the last 4 games. Hopefully that's the case.
 

knorthern knight

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
4,120
0
GTA
Results including games played on Monday, Jan 27. I use points-per-game to sort, so games-in-hand can cause teams with fewer points to be ranked higher.

We need 9 consecutive wins to beat Minnesota's Points-Per-Game to get a wildcard spot. I'm now including the baseball-style Games-Behind-Wildcard in the main table. The number of games is relative to the team in the 2nd wildcard slot. Here are the numbers...

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr ||
CENTRAL ||||||
St Louis|51|75|1.471|121||
Chicago|54|76|1.407|115||
Colorado|52|71|1.365|112||
PACIFIC
Anaheim|54|83|1.537|126||
San Jose|53|74|1.396|114||
Los Angeles|54|66|1.222|100||
WILD CARD |||||| GBW
Vancouver|54|63|1.167|96||-0.5
Minnesota|54|62|1.148|94||0
Phoenix|52|58|1.115|91||1
Dallas|53|56|1.057|87||2.5
Winnipeg|54|55|1.019|84||3.5
Nashville|54|54|1|82||4
Calgary|52|43|0.827|68||8.5
Edmonton|55|40|0.727|60||11.5
 
ps241

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
Sponsor
Mar 10, 2010
34,895
31,337
knorthern knight said:
Results including games played on Monday, Jan 27. I use points-per-game to sort, so games-in-hand can cause teams with fewer points to be ranked higher.

We need 9 consecutive wins to beat Minnesota's Points-Per-Game to get a wildcard spot. I'm now including the baseball-style Games-Behind-Wildcard in the main table. The number of games is relative to the team in the 2nd wildcard slot. Here are the numbers...

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr ||
CENTRAL ||||||
St Louis|51|75|1.471|121||
Chicago|54|76|1.407|115||
Colorado|52|71|1.365|112||
PACIFIC
Anaheim|54|83|1.537|126||
San Jose|53|74|1.396|114||
Los Angeles|54|66|1.222|100||
WILD CARD |||||| GBW
Vancouver|54|63|1.167|96||-0.5
Minnesota|54|62|1.148|94||0
Phoenix|52|58|1.115|91||1
Dallas|53|56|1.057|87||2.5
Winnipeg|54|55|1.019|84||3.5
Nashville|54|54|1|82||4
Calgary|52|43|0.827|68||8.5
Edmonton|55|40|0.727|60||11.5
Click to expand...

So last season we are in the hunt and 3 teams we are racing with Caps, Isles, and Rangers all go on the mother of all runs at the same time over the last 15 games. perhaps this is the season we get the bounce back and the teams we are chasing all go in the tank ;)

I know it isn't looking great but how about starting with a clean 4 points on this home stand to make life a bit more interesting.
 

knorthern knight

Registered User
Mar 18, 2011
4,120
0
GTA
Results including games played on Monday, Feb 3rd. I use points-per-game to sort, so games-in-hand can cause teams with fewer points to be ranked higher. But Minnesota is in the tougher Central, so LA still gets a 3rd seed. Their worries are Phoenix and Vancouver.

We need 7 consecutive wins to beat Phoenix's Points-Per-Game to get a wildcard spot. I'm now including the baseball-style Games-Behind-Wildcard in the main table. The number of games is relative to the team in the 2nd wildcard slot. Here are the numbers...

Team | GP | Pts | PPG | Extr ||
CENTRAL ||||||
St Louis|54|79|1.463|120||
Chicago|58|82|1.414|116||
Colorado|55|77|1.4|115||
PACIFIC
Anaheim|58|85|1.466|120||
San Jose|57|76|1.333|109||
Los Angeles|58|66|1.138|93||
WILD CARD |||||| GBW
Minnesota|57|65|1.14|94||-0.5
Phoenix|55|62|1.127|92||0
Vancouver|57|63|1.105|91||0.5
Dallas|55|59|1.073|88||1.5
Nashville|57|59|1.035|85||2.5
Winnipeg|57|59|1.035|85||2.5
Calgary|55|49|0.891|73||6.5
Edmonton|58|44|0.759|62||10.5
 
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