How many points to make West playoffs 2013/2014?

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by knorthern knight, Nov 4, 2013.

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  1. knorthern knight

    knorthern knight Registered User

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    To avoid interfering with the 6/5 thread, I'm starting a separate one here. How many points do you think will be required to make the Western playoffs. Here are the results after Sunday Nov 3rd, with team, Games Played, Points, and extrapolating the current pace over 82 games.


    Note that St Louis has played 3 games fewer than Minnesota, so Minnesota should be a wild card, with St Louis as #2 or 3 seed. I've included LA for giggles. They're averaging 6 points every 5 games, and are out of it.

    Oh yeah, I selected 100 to 104
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2013
  2. theamazingchris

    theamazingchris Registered User

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    No team with 95-99 points has ever missed the playoffs, except one (I think). If the west is still this far ahead come the Olympic break, maybe this'll be a more contentious debate, but as of now there's still a lot of hockey to be played.
     
  3. pegjets

    pegjets Oh Canada

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    I don't think the population is big enough to extrapolate yet. But if we try, here are the numbers:

    105: guaranteed playoff spot
    104-102: statistically improbable not to make playoffs
    101: 99.6% chance
    100: 98.9% chance
    99: 97.3% chance
    98: 94.0% chance
    97: 88.2% chance
    96: 79.4% chance

    However it is just too premature to predict. Right now the west is doing very well against the east. Teams typically are not consistent through the first 15 games. Usually by about the 40 game mark, the point cutoff for the playoff is pretty evident.
     
  4. knorthern knight

    knorthern knight Registered User

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    Here are the results after Friday Nov 8th, with team, Games Played, Points, and extrapolating the current pace over 82 games. I have St Louis ahead of Chicago due to their games in hand. LA is averaging 5 points per 4 games (1.25 ppg) versus the hypothetical 6 per 5 (1.2 ppg). At 103 points they look to finish out of the playoffs!

    As for WInnipeg, things look grim. Minnesota, the 2nd wild card team has 22 points after 17 games, or 1.294 ppg. Winnipeg would have to win its next 11 games non-stop to get above Minnesota's current ppg average.

     
  5. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    Win % in the first 20 games has only about .4 correlation to the rest of the season.

    These things will likely occur:
    Strong teams will start losing unlucky bounces against bad teams (see SJS vs BUF).
    Teams that are on unsustainable rates will slow down (COL).
    Strong teams will eventually play more against each other... someone has to lose.
    Weak teams will eventually play more against each other... someone has to win.
    There probably won't be as many loser points that have been going on thus far.
     
  6. YWGinYYZ

    YWGinYYZ RIP Fugu

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    knorthern knight - the 6 in 5 to date is not hypothetical. It's an arbitrary measurement that some teams / coaches have used in the past and continue to use, as it breaks the season into small enough chunks that it can be discussed with the players, and allows the players to gauge their progress without scoreboard watching. Historically, it has resulted in a playoff spot.

    I'm finding the current pace of teams in the West fascinating, and I applaud you for tracking this as it's very interesting to see. I still think there's going to be regression, but who knows - maybe this new alignment will throw the historical perspective out the window.
     
  7. truck

    truck Registered User

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    Too many.
     
  8. KJF

    KJF Registered User

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    Jets are 7-9-2 right now, or .889 PTS/GP. As mentioned, the current playoff line is 1.294. Jets would need to win their next eleven games just to get to that line (18-9-2 = 1.310 PTS/GP).

    I know that line will probably come down, and tha Jets don't have to make up the ground all at once, but it's an indication of the hill they have to climb.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2013
  9. Stej

    Stej Registered User

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    If we can get through the next 2 games 1 and 1, the schedule on the whole really lightens up through the end of December IMO. Maybe the Jets can go on a run something like 14-7-2 and by the new year be in semi-decent shape (assuming some regression by some teams above us). We'd still be out of the playoff picture at 5 games above .500 but at least we'd be within reaching distance.

    Man, re-reading that paragraph makes me realize the size of the hole we're in. :(
     
  10. Andy6

    Andy6 Court Jetster

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    I just noticed a stat that might explain a few things ... the Jets have been hugely front-loaded with games against the West ... the top teams on our division are feasting on Eastern opponents that we haven't seen yet (and which, with our luck, will be playing much better when we do see them):

    Colorado 15 games 8 against the East (7-1-0 in those 8 games)
    Chicago 16 games 9 against the East (7-0-2)
    St. Louis 14 games 5 against the East (4-1-0)
    Minnesota 17 games 8 against the East (4-2-2)
    Nashville 16 games 4 against the East (3-1-0)
    Dallas 16 games 7 against the East (5-2-0)
    Winnipeg 18 games 4 against the East (2-1-1)

    So our division's record against the East is 32-8-5, but the Jets have had the smallest proportion of their games against the East so far (with Nashville close behind). We've played 22.5% of our games against the easy East while Colorado, Chicago, Dallas and Minnesota are around 50% each.

    The Jets play 4 of their next 6 games against the West as well. After that, the rest of the season from late November to the end is pretty even between East and West.
     
  11. SensibleGuy

    SensibleGuy Registered User

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    Sadly, we're already in a deep enough hole that digging ourselves out is essentially an insurmountable obstacle...
     
  12. Andy6

    Andy6 Court Jetster

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    Never say never. They can and they will. Possibly.
     
  13. Jet

    Jet Resident Whipping Boy

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    Just going by East vs. West record, it might be a touch higher than we expected, but the top 8 in the West won't all keep up this torrid pace. I voted 95-99. I think the 8th place team will need 96 points.
     
  14. SensibleGuy

    SensibleGuy Registered User

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    I hope so obviously, but I'm not sure there's much of a realistic possibility this team goes 40-24 for the remainder of the season and that's the sort of number they need to post to get there...
     
  15. truck

    truck Registered User

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    Would be tough for any team - let alone one that has has been as poor as the Jets most nights.

    They won't miss the playoffs by 33 points, but I gave up hope a couple weeks ago. Hope that proves to be a silly move, but not liking their chances.
     
  16. knorthern knight

    knorthern knight Registered User

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    Finally, a rational argument. OK, things might not be as bad as they look. After LA and Minnesota won, and Vancouver lost, Los Angeles is the team we need to catch, 11 straight wins. Weird part is that of the 14 teams in the West, all 4 Canadian teams are extrapolating out of the playoffs right now. Dallas and Nashville are the only US teams not in playoff spots right now. Bettman and NBC probably love it :rant:
     
  17. garret9

    garret9 AKA#VitoCorrelationi

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    Not sure how the other arguments are not rational?
     
  18. JetsHomer

    JetsHomer Registered User

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    37-20-7 to finish with 97 points and have a ~75% chance of making it. Not likely, but not impossible.
     
  19. KingBogo

    KingBogo Admitted Homer

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    36-21-7 for 95 points gives us +50% chance. Not likely, but I'm not willing to give up the dream in early November.
     
  20. SensibleGuy

    SensibleGuy Registered User

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  21. pegjets

    pegjets Oh Canada

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    Updated point predictions after today's game with comparative to last week:


    Odds have actually gone down this week due to western conference performance versus the east (i.e. west keeps winning). Still too early to predict, but consider that getting to 96 points (which currently is a 67.5% chance of making the playoffs) would require a 34-20-8 record for example, the Jets simply cannot be a .500 team and expect to make the playoffs. .500 hockey will get us around 85 points, which is only going to net you a 9th/10th draft pick.

    Any Jets fans wishing for the odds to get in our favour should be hoping for the east teams to pick up some wins, and not have 3 point games in the west.
     
  22. knorthern knight

    knorthern knight Registered User

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    Results including games played on Tuesday, Nov 12. I use points-per-game to sort, so games-in-hand can cause teams with fewer points to be ranked higher. With our current humble winning streak, plus LA's loss in overtime, we're down to needing "only" 8 more consecutive wins to match their percentage. LA currently holds the last wild card position. Those shootout wins are OK for the 2 points, but they don't help our ROW tie-breaker. We cannot afford to be "tied" for a spot. BTW, Vancouver is averaging 6 points per 5 games, and extrapolates to finish 7 points out of the playoffs :help:

     
  23. theamazingchris

    theamazingchris Registered User

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    Look, if you think this year 6 teams in the west will finish higher than the President's Trophy winners since the lockout, that's fine, but at least admit it's pushing it a bit to assume that is in any way likely.
     
  24. Johnny HFBOARDS

    Johnny HFBOARDS Trade you!

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    Now that there is no real chance to make the play-offs the Jehts will play good enough to make it close, typical :(
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2013
  25. meedle

    meedle Registered User

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    Actually I was thinking about it earlier. Didn't we see the same show last year? Weren't they like 2nd last at some point last year and then got on a run and then were in a playoff spot for a few weeks then finally bowing out playing catch up during the last month?

    I mean anything is possible and their schedule does soften but they need alot of wins. I just hate them being that inbetween team tbh. I want either them to make the playoffs or to suck so bad that they get a good pick. Coming in 9th is such a waste and doesn't do enough to build to the future.
     

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